The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
Lars Von Trier says:
“Albo winning with -14 net popularity?”
So it seems …
If the current primary votes , occurred on election Day
3% swing to Labor , 6.5% swing against lib/nats
It’s Time says:
“Is anyone starting to think that the MSM might not be as influential as it likes to think it is?”
Queenslanders have been thinking that for a long time.
Despite the hyperbolic hysterics of the Courier-Fail, Labor has won 11 of the 12 State elections since the end of the Joh era.
C@tmomma says:
“I wonder what PK will have to say tomorrow morning?”
Last week PK breathlessly declared that “Labor’s primary vote has fallen four points in a week” — but Newspoll had it down by just one point.
Those pesky facts, eh?
I don’t believe the Courier Mail were rabidly agitating for change during the Beattie years. Correct me if they were.
So the People are not being sucked in by the media’s anti Labor rhetoric.
Nor by the Morris Conman.
Oliver Sutton @ #154 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 3:43 am
I bet she sounds really glum today. 🙂
Lachlan @ #146 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 2:06 am
Thank you for your contribution. Do come again. 😀
good post upnorth @11.18 – a tactical retreat from News Ltd is likely once they figure out once and for all Scotty can’t be saved, probably not even by his own flock
What’s not understood by many is the demoralising effect the News Ltd pile-ons have on their own reporters. Day it, day out in Qld they wage war against Prem Palasczczuk, for the most part over nothing, yet she keeps increasing her margin election after election. Believe me, the futility of what they’re doing eats away at them
Have long been predicting a Labor majority (I think circa 78-82 seats) and like many am licking my chops at the prospect of “$1 trillion Josh” losing his seat. However I would urge caution to those who think Dutts is in any danger in Dickson – he isn’t.
Full credit to Greg Hunt for seeing the writing on the wall and getting the hell out….
https://www.smh.com.au/national/push-to-donate-covid-19-vaccines-and-expand-eligibility-as-shots-expire-20220414-p5adg9.html
You rarely hear from the health minister anymore (do we even have a health minister?), and when was the last time the prime minister called for people to get boosted? Or for children aged 5-11 years to get vaccinated?
Ditto with the NSW mob.
It’s hard to believe but I spoke to someone last week and they didn’t even realise you could get vaccinated at a Pharmacy!
The Newspoll result should calm the farm for a few people. But Labor needs to get its head out of its ass in the campaign and Albanese needs to lift his game. With school holidays coming to an end this week people will start tuning back into politics so Albo needs to be sharp and on message.
C@t:
And there is apparent confusion about whether you need the regular flu shot if you’ve had the Covid vaccine. I’ve had several people at work scoff at the free flu shot work offers saying they don’t need it because they’re fully vaxxed for Covid!
Peter Hartcher is ‘Not Happy, Marise!’ It seems like another failure on Scott Morrison’s watch:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/australia-s-lifeline-to-the-us-the-stakes-in-solomon-islands-are-exceptionally-high-20220418-p5ae43.html
Can we hurry up and get the election over with already so Penny Wong can deal with this!?! The current lot are criminally negligent!
“ Last week PK breathlessly declared that “Labor’s primary vote has fallen four points in a week” — but Newspoll had it down by just one point.”
Five points in four or five weeks doesn’t sound great either.
Really the thing that is propping Labor up is the stubborn refusal of the Liberal primary to increase. Should they underestimate the Liberal primary again this will have a fairly substantial effect on the election.
Well that’s somewhat of an improvement to wake up to after Sunday’s poll. Pity it occurred after I copped such a shellacking that night when I had nothing to fire back to my neighbours. This might take some of that wind back out of their sails for next weekend if the other polls are also somewhat positive.
That was an atrocious attack by the media last week so in that context I think Albo and team would be somewhat relieved. Between them I imagine Morrison and the media might be a little disappointed.
Will do Addie – it was my confusion coming out in the thread not an attack on you. I am sure you would have been a great Scout and not as defensive as this one!
Some good numbers, long way to go.
“ Five points in four or five weeks doesn’t sound great either.”
Indeed it doesn’t, Itep.
But that statement — in stark contrast to PK’s — has the merit of actually being true.
WB on RN now
A cameo from William Bowe on RN Breakfast.
Have to laugh the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units , claiming no major party will govern by its own
Lib/nats combined primary vote of 35% = 22+ seat lost
Yes Labor will not gain all the seats off Lib/nats, they will gain enough for a majority government
Did you see that tightening?
Absolutely, nothing!
Teals/Greens up – fossil fuel cartel down.
Hanging around Dopey Dan from Hunter wasn’t the brightest move for Albo. The ALP brains trust are lacking in the brains Dept.
Freya Starksays:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 2:10 am
KD in Warringah is still a masterstroke of a captain’s pick. She won’t win, but she may well pick up Labor seats in Hunter, Lilley, Blair, Gilmore, Macquarie for the Liberals. Trent Zimmerman is correct to want her to stand down because she does reduce his chances of re-election. But termporarily losing an upper-class seat to a Teal is not nearly as much a loss as winning a rust-belt seat permanently off Labor.
______________________
Temporarily….like Warringah I guess you mean.
There is the small issue of winning a ‘rust belt’ (bizzare use of a US phrase in an Australian context) first of course.
Every person I’ve spoken to since the campaign started, when I’ve bought this up and asked if they are worried about a ‘plague of transgender males’ playing women’s netball they have conceded that it’s not something they’ve been worried about up until now but asking that one question of them has made them realise how stupid it is. In context I live in the 3rd most conservative seat in the country. Now let’s about ‘rust belt’ with LNP pork barrelling not reaching here. That is cutting way deeper in people’s minds.
Master-stroke indeed…
Freya Stark is proposing that there could be a future realignment in which working people live in generally safe Coalition seats, whereas business people live in the marginal seats which decide the election. This would be a strange and bizarre new world. The implication is that neither party would compete for the votes of workers – instead, the Coalition would represent them and try to attract business people into a plan to work together. I can’t see how such a political system would be stable. It is as Paul Keating said – always back self-interest. There just isn’t self-interest on the reactionary side of the culture wars. But mortgages and rent payments somehow concentrate one’s mind on one’s economic circumstances.
It’s more likely that we are watching a shake-up in which more, not less, seats are becoming competitive. But I do think it’s within the bounds of plausibility that we will have another 20+ year non-Labor government after the next period of Labor government, but that non-Labor government will look more like Teals and Farmer-Nationals serving the national interest with a broad base than Morrisonite Liberals and Joycite Coal-Nationals serving ideological interests with a narrow base. And I think there are other futures more plausible than that.
Coming into this election campaign
Since the Lib/nats won government in 2013
Lib/nats combined primary vote fallen from 45.5% (2013) – 41.5% (2019)
Lost of 16 seats – 91 seats (2013) – currently 75(2022)
Labor primary vote remain stable 33% (2013) – 33% (2019)
Gain of 13 seats -55 seats (2013) – currently 68 (2022)
It simple what the trend shows
Lib/nats combined primary vote declines – Lib/nats will lose seats
Labor primary vote increases Labor will gain seats
If the opinion polls are anywhere near accurate that Lib/nats or Labor will not reach 40%
Unless Labor primary vote decreases – Labor will still gain seats
Freya asked if the Courier was rabidly agitating for change during Beatties rule. They were agitating but perhaps not rabidly. Around the time of Cando Newman – 2012 was when I could no longer read it RM I think had the editor removed and replaced with a more partisan operator. The things they had relentlessly pinged Beattie on were no longer an issue under the LNP ( WTF!!!) I know the CM is/ was conservative but it used to be relatively fair. It became part of Murdoch’s topsy turvey world where black is white and up is down. The venerable is right of centre 160 year old newspaper could fold and disappear for all I care. Well done to the nonagenarian philistine in NY.
Wow! Michael West expresses some strong opinions in the article of his that Facebook has banned, but wow: Hate Speech?
Before the horses that Freya Stark let loose have bolted, may I just bring a dose of reality back to the discussion?
Most of those heavily religious-populated Labor seats, which voted against SSM and are being targeted by the false prophet Morrison, went on to back Labor again in the 2019 federal election. There’s obviously more to winning these seats than an appeal to any sort of innate religious bigotry.
For example, the people in those seats wouldn’t have forgotten already how shabbily they were treated by Berejiklian and Morrison during the pandemic.
So, valiant effort by Freya Stark to try and get us to believe that putting the ventriloquist’s dummy, Katherine Deves, up in Warringah to speak to the voters in the religious Western Suburbs of Sydney, but I don’t think they’re going to fall for it.
Not to mention the ‘canny’ side benefit of Morrison enabling the gay guy in North Sydney, Trent Zimmerman to be defeated as a result of the backlash by his constituents. I don’t think that’s going to happen either.
Hmmm – “language commonly used insults for certain groups of people”.
So, Murdoch “journalists” need to be protected against being called “Murdoch lackeys”?
Working people will return to Labor eventually as the Coalition do not represent their interests, as much as they purport to. This doesn’t mean that Labor don’t need to fight for their votes, though, and it would be good to ensure they have more genuinely working people as represented in the Parliament.
Matt Kean, prominent NSW Moderate, on RN just now
– setting targets for women in NSW quangos
– repeats that Deves should be disendorsed
– ‘does not reflect the views of the Liberal Party’
– lists out a laundry list of outrageous statements she has made
– ‘what business is it if mine, or anyone else to tell people how they should live’
– going really hard on this
Matt Kean
‘Recent and consistent statements by Deves- not something at uni 20 years ago’
– ‘there is no place for this bigotry in the Liberal Party’
– says Trent Zimmerman is his mentor
– the vetting process has let down the party
– now onto the Morrison bastardry over preselections
– ‘this person is not fit for office’
Freya Stark
“ But termporarily losing an upper-class seat to a Teal is not nearly as much a loss as winning a rust-belt seat permanently off Labor.”
If as you say this Captain’s pick Deves is a master stroke then it says much about Morrison’s judgement and intellectual capacity. It’s just a really dumb decision and your logic simply attempts to defend that indefensible position. Not even Lib colleagues support it. After all, those seats may be lost for a long time.
Since those in the media Claim newspoll is the opinion poll what you should take notice of
Has the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media hacks explained why there has been no bounce to the lib/nats and why the Lib/nats combined primary vote decreased
cady
“ However I would urge caution to those who think Dutts is in any danger in Dickson – he isn’t.”
Yep, a point I’ve made a couple of times.
On the subject of Trent Zimmerman, how’s Kylea Tink going in North Sydney?
Scott – no you will not get a response from newsltd etc just more attacks on Albanese
Scout says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 7:11 am
Scott – no you will not get a response from newsltd etc just more attacks on Albanese
—————————–
Agree with you
also it will show the newsltd hacks just dont get it they are predictable , people were expecting this attack on Labor/Albanese
No matter what Labor/Albanese did on day 1 and on wards
Dickson
PD : state PV Lib -6% + 2019 PV 46% = 40%
AF : state PV Lab +6% + 2019 PV 31% = 37%
‘this person is not fit for office’
This statement also applies to Scott Morrison, Katherine Deves’ puppet master.
Scary part for the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units will be
Voters will start to show more interest in the campaign and see who has the policies what people are interest in
All what it seems the lib/nats have – More corrupt like behaviour – Make trouble for Australia ,causing fights with China , – look at the boats (outdated by over 10 years). lib/nats have no policies to fix their mess on how to try to improve cost of living and people lives generally
The problem for the Pentecostal with the glass jaw and his Health Minister in promoting and encouraging vaccination is that it revisits the Pandemic and the disaster which has been acquiring vaccine, distributing same and the fiasco which was the availability of rapid tests (which as the front line in interrupting the spread of this virus during a pandemic post vaccination should be free to all Australians )
Don’t mention the Pandemic
Learn to live alongside the virus to grow the economy
Specifically the funeral business (courtesy of decreasing numbers in Aged Care where the virus has killed the numbers it has killed due to Federal government mismanagement – refer the Royal Commission The industry was not prepared for any disease let alone a pandemic)
Can do capitalism, hey?
With no Federal government audit
Hopefully the white washing by the pm and his media does not succeed
The deaths in Victoria were exclusively in privately run facilities – not State run facilities
Joe and feeding the chooks anyone?
Identity scam scuppered when country postie ‘smelled a rat’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/identity-scam-scuppered-when-country-postie-smelled-a-rat
Like I have noted before..this government have set up their cronie mates to pilfer the NDIS purse at the expense of clients.
OH attended a meeting with Bill & this is a first order issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-promises-review-of-national-disability-insurance-scheme-crackdown-on-rorting-20220418-p5ae59.html
I take on board and respect AEs concerns regarding economic narratives and this may yet be a factor but if Albanese can keep JC on board but not as a shadow this could turn out ok. Chalmers runs rings around” Frythebudget” , he gives me a lot of confidence. My feeling about the Libs is that all they’ve got is the prosperity religion phoney who most find an irksome windbag. Who else have they got? Anne Ruston -who looks to be from the Prue Goward school, Others they are keeping from talking are ministers who spent the last three years chasing the young women about like the end of a Benny Hill episode, the red headed woman who makes queen Victoria look jolly by comparison, Michaela who seems to be off star trek, Dutton is a drag on their vote (they obviously like him in Dickson though – go figure?) Even Frydenberg has gone to ground. Considering the ABC insiders journo had said breathlessly they would be using frydo in the inner seats and Scomoe in the other tradie seats which was to the ABC panel akin to superman and Spiderman teaming up against the dangerous Albo, this is incomprehensible. This last week is no surprise to me Albo is not a slick presenter the thing that’s surprised me is that even with all of the Media’s support Scomoe is floundering and this one eyed support might prove to be to his detriment as it’s making him feel he is hitting the right notes when he is not.
pukka says:
“Dickson
PD : state PV Lib -6% + 2019 PV 46% = 40%
AF : state PV Lab +6% + 2019 PV 31% = 37%”
And if the Greens were to again score 10%, flowing 2% to Dutton and 8% to France:
PD: 42%
AF: 45%
‘If’ being the operative word, of course.
Does anyone else follow the Morning Consult Global Leader Approval ratings? I won’t link it for fear of being sent to spamland. It seems to be done almost daily at normal times, although the most recent reading is from the 12 April (do they delay/batch updates? or is it a consequence of easter?). The data is so nicely mirrored around some value just slightly less than 50% that I wonder if it can be used as a proxy-2PP (presumably with some dampener rather than at face value). In any case, there was no sign of a change in approval on the reading of the 12th, when Albo made The Gaffe, and if anything there was a budget un-bounce, with approval returning to normal from a momentary plateau. But the worsening trend (for the government) looks like it’s stopped over the last few months.
From The Kouk..
Federal election betting:
Big flows, lots of volatility in last few days.
Labor back with its nose in front:
Labor $1.92
Coalition $2.04
$2.87 million in matched bets
Via @Betfair_Aus
I see Observer has re-badged himself as Here We Go Again.
The Pentecostal with a glass jaw jibe is a dead give away.