Resolve Strategic: Coalition 35, Labor 34, Greens 11

The first campaign poll shows the scars of Labor’s troubled first week, but still suggests they lead on two-party preferred.

The Age/Herald has the first poll conducted during the campaign period, from Resolve Strategic, which finds the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 35%, Labor down four to 34%, the Greens steady on 11%, One Nation up two to 4% (the accompanying report notes that part of the increase is down to rounding) and the United Australia Party up one to 4%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party results, but this pans out at 52-48 to Labor when preference flows from 2019 applied.

With Resolve Strategic providing state breakdowns only for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the damage is distinctly concentrated in its “rest of Australia”, with the Coalition up six to 36% and Labor down fully ten points to 37%, although it was more the previous result that was the anomaly than this one. Similarly, dramatic change on the gender breakdowns reflects an unusual result last time when the Coalition did better among women than men. I would estimate the current poll’s two-party results as 50.6-49.4 to the Coalition among men and 54.2-45.8 to Labor among women.

On personal ratings, positive movement for Scott Morrison (up five on approval to 44% and down six on disapproval to 47%) is greater than negative movement for Anthony Albanese (down three on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 44%). Resolve Strategic’s leadership rating questions unusually ask how the leader has performed “in recent weeks”. Scott Morrison has opened up a 38-30 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 37-36 last time.

The accompanying report reveals that 27% rate themselves uncommitted, up from 21% a fortnight ago. Many of these would presumably have ended up being allocated through a follow-up question asking to which party they were leaning (Resolve Strategic’s non-membership of the Australian Polling Council, which imposes transparency standards on its members, means this cannot be known for sure). (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that this refers to the pollster’s “how firm are you with your vote” question, which directs respondents to identify as either committed or uncommitted. Resolve Strategic does not provide respondents with an option to identify as uncommitted and have their result counted in the survey, which critics say inflates the non-major party results.) The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1404.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 35, Labor 34, Greens 11”

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  1. Aaron Newton
    Things have to be investigated to establish if there is any wrongdoing before the courts get involved. A Federal ICAC with the powers to demand appearances and sworn testimony plus access to any documents and electronic records is requited to get to the bottom of corruption. Then the person or persons get their day in court if they are charged with a crime. The penalities need to include prison sentences.

    You cannot fight and eradicate corruption with a paper tiger. The Commission needs real teeth and needs send shivers of fear down the backs of the corrupt.

    Corruption is to our governments and businesses is as sepsis to a finger. It may start out as a small boil but end up costing an arm to gangrene.
    The only way to treat it by then is to cut the limb off.

  2. 3 years Ago

    News The Facts Brian Fisher’s Modelling: What’s The Story?

    Fossil fuel industry consultant Brian Fisher has released so-called “independent” modelling looking at the economic cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but his research is deeply flawed?

    5 months ago…

    The economist whose work the Coalition used to slam Labor’s climate change policy in the 2019 election has been paid about $100,000 to review the federal government’s new modelling of the economic impact of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
    Dr. Fisher’s findings were vigorously denied by Labor and disputed by a range of economic and energy experts.

    ANU professor Frank Jotzo said in 2019 that Dr Fisher’s work had used “absurd cost assumptions” about the costs of emissions reduction and Professor Warwick McKibbin said the carbon price forecast he used was “way too high” and a “factor of ten” more than his own work.

    Good to see the corrupt Morrison Gov use Tax Payers money to get his fake reports

  3. And exactly where are The Greens going to get the workforce to build these one million homes, and where are they going to put them?

    I want all house-buying and rental subsidies scrapped and put into building state-owned rental housing too, but I might as well promise to build 20 million homes in the next ten years. I no flocking idea how to go about it (the Tooth Fairy might help put. I hear she is into real estate) but hey, I can say it!

  4. Who survives on $40- a week?

    Mind you the austerity obsessed, get a job Coalition would have that as their objective

    The confirmation is job keeper, who got the support and who missed out

    And Stokes and his media owning buddies highlight the booing of the Opposition Leader

    Simply politicians are booed at any public event – even the Pentecostal with the glass jaw at the Warne memorial service


    We need diversity of ownership and an independent national carrier (so the Board selected as was the Arbitration Commission once upon a time – alternate selections from both sides of parliament to ensure balance between capital and labour)

  5. So I just watched the News Break on Channel 9 after Lego Masters and they focused on Labor attacking Scott Morrison’s character.

    That’s an improvement of sorts.

  6. [‘Embattled Liberal candidate for Warringah Katherine Deves has declared she is “not going anywhere” and lashed her critics for “vile” bullying after more of her inflammatory comments on transgender issues were unearthed and Liberals lobbied privately to dump her.

    “My opponents, parts of the left media and twittersphere have been unrelenting in calling for me to be disendorsed because of past statements,” she wrote in an email to party members on Monday evening which was obtained by the Herald and The Age. “I have been bullied in the most vile way and received death threats. I’m not going anywhere, as the prime minister said yesterday.”

    Katherine Deves hid from journalists by being driven straight into a garage for a party fundraiser on Monday.

    On Monday, Deves attended a $65-a-head fundraiser at the Mosman home of Liberal Party member Michelle Verbloot, where she went to extraordinary lengths to hide from the Herald and The Age’s reporter and photographer.

    Three cars were moved from the home’s driveway so Deves could be driven straight into the garage; she remained in the vehicle’s back seat until the roller door was closed. NSW Liberal Party vice-president Mary-Lou Jarvis attended the fundraiser but declined to comment.’] – SMH

    While no one should receive death threats, Deves’ transphobic comments
    were offensive and her subsequent apologies mean next to nothing. In at least a related issue, Warringah recorded a 75% “yes” vote in the same-sex plebiscite, placing it in 8th position nationally. Accordingly, the question begs, why did Morrison & Co personally pick her, as even in the absence of her transphobia, she has Buckley’s chance of beating Steggall. I think it goes to Morrison sending a less than implicit signal to his base, and also to those Western Sydney electorates that voted against SSM – Chifley, Parramatta, Fowler, Werriwa, McMahon, Watson, and Blaxland*. My hunch is that she’ll withdraw from the race sooner than later.


  7. It’s Time @ #1193 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 9:01 pm

    sprocket_ @ #1190 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 8:55 pm

    From guardian journo…

    Am hearing Coalition has dropped a big climate and energy scare campaign to @australian and @dailytelegraph (etc)… let’s see if it is any different from the tosh they served up last time with dodgy modelling of climate costs. #AusVotes22  #auspol  #ausvotes 

    Back to the future with $200 lamb roasts?

    So who’s going to believe them!?!

    Plus, this time Labor have Chris Bowen (yes, I know prejudice central will rear its ugly head just at the mere mention of his name), to go on the attack about it. And he knows his biscuits.

  8. From the Aus:

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian found Labor’s first preference support had fallen to 36 per cent, down one point from the previous poll a week ago, while the Coalition’s primary vote also declined one point to 35 per cent.

  9. Big drop in approval and jump in disapproval for Albanese. PPM 44/37 (-2) which is still very respectable given PPM skews towards incumbent.

  10. So, lots of smoke being blown up each other’s arses by the esteemed Press Gallery results in absolutely nothing in Newspoll.

    Maybe, just maybe we are going to see a Federal election that follows the state pattern of the media being arseholes to the ALP for no benefit to the Coalition.

  11. Primary votes:

    L/NP 35 (-1) ALP 36 (-1) GRN 12 (+2) PHON 4 (+1) UAP 4 (0)

    So movement is among left and right parties respectively. Albanese approval is disastrous tho.

  12. From the Oz (Simon Benson):

    “On these numbers alone, it is hard to see how Albanese could win an election.

    But based on the more important voter intention numbers, it is equally hard to see how the Coalition could win with a primary vote of 35 per cent.

    The difficult reality is that people appeared to have decided that it is time for a change of government, just as Albanese had made himself unelectable.

    This has led to a deep frustration within the electorate.”

  13. Greens +2 is quite possibly a function of “Google it, mate”. Best publicity Bandt’s had since he became leader.

  14. hazza4257says:
    Monday, April 18, 2022 at 9:39 pm
    Newspoll unchanged at 53-47.

    Thank fuck for that

    I hope this puts a break on doom sayings amongst Labor supportes for the time being.

  15. You have to assume that previously of those responding “approve” or “disapprove” (vs don’t know) on Albanese – even some of them were making an educated guess one way or the other.

    Now they are paying attention and he is getting more coverage, they don’t like what they see. All his bad mannerisms (from a media perspective) have flared up under the pressure of the campaign.

  16. I’m so pleased the lamestream media’s efforts to paint Labor’s first week as a disaster have been rewarded with a monstrous shift in support towards the govt, as revealed in the latest Newspoll…oh, wait!

    BTW, when the previous Newspoll came in at the same 2PP, I posed the question as to whether the ‘narrowing’ from 56/44 to 53/47 represented 1) a blip; 2) a reversion to mean (late 2021 most Newspolls were 53/47); or 3) the beginning of a bad trend for Labor.

    The first provisional answer – of many (so as not to make assumptions/tempt fate etc) – is 2).

  17. Albanese’s approval ratings aren’t disastrous in the context of Morrison’s similarly low numbers, but he needs to improve. Labor’s best strategy at this point I think is to focus on the failings of the Morrison government and have Chalmers or Gallagher on hand for any questions involving numbers.

  18. Surprise surprise Jane Norman ABC news full of Albo being booed at Bluesfest – totally contradicted by reports that have circulated ALL DAY LONG including from Jimmy Barnes who confirmed he was well received.

    There were a few anti-vax nutters down the front who booed a bit but overwhelmingly he was welcomed.

    Thanks Jane for your ‘services’ to the LNP.

  19. Here We Go Again
    I have come to the conclusion that the right-wing parties of Australia and its enablers really want the ‘non-productive’, i.e. anyone who does not generate money they can suck up, to die off as soon as possible. I believe they envy the USA where the poor can be neglected and left to die. For example, their commercialised private health care results in the poor dying before their time because they cannot afford health care, hospitalisations or pharmaceuticals. The disadvantaged have little access to quality food or healthy living conditions. If they turn to crime to live, they end up in the private and profitable prison system. Unless they are black and so get murdered by the cops, on the streets.

    The Covid pandemic was, in my opinion, seen as a good opportunity to let the sick, elderly, disabled, and poor get wiped out. That was supposed to leave the well-off to enjoy the wealth and a desperate, fit, and younger workforce to produce the profits for the upper echelons to enjoy. The narcissistic sociopaths running nations must be exceedingly disappointed that the Covid19 broom did not sweep up all the ‘leaners’ despite a concerted effort to allow the spread of the virus across and within countries. In Australia, the strategy could be said to be partially successful in clearing out the old and sick from nursing homes.

    The right-wing Liberal Party of Australia reduces Medicare at every chance, has defunded and screwed up the NDIS, allowed the rape and plunder of our national heritage aka the environment, introduced harsh programs that drive people to suicide (Robodebt), left in the lurch the victims of huge national disasters, defunded Domestic Violence Services and held welfare payments at starvation levels. And that is just the tip of the iceberg. My opinion of them is very, very low.

    Is there a word for the attempted eradication of a whole class of people, classicide?

  20. Lars,
    Dai Le has to run as an independent in Fowler – she was suspended from the Liberal party in 2016 for 10 years (See below).

    I hope no one got sucked in by Lars link to her funding page and parted with good money. Lars says she says she is a “true” independent. However, she is still strongly linked to the Liberal party, on policies and the people she supports.

    Fairfield councillor Dai Le has been suspended from the Liberal Party for 10 years after she announced she would run for mayor against the endorsed party candidate.

    After failing to secure preselection on the Liberal Party’s ticket for the September election, Cr Le has put together an independent team, including former Liberal MP Andrew Rohan and councillor Charbel Saliba.

    This is offensive to independents like Allegra Spender etc., who are upfront about their links to the Liberal party, but who are standing to opposite the hard right takeover of their party.

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