The Age/Herald has the first poll conducted during the campaign period, from Resolve Strategic, which finds the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 35%, Labor down four to 34%, the Greens steady on 11%, One Nation up two to 4% (the accompanying report notes that part of the increase is down to rounding) and the United Australia Party up one to 4%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party results, but this pans out at 52-48 to Labor when preference flows from 2019 applied.
With Resolve Strategic providing state breakdowns only for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the damage is distinctly concentrated in its “rest of Australia”, with the Coalition up six to 36% and Labor down fully ten points to 37%, although it was more the previous result that was the anomaly than this one. Similarly, dramatic change on the gender breakdowns reflects an unusual result last time when the Coalition did better among women than men. I would estimate the current poll’s two-party results as 50.6-49.4 to the Coalition among men and 54.2-45.8 to Labor among women.
On personal ratings, positive movement for Scott Morrison (up five on approval to 44% and down six on disapproval to 47%) is greater than negative movement for Anthony Albanese (down three on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 44%). Resolve Strategic’s leadership rating questions unusually ask how the leader has performed “in recent weeks”. Scott Morrison has opened up a 38-30 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 37-36 last time.
The accompanying report reveals that 27% rate themselves uncommitted, up from 21% a fortnight ago. Many of these would presumably have ended up being allocated through a follow-up question asking to which party they were leaning (Resolve Strategic’s non-membership of the Australian Polling Council, which imposes transparency standards on its members, means this cannot be known for sure). (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that this refers to the pollster’s “how firm are you with your vote” question, which directs respondents to identify as either committed or uncommitted. Resolve Strategic does not provide respondents with an option to identify as uncommitted and have their result counted in the survey, which critics say inflates the non-major party results.) The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1404.
Griff, you might be onto something with the narcissistic MO and the 20-somethings on ScoMo’s media bus. They appear besotted.
The quality of its crooks, hey nath. Something for Melbourne to be truly proud of.
Oquist and Hanson-Young were married just a kilometre away from me at Lobethal Road Winery. He seems to be a nice sort of guy.
SHY is great value. That video of her laughing at hate emails was tremendous. Terrific SOH.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:29 pm
The quality of its crooks, hey nath. Something for Melbourne to be truly proud of.
___________
Just better across the board. Apart from beaches and Opera Houses.
Who the f…k is this new Scout???
I’ve been on this blog for about a decade on and off and suddenly there is another Scout pointing out grammatical errors:
That is not me!!!
Ben Oquist was chief of staff to Bob Brown when he first got into the Senate. A cannier operative you would not find.
Scout says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:31 pm
Who the f…k is this new Scout???
I’ve been on this blog for about a decade on and off and suddenly there is another Scout pointing out grammatical errors:
That is not me!!!
______
You have been slipping and a void was created and then subsequently filled.
I would have thought the design of the blog would automatically bar 2 identical user names.
Oh Nathy is claiming another non de plume?
typical
alias @ #1159 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 8:34 pm
You would think.
I’m going to blame all the incorrect posts on the other ltep too.
Scout says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:35 pm
Oh Nathy is claiming another non de plume?
typical
_____
Not at all. Is this Scout1 or Scout2 by the way?
nath @ #1163 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 8:35 pm
Yep which one is the blow-in?
JoJo, sorry, but anti-Labor warrior Joe Hildebrand has confirmed that Albo had 100% studied up on those and other important economic facts.
Steelydan @ #1063 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 5:23 pm
s/be
… do not understand that I agree with her.
Zimmermann is obvious having no issues with it after his call for her to be dumped.
would hope the design of the blog would do so – have to put in my email address each time I post.
To be honest it is quite disconcerting.
Scout says:
To be honest it is quite disconcerting.
________________
Labor supporters lacking intestinal fortitude lately. They might fold under questioning.
There were/are 2 Scott
The last time i seen the other one was in the S.A election thread
Ugh jojo, another waste of time dressing itself up in another waste of skin. It is clearly another poster here making up a new persona to try and change a narrative. Find another fkn hobby ffs.
Sohar @ #1122 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 6:03 pm
One syllable add -est, with the fun exception of fun.
Two syllables ending in y, y becomes i and add -est.
Other adjectives add most before the adjective. 😆
Annabel Crabb
Why Oh Why.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-18/election-2022-morrison-albanese-back-to-the-future/100997488
crawl back under your hole nathy-get a life.
My most recent posting has been in support of Adam Bandt.
Get stuffed, you nasty piece of work.
@Scout
‘Who the f…k is this new Scout???
That is not me!!!’
Okay, Scout, you keep the name. I’ve switched to Addie.
Now does anyone have an issue with THAT name?!
Scout says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:44 pm
crawl back under your hole nathy-get a life.
Get stuffed, you nasty piece of work.
_________________
You are a very sensitive soul. My apologies for turning over your shell.
Scott @ #1169 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 8:41 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdTy1j7z-K4
I can’t figure out how to embed a tweet so I’m doing copy and paste it. This tweet was in reply to a Canberra Times article that asserted that Albo “gatecrashed” the Bluesfest. Journo’s tweet of her article got ratioed badly.
Daisy – Truth Teller
@LNPTruthLibrary
Jimmy Barnes is a well known life Long Labor supporter and known Albanese supporter. Barnes invited Albanese on stage. Why would you mislead the public by stating he gate crashed the event? Are you in year 8 & cannot be bothered doing your homework for the assignment?
Charles – I stand corrected!
sprocket_ @ #1116 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 7:57 pm
That’s a name from the past. Last I heard Ruawake was very ill. Good to know he’s still with us.
Addie says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:46 pm
Okay, Scout, you keep the name. I’ve switched to Addie.
Now does anyone have an issue with THAT name?!
___________
Thanks Addie, that was very mature of you. You clearly are not a Scout.
Grime,
Why oh why would you read what Annabel Crabb’s writing. It’s never good.
welcome Addie – was confused!
Nothing about being sensitive nathy – just pointing out the obvious, you are a nasty piece of work.
south @ #1182 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 8:49 pm
Speaking for yourself.
Scout says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:50 pm
Nothing about being sensitive nathy – just pointing out the obvious, you are a nasty piece of work.
_________
We all have our moments Scout. But overall I think I’m delightful.
”
Cronussays:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 5:39 pm
Ven
And Australia in Pakistan 2022.
”
Nah. Australia always dominated Pakistan in Pakistan.
1st Test – boring draw with a pile of runs from both sides
2nd Test- Australia almost won the test match. Pakistan barely survived a draw
3rd Test – Australia comfortably won the test match.
Whereas in India -Australia test series in Australia
Australia dominated 1st Test match and won it so easily that pundits written India off for the entire series.
India won 2nd test match in Melbourne after their captain and main batsman Kohli returned home and the new captain lead from front by scoring a century.
Then India eked out a draw in 3rd Test match after its team was decimated with injuries and both batsmen who batted out time were severely injured and batted in severe agony and couldn’t play next test match.
In the Brisbane fortress, according to commentators Indian team was fielding their 3rd 11 after being decimated by injuries. Then they famously went on to win that test match considered the best test match win by a touring team to Australia.
One syllable add -est, with the fun exception of fun.
Two syllables ending in y, y becomes i and add -est.
Other adjectives add most before the adjective.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga,
You’re forgetting some recent evolution of the language:
“Cool as”, “Fun as”, etc
JoJo:
First of all, I am not attempting to bully you off the blog, regardless of what our lord and master thinks.
Secondly, I also don’t think it was a brain fade. Frankly, I’ve seen Albo interviewed a hundred times. Ive seen him speak in public a hundred times or more. I’ve never seen him perform so poorly.
That said, the ‘gaffs’ were neither brain fades, of due to lack of preparation, or lack of knowledge. They were simple memory blanks. It happens. No matter how good, how knowledgeable or how prepared you are.
What is most telling in my view – regardless of your silly take on this (I mean, FFS – drawing upon Caleb Fucking Bond for validation isn’t exactly … from the top draw, is it?) – is how he coped with the memory blanks. Not. very. well. In that regard, of all people, Steamy made some telling points earlier this afternoon.
This should all be grist for the mill, and yesterday’s news but for two points: firstly, the agenda of the prestitutes and secondly, IMO the bigger story – what I spent yesterday banging on about on this blog: the lack of a concise and clear economic narrative to take to the election in order to frame the argument for change. Frankly, I’m astonished. This may be the second election running where ‘the brains trusts’ have thought that ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ didn’t matter. This is not necessarily something overly complex, or needing to be rolled out three years ago. But it needed to be in place by the time Albo’s ‘fourth quarter, kicking with the wind’ started (ie. I suggest that this economic narrative, and not the Aged Care reform should have formed the cornerstone of his Budget Reply Speech).
In my view, this failure isn’t due to laziness. Nor does it speak to potential incompetence in government. Labor is always better than the Liberals in managing money, which may appear counterfactual, but it is also true, IMO.
No: for some reason a calculated decision seems to have been made – again – to not contest the risible trope that ‘Labor can’t manage the economy’ etc.
If, a different campaign decision had been made, then Albo would have been prepared for a different opening week in the campaign, such that if he suffered a memory blank on some economic figures, he’d be in a position to simply pivot by speaking to the economic narrative that had been developed and rolled out by the beginning of the campaign. ie. ‘when in doubt, only talk about what you want to talk about’ – political communication 101.
This election has serious Arthur Calwell vibes.
From guardian journo…
Am hearing Coalition has dropped a big climate and energy scare campaign to @australian and @dailytelegraph (etc)… let’s see if it is any different from the tosh they served up last time with dodgy modelling of climate costs. #AusVotes22 #auspol #ausvotes
Zimerman is a modderit cclose to nsw treasurer mat kean did not realise that turnbull was a labor party member when he and pine gave us the submarine deal ando n icac agree that it lead to les curuption but perhaps it should be dun buy a cought so a person can have a fair trial
I understand Brian Fisher features in the Coalition climate hoax modelling
Appears that ScoMo is doubling down on inaction on climate change, no ICAC, and gender wars.
Can this be sustained against the weight of public opinion?
sprocket_ @ #1190 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 8:55 pm
Back to the future with $200 lamb roasts?
Federal Election: Anthony Albanese says he is confident he can win and pick up seats in ‘every state’
Despite a series of campaign hiccups and poor poll results, Anthony Albanese says he still thinks he can win. Here’s why.
Clare Armstrong – National political reporter (Daily Tele)
Oh my god, who’s yapping up Melbourne on here ffs?
Wanker central. Thinks it’s Paris because it has lane way cafès. But it’s really just Ballarat with alleys. Terrible joint.
Worst part is it’s full of Victorians.
Andrew_Earlwood – Thank you, yes largely my take on this too and some interesting points you raise.
As you say, this isn’t something that needed to be rolled out three years ago, but since the election has been called there’s been nothing but talk of the economy from the Libs.
So surely a decision could have been made to “beef up” in this regard to at least neutralise the line of attack.
Within Labor, the coal crusaders have finally won
Aaron Patrick
Senior correspondent – AFR
“Federal Election: Anthony Albanese says he is confident he can win and pick up seats in ‘every state’
Despite a series of campaign hiccups and poor poll results, Anthony Albanese says he still thinks he can win. Here’s why.”
There’s been a total of one “poor poll” for Labor (Resolve), which would still equate to a Labor majority victory on the numbers. So that was a misleading statement.
However, I’m not expecting any “good” polls for Labor to come.
Newspoll, is it happening tonight?
Historic Election says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:54 pm
This election has serious Arthur Calwell vibes.
—————————————————————————–
Scott Morrison is no Robert Menzies. And Albo is no Arthur Calwell.