The Age/Herald has the first poll conducted during the campaign period, from Resolve Strategic, which finds the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 35%, Labor down four to 34%, the Greens steady on 11%, One Nation up two to 4% (the accompanying report notes that part of the increase is down to rounding) and the United Australia Party up one to 4%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party results, but this pans out at 52-48 to Labor when preference flows from 2019 applied.
With Resolve Strategic providing state breakdowns only for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the damage is distinctly concentrated in its “rest of Australia”, with the Coalition up six to 36% and Labor down fully ten points to 37%, although it was more the previous result that was the anomaly than this one. Similarly, dramatic change on the gender breakdowns reflects an unusual result last time when the Coalition did better among women than men. I would estimate the current poll’s two-party results as 50.6-49.4 to the Coalition among men and 54.2-45.8 to Labor among women.
On personal ratings, positive movement for Scott Morrison (up five on approval to 44% and down six on disapproval to 47%) is greater than negative movement for Anthony Albanese (down three on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 44%). Resolve Strategic’s leadership rating questions unusually ask how the leader has performed “in recent weeks”. Scott Morrison has opened up a 38-30 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 37-36 last time.
The accompanying report reveals that 27% rate themselves uncommitted, up from 21% a fortnight ago. Many of these would presumably have ended up being allocated through a follow-up question asking to which party they were leaning (Resolve Strategic’s non-membership of the Australian Polling Council, which imposes transparency standards on its members, means this cannot be known for sure). (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that this refers to the pollster’s “how firm are you with your vote” question, which directs respondents to identify as either committed or uncommitted. Resolve Strategic does not provide respondents with an option to identify as uncommitted and have their result counted in the survey, which critics say inflates the non-major party results.) The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1404.
Tricot @ #1078 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 7:30 pm
Well I got my $100 on Labor to win this evening at better odds than before the election was finally called.
Suits me fine Labor not the favorite.
Just imagine if Albanese did this
Josh Taylor
@joshgnosis
Lol PMO tried to fix Morrison’s jobseeker error by putting day in brackets in the official transcript.
———————
Morrison and his cronies still doing corrupt behaviour while in caretaker mode
It should be the end of his political career
Dutton on 7.30:
I was wondering whose fault it was. Good that he cleared that up, eh?
Asha
Much appreciated.
Asha @ #1083 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 7:32 pm
It works for me too.
Everybody needs a little time away 😉
I ventured from my home in Higgins today – not much change afoot there, I suspect. The anti-LNP vote will again split between the ALP/Greens, with too much preference leakage to overturn Katie Allen’s margin. While doing the shopping in neighbouring Kooyong however I encountered a middle-age woman decked out in a teal Monique Allen T-shirt:
1) Said volunteer was obviously keen to see the back of F’berg.
2) The volunteer claimed there were 1500 fellow helpers of Monique, and that she’d had absolutely nothing but positive feedback from passers-by and during her door-knocking expeditions.
3) The plague of Josh billboards and corflutes about the district – especially the big posters in front of opulent houses on large frontages with good exposure to passing traffic – are spread by his campaign paying the homeowners to display them. And here I was thinking that it was merely compulsory for every Liberal member in Kooyong to have a poster displayed! Monique’s corflutes are all voluntary (of course), including the donation of the lengthy corner frontage at Camberwell Junction that has the massive Josh billboard on the roof. A clever little hijack, that one.
4) The volunteer referred a seat based poll which had Ryan ahead at 59-41 2CP! With a sample of 824, she noted precisely. Has anyone else on PB seen this? Josh was now scared and had resorted to a series of embarrassing photo ops on Twitter that had all obviously been done in the one morning. I suggested that he wasn’t all that experienced at this campaigning thing – he’s never had to be in the past, although 2019 might have raised the discomfort levels.
5) The volunteer cited the arrogance of his government – and Josh’s behaviour during the worst of the Covid pandemic in Victoria the past 2 years – as well as the spending of taxpayers money on advertising. But she had joined Monique’s cause after listening to a gentleman she had met relating his son’s depression that the “world would end in 2030” because Australia would not meet its climate targets.
For someone who had joined only 2 weeks ago she was a very well-informed activist, who had all the campaign office talking points firmly nailed down. However I did judge her as the sort of benign and well turned-out grandmother that would have formed part of the bedrock of Kooyong’s LNP support over generations. If that level of commitment is a good indication of which way this segment of the urban electorate is leaning then Joshy had better start looking at other ways to serve the nation’s rich and powerful. Along with Wilson and Sharma.
Out of touch’: Prime Minister grilled over campaign gaffe
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has responded to a campaign gaffe after being grilled about whether he was “out of touch”.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has suffered his first major campaign gaffe, incorrectly stating the rate of JobSeeker while being quizzed by journalists in Perth.
But on Monday, Mr Morrison incorrectly said JobSeeker’s were paid $46 a week while answering a question on the cost of living.
Labor’s Jason Clare was quick off the mark to highlight the error and took to Twitter to call for the Prime Minister to correct the record.
“Today Scott Morrison got the JobSeeker rate wrong. Not by a little – he was out by $276 a week,” he said.
“Will he come out and correct the record?”
Hundreds of social media users pounced on the gaffe, as did Network Ten political editor Peter van Onselen.
“Maybe that’s what he wants it (the JobSeeker rate) to be,” van Onselen said.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/prime-minister-scott-morrison-wont-rule-out-election-deal/news-story/234ac33d95b393185e9c7e4490d21343
Twice as many people get their political news via social media as those who rely on ‘mainstream media’..
..less than 13% of the population get their information from ‘mainstream media’..
..I don’t think the blatant ‘mainstream media’ propaganda trumps ‘lived experience’..
..as others here have suggested, ‘mainstream media’ may not have as much influence on the outcome of this election as many think..
..interesting times..
Steelydan
“ The Liberal MP for the seat of North Sydney, Trent Zimmerman, asked the prime minister’s office to dump controversial candidate Katherine Deves because of her comments on transgender issues.”
Exhibit A, any thoughts? I’m certain he’s a Liberal MP but doesn’t sound too happy to me. And he’s by no means the only one.
Tricot @ Monday, April 18, 2022 at 7:42 pm
Sandgropers can be amusing, that is for sure 😉
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/ooga-booga-scomo-trolled-by-cavemen-at-bunnings/news-story/a07100fc9dc5b1394840acef5dc7f6b2
@Freya Stark.
‘Albanese has to be the most laziest opposition leader…’
I’m sorry but I cannot let that one slip by.
Albanese is either ‘the most lazy’ or ‘the laziest’.
He can’t be both – that would be silly.
Okay? Lovely! As you were…
Time to be out of here as the night time right-wing nutters come out from where who knows?
Already one looney has chipped in with Albo being lazy and a second loon has chipped in to agree.
Now I happen to believe most politicians work very hard – regardless of which side they are on – and yes this includes Morrison, and to think after 27 years in politics for Albanese represents “laziness” is just laughable and nor worthy of any attention…..
There are people with stronger stomachs and tougher hides than me on PB to deal with these vagrant souls……
Nicholas says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 3:33 pm
True to form, campaigning for the Lying Reactionary Party.
No matter how you try to excuse or disguise it, this is precisely what you’re doing. The LRP will welcome the contribution to phobic politics from a self-anointing progressive.
“‘Classic switch’ backfires for Albanese at Bluesfest”
Meh. I remember when Tony Abbott appeared on Hey Hey its Saturday during the federal election in 2010 and he was booed. I don’t remember all the analysis and the suggestion from the media the appearance ‘backfired’. Offcourse if it happens to a Labor leader then it is a big deal and a blow.
It has been pointed out by the venerable ex-contributor to this blog, Ruawake, that :
Apart from Sportsbet paying out on a shorten win? Plus how much would a person trying to sway the market need to change it. Could someone prepared to spend 10s of millions of dollars on advertising spend $250k to change the market for instance?
Cronus, it’s performative, with an eye to keeping his own seat. You’d almost think it was a strategy, put some nutcase in that you can throw to the wolves, dog whistle to socially conservative people in Western Sydney, and give ‘progressive’ liberals something to rail against, as a way to establish their progressive cred.
I don’t actually give Morrison that much tactical foresight though.
Scout: Nitpicking over grammatical niceties won’t change the result of the election.
For better or worse, Australian society will be much closer to that of Alabama in a generation. I admire you if you seek to emulate your father Atticus if you seek to enter into a legal career of social justice.
All of this is dismally disappointing, but I thank the Lord that I get a stage 3 tax cut.
Betting markets have no insider knowledge. Or polls. So whoever said that above is wrong.
It is people putting money behind their emotional beliefs. In racing only 2 in 5 favourites win.
Few people do the form beyond the basics … just like few people do the form on elections. Some know more than others about whats happening but most have no idea.
Polls are a snapshot.
Betting is likewise a snapshot — but not of what is happening, but what people would like to happen. Some people gamble ‘strategically’ but they are professionals. In election betting, large bets might be made in an attempt to create an illusion of what’s happening.
If you look at the changing ‘emotional’ commentary on this site, you are also looking at the reason why put money on a party or candidate. It can be strategic (odds that it’s a value bet even though less likely win) just like the discussions about strategic voting in particular seats. Other people simply put m oney on because they want to believe a side will win regardless of the form/likelihood.
Tricot @ #1112 Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 7:54 pm
Start feeding them out with anonblock,it’s good for the soul and they’ll be replaced daily by their masters at headquarters.
Griff – thanks for that…Unsurprisingly this little segment did not feature at all on Channel 9 news at 5 pm…Now, dare I say, if this had been Albo he would have probably shared the joke with them…This merely emphasises the vetting and control Morrison’s minders are exerting. The fact the police were there is also disturbing……
All you saw on the Channel 9 clip was him shaking hands with some not very interested looking people with a handful in the background being held back from where the cameras were for Morrison…..This is turning into really Soviet style stuff……
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/ooga-booga-scomo-trolled-by-cavemen-at-bunnings/news-story/a07100fc9dc5b1394840acef5dc7f6b2
Two observations:
Notice how close up and intimidating the jacks were to the ‘cavemen’? WA’s finest, of AFP? Im not familiar with WA police uniforms, so can’t tell.
Notice ScoMo’s sirens in his media entourage trying to cross examine the cavemen? To me, it sounded very much like they were offended on behalf of ScoMo, like: ‘how dare you interrupt our dear leader’s cosplaying confected stunt of the day with one of your own. You dirty proles!’
If you do look at the betting odds
The lib/nats are not going to win any seats in Tasmania – meaning they lost 3 seats and elsewhere the betting odds have the lib/nats winning no more than 58 seats
it shows why the betting odds are kind of dodgy as the lib/nats and their propaganda media units
Scout and Freya,
A general rule is that if a word has two or one syllable(s) it is -est at the end, so ‘laziest’, but if three or more syllables are in a word ‘most’ is used. For example, ‘dearest’ and ‘most expensive’.
Cronussays:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 7:47 pm
Steelydan
“ The Liberal MP for the seat of North Sydney, Trent Zimmerman, asked the prime minister’s office to dump controversial candidate Katherine Deves because of her comments on transgender issues.”
Exhibit A, any thoughts? I’m certain he’s a Liberal MP but doesn’t sound too happy to me. And he’s by no means the only one.
_______________________________________________________
My thoughts are he is small l liberal in an electorate that transphobia does not play well. Many of these Teal seats had some of the highest pro same sex marriage vote. May play well in QLD though.
Grime —good luck with the investment…
Labor and the Coalition are now even money odds at $1.88 each.
I’d say that’s probably about where it should be too, there doesn’t seem to be a clear favourite to me at this stage.
Good on you Firefox , putting money on Labor to make it equal
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:01 pm
Notice how close up and intimidating the jacks were to the ‘cavemen’? WA’s finest, of AFP? Im not familiar with WA police uniforms, so can’t tell.
______________
I wasn’t aware ‘the jacks’ was common slang for the police in Sydney. I have only ever heard it used in Melbourne. Or did you pick it up from Underbelly?
”
Firefoxsays:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 3:54 pm
Huge congrats to the legendary Senator Sarah Hanson-Young and Ben Oquist…
”
He looks old when compared to Hanson-young. What is his age?
I think he’s early 50s so a about 10 years older.
All his don’t take notice of the betting market is fair enough they are just a snap shot of polls and general feeling, the point though is why the hell have they got Coalition in front.
All his don’t take notice of the betting market is fair enough they are just a snap shot of polls and general feeling, the point though is why the hell have they got Coalition in front.
Again the MSM has jumped the shark:
Jimmy Barnes’ son reveals truth about Albo’s Bluesfest appearance
Jimmy Barnes’ son has set the record straight about Anthony Albanese’s treatment at Bluesfest after speaking to his rock legend dad.
Mr Campbell said on Monday the “booing was because the band were on stage, the crowd were pumped and ready to rock”.
“When the ‘working class man’ was announced, Albo came on. Classic switch. There were a few boos, but more cheers,” he said.
“My dad added that most support acts get booed, as do most politicians at these events – but from where he stood, Albo went over really well with the crowd.
“Most importantly, he told me, after Albo left the stage, the gig was massive and everyone had the best night. Which, when you are at Bluesfest, after two years of cancellations, is the most important outcome!”
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/jimmy-barnes-son-clears-up-anthony-albaneses-bluesfest-2022-appearance/news-story/f82808cb752449b3114393b1df2691c2
Itep
“ I don’t actually give Morrison that much tactical foresight though.”
Agreed, just another simple case of bad judgement in terms of the Captain’s pick is my guess. He has form.
RE betting odds,
1.90 for labor on sports bet, or 2.55 for labor majority government.
Both seem pretty plausible at the moment.
Anyway, we’ll see i guess.
Oh and Deves has dug in for the whole ride, so that albatross will be great for SFM. For every conservative it get’s on board it drives a moderate to vote elsewhere.
Nice that she’s obviously found happiness.
Just a comment on Sarah Hanson-Young, having met her on more than one occasion I was always surprised how short she is. Barely 5 foot in the old money, possibly an inch or two shorter.
You don’t get this perspective on her media or Senate Chamber appearances, but Oquist is normal height.
Steelydan says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:10 pm
All his don’t take notice of the betting market is fair enough they are just a snap shot of polls and general feeling, the point though is why the hell have they got Coalition in front.
————————————————-
The media narrative
Watch the odds go back out if Newspoll is a fizzer
“Good on you Firefox , putting money on Labor to make it equal”
***
Hehe nah I wouldn’t bet on that, you’d have to put down too much to get any kind of decent return and the outcome of the election is waaaaay too uncertain at this stage.
“ Or did you pick it up from Underbelly?”
Instructing in a gangland trial in the basement of the Downing Centre for months on end twenty years ago. The villains were a Sydney crew, so I’m not sure the term was Melbourne specific, even back then.
Firefox says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:12 pm
Hehe nah I wouldn’t bet on that, you’d have to put down too much to get any kind of decent return and the outcome of the election is waaaaay too uncertain at this stage.
——————————————————-
The official indicator is on federal election day, which is over a month away
Charles at 7.47pm
The News.com.au article about Morrison and JobSeeker contains at least one inaccuracy.
Getting the rate wrong by a factor of 7 is not his first gaffe.
“Mr Speaker”
“Australian economy is worth 2.1 trillion dollars…12 zeroes”
Leaving aside his deliberate lies.
“ Firefoxsays:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 3:54 pm
Huge congrats to the legendary Senator Sarah Hanson-Young and Ben Oquist…”
That is a fantastic wedding dress. One of the best I’ve seen. Perfect for her.
What a beautiful day, in a beautiful part of the world to celebrate. Congratulations all round.
@Ophuph Hucksake
I think these are about the poll that they mentioned (I’m not sure if someone else has posted any articles about it), it certainly is a promising sign (although seat polls are, as always, somewhat dubious)
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/04/18/kooyong-poll-points-loss-frydenberg/
https://thewest.com.au/politics/election/kooyong-poll-points-to-loss-for-frydenberg-c-6481277
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7702471/kooyong-poll-points-to-loss-for-frydenberg/?src=rss
https://www.examiner.com.au/story/7702471/kooyong-poll-points-to-loss-for-frydenberg/
Steelydan
Here in QLD it isn’t an issue except among us bludgers. But it clearly is in Warringah and surrounding seats and that’s what matters. I don’t imagine a series of imploding NSW Lib branches is what Morrison needs but I’m not a Lib so couldn’t say for sure. Unless of course you’re just attempting to defend the indefensible?
Scout at 7.53pm
Freya clearly meant “mostest laziest”
Tricot @ Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:00 pm
Morrison has turned a campaign disadvantage in not being able to engage with the public into a strength. The media are enjoying the wining and the dining of course, but they also enjoy that sense of elitism in being held apart from the great unwashed.
Many narcissists use love bombing quite successfully as a short term strategy. Six weeks is perfect 😉
Don’t listen to the likes of Evan, ALP is gaining momentum. This election will be a pitched battle. There is no love for Scomoe but Albo does not knock anyone for six, also the conservative aligned media is telling us Albo is invalid. The vibe for me is that the issues are running against the LNP and I feel ( might be wrong but) luck this time is with Labor. Even the Murdochcracy/ LNP can’t hold back the tide or stop the breeze, Strap yourself in!!!!!
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 8:14 pm
“ Or did you pick it up from Underbelly?”
Instructing in a gangland trial in the basement of the Downing Centre for months on end twenty years ago. The villains were a Sydney crew, so I’m not sure the term was Melbourne specific, even back then.
__________
It’s very common here, always has. Reminds my of what Chopper Read had to say:
I don’t know why Sydney crooks don’t stick to what they know best, pimping for whores and selling drugs to kids. Every time you see a Sydney crook on television, he is either lying in the street after being killed by an imported Melbourne hitman, or giving Crown evidence against some poor bastard.
William, Nath, Rex Douglas et al., thank you for your comments… and apologies being so late to the party, hopefully this reply is not hopelessly out of context by p. 23…
Andrew_Earlwood – I was going to append my comment with “no ad hominum attacks please”, but thought better of it 😉
I must admit I’ve not watched any other interviews of Albo speaking about the economy recently – save for the usual soundbites – but I disagree that this was a “brain fade”. To my eyes at least, it looked as if he simply didn’t know (the uncomfortable squirm, the facial expressions etc.) – which is how I perceive it’s been received in voter-land (judging by anecodotes here and elsewhere, focus group findings etc.)
But let’s be generous and say it was indeed a brain fade – then it speaks to an alarming lack of preparation, when your opponent is running so singularly on the economy as their only remaining trump card.
C@t – thank you for your kind and generous reply, but my vote is not for sale. I’m trying to speak here for the large number of Australians whose votes are.