Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A tumble in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings fails to carry through to two-party preferred, as the Greens record their best result in almost a year.

The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.

The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,144 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Mick Quinlivansays:
    Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 10:37 pm
    An idea … Abbott endorsed Deves because he hated Morrison..I wonder?

    Abbott has a long list of failings, but this is almost certainly about his religious views, and when it comes to his religious views, he doesn’t play games. I may disagree with him in every way regarding those views, but I think he’s just seriously supporting Deves.

    Mind you, I also think he’d have been more careful with his language, if he was actively trying to help Morrison, so I think his dislike of Morrison factors in… just not in the choice to endorse.

  2. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 10:43 pm

    It’s not 7 dimensional chess.

    Look at the polls. Look at the feel of the day.

    Everything else will take care of itself.

    It is not just about polls and polls got it wrong in 2019 and 1998. ALP are not judged at the same level as LNP. LNP knows it and that is the reason why LNP got away with so many atrocities.

  3. south @ #733 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 3:19 pm

    214,000 extra people on the electoral roll is about 11 thousand per electorate, assuming they are all young and vote with a 60% split, that’s maybe something, or it may just wash out as nothing.

    Did you go to Morrison-Hockey School Mathematics?

    150 electorates, so that’s about 1,100 extra per electorate.

  4. @ Ven
    Mate if I can’t sniff out a Tory within five minutes then my 35 years of ALP Membership and all the shit I copped at school from the Tory land owning class are for nought.

    Being a member of the Labor Party is not a religious or cult experience.

    But it does mean we fraternally express the same values. That is a fair go and a helping hand to those in need.

    So have a go at C@t and have a dig at me. It’s water off a ducks back, I’ve copped it from better than you.

    I grew up in one of the highest Tory voting areas in Queensland! I had the fist fights at high school to prove it when Joh sacked SEQEB workers because they were trying to protect their jobs. I might have went down due to weight of numbers but I went down swinging.

    Being a Member of the ALP is one of the best things I have done in my life. And like my Grandad and Dad it’s given me a faith in a better Australia.

    I know many on here are supporters and not members. But never ever question a Member like C@t or myself for our faith. We are the True Believers.

  5. GG,
    Yeah, my expectations are low, but I did get that wrong as pointed out by BC earlier and I copped to it. So the moment to kick sand in my eyes has passed. Now it’s just bad sport.

    I wonder, whom else recently has been hounded by small mistakes after correcting? is this empathy I feel….

  6. Victoria,
    In the 2016 census about 160 people identified as trans women. I saw a graph from UK the other day which said 300 people out of 15 million registered sports participants identified as trans.

    I’m sure those ABS figures are underestimates, maybe significantly so. But we’re not talking major social crisis requiring hyperbolic intervention.

  7. Re the lamestream media sudden inability to enunciate “53 to 47” and the “hung parliament” spectre…

    It reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python’s The Holy Grail.

    The Knight loses his arms and legs – and torso – in a sword fight with Arthur, describing all these as “flesh wounds” or “but a scratch”.

    In the end, the Knight’s helmet-obscured head yells “Alright, we’ll call it a draw.”

  8. Cashless Debit Card – Doorstop Interview


    So do you plan to make it compulsory at some point?


    Well, I’m not going to pre-empt that. I think this is the start of a consultation. I mean, we’ve run a number of trial sites. We’re seeking, as I said, to put all income management onto the universal platform which is the Cashless Debit Card, and I think then the conversation needs to be had about what are the advantages of this card. And it’s up to us, as a government, to go and sell those advantages in the hope that the Australian community will see the value of it.

  9. I have to laugh at the arm chair experts sharing with us mere mortals from the font of self opinionated political “wisdom” about what Albanese and/or Labor
    could/would/should do or not do to win this election.

    If only Labor listened to these great prophets of impending doom Labor would win by 30 seats and the Coalition would be left like the WA Liberals, decimated. It is hilarious. Please, don’t stop, I need something to laugh at – I know it’s not PC to laugh at bed-wetters and arm chair experts on all this electioneering but, as the KFC ad says, I don’t care, I love it !!

  10. First comment, longtime lurker.
    Can someone please tell Freya Stark to put a cork in it?
    She/he is nothing short of boring, thanks

  11. The AEC is yet to provide details of the 700,000 + transactions during the Close of Rolls period, but don’t bank on a dramatic surge of enrolment by young people deciding the election.
    Based on previous CORs it is likely that less than 50% of the 700,000 transactions added to the roll total. Additions are made up of first time enrolments (young people and new citizens), plus re-enrolments by persons previously enrolled. It could be that only 150,000 of the additions are by persons never enrolled before.
    The balance of transactions are for persons moving address and already enrolled with no change to total enrolment.
    As to the percentage of 18-24 year olds enrolled, this is an age cohort of 1.5 million plus eligible persons. It is possible that 85% are enrolled, but most would have been already on the roll before the election was announced.

  12. Cashless Debit Card –

    First, they “trialed” the idea, then extended the “trial”, then had it reviewed by a hand-picked panel of “experts”.
    First they came for the unemployed, and everyone who mattered for the “Liberals” either cheered or didn’t care
    Then they came for the disabled,
    And eventually, for the age pensioners.

    It’s a 21st Century revival of the Workhouse that needs to be squashed now.

  13. Freya Starksays:
    Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 11:14 pm
    Cannot see Albanese winning.
    It looks like the Coalition with PHON are the future of Australia.

    Should have gone to Specsavers…

  14. For those of you who are quoting betting markets as some sort of form guide, the shortest (Sportsbet) odds re primary vote for the coalition are 33-33.9%. For Labor it’s 36-36.9%
    Despite this, although the odds do favour a Labor win they are favourites in just 76 seats to LNP 69 with 6 others. No new independents and just 7 seats changing hands – Bass and Braddon in Tas, Boothby in SA, Chisholm in Vic, Reid in NSW, Pearce and Swan in WA. None changing in Qld.

    I find it hard to believe that with a primary vote of 33% the Libs would hang on to 69 seats. Equally hard to believe that despite the large swing supposedly on in Qld that no seats would change.

    The betting markets have no particularly insight. They just respond to shifts in the betting and let’s face it, plenty of people do not make logical or wise decisions when placing bets. I still think I’m going to win powerball every week but it never happens…

  15. Smart of Albanese to launch the campaign in Perth, Mark McGowan can be the warm up act and then Jim Chalmers can be the attack dog before Albo does his thing

  16. The Anne Ruston comments from 2020 I think are going to hurt the LNP campaign a bit, she was pretty unambiguous in saying that the Indue card would be extended by stating “we’re seeking to put all income management onto the universal platform which is the cashless debit card”. Morrison was pretty hard on the “Labor lies” response to this, he knows how much damage this may cause.

    I actually find it hard to believe the LNP would extend this to old age pensioners though, they are their strongest voting cohort, don’t know how they would they be able to win an election with a policy like this.

    It looks like an effective strategy for Labor to keep chipping away at any inconsistencies in the LNP’s record where it clearly doesn’t match the actual facts. It puts Morrison in deny mode, and people don’t trust him at all when he’s trying to say he didn’t or won’t do something.

    As much as I dislike small target attack, policy-free election campaigns, I understand why they are doing this against Morrison. The guy is a rabid attack dog who will just hound you to death if you had any possible chinks in a more transformative agenda. Best just to play it safe so you can meet the first objective of kicking this slimeball out.

  17. While many are deceived and fall victim to manufactured consent, those that actively cheered on the dark forces went through their lives empty, void of empathy, their thoughts dominated by mean disregard. They aligned together in power pacts, yet they never knew the dignity of genuine community solidarity. They surrounded themselves with shiny things but could not understand the true value of anything.
    I never did understand their contempt for the world around them. As they lived quite comfortably within their bubbles, I was truly grateful I didn’t have to live within their minds…..

  18. @Tom That’s a fair point old people are increasingly not pensioners. My understanding though is that 39% of oldies are still full pensioners, a further 24% are part pensioners. The 2019 election study broke down the vote of 65+ as 55% Lib, 4% Nat, 29% ALP, 2% Grn, 10% Ors. Clearly not all full pensioners are voting left and on the flip side I’m sure not all fully-funded retirees are voting Lib/Nat. So there is room for movement if a party was so daft to introduce cashless debit cards for old age pensioners.

  19. GG at 11.42pm re Shorten obliterating Jennett…

    I’m glad Shorten did. Jennett deserves every piece of negative feedback he gets about this interaction, is the twitter replies to the link you posted show.

    Jennett tried to dismiss Labor’s clear policies in relation to this as ‘statements by backbenchers’. That would be a lie.

    Then he describes the ILLEGAL Robodebt as some kind of expensive policy adventure!! Not a vicious, life-taking policy whose illegality has been demonstrated, for example.

    F#cking pr1ck.

    The things we’re seeing in the media are not accidental ‘slips of the tongue.’ They are strategies employed to protect and re-elect the Right. I’m struggling to think of any ABC journalist over the past week who shouldn’t be sacked for breach of charter.

    Makes the stubborn Newspoll sweeter. IF Labor wins govt, THIS will be ‘the sweetest victory’ of all, due to the cravenness of the forces arrayed against the Party – and the common good.

  20. When it come to transgenders in sport, I think it depends what level of sport we are talking about?
    If its Saturday morning netball or cricket, that’s a bit different to Olympic competition or professional sport.
    I think you would have to be a bigot to say that trans people shouldn’t be allowed to participate in non professional sport, Im not sure if this liberal woman was referring to just professional sport or not?
    But I understand if its professional.

  21. I check in here every election campaign was going to sit this one out but couldn’t resist.

    As far as the betting markets are concerned I used to work in that particular industry ( a fair time ago know it’s changed a lot) so I have watched the markets closely at the last four federal elections.

    The best guide is the seat betting, sure it was wrong last time but so was every other rational metric.At the three previous elections it pretty much nailed it.

    Indeed in 2010 there was a disconnect between the head to head and seat betting, head to head had Labor strong favourites seat betting indicated it was desperately close.

    The reason seat betting is the best guide is sample size, you have 151 different markets to even out the errors.At the moment Labour are 52.5 2pp in one poll and 53 – 47 in another.

    My guess is punters are still a bit concerned after 2019 that the polling is underestimating the tory vote and are consciously or subconsciously shaving a point and a half off the Labor 2pp so pricing it up as labor somewhere around 51 51.5 which would probably give them about 76 seats.

    As far as primary vote my guess is they think UAP . Phon will shave another couple of percent off the LNP primary vote but the lion share will come back as preferences Also a bit of a disconnect with the seat market.Early betting of course a lot could change depending on polling trends.

  22. @ GG Thanks for the Shorten Jennett link. Shorten tore him a new arsehole.

    The Journos will start to sniff Labor aren’t going to take the shit and are back in the game.

    Muchly appreciated.

  23. Freya Starksays:
    Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 11:53 pm
    GlenO: don’t mock my ability to see the future. You ain’t no Nostradamus!

    First of all, it’s a joke.

    Second of all, I’m mocking your INability to see the future.

  24. Notice they’re being very careful only saying they’re not going to extend the CDC to aged pensioners, while not mentioning whether or not they’ll extend it to all disability pensioners and carers. If you read between the lines, that’s not being ruled out. And I’m sorry, but they need just as much dignity for their shopping trolley as the elderly do.

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