The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
I think I heard Scott Morrison screaming with rage all the way from WA! And Steelydan and Lars von Liberal crying into their beer. 😆
Terrible for the LNP tbh. A bad week for the ALP and it’s done nothing for the 2PP
Back for this one… yikes.
After all of that, stable 2PP, Albo takes a nasty hit, but that was to be expected, but there’s definitely room to recover that.
Strategically speaking, the worst 3 moves from Morrison last week were:
1. Confirming Tudge for Cabinet again if he wins.
2. Backing Katherine Deves to the hilt.
3. Announcing Anne Ruston as the new Health Minister.
I’d love to see the Male/Female breakdowns too.
You have to assume that previously of those responding “approve” or “disapprove” (vs don’t know) on Albanese – even some of them were making an educated guess one way or the other.
Now they are paying attention and he is getting more coverage, they don’t like what they see. All his bad mannerisms (from a media perspective) have flared up under the pressure of the campaign.
Xenu @ #NaN Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 9:49 pm
People know a crook chook when they smell one.
hazza4257 @ #NaN Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 9:51 pm
And seem to have disappeared again by today. If his press conference in Brisbane today is any guide.
…and the ABC commentary team can shove that up their arses.
This result is going to cause a lot of the horse race commentators to have to completely rewrite the script of the past several days.
Be interesting what happens to the betting odds over the next several hours.
Xenu @ #NaN Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 9:49 pm
They threw the kitchen sink at Albanese and look what they got for their trouble.
This is not enough to shift the narrative. Coalition still favoured to win on the day that counts.
The Australian media is like the US with only Fox News.
As per my prediction earlier in the week. Same 2PP with Albo’s negatives up.
Interesting that Resolve and Newspoll are exactly the same on primary votes for the ALP and LNP.
Seems like this result will break decisively one way or the other in the next 32 days. Albo still the front runner given he has led at least 53-47 for 12 months – but there’s obviously a lot of doubt out there.
Hard to believe it could be like this for so long and break for ScoMo at the last minute.
Lynchpin @ #NaN Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 9:52 pm
As can the betting agencies.
And Chris Uhlmann to boot!
Haha! The dulcet tones of the nation’s asinine journalists having their noses rubbed in shit.
So much your idiot ‘gaffe’ narratives, losers. You might have to start taking policy seriously
Lynchpin at 9.52pm
+100!
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 9:47 pm
And Lars von Liberal and Steelydan crying into their beer.
”
And Freya is very very upset. 🙂
Hmm. A bit of ‘humour’ from The Australian ? Right next to the Newspoll news at the top of the page………..
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-primary-pains-strike-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese/news-story/0aeb0730144c02caa71b5700f9eb3f90
Just have to repost Lars from the previous thread – and a befuddled Simon Benson.
Maybe he can ask Bridgett during their pillow talk what the numbers mean?
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 9:46 pm
From the Oz (Simon Benson):
“On these numbers alone, it is hard to see how Albanese could win an election.
But based on the more important voter intention numbers, it is equally hard to see how the Coalition could win with a primary vote of 35 per cent.
The difficult reality is that people appeared to have decided that it is time for a change of government, just as Albanese had made himself unelectable.
This has led to a deep frustration within the electorate.”
uh oh
It’s had an immediate impact on Sportsbet. Labor in 5 points.
Repost from previous thread…
I’m so pleased the lamestream media’s efforts to paint Labor’s first week as a disaster have been rewarded with a monstrous shift in support towards the govt, as revealed in the latest Newspoll…oh, wait!
BTW, when the previous Newspoll came in at the same 2PP, I posed the question as to whether the ‘narrowing’ from 56/44 to 53/47 represented 1) a blip; 2) a reversion to mean (late 2021 most Newspolls were 53/47); or 3) the beginning of a bad trend for Labor.
The first provisional answer – of many (so as not to make assumptions/tempt fate etc) – is 2).
So the takeaways are
1. ScoMo is loved by some and disliked by many others. They won’t be convinced by any amount of BS or favourable media coverage.
2. Albo is liked by a few (37 approve vs Morrison’s 43) but many are turned off by him. Yes he has had bad coverage with the gaffe, but beyond that he just doesn’t present well in the sound bites.
The ball is in Labor’s court to somehow convince swinging voters to move to the ALP despite Albo/because they like Albo.
This a is hard task but 53-47 is a good position to be in considering the last week. Should be really worrying for the Libs to not have made up any ground despite everything.
The Teals continue to suck the life out of the LNP. Gathering pace!!
To the pollster who said Albo’s vote was “wide but shallow”, I’d say its wide with some very deep bits and shallow bits that could get wider!
C@t
I’d like to make a couple of additions to your comments above…
The Fourth bad play by Morrison this week is FICAC – or, running away from one.
Re press conferences – Albo and Chalmers also had a good one in Cairns Saturday morning.
As a matter of fact, Labor have had a pretty good weekend, leading me to ponder ‘when was the sampling done for this Newspoll?’
Looks like “google it mate” hit a spot, but the continuous press attack on Labor hasn’t amounted to much.
Well, what this and the Resolve poll tell me is that Labor is not going to win by trying to sell Albanese. The Coalition is desperate to make him the issue. Labor needs to ensure that Morrison and his bunch of corrupt, incompetent, bullying, sleazy MPs and Senators are the issue.
People will not vote for Albanese and Labor; they will vote these bastards out.
Labor must not forget that. And that the mainstream media are their enemies. They are only interested in Labor policies to the extent they can catch Albanese out in some detail or the other. They are certainly not interested in what benefits those policies will bring to Australia.
53/47 last week, disaster, certain defeat, 53/47 this week, hallehlujah, nirvana……… People, eh!!
65% of voters in this NewsPoll are NOT putting a #1 against the Coalition candidate.
Why? Here is a clue…
#Newspoll Morrison: Approve 43 (+1) Disapprove 52 (-2) #auspol
Ven: I’m not a Coalition supporter, I believe that the Morrison government are the worst government since McMahon. But that doesn’t mean that they won’t win, given the bias of the mainstream media. The problem is that the vast majority, perhaps 85%, of the electorate can be fooled by them. Most people, in any country (so not an inditement on Australians), simply do not have the sophistication to see through them.
And non-university educated men typically do not need a government to “benefit” them to vote for them, simply spraying bigotry and antipathy toward minority groups and “wokeism” is sufficient.
As for myself, at least I get a stage 3 tax cut. Enough for me to go on a cruise with my faithful daughter-in-law.
Tudge oversaw the introduction of the Indue card as Human Services Minister.
Albo winning with -14 net popularity? He’ll achieve what Shorten couldn’t!
Not a bad set of numbers at all, especially coming out of Easter when people will start to take more notice. Love to see it.
This one is done. Stick a fork in it. Much clenching of jaws and gnashing of teeth to come from most alp supporters given what happened in 2019, myself included. But it’s done.
Tony Abbott had negative approval in 2013 and won in a landslide. Of course he had the assistance of the Murdoch-rag Media.
@Scout (previous thread)
‘Welcome Addie…’
Thanks, Scout, really appreciate that! See ya’ around the threads!
@LvT – I think the hit on Albos’ approval wasn’t reflective of dislike, which it primarily was with Shorten, but disappointment.
I personally hope this is the low ebb on that front, lol.
Is it too late for Dutts to call for a spill?
True that freya re Abbott.
It will be a really interesting election – maybe it will be like Carter / Reagan 1980 – close until the last fortnight AND then broke strongly for Reagan.
Although the Liberals believe the break will be for them.
The “teal” vote – how much of the Lib Primary of 35 is due to a loss of votes in those seats too?
This poll is good for Labor considering the week they had, there’s probably a lot of people out there while not impressed with Albanese don’t consider him dodgy like Morrison so it doesn’t move the needle like it would if you had a normal human being as PM. Should continue highlighting their good frontbenchers, especially Chalmers. It’s still close though, and the net sats are heading the wrong way so I hope Albanese finds his mojo. Interesting to see the Greens +2, probably gained some positive attention from Bandt’s “Google it” response at the NPC and/or unimpressed Labor leaning voters.
As ltep said the PPM is pretty good. Not that it means much.
The ABC team of Jennett and Kelly need to take a good long hard look in the mirror.
jt1983 says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 10:04 pm
@LvT – I think the hit on Albos’ approval wasn’t reflective of dislike, which it primarily was with Shorten, but disappointment.
I personally hope this is the low ebb on that front, lol.
_______________________
Maybe – I do think people are sick of ScoMo / but aren’t sealed on Albo. Will be a long 32 days.
Benson:
“ difficult reality is that people appeared to have decided that it is time for a change of government, just as Albanese had made himself unelectable.”
FMD, a memory blank and suddenly Albo is ‘unelectable’? Going out on a limb, may I suggest that the decline in Albo’s personal numbers are at least 90% attributable to the MSM pile on?
Of course, let’s not get carried away comrades: that ‘pile on’ mainly misses the real story out of gaff gate: the lack of a crisp coherent economic narrative that is front and centre of the campaign. Will campaigning on Morrison’s record and the odd policy bauble be enough in the absence of that narrative? I remain gravely concerned and suspect that a status quo Newspoll at this stage of the campaign will prove to be a false dawn.
Preferred P.M. is meaningless.
1996 redux.
…or Carter/Ford in 76 – where there was a strong lead with the incumbent chasing them down “if they’d only had one more week”.
Or Bush/Clinton/Perot in 92 – where a significant lead for the challenger, tightened in the last month, also before a decisive shift toward the challenger at the end.
Lotsa parallels.
A_E… Christ on a cracker, you may be right… but some people just strap themselves in no matter the terrain, lol.
I see Debbie Downer from Earlwood is back. 😐
The LNP ads attacking Albo have started. Watching “24 Hours in Emergency” on SBS.
They’re obviously rattled.
AE I think Labor is addressing your concerns by trotting out Chalmers so much.
And I’m not sure economic narrative is as crucial this election.
The big issue may be governance especially given the last 3 years with COVID floods and fire and ICAC.
”
hazza4257says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 9:56 pm
So the takeaways are
1. ScoMo is loved by some and disliked by many others. They won’t be convinced by any amount of BS or favourable media coverage.
2. Albo is liked by a few (37 approve vs Morrison’s 43) but many are turned off by him. Yes he has had bad coverage with the gaffe, but beyond that he just doesn’t present well in the sound bites.
The ball is in Labor’s court to somehow convince swinging voters to move to the ALP despite Albo/because they like Albo.
This a is hard task but 53-47 is a good position to be in considering the last week. Should be really worrying for the Libs to not have made up any ground despite everything.
”
I remember you piling on Albanese in previous thread.
I also remember that someone posted in previous thread that Keating reportedly said that voters usually take interest in first week and the last week of campaign.
Hopefully by that time Albanese eliminates his mistakes in campaigning and become more confident and self assured in his delivery of message, which seems to be in progress.
And hopefully the ALP naysayers on ALP side calm down for the time being instead of piling on Albanese and ALP. You made life miserable for a lot ALP supporters who follow this blog.