Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A tumble in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings fails to carry through to two-party preferred, as the Greens record their best result in almost a year.

The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.

The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,144 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. K – A_E, gotcha.

    Thanks. Honestly, I think your framing of Rudd’s campaign is more nostaglia than fact. I was there too and remember thinking his economic message was mostly bullshit, based mostly on he wanted to avoid a hit job from Howard in defense of “his” surplus.

    But you’ve made your point. I disagree a) there’s no economic message b) it needs to be front and centre for Labor to win. We’ll see who’s correct.

  2. Sceptic @ #1046 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 9:37 pm

    Barrie is hammering Ms Deves & Scottie…

    https://twitter.com/barriecassidy

    10 News First Sydney
    @10NewsFirstSyd
    Scott Morrison says he will not let embattled Liberal candidate for Warringah Katherine Deves “be silenced” over tweets about transgender issues that some have regarded as bigoted.

    Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy

    Silenced? There wouldn’t be a political journalist in the country who would deny her an interview. She should step up and explain herself on national tv. Let’s see how it goes.

    Said Scott Morrison with Stuart Robert and Ben Morton standing behind him. Says it all, really.

  3. In the past the leftward candidate usually won the debate.
    I’m having difficulty imagining Albanese can win a Sky News debate against Morrison. Booby traps will be laid against the former everywhere while the latter will get a walk in the park. I reckon Coalition are still 60%+ to form government.

  5. There is plenty that Labor could do in government to help people cope with the cost of living:

    1/ Make all forms of education and training (including early childhood education) completely free by including them in the public education systems. Increase funding to the state and territory governments so that their public schooling systems can be upgraded, expanded, and made genuinely free (no fees for parents to pay whatsoever). Cancel all outstanding student debt. Abolish fees for TAFE and university study.

    2/ Make all forms of health care free by including them in the public health care systems. This would involve increased federal grants to the state and territory governments.

    3/ Invest heavily in grid scale renewable electricity generation and battery storage. Make renewable electricity completely free to households.

    4/ Make public transport free by funding local and state governments to upgrade and expand their public transport systems.

    5/ Enact a national rent freeze until the federal government can increase the amount of new housing for first home buyers and the amount of public rental housing to the levels needed to provide everyone with secure tenure to housing. Enact a national tenancy law that massively upgrades tenants’ rights – with the right to lifelong tenancy at the centre of the reform. Hammer the theme that everybody needs housing while nobody needs to be a landlord, and base all policies related to housing, taxation, bank credit, land use, and property development on that principle. Place progressively stronger restrictions on the right to purchase investment properties. Frame the accumulation of investment properties correctly as a form of hoarding that harms the national interest.

    6/ Use competition policy to dismantle cartels and reduce the price-setting power of large suppliers of essential goods and services.

    7/ Invest in local capacity to manufacture electric cars on a large scale. Subsidize the purchase of electric cars until the prices fall to current prices for equivalent petrol vehicles. Ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 onwards.

    8/ Increase all Centrelink social security payments – the Age Pension, the Disability Support Pension, Jobseeker, student allowance, carer’s allowance – to $620 per week for a single person. This would place everybody above the poverty line based on the Henderson Report methodology.

  6. Freya Stark @ #1053 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 9:41 pm

    In the past the leftward candidate usually won the debate.
    I’m having difficulty imagining Albanese can win a Sky News debate against Morrison. Booby traps will be laid against the former everywhere while the latter will get a walk in the park. I reckon Coalition are still 60%+ to form government.

    Are you American?

  7. Bystander at 8.52pm re Katter

    In recent weeks Scomo went to Katter territory and announced $5bn for a dam. Katter was furious, criticised the design, indicated the gov had misled him and said he was considering withholding support for the govt.

    If – heaven forbid – we end up with a hung parliament, I don’t believe Katter is certain to support the Coalition, especially if they’re led by Morrison.

    Katter gets on better with Albo. When Albo nominated for ALP leader in 2019, Katter was very positive and said “You can have a beer with Albo!”

    The campaign images we’ve seen of Albo cheerfully interacting with normal people are evidence of one of his campaign weapons – interpersonal relationships.

  16. Angus Taylor will not release the modelling he’s basing his scare campaign on. Labor have and The Australia Institute have this to say:

  17. You know what usually works to help governments put in place effective reforms to services?

    Having political capital to spend.

    How does one collect such capital?

    Win.

  18. @jt1983:

    “ But you’ve made your point. I disagree a) there’s no economic message b) it needs to be front and centre for Labor to win. We’ll see who’s correct.”

    My points really are about risk management. It is possible for Albo and Labor to win without an overarching economic narrative, but THAT seems to be an extremely risky approach. The current strategy seems to rely upon Morrison being so hated that just turning up will be enough. What if it turns out that Morrison isn’t hated (even if he ain’t loved or even respected much) outside the elites inner city and inner burbs bubble? What if the punters in the key seats simply look at Labor and see nothing but static on their key issues and conclude ‘better the devein you know: at least the Liberals are better at managing money.”

    Ps. I agree: Kevin07s ‘economic conservative’ line was pure Kabuki theatre. BUT it did serve a purpose. An important purpose. Albo seems as exposed as Shorten on that front, IMO.

  20. C@t, it’s not an entirely useless poster. Plenty of people who live in marginals work in central Sydney. Unlike say Boston where nowhere in commuting range is really in play (excepting southern New Hampshire).

  22. hazza,

    Two things about that interview are:

    1 Waleed skewered him good and proper.
    2. Why are old farts like Morriss still getting a gig?

  25. The Herald editorial leaves nothing unsaid that needed to be said:

    “We believe in the inalienable rights and freedoms of all peoples.” It is a powerful declaration and the very first words that set out the Liberal Party’s core beliefs. They should be kept in mind when examining the controversy over the Liberal candidate for the formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Warringah, which was held by former prime minister Tony Abbott until his defeat by independent Zali Steggall in 2019.

    … Her comments are disgraceful. Whatever your views may be on the debate over gender rights and women in sport – and there are a variety – such hurtful, offensive and overblown language should be condemned. She is using a public debate as a pretext to utter offensive lies. Her statements offer no insight or empathy, no nuance, and therefore do not contribute to the discussion.

    Deves has apologised, saying in a statement that: “In my dedication to fighting for the rights of women and girls, my language has on occasion been unacceptable.” But these were not one-off statements and they were not historical. They were consistent and recent. And on Monday she went on the offensive, saying in an email to party members she was “not going anywhere”, deriding her critics as “parts of the left media and twittersphere”.

    When Pauline Hanson, then a Liberal candidate for the seat of Oxley, made contentious comments in 1996 about First Nations peoples, then opposition leader John Howard was quick to disendorse her. He recognised that housing a person making racist comments in his party damaged his electoral chances. Deves, by contrast, has attracted the ongoing backing of Morrison and former prime ministers Tony Abbott and John Howard, even as several Liberal MPs have called for her to be axed from the ticket.

    Most forthright has been NSW Treasurer Matt Kean, who told ABC radio on Tuesday morning that Deves was “not fit for office” and his party was not a place for “bile and bigotry”. But by the afternoon, Morrison had doubled downed on his support for Deves, making her statements a free speech issue. “I’m not going to allow her to be silenced,” he said.

    The Herald disagrees with the prime minister in the strongest possible terms. That the leader of a mainstream party in Australia that trumpets “the inalienable rights and freedoms of all peoples” is willing to look the other way while Deves unfairly targets trans people is a stain on the party that will not be erased for some time.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/candidate-s-distasteful-comments-are-a-stain-on-the-liberal-party-20220419-p5aeln.html

  26. If Labor wins government next month, they need to toughen their proposed anti-corruption commission to have the power to impose serious jail time, as well as set up a commission into media bias and journalistic integrity. The media will scream “government censorship” which is all the more reason why it’s important to use up political capital on it. I don’t think the censorship line will be very effective since successive polls show mainstream journalists are trusted only a little more than bankers and used car salesmen.

    Australia needs major reform if it is to successfully navigate the challenges ahead. We’re currently sailing towards the iceberg full steam ahead.

  27. Want a perfect recipe for hate? Pick a minority that can’t defend themselves and no-one knows, and explain to everyone why they should be hated because they’re ‘taking advantage’ of some other cohort that they don’t know.

  29. The bloke in the Hunter looks like he could easily beat ScoMo in an eating competition, quite possibly by eating Scomo!

  31. Nicholas
    A few days ago you gave your formula of how to entice doctors into salaried positions to boost public health.
    The problem is that not only do those award positions (which you thought were ott) already exist but the awards are far more generous.
    And still in many specialties it is impossible to attract specialists from private practice into salaried jobs

  32. Chris at 10.00pm

    Truly independent anti corruption commissions can’t impose any sentence on anyone.

    They investigate and turn over evidence to the relevant Director of Public Prosecutions. Any judging and sentencing is, and has to be, done through the courts system.

    I do, however, have a list of public figures who, IMHO, could do with some jail time…

  33. On Insiders, three days ago, Hartcher, Probyn and Maiden all agreed Albanese’s “gaffe” could be a pivotal moment in the Federal election. They’re all good journos, but seem prone to hyperbole based on the thinnest of evidence. Locked in the moment, seduced by the sexy, the search for the mystical all conquering ‘gaffe’ that will somehow swing a nation’s political history. Immune to the broader sweep of consistent polling showing a government on the nose.

    But hey ho all three will be up again soon with some compelling analysis of why either leader is now ‘on the nose’. And I’ll hazard a guess none will repeat their analysis of the ‘gaffe’.

  36. Ugh, a moment of weakness causes me to venture down the “View Comments” rabbit hole once more, and as usual, the Complacency Trolls don’t disappoint.

    As a whole, I’d say I disagree with a touch over 50% of the opinions that Andrew Earlwood expresses in these threads, but violate me in the ear with a backfiring hedge-trimmer if he hasn’t perfectly articulated my incredulity and frustration at the ALP’s perennial insistence on meekly accepting as utterly incontestable and axiomatic the Coalition’s assertions of being superior economic managers.

    The Complacency Trolls genuinely expect the rest of us to believe it to be but mere coincidence that the ONE election that Labor has won in almost 30 years – only ONE out of the past nine (quite possibly soon to be ten), for Gough’s sake* – also just so happened to be the only one at which Labor’s campaign machine actually bothered to tackle head-on the falsehoods regarding their ability to manage money.

    As our esteemed moderator himself said during the 2010 campaign: “They have a good story to tell on the economy, but it never occurred to me that they wouldn’t bother telling it”. (Tut tut, William, you bed-wetting, concern-trolling LNP operative, you.) And more than a decade later, here we are, still stuck in this very same rut.

    Yeah, Labor still have just over a month to start standing up for themselves against these falsehoods – to run a 2007-style campaign as opposed to a 2019-style one – but the trouble is that they evidently have no intention whatsoever of doing so, if the typically asinine ad hominem responses to Andrew in here are any indication.

    The willingness to attack Andrew for what I can only consider to be displaying the very plainest of common sense, while turning a blind eye to, or even condoning, the outrageous tinfoil-hattery of Schrodinger’s Cat and “Meguire” Scott**, does more to kill my optimism about this election’s outcome than a hundred bad polls could ever do.

    *Seriously, people, NINE FREAKING LOSSES OUT OF TEN. ONE FREAKING WIN IN THIRTY YEARS. You find me a successful workplace where a track record of that nature would satisfy the KPIs for a single one of the employees. No, that employee would quite rightly be given their marching orders, if only because it would be abundantly clear by that point that their heart wasn’t in their work and they had absolutely no desire to pick up their act.

    **Yes, yes, Scott, I know: “lol itsthevibe”

  37. Vic,

    The explanation will be she is personally supporting a person and not the Party.

    There is no Liberal Party signage.

  42. ”
    Rossmoresays:
    Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 10:05 pm
    On Insiders, three days ago, Hartcher, Probyn and Maiden all agreed Albanese’s “gaffe” could be a pivotal moment in the Federal election. They’re all good journos, but seem prone to hyperbole based on the thinnest of evidence. Locked in the moment, seduced by the sexy, the search for the mystical all conquering ‘gaffe’ that will somehow swing a nation’s political history. Immune to the broader sweep of consistent polling showing a government on the nose.

    But hey ho all three will be up again soon with some compelling analysis of why either leader is now ‘on the nose’. And I’ll hazard a guess none will repeat their analysis of the ‘gaffe’.
    ”

    No matter how many times these so called ‘experts’, ‘commentators’ and ‘Influencers’ get it wrong they will be called to discuss same/ another issue on these TV shows and/or write about them in Newspapers and magazines. They will get their fat cheques from these writings and talking whether they turn out to be right or wrong.
    And believe me this is not a Australian phenomenon. It happens in every democratic country whether it is US, UK, India, France and so on and so forth, the consequences of which are that people are losing faith in our Institutions, politicians and political processes and systems and we are not served well because of that and the vicious circle continues.

  43. And still in many specialties it is impossible to attract specialists from private practice into salaried jobs

    The nature of public health care isn’t static – it can be modified – and so can health care practitioners’ perceptions of the appeal of working in public health care. Building up the capabilities of the public health care systems over time, increasing the range and volume and quality of services that they provide, improving the practice of multi-disciplinary shared care, etc can create a self-fulfilling momentum in favour of more private practitioners joining its ranks. I work in a multi-disciplinary team in Queensland’s public mental health care system. I get to work alongside excellent medical, allied health, and peer practitioners. One is the eminent psychiatrist Manaan Kar Ray, one of the world’s foremost experts in the field of suicide prevention. He is one of many high-flying practitioners I know who choose to work in the public system – and that is despite its current significant limitations. Imagine what would be possible if its capabilities were upgraded.

  44. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 9:42 pm
    poroti @ #1042 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 9:35 pm

    C@t

    of the Labor faith
    There’s ya problem. You think of it as a religion. So it’s ‘death to the infidels and heretics’ eh .
    Bullshit”
    ————————
    Never let a stranger into your house, into your cab or into your heart. Unless that stranger is a friend of Labor. And if that stranger is a friend of Labor he is the only friend you got”.

  47. I do you agree with AE that there should be over-arching economic narrative (as Keating said in his earlier musings) that public can latch on to. And it can be woven by telling how they will reduce cost of living by renewal energy, Aged care and Child care policies. Hence reassuring people that although interest rates will rise they will keep downward pressure on pressure on cost of living.

  48. Great move to launch in WA. Very smart.

    SfM may try Brisbane (or Warringah)

    Went to Rudds’ launch in Brisbane in 2007.

    Was a great feeling. Plenty of Tory freaks outside to rain pox on. Some Greenies too.

    All in all good a good day and worth the effort.

  49. Mick,

    It’s not 7 dimensional chess.

    Look at the polls. Look at the feel of the day.

    Everything else will take care of itself.

  50. ”
    Upnorthsays:
    Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 10:34 pm
    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 9:42 pm
    poroti @ #1042 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 9:35 pm

    C@t

    of the Labor faith
    There’s ya problem. You think of it as a religion. So it’s ‘death to the infidels and heretics’ eh .
    Bullshit”
    ————————
    Never let a stranger into your house, into your cab or into your heart. Unless that stranger is a friend of Labor. And if that stranger is a friend of Labor he is the only friend you got”
    ”

    That is crazy. If you don’t want to “stranger into your house, into your cab or into your heart” that is your prerogative. If that stranger knows your weakness of allowing strangers who is a friend of Labor, then that stranger will exploit your weakness to gain access into your home, cab or heart and rob you blind or even kill you if the stranger is evil.
    For what ever it is worth don’t ever make Labor a cult.

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