The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
214,000 extra people on the electoral roll in one day alone, you would think most of them are young people and either Labor or Greens or Teal voters ????
That indicates srongly to me, the electorate wants a change of Government. !
“I don’t think we know how UAP, Liberal Democrats and whoever takes the place of the Centre Alliance Senators, will shake out.”
UAP are a hopeless case, surely. Will they be even vaguely competitive outside Qld? They can’t compete with PHON there. But in any case UAP and LDP surely can only take seats from LNP, so again it only matters if the Right get four somewhere (unlikely) or two Territory (even more unlikely)
It’s the last part that matters – who replaces the CA/Patrick Senators. If LNP recover a spot then it’s a problem but if not I’d be shocked if such a Senator agreed to flush the FCIAC because Morrison asked nicely.
Reminder that people claimed the huge early vote in 2019 meant that there was a change coming.
In reality the early vote showed a larger swing against Labor than on the day votes.
In the context of % of the population and vs. new enrolments at previous elections, how high is that 214,000 figure? I mean it’s a big number, I get that. But is that par for an Australian election, above/below?
If Labor wins government and faces a blocking majority in the Senate, all they need to do is legislate a couple of their most popular policies in the HoR and dare the Senate to reject them twice or face a double dissolution.
1934pc @ #693 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 4:51 pm
Google it, mate !
C@t
And a complete trivialisation of a complex period in our nation’s parliamentary history.
_______________________________________
If you want complete trivialisation of anything complex, Rex is your man.
Ch 10 news preview: Pushing line that a hung parliament most likely “as support for the major parties remains weak”.
Seems to be the line being pushed by MSM groupspeak. Perhaps in cahoots with PMO which is trying frantically to avoid demoralised Liberal members and supporters.
Wat Tyler…..sorry, cant help…..I very rarely watch free to air TV any more….If myself and Mrs Beagle settle down to watch something, its on Netflix….we like long running shows like GOT or Vikings etc.
I saw a few Mr X corflutes down in Southern Adelaide….none here in the north or NE which is my usual haunts
Freya Stark
Macquarie is made up of the tourism/tree changer Blue Mountains region and the outer suburban/agricultural Hawkesbury region – it is most definitely not a “rust belt” seat.
Hunter more closely resembles that description, but ignores that the seat includes large parts of the outer suburbs of Newcastle, making it a very hard seat for the LNP to win.
Couldn’t it just be the case that the media are incompetent, rather than some grand scheme to hoodwink the public?
Of course the Cashless Welfare Card will be expanded. It makes no economic sense otherwise. It’s hugely expensive to run by all accounts and needs scale, which I am sure that the Coaition would be all too willing to provide, given the chance. At the very least, all unemployment benefits, in line with the Coalition’s policy of attacking unemployment by making the experience as demeaning and stressfull as possible. It will be further expanded after that, given that very powerful and well-funded vested interests will be invested in its expansion. The Indue Card will be the 21st Century Workhouse if we allow it.
Xenu, the ‘hung parliament’ narrative serves 2 purposes:
1) gives journos something to discuss other than the minutiae they are fixated on; and
2) Morrison desperately needs to cling onto something
The polls have been stuck on about a 6 point spread for ages … and don’t much look like budging a great deal. Hung parliament is his ‘bloody fingernail’ attempt to hang onto the cliff that looms
Thanks anyway, Beaglieboy. And I’m the same. The only time I really see FTA TV is if it’s on in the background in a public place or someone else’s house, or sometimes when they’re telecasting sports I care about.
SA Labor have been sending me some very interesting emails lately 🙂
citizen @ #700 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 4:55 pm
We’ve seen this before from the establishment.
Create a sense of chaos about a minority Govt to intimidate voters to remain with the establishment.
In reality, the establishment has delivered the chaos and catastrophe.
Plenty of other countries work well with minority Govts. Google it, mate.
@Itep – you really are a wet-blanket sometimes.
Having such a strong level of enrolment is fantastic 96% of eligible adults is amazing – regardless of what it means electorally this year, which is probably not much either way.
@Rex – it depends on the make-up of the minority Rexy.
Interesting the media assured us last week that the election was over already and their man Morrison would win, now they’re warning of a hung parliament.
ltep says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 4:58 pm
Couldn’t it just be the case that the media are incompetent, rather than some grand scheme to hoodwink the public?
_______________________________
Remember the recent exchange between the editor of the SMH and his reporters about his insistence that the NSW rail lock-out be presented as a strike?
Steve777 @ #709 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 5:00 pm
What people seem to have missed about putting everyone on the Cashless Welfare Card is that it fully privatises Welfare payments.
Evan Parsons @ #715 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 5:02 pm
Any port in a storm for the CPG, EvanP. 😐
C@t, no flies on our ALP team down here……Its a well oiled machine, always has been
I’d expect a Murdoch dirt campaign now against Teal candidates, labelling them “Labor stooges”, along with attacks on Zali Steggell, Helen Haines and Andrew Wilkie.
Already heard Jim Wilson, known Morrison cheerleader, on 2GB this afternoon demanding that independents reveal who they’d back in a hung parliament.
BeaglieBoy @ #719 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 5:04 pm
Cute as a button, too. 🙂
Am in Reid. Got a glossy card in letterbox today from Catholics angry at Fiona Martin for her betrayal of their religious reforms bill. In my part of Reid is a fair few Greek & Italian families of catholic persuasion. If ppl pay attention Martin is not only being rubbished by some of the Lib branches, but by catholics in general.
Crikey doesn’t miss them, this is the opening to an article:
“The Liberal Party wants us to ‘look at the facts’. But just whose facts? Of nine claims in the Liberals’ new ad campaign, one is correct, two are deceptive and six are barefaced lies”.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/04/19/liberal-party-ad-facts-challenged/?utm_source=pushengage&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=pn
“Coalition alone should have blocking majority if they get 3 in each state (doable). Will only fall to needing PHON to block if they miss 3 in 2 states (unlikely to miss it in more states than that).”
If the LNP get three in Queensland then PHON will not get another – I am confident the right won’t be getting four in Qld this time.
So as I say, it is really up to SA – if the LNP regain a seat there, then sure, it’s a problem.
I don’t predict it, and it’s unlikely, but it is not *crazy* to think Vic might return 3 ALP + 1 Green this time.
C@t….I’m assuming you mean Mali, but I shall take that compliment vicariously
Just sent the following to FactCheck. Let’s see if they properly investigate it or just cover it up.
The ABC has claimed that the ALP is making spurious claims that the Coalition wishes to move all pensions onto the cashless debit card. It is recorded in Hansard that it IS the intention to do so and this claim was made by a member of the current Liberal government in the current term;
Also below is the statement by Senator Anne Ruston (Lib) during the term of the current government that it is the intention of the current government to move all pensions to the cashless debit card.
This clearly nakes the ABC story false and misleading.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/medicare-aged-pension-energy-scare-campaigns-federal-election/100998804
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/18/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-14/comment-page-15/#comment-3870856
Potential Teal voters, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, are considerably more likely to be 9fax/ABC/10 media consumers rather than Rupert and son/2GB media consumers.
Barrie re Ms Deves withdrawing from the community debate.
Further to last – checked the fine print …. Was from ACL so not just catholics!
Neighbourly bugs:
Sorry to disagree with Cat@ (as I rarely do), but I would strongly recommend not entering the neighbour’s property to seek the cause. 1. Inexperts will not find any of the possible causative arthropods, even if present; 2. You will be the non-medically / non-psychiatric trained audience for ever greater complaints, for a long time. Been there, done that. A sympathetic ear across a fence is best.
I could recount the matchboxes sent as containing evidence of the cause, containing scabs, pubic hair, dandruff, spiders’ webs, vacuum cleaner debris and worse (but never a culprit) but this is not the place.
Who owns Indue pty Ltd ?
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 4:50 pm
A State of North Queensland defined as North of 22°S (just South of Sarina) would contain Cairns (population ~ 150K) and Townsville (~ 180 K), plus a string of coastal towns (mostly ~2-10K) and a huge, sparsely populated inland back yard (biggest town Mt Isa ~ 20K). It might have a population comparable to that of Tasmania.
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Do we get a guaranteed minimum Lower House seats and Senators? And two houses of State Parliament like Tasmania? If so I’m all for it. Everyone can be a politician!!!!!
The Victorian Libs tried to pass this photo off as the worst road in Victoria.
Unfortunately for them, it’s actually from Ukraine, before the Russian invasion.
D Day minus 32
Bluey has been distracted with a make and mend on his rock hole today so was not all that focused on the campaign.
That said, Labor has its mongrel mojo. The journos are getting a bit of blow back. Laborites are all piling in on team Morrison which is increasingly mired in a mish mash of own goals, false accusation and internal contradictions.
Deves continues to be political pus. Morrison may just regret picking at the trans scab. It is always nice when a rancid Liberal dog whistle makes the dogs snarl on Liberal side. Bluey reckons ‘How good is that?’ Morrison won’t silence his captain’s pick: a divisive, bitter and twisted trans basher. The NSW Division of the Liberal Party is apoplectic already. Bluey reckons that Deves should stop apologizing and start repeating what she really thinks.
It amazes Bluey that anyone at all in Australia can possibly be satisfied with the prime minister of the most corrupt and incompetent government since Australia. Bluey reckons that the Murdocracy must be the opium of the masses.
Bluey is getting more varied fare from Facebook. Advance Australia, abusing the ‘extreme Greens’ meme, has it in for Pocock. The Greens, Labor and the other Indy all cop a spray abusing the extreme Greens meme. A couple of scruffy guitar players make some sort of climate message. Someone has monstered Cash along the lines of an hour of work a week equalling employment.
Bluey notes that the Coalition continue to shovel out the pork like money grows on trees.
Another venal and stupid bit of pork barrelling by Morrison and Joyce. The problem is supposed to be cracking the market to become a farmer. An element in that policy problem? Farming is heavily over capitalized and debt servicing is a major challenge because of this. So what do Joyce and Morrison come up with? A subsidy (loan guarantee for 40% of the loan) that primes the farm market. Bluey reckons this one is on par with the announced to subsidize house buying by people with a 2% deposit at a time when interest rate rise is baked in and when the house market has peaked.
Bluey notes that Taylor has taken a rest from implementing schemes to prolong the life of fossil burning to move seamlessly into making up a comprehensive farrago of lies about Labor’s climate policy. Labor promptly fed the FUD straight back down Taylor’s political throat. Bluey reckons that Taylor would be fairly keen not to have a new administration looking at a certain land parcel of allegedly illegal ecological destruction.
Bluey increasingly believes that Labor will have a majority government.
Score for the day: Morrison O, Albanese .5, the rest 0
Cumulative score: Morrison 2, Albanese 2.5, Joyce .5. Odds and sods, zero.
214,000 extra people on the electoral roll is about 11 thousand per electorate, assuming they are all young and vote with a 60% split, that’s maybe something, or it may just wash out as nothing.
Twiggy Forrest is reputed to own In due, isn’t he?
Former SA deputy premier Vickie Chapman will quit politics within weeks.
Only a few weeks after the SA election which will trigger a bye-election in her seat of Bragg.
Upnorth
Love your comments about life in North Queensland.
An old Cairns lad myself, I’m counting down the days to my retirement so I can leave NSW and return to the land of mud crabs and sugar cane champagne, and yes, wandering through Woolies in just me stubbies.
Ah, the life.
Can’t wait!
Goll @ #731 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 5:13 pm
Larry Anthony and Twiggy Forrest?
Nah
North Queensland missed its chance in 1901:
Section 7 of the constitution : senate
But until the Parliament of the Commonwealth otherwise provides, the Parliament of the State of Queensland, if that State be an Original State, may make laws dividing the State into divisions and determining the number of senators to be chosen for each division, and in the absence of such provision the State shall be one electorate.
Until the Parliament otherwise provides there shall be six senators for each Original State. The Parliament may make laws increasing or diminishing the number of senators for each State, but so that equal representation of the several Original States shall be maintained and that no Original State shall have less than six senators.
Section 24 House
But notwithstanding anything in this section, five members at least shall be chosen in each Original State.
Section 121 New States
The Parliament may admit to the Commonwealth or establish new States, and may upon such admission or establishment make or impose such terms and conditions, including the extent of representation in either House of the Parliament, as it thinks fit.
Got to be an original state to get the goodies
And in any case the Southerners would have to let you go
Section 124
A new State may be formed by separation of territory from a State, but only with the consent of the Parliament thereof, and a new State may be formed by the union of two or more States or parts of States, but only with the consent of the Parliaments of the States affected.
GG
Did the fibs really do this?
The enrolment numbers are very good news. I’d been concerned that the timing of the closing of the rolls around Easter would cause people to miss out. And maybe Liberal strategists thought so too. And maybe in an era of paper forms and stamps and postboxes, it would have done.
Meanwhile did I read it right that the South Australian Liberals, fresh from having their asses kicked, have chosen as leader a man who said to forget the separation of church and state?
What a gift for Malinauskas.
“Former SA deputy premier Vickie Chapman will quit politics within weeks.
Only a few weeks after the SA election which will trigger a bye-election in her seat of Bragg.”
That’s predictable given the hot water she was in leading up to the election, and if the SA Libs replace her with another religious-right nutjob we’ll get our first glimpse at how much of a gift for Malinauskas it is….
”
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 3:30 pm
Airlie Walsh
@AirlieWalsh
· 1h
Yesterday was the single biggest day for electoral enrolment in Australian history with 214,000 enrolments. More than 96% of eligible Australians are enrolled to vote. @9NewsA
”
Looks like good sign because about 65% of 18-24 weren’t enrolled before yesterday as person Channel 9.
What a difference 24 hours makes on PB!
Holdenhillbilly @ #740 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 4:57 pm
I was literally about to post about Speirs being elected Liberal leader and was going to ask whether Chapman will follow through on her threat to quit if he’s elected leader.
FWIW, I think this is a good thing. While I am no fan of Speirs and think a lot of the points she makes about him are valid, her time has passed and she’s a bit of an albatross now (not that I care too much for the health of the Liberal Party)
JenAuthorsays:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 5:25 pm
“Twiggy Forrest is reputed to own In due, isn’t he?”
Twiggy doesn’t own Indue but is a staunch supporter of the cashless debit card.
Indue is owned by a mob with strong connections to the LNP, the main one of the owners being the son of Doug Anthony of National Party fame.
At $10,000 per card for admin fees per annum it’s not a bad lurk to be in, particularly if you’re connected to the LNP.
Another matter for Labors FICAC.
Been There says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 5:27 pm
Upnorth
Love your comments about life in North Queensland.
An old Cairns lad myself, I’m counting down the days to my retirement so I can leave NSW and return to the land of mud crabs and sugar cane champagne, and yes, wandering through Woolies in just me stubbies.
Ah, the life.
Can’t wait!
————————
Welcome back Comrade.
As Graeme Conners sang “I get a little further North each year”.
https://youtu.be/P2MOfFD1Z_c