Resolve Strategic: Coalition 35, Labor 34, Greens 11

The first campaign poll shows the scars of Labor’s troubled first week, but still suggests they lead on two-party preferred.

The Age/Herald has the first poll conducted during the campaign period, from Resolve Strategic, which finds the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 35%, Labor down four to 34%, the Greens steady on 11%, One Nation up two to 4% (the accompanying report notes that part of the increase is down to rounding) and the United Australia Party up one to 4%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party results, but this pans out at 52-48 to Labor when preference flows from 2019 applied.

With Resolve Strategic providing state breakdowns only for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the damage is distinctly concentrated in its “rest of Australia”, with the Coalition up six to 36% and Labor down fully ten points to 37%, although it was more the previous result that was the anomaly than this one. Similarly, dramatic change on the gender breakdowns reflects an unusual result last time when the Coalition did better among women than men. I would estimate the current poll’s two-party results as 50.6-49.4 to the Coalition among men and 54.2-45.8 to Labor among women.

On personal ratings, positive movement for Scott Morrison (up five on approval to 44% and down six on disapproval to 47%) is greater than negative movement for Anthony Albanese (down three on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 44%). Resolve Strategic’s leadership rating questions unusually ask how the leader has performed “in recent weeks”. Scott Morrison has opened up a 38-30 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 37-36 last time.

The accompanying report reveals that 27% rate themselves uncommitted, up from 21% a fortnight ago. Many of these would presumably have ended up being allocated through a follow-up question asking to which party they were leaning (Resolve Strategic’s non-membership of the Australian Polling Council, which imposes transparency standards on its members, means this cannot be known for sure). (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that this refers to the pollster’s “how firm are you with your vote” question, which directs respondents to identify as either committed or uncommitted. Resolve Strategic does not provide respondents with an option to identify as uncommitted and have their result counted in the survey, which critics say inflates the non-major party results.) The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1404.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 35, Labor 34, Greens 11”

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  3. From previous thread MuskieMP: Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Liberal/National 34%, ALP 36%. There is a -7% swing against the Coalition but just a 2.6% swing in favour of the ALP

    “While independent candidates are taking on Liberals with high-profile campaigns in key city seats, support for independents nationwide was unchanged at 9 per cent. Support for “other” candidates rose from 3 to 4 per cent.”

    The Teals are sucking the life out of the LNP. What say-you Mr Speaker?

  6. 27% uncommitted – Albo got his bad week over and done with. Now 4 bad weeks SfM and it will be a bloodbath for the Tories.

    BTW wonder who the masked Tory MP is named in the Miller legal case is? Historical Sexual Abuse. Doesn’t sound good.

  8. Could someone that understands age based voting look at the Resolve breakdown… looks dodgy as hell to me, compare Ind vs LNP , given that Ind are standing in LNP seats.
    It’s flat for Ind , huge jump in +55 for LNP…makes no sense

  9. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 6:16 pm
    Did someone say minority Govt ..?
    ————————————

    Not with the Lib/nats combined primary vote 35% that is a 6.5% swing against them

    Lib/nats will lose over 25 seats with a swing like that

  11. Yet again… a poll showing a slide for ALP but the Libs aren’t really benefitting.

    Just as telling in my mind.

    “Disastrous poll” that would have still have the Libs defeated pretty badly. (I said annihilated in the other thread, but overstated).

    Will be interesting to see where we are in a fortnight.

  12. Vanbadam twitter

    I don’t know who needs to hear this, but the story of this election is Liberal PM Scott Morrison posing for a photo op at a Rheem factory that’s sacking a third of its workforce and offshoring those Australian jobs to Vietnam.

    The workers are trying to tell you. Listen. #auspol https://t.co/6mniYK8e0n

  13. Pi says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 6:20 pm
    From previous thread MuskieMP: Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Liberal/National 34%, ALP 36%. There is a -7% swing against the Coalition but just a 2.6% swing in favour of the ALP

    The Teals are sucking the life out of the LNP. What say-you Mr Speaker?
    ———————————————

    The trend from the 2016 federal election
    Labor gain 1% and gain 14 seats

    Lib/nats combined primary vote decline 3.5% and lost 15 seats

    ——————————————————–
    if the 2022 federal election followed the trend
    Labor gain 2.6% = likely gain 22+ seats
    Lib/nats decline 6.5% = lost of 25 +seats

  18. Well, not surprisingly, a bit of duco of the Albanese model….
    I suppose part of the kitchen sink did the damage.
    But for all the the efforts of the the LNP, one lousy percentage point increase and then, if this holds to election eve, a comfortable win for Labor…
    As pundits have pointed out on many occasions the Preferred PM figure does not win elections….
    And, just so many undecideds………
    Labor still in front – by some margin, the LNP still way behind and this despite a feral press for Albanese….
    No wonder Morrison is losing his marbles Mr Speaker…..

  19. I just find it impossible to believe that 1/4 of the population are uncommitted at this stage.

    It does seem extraordinary given the last 6 years.

  20. Now comes the shrill from the RWNJs all over this poll like ants to honey picking it apart and forecasting doom the Labor Party campaign and, worse than that, Labor Party bed wetters spitting the dummy and giving Albo and Labor free advise about they could, would, should do to recover of just throwing the towel in. Just don’t.

    This is one questionable polling source that you would be foolish to swallow on it’s own. Wait and see what Newspoll has to say before you put up any white flags. Make of it what y0u will. I treat Resolve polls with the same disregard that I do the Morgan polls.

  21. “I just find it impossible to believe that 1/4 of the population are uncommitted at this stage.”

    Could be rusted on Tories wavering towards a Teal, RWNJs unable to make up their minds on whether to go PHON or UAP this time and usual Greens voters thinking it might be better to go Labor this time just in case. I think with all those factors you could almost get there.

  24. The Resolve poll was conducted from Monday to Saturday. That is, it included the full period of the MSM viciously attacking Albo and giving SfM neutral to positive treatment.

  25. You also don’t put up white flags five weeks out and when the Libs are now consistently in the mid-30s on primary.

  27. We need to see Newspoll and some QLD & WA state polling before drawing any conclusions as to the state of the campaign.

  28. If the lib/nats combined primary vote35% the 2pp definitely will not be 48%

    The likely 2pp for the lib/nats will be 44/45%

    I dont think the Lib/nats in a federal election ever got over 11% in 2pp

  30. Not great. Not terrible.

    We’re still in front, though 52-48 is certainly rather closer than I’m comfortable considering 2019.

    It’s also Resolve, of course, so should be taken with some salt as always. As I said on the last thread, this is actually a better result for Labor than the Resolve before last (in mid-February) when they had a primary of 33 compared to the Liberals 35.

  31. Going on the federal elections results – Where the lib/nats do poorly on 2pp

    Lib/nats combined primary vote 35% It looks more like a Labor 55% – 45%

  32. Looking at breakdowns;

    Primary ALP vote in ‘rest of australia’ (not Vic,NSW,QLD) dropped from 47% to 37%, apparently 20% of those ALP supporters changed their mind… But it went up by an equivalent amount Jan-Apr.

    Female support actually fell for LNP, went to IND/OTH
    Big drop on Primary ALP support of males, from 41% to 33%, which is 20% changing their mind.

    Maybe they got a bad sample of males from Tas/WA/SA ?

  33. Sorry, but isn’t this just a 1% move on 2PP?

    And couldn’t that in turn be interpreted as a crushing voter rejection of a bullshit media narrative?

    Just askin

  34. “ As usual Uhlmann is full of it.

    Hardly any movement to the Libs.

    That’s the story.”

    This is wishful thinking. Their number is slowing creeping up, as is ON and Palmer. If 27% of folk have not written off ScoMo as the charlatan and corrupt conman we all think he is by now (and his personal ratings are up up up) then. The chances of a majority of that 27% coming home to daddy by Election Day would appear to me to be astonishingly high.

    Albo and Labor needs discipline, a tight campaign focusing every thing on a crisp economic native that is at the moment sorely missing. I think that my hopes of Albo ands his team quickly getting their ducks in a row in that regard is wishful thinking on my part at the moment.

    3 more years. How much damage can Dutton do on national security and foreign affairs in that time?

  35. The Best 2pp result for the lib/nats was in the 2019 federal election

    Lib/nats combined primary vote 41.5 = 2pp 51.5%

  37. Scott

    If the lib/nats combined primary vote35% the 2pp definitely will not be 48%

    Oh, would you stop with this utter bullshit. There’s no magic number on the primary vote that a party has to hit to win the election. The Coalition can absolutely be reelected with primary of 35% if Labor also underperform on the primary vote.

  38. Medicare Reform
    I think i will accept the analysis of one of the world’s leading health economics units over an anonymous poster whose main concern, which condemns the whole system, seems to be that he was stung by a private surgeon.
    Here’s a hint: health funds provide increased payments for surgeons who don’t charge a gap – next time you need an operation your health fund or GP may be able to tell you which surgeons no-gap or ring around.

    Your attitude to the Canadian system is similar to that of many Americans who believe it is the best system in the world – and there is no doubt it is , provided your are not black, latinex or a poor white (30-40% of the population)

    Medicare has many problems but I rate improved access and equity particularly for the indigenous and regions as priorities compared to gaps for private patients. The most efficient way to reform Medicare is to combine the two systems. The private hospitals could be persuaded to do this but, going on what happened to the Rudd reforms, the state governments would object.

  39. Any result which gives a lib/nats higher 2pp in opinion poll results than they would receive at the actual election – Margin of 2-3% favours the lib/nats

  40. Resolve used to bounce around last year, showing some odd results. It got so I stopped sharing their results even when good for my side (Labor) because I didn’t trust them. They are not part of the polling council (unlike Newspoll, Ipsos & Essential), so we know less about their methods. I rate Newspoll & Ipsos the best horserace pollers right now. Essential is good for issue questions. Roy Morgan has odd results, leans Labor, and has respondant allocated prefs that are less reliable as a predictor than prefs as per last election. I’ll wait for Newspoll & Ipsos, and to a lesser extent Essential. However, I expect there is movement among the noise, but we need to take into account the last Newspoll may have already caught part of that move.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if every poller puts out a poll this week, regardless of the fact they used to skip Easter because so many people are away.

  43. Asha says:
    Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 6:44 pm
    Scott

    If the lib/nats combined primary vote35% the 2pp definitely will not be 48%
    Oh, would you stop with this utter bullshit. There’s no magic number on the primary vote that a party has to hit to win the election. The Coalition can absolutely be reelected with primary of 35% if Labor also underperform on the primary vote.
    —————–

    Sorry you are the one talking absolute garbage , if you think the liberal/nats who hold 75 seats with a primary vote of 41.5% = will gain seats with a possible 6.5% swing against them (35%) its insane

    Have look at recent federal elections and come back and point to where the Libs/nats have received more than 11% 2pp on top of the combined primary vote

  44. Definitely a bad week for Albo, who will need to rebuild Labor’s economic credibility quickly. One wild card coming up is the inflation numbers, which will be out after ANZAC day.

    One thing that’s still sticking out to me like a sore thumb though is that terrible LNP primary. It’s still so, so low. And resolve has consistently had federal Labor down in Victoria, which to me has never made sense. Unless the pollsters and parties know something that we don’t.

  46. Pollbludger really is a parallel universe. Anyone who thinks Albo and Labor have a hope needs to get out more.
    I hosted a lunch today with some lefty arty colleagues and none gave Albo a snowflake’s hope.

  48. Massola in effect saying that 6% have moved from Albo to undecided..

    Also of note: Morrison is leading Albanese as preferred PM by 38 to 30 per cent. Two weeks ago it was 37 to 36 per cent to Albanese. And the number of uncommitted voters has risen to 27 per cent, up from 21 per cent two weeks ago. @CroweDM reports

  49. Gender breakdown;
    M: LNP 38, ALP 33, GRN 9
    F: LNP 32, ALP 35, GRN 12
    So 6% drop in Females vote for LNP compared with Males, which is consistent with other polls AFAIK.
    A bit surprising that so much is going to GRN (3%) than ALP (2%), but thats neither here nor there.
    So seems about right to me.
    EDIT: there is some rounding in the GRN vote, F 12 + M 9, would give combined as 10.5, they have it at 11

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