The Age/Herald has the first poll conducted during the campaign period, from Resolve Strategic, which finds the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 35%, Labor down four to 34%, the Greens steady on 11%, One Nation up two to 4% (the accompanying report notes that part of the increase is down to rounding) and the United Australia Party up one to 4%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party results, but this pans out at 52-48 to Labor when preference flows from 2019 applied.
With Resolve Strategic providing state breakdowns only for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the damage is distinctly concentrated in its “rest of Australia”, with the Coalition up six to 36% and Labor down fully ten points to 37%, although it was more the previous result that was the anomaly than this one. Similarly, dramatic change on the gender breakdowns reflects an unusual result last time when the Coalition did better among women than men. I would estimate the current poll’s two-party results as 50.6-49.4 to the Coalition among men and 54.2-45.8 to Labor among women.
On personal ratings, positive movement for Scott Morrison (up five on approval to 44% and down six on disapproval to 47%) is greater than negative movement for Anthony Albanese (down three on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 44%). Resolve Strategic’s leadership rating questions unusually ask how the leader has performed “in recent weeks”. Scott Morrison has opened up a 38-30 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 37-36 last time.
The accompanying report reveals that 27% rate themselves uncommitted, up from 21% a fortnight ago. Many of these would presumably have ended up being allocated through a follow-up question asking to which party they were leaning (Resolve Strategic’s non-membership of the Australian Polling Council, which imposes transparency standards on its members, means this cannot be known for sure). (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that this refers to the pollster’s “how firm are you with your vote” question, which directs respondents to identify as either committed or uncommitted. Resolve Strategic does not provide respondents with an option to identify as uncommitted and have their result counted in the survey, which critics say inflates the non-major party results.) The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1404.
Agreed on comments that Labor needs to craft an effective economic narrative. They have so much potential ammunition, it’s just wild to me that they aren’t taking this path.
$1 trillion in waste, $55b in grants with littler to no oversight.
Labor’s policy settings of childcare, healthcare, energy, education, skills – all are great for strong economic growth. Why don’t they tie this together with a strong vision statement and hammer that home again and again?
Madness.
Undecided includes a whole lot of people thinking about voting for various right minor parties but not sure which, whether voting Labor or greens, whether to vote lnp or teal etc. Much lower number undecided on Labor v lnp.
But a lot of room for movement still in various directions.
Anyone who refers to so-called colleagues as ‘lefty arty colleagues’ has no interest in their opinions.
Grime – no one knows if Newspoll will be out, no online chatter yet.
Kevin estimates the Resolve TPP slightly differently.
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1515612898264903688
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
#ResolvePM L-NP 35 ALP 34 Green 11 ON 4 UAP 4 IND 9 other 4 . I get 52.5 (-3) to ALP by last-election preferences. Resolve appears to overestimate IND cf most other pollsters.
6:47 PM · Apr 17, 2022
Well – we knew what would come the moment there was a less pleasant poll… we knew, but yet somehow we’re surprised when it’s insufferable nonsense.
FIVE. WEEKS. For fuck’s sake.
GGGGG.
Albo pathetic campaigner and looking to lose the unloseable election all by himself.
Grime @ #50 Sunday, April 17th, 2022 – 6:52 pm
If there is it’ll be bad.
Get a grip people it’s over.
It was never on.
Spoke to a true believer friend today who is as angry as I am…….with Labor.
It was never going to be ALBO.
Accept it.
So now, after some here calling for an opinion poll, and one comes along, the call is now from one or two here . to wait for the other opinion polls because this one is kind of not credible…Give it a break……
One swallow does not a summer make, but if I were in the LNP shoes I would be worried on a number of fronts…
One is the slippage of votes to ON and the Palmer outfit – which may come back as preferences but maybe not….
The fact that not only is the LNP losing this kind of vote, but some Deep Blue Liberal seats are under siege by the Teals.
That pesky primary vote is still behind Labor and still way below where it needs to be for the LNP to win.
That after a week of free kicks from the media to Morrison he is still disliked by droves of the electorate and, with a whole lot of messy stuff for Morrison to deal with, why should anything get better for him?
The way this poll is being cheered up by the (again) LNP media is to cast it as “doom” for Labor, when indeed, the LNP looks in even more dire straits….
Labor can recover this week…but it is hard for the LNP to wipe out three years of trash government.
Having said this, Labor must be really dinkum now and go hard as hell………
They know who the enemy is, where the enemy is and what the enemy is trying to do….
Cut out the bloody Mr Nice Guy stuff……
Mundo – you are correct to note the Poll Bludger bubble, but I’d suggest that your luncheon companions also probably aren’t very representative of the electorate as a whole, simply because they were talking about the election this far out. I’d suggest your average disengaged swinging voter – the voters who will in the end decide this election, as they do any others that are close – won’t be paying much if any attention until after Anzac Day.
For sure, Labor and Albanese have had a less-than-stellar first week, and they have certainly created an opening for Morrison. But things aren’t terminal for them just yet, and if they play things vaguely competently from here, Labor should still be good enough to win.
“ Agreed on comments that Labor needs to craft an effective economic narrative. They have so much potential ammunition, it’s just wild to me that they aren’t taking this path.
$1 trillion in waste, $55b in grants with littler to no oversight.
Labor’s policy settings of childcare, healthcare, energy, education, skills – all are great for strong economic growth. Why don’t they tie this together with a strong vision statement and hammer that home again and again?
Madness.”
You’d think that Albo would have started on the front foot exactly one week ago with all of that: but he was ‘off’ from the get go, putting aside even gaff-gate and the risible MSM media pile-on. Shades of the first weeks of the 2019 campaign.
The LNP operatives are coming in and laying it thick and fast tonight. This, after a poll that was just released, that if it came about as the polling indicates, would lead to the LNP losing 25 seats.
What do you say Mr Speaker?
One criticism of labor last time was they shovelled out too many policies early in the campaign and didn’t build up to a strong crescendo. Maybe the plan is to ‘build’ momentum?
Holdenhillbilly @ #51 Sunday, April 17th, 2022 – 6:56 pm
NOoooo! Psephology is the way!
It’s not the vibe!
Scotty is Toast!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.TOAST I TELLS YA!!!!#$%&*()$%&^@#!@!!!!!
Mundo, we don’t care too much about Tasmania
All Sfm’s own work!
This is how the media work. Take gaffe, beat it to within an inch of its life, then credit it for a movement in the polls and congratulate themselves for their laser focus on what was obviously the big issue all along.
I look forward to another week of journos talking about nothing other than the gaffe while Morrison invents a few million new jobs that they don’t factcheck.
Mundo – most Labor supporters in this country are horribly pessimistic at all times about politics, saying Albo doesn’t have a hope is ludicrous.
I said I’d call it end of week one.
A carbon copy of 2019.
Miracle 2.0 here we come.
Over and out.
It’s not all doom and gloom. Essendon getting their pants pulled down by Freo. 🙂
Mundo, I really dont think politics should be your thing…..maybe try non-competative knitting or non-contact basket weaving
sprocket_ @ #59 Sunday, April 17th, 2022 – 6:59 pm
Bass and Braddon?
White feather Mundo goes to water again.
Looking back Resolve has a trend of looking better for the coalition compared to other polls, so I’ll wait to see how newspoll and essential see it. A ~52.5 ALP 2PP is still a Labor win.
Uhlmann calling this too close to call on this poll is a lol, Labor would very likely form a government on these numbers
Mundo says:
Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 6:50 pm
Pollbludger really is a parallel universe. Anyone who thinks Albo and Labor have a hope needs to get out more.
I hosted a lunch today with some lefty arty colleagues and none gave Albo a snowflake’s hope.
————————-
That’s a good result for Albo – wokeness is a turn off for most punters.
But you said “Over and out.” mundo?
For what it is worth, I am more optimistic than you are 🙂
Thank you mundo, the more you squeal and do your henny penny run around schtick the better I feel.
Keep it up.
Ch10 news reported Albo got a rockstar welcome at the Byron Blues Fest. Plenty of “lefty arty” types there I’d imagine.
The trend is 1% a week to the coalition and in 5 weeks that means 52-48 to the Government and another 3 years of opposition for the ALP.
Meanwhile amateur Albo is wasting time at a pop festival when he should be in marginal NSW/QLD/Vic seats and remembering Economics/Politics 101 answers like the inflation and unemployment rates.
Surely they have someone who is better than the last 2 numpties.
Jane Hume copping a flogging on the Project from Hamish McDonald and Lisa Wilkinson over the govt’s failure to legislate a federal ICAC.
1996 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 47.2% = 2pp 53.6%
1998 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 39.5%= 2pp 49%
2001 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 42.9% = 2pp 51%
2004 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 46.7%= 2pp 52.7%
2007 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 42.1% = 2pp 47.3%
2010 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 43.3% = 2pp 49.9%
2013 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 45.5% = 2pp 53.5%
2016 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 42.0% = 2pp 50.4%
2019 Federal Election result
Lib/nats combined primary vote 41.5% = 2pp 51.5%
@mundo – clearly your friends take the same path of least resistance and expose belly for pats at the first sign of pressure. Like a Labradoodle.
Labor could lose this – they always could. But acting like this pathetic headless chook is just ridiculous – you want to be right. I get you don’t want to invest should they lose and you’re disappointed and hurt. But some of us are carrying on, knowing the risk of pain and disappointment is real.
If we’re two weeks out and we’re 50/50… then I’ll start agreeing.
2019 made me better prepared should it happen again, not scared of it.
Now Ray Martin is grilling her over Deves, playing back her maiden speech where she called for positive social justice.
Mark Humphries is very sharp here.
https://twitter.com/i/status/870228170343038976
TBH I expected a greater movement to the LNP primary than just 1ppt, after all a week of gaffs, MSM barracking for SfM this has to be the lowest point for Labor in the campaign, and signs are the pace has improved in the last few days.
What is certain is the punters are not flocking back to SfM, after all the free kicks this week is this the best they can get?
Albo meanwhile is at Bluesfest tonight, got a huge reception by all reports.
As for the polls, Jim Chalmers at this point would wipe the floor with Morrison, but they are not about to change leaders, so better hope Albanese is much sharper next week and Labor has a more concise message to sell
What sticks out to me is what Briefly has been on about – the non-Liberal plurality.
Every person who does not put #1 in the Liberal Party candidates slot increases the leakage.
41.5 in 2019 to 35 in 2022 for the Coalition on primaries have gone elsewhere. How many will preference back? Whether UAP, PHoN, Independents – there is a reason they are not putting #1 in the Liberal column. They don’t like something. They don’t like their lived experience. They don’t like some personal impact of the last 3 years. They don’t like inaction on fires, pandemics, floods… they don’t like Morrison.
jt,
Mundo is a Labrdoodle without the doodle.
“ One criticism of labor last time was they shovelled out too many policies early in the campaign and didn’t build up to a strong crescendo. Maybe the plan is to ‘build’ momentum?”
One doesn’t need a collection of 300 policies to build momentum. one needs a crisp overarching narrative that various policies can be hung from, like baubles on a xmas tree. That’s how one goes about building momentum. look, everything was exactly ‘there’ for Albo – hatred of an old, incompetent, corrupt government, embodied in a fuck turd of a conman who’d well and truly lost the mob, with economic headwinds that could easily be sheeted home to the same, and then … from the gun, it appears that Albo has an empty cupboard.
Running a small target, kicking with the wind strategy is perfect: if only you have the big battalions to bring it home: BUT at the moment, Albo’s army looks to be stranded and on fire outside Kyiv.
@ Dr – I think THAT’S the key point.
Never ceases to amaze me how the so-called “friends of Labor” come on here to run the We’ll all be ruined line…..They are worse than genuine Liberal supporters…..
Upnorth,
Re your earlier post on Fauziah Ibrahim: I thought the same thing when I noted that she is originally from Singapore (that her conservative outlook is unsurprising). However, I would say that quite a few younger Singaporeans are developing slightly more progressive views than their parents. An example would be attitudes to the Government retaining Section 377A of the Penal Code, which outlaws male gay sex, (even though the official position of the authorities is that a prosecution would not be pursued). Plenty of younger Singaporeans would support a repealing of Section 377A. However, it’s hard to find many young people opposed to the death penalty.
I expect more leaks and attacks from the ALP “dark forces” from this result.
If mundo is anything to go by, i’m giving this blog a big miss for the next several weeks.
Insufferable negativity.
Wow that was a shocker from Hume. On the Miller issue and the $500K she hid behind Comcare, saying nobody in the govt has any knowledge of who is this unnamed second minister.
Way to miss the point, as was thrown back at her by the interviewers. Wilkinson said by not knowing who it is simply casts a question over all members of the government – and she’s right!
Surely the LNP needs to know who this person is even if it’s just to say they are addressing the person’s behaviour etc etc.
Lars,
You do believe in fairies, don’t you!
@Tricot – a lot of “if you’d just done what I told you?!”
Acting like toddlers five weeks out from an election is, excuse me in advance, fucking pathetic.
Elections are never won until they are. Labor had a bad first week. Morrison only had a decent one by comparison. There are five more to go and an electorate ready to give the Libs a kicking.
I’d have had the same strategy – not start the big push until ANZAC Day … if the first day hadn’t gone the way it did, we’d probably have a narrowing but less impact on the personal numbers. There’s a long way to go and the ground is still favourable.
something… agreed. Absolutely pathetic.
And if the best Morrison and co can get after the last week is a primary vote of 35, taking into account that 90% of our media shamelessly backs the Liberals, then things are not as dire as the likes of Mundo are suggesting
Mundo.when Ripley and the lttle girl are braver https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
Looking at 2PP at state level, with very rough calcs because im out of touch…
Using ALP + 0.8*GRN +0.5*OTH, (maybe thats optimistic for oth), gives;
NSW: 35+(0.8*10)+(0.5*21) = 52.5%, 4.3% swing to ALP = 2 Seat gain
VIC: 32+(0.8*12)+(0.5*21) = 52.1%, 0.8% swing to LNP = no change
QLD: 31+(0.8*13)+(0.5*22) = 51.9%, 10.3 swing to ALP = 11 seat gain
Looks like big herding in the those state breakdowns, does anyone seriously thing they will be that uniform ?
Gives 83 seats for ALP factoring in retirments and no change in other states with ABC calc.
So nothing has changed, its still all about QLD.
(EDIT: typo in qld, doesnt change seats)
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 7:12 pm
I expect more leaks and attacks from the ALP “dark forces” from this result.
_____________________
The leaks will be from the NSW Liberals, I am sure they have plenty more gossip
Approaching the 600 post of the Concern Troll Handicap over 3200 meters, and the placing are:
1. Mundo has careered off into a 15 length lead, calling it all over Red Rover. Gone to early?
2. LVT the canny professional, staying back in the pack, sniping away.
3. Holden Hillbillly, back in the pack, unlikely to improve.
4. TaylorMade, plodding along towards the rear – eyes elsewhere.
5. nath, appears to be contesting a different race altogether, has lost focus.
6. YourNameCouldBeHere, like the boy with the cart, you have the job in front of you…