The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
LVT: Oz reporting…
lol Mr Speaker.
More importantly, this poll by the lack of polling change, when everyone KNOWS that the Teals are gaining against the LNP, means that the ALP is increasing, while the LNP continues to crater against the Teals.
I’m sure it’s a thoroughly sourced story and not scuttlebutt of any kind to re-hash Shorten’s great crime of 2019 referring to himself as the next PM.
The only time in recent years that Labor has won the primary vote is in 2007 and then it was only by about 1%. In 2010 Labor won a minority while losing the primary by about 6%.
Does anyone remember the primary differential in 98, 01, 04 and 13?
Anne Ruston’s elevation as presumptive Health Minister brings some uncomfortable questions about Coalition health policy front and centre: do they think Medicare is unsustainable as it is? If so, do they think it should be scaled back, part patient funded, or that the Medicare levy needs increasing? I think a lot of voters will want very clear answers to this.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-shows-bad-faith-in-his-hit-job-against-icac-20220418-p5ae8w.html?btis
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has spent the weekend quibbling over whether his refusal to put his legislation for a national integrity commission to parliament amounts to a broken promise.
It clearly does, but he is now compounding that bad call with a series of misleading statements about the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption.
The problem for Morrison is that ICAC represents a popular and proven alternative to the toothless tiger he says is the only model he will accept.
Itep
Thank you. Things are going along as usual, some ups, some downs, some ups again. The reoses I transplanted from pots into the garden are going gangbusters so I get to sit out in the late afternoon and read a book for a while with the scent of roses in the air.
SA Labor’s win is a ‘bluddy beauty mate moment’ and none too soon. The new ALP gov’t got in just in time to stop a ridiculous $BIG spend on a new indoor basketball stadium. The fact that the Libs were proposing this while ambulances ramped for hours at our hospitals was major blunder, I reckon. Ramping is not an easy fix for anyone, but now is not the time for shiny new stadiums. We have lots of international standard sporting venues in Adelaide already and that just come across as a tin-ear proposal. I would love the know the ins and outs of that proposal and why the Libs stubbornly stuck to it in the face of clear voter hositility.
D
I hope all good with you. My son, Daughter-in-law and Grand-Dragonette in London have all recovered from Covid 19. luckily all the adults were vaxxed and everyone got a very mild case. I must say, Grand Dragonette is the apple of everyone’s eye!
Cheers
Puffy.
Latest polls have Labour up 43 to 34 in Britain.
Jason Clare quips “Honest Albo” and “Sneaky Scott”. I think that is pretty hard to argue with.
Here’s an interesting one for the GIS enthusiasts amongst us.
https://twitter.com/dantes76/status/1516024444837322752
Have you ever looked at Area 51 or the White House roof on google maps and noted how it’s blurred out or changed. Or in the Australian context, swan island in Melbourne.
Russian military installations are no longer being censored by google maps!
The ALP should keep hammering on ICAC and integrity. (And leave the LNP to disembowel each other on culture war horrors. And pretending Albo was booed offstage in Byron, even though he seems to be enjoying the campaign more than Morrison.)
Without integrity economic planning is reduced to escapades like Barnaby Joyce’s national coal mine and dam tour. It’s what Ray in Newcastle was most incensed about- Morrison’s false promises of an Integrity Commission and the lack of fairness it implies. It’s a huge issue, things like rorting and pork-barrelling of emergency grants and infrastructure funds
I could say @Freya – “Google it, mate”… but why not
2013: Lib 45.6% ALP 33.4% ALP -12.2% 2PP 53.5-46.5
2004: Lib 46.7% ALP 36.6% ALP -9.1% 2PP 52.7-47.3
2001: Lib 42.9% ALP 37.8% ALP -5.1% 2PP 51-49
1998: Lib 39.5% ALP 40.1% ALP+0.6% 2PP 49-51
Last one for the night.
Australian voters are unlikely to be told the full cost of scrapping the French submarine deal before the election, with Peter Dutton signalling the negotiations will not be wrapped up until after July.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/18/australians-unlikely-to-know-cost-of-scrapped-submarines-until-after-election-peter-dutton-says?CMP=share_btn_tw
Latest French Opinion Polling:
Macron 55.5
Le Pen 44.5
Charles,
Australia needs ships, we should pivot that contract cancellation into different contracts.
Well step away for an hour or so to have some Somtum and what do we find?
Uncky Rupert won’t be happy. A week of of pounding Albo and the ALP and nothing, nudda.
It will be interesting to watch News-Corpse the next few weeks. They will either double down and “really go after” Labor and Albo with the kitchen sink OR they might realise 65% of Australians think SfM is a dickhead and compulsive liar.
I predict a double down – at first. But once the stench of Morrisons’ corpse gets too strong, Uncky Rupert will try to put his tongue so far up Albos’ clacker it won’t be funny.
So come on troops, let’s get to work and “go a Tory hunting”. It’s open season.
Looking back to 2019 from this point of the campaign the Liberals were only twice below 38.
David Shor is an American data scientist who argues that the Democrats should campaign on policies that are popular, and spend less time talking about policies that are less popular. Doesn’t mean don’t have less popular policies, just don’t talk about them.
In the Australian context that would be Aged Care, ICAC, Medicare and TAFE.
Socrates at 10.57pm
Only half the journalists?
Lars, you do know quoting the Oz about what Albo is going to do/not do is fraught with danger. Like Allbo is sure going to confide in one of them.
Manufacturing might be heading back into the positive Labor policy category too.
”
clem attleesays:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 11:04 pm
Latest polls have Labour up 43 to 34 in Britain
”
I want to see that number on election night in Australia. 🙂
A party that’s six points behind and with less than five weeks out from an election, coupled with the fact that the trend has been this way for around a year, is in big trouble. It does seem that a majority has formed a very poor view of the Morrison Government – the lies, graft & corruption. Labor will win with a comfortable majority.
And we aren’t going to die knowing, now the gloves come off. The “Curious Snail” is beside itself.
“Labor says it will continue to peddle a false claim the Coalition would put pensioners on a welfare card that controls their spending, despite the Federal Government ruling out the move and as the peak body implored the Opposition to “stop scaring old people”.
Social Services Minister Anne Ruston said it was a “desperate and shameful scare campaign” as the Morrison government categorically dismissed the plan and as bureaucrats said it was not possible under current laws.
Labor has targeted social media and letterbox drops in marginal seats with claims pensioners would be put on the cashless debit card, which in some trial areas quarantines 80 per cent of JobSeeker payments for under 35s to prevent welfare being spent on alcohol, gambling and drugs.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/scaring-old-people-labors-tactics-slammed-by-ageing-council/news-story/89a88ab43215be6c4dad1fccb7475b55?amp
It seems pretty stupid to me that Morrison states that he apparently wants to implement his toothless ICAC bill if unamended, but then proceeds to attack the NSW ICAC as a ‘kangaroo court’ that hunts down supposedly innocent people. He would be better leaving out the attack if he wants to maintain even a fig leaf of perception that he might actually introduce one. They have a lot to hide, goes without saying really.
Charles at 11.08pm
I’m sure the Coalition went to great lengths – spinning out negotiations etc etc – to ensure the public wouldn’t know the extent of the subs cancellation fustercluck before the election.
Could turn out to be a blessing in disguise: IF Labor win, they might be able to positively re-engage with the French so we actually get (nuclear) subs and minimise our losses at the same time.
mj
Lovin’ the image of Morrison hiding behind a fig leaf!
Snappy Tom 11.20pm
Point. I should have said “at least half of Australia’s journalists”.
South
“ Charles,
Australia needs ships, we should pivot that contract cancellation into different contracts.”
The money has already been reallocated. Defence saved $4 billion in what would have been Adelaide sub building jobs in 2023-2025 by cancelling the French contract. Then they announced $3.5 billion for new Abrams tanks, completely out of left field.
The tanks weren’t in the previous White Paper. This was cowboy stuff.
Night all.
If Ann Ruston thought in 2014 that Medicare was unsustainable because we had maxed the credit card, either she was lying then that Medicare was unsustainable or, now, when the credit card has gone so far past it’s former maxed out status, she really believes that Medicare is even more unsustainable and is lying now about no cuts.
Either way Ruston is a liar and until she confirms which way she is a liar I regard Medicare under her ministry as being at grave risk. If this is me advancing a scare campaign I would be pleased for my fears to be explained away.
Scorates,
there’s always more money for the toys!
Quiet Australian,
If medicare needs more funding, I’d be happy to stop paying for shitty private health care and just pay for a proper NHS system.
Windhover, Anne Ruston when asked 3 times this morning by Sabra Lane on ABC AM refused to rule out cuts to Medicare. So your fears based on past statements and what she said today appear well-founded.
“Trent Zimmerman has called for Katherine Deves to stand down.”
Trent Zimmerman has requested it privately from the Prime Minister Office he hasn’t gone on record and declared that yet which would be far more disruptive.
Ruston’s would-be appointment is an absolute liability and the second (and much more colossal) bizarre own-goal of the LNP campaign. I thought the ALP’s focus on Medicare was a dud considering neither party had any notable plans to change it either way – and then they appoint a would-be health minister who’s previously proposed drastic cuts to it (and has always had an enthusiasm for cutting any services she’s allowed near). It’s probably the best thing that’s happened to the Labor campaign yet.
Rebecca, I think Morrison was asked about it later in the day and said Medicare wouldn’t be cut, for whatever that’s worth. Ruston just comes across as a lightweight that wouldn’t really care or stand up for her portfolio.
sprocket_ says Monday, April 18, 2022 at 10:40 pm
I imagine Morrison would be very happy with a victory, even if it comes at the cost of Frydenburg’s seat. It would mean one less potential challenger. Morrison’s dream would probably be to retain his job, but see Frydenburg and Dutton both go down while his pentacostal friends all get up.
If Morrison loses he won’t care much about Frydenburg either way.
Ukraine are really good at the PR war,
They have released a new stamp commemorating the sinking of the Russian flagship.
Lines around the block in Kyiv from the post office selling the stamp.
The performance of the teals will be interesting to watch, it looks a lot like the split in Labor that lead to the DLP and more so the split in the Libs that led to the Liberal Movement/Democrats except the candidates standing for election now never joined the pre-splintered party in the first place. I think it shows how disconnected the political parties, in particular the LNP, are from there supposed voter base.
@Socrates (April 18, 10:57pm)
“Those teal electorates really matter now. Labor has already committed publicly to stronger action on climate change and ICAC.”
Perhaps SfM will realise that Katherine Deves was not the best Captain’s pick after all…? She seems to be pissing off all of the voters in seats where the LNP are directly threatened by Teals.
clem attlee @11.04pm
UK Labour actually up 43-32, largest lead since ‘Partygate 1’ in January
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
Apr 16
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 43% (+3)
CON: 32% (-2)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ Mar
Ray why do you think UK Labour is currently ahead? I don’t closely follow UK politics but interested to know. Is it just a Boris hosts too many lockdown parties anger, or is there something more?
“Labor says it will continue to peddle a false claim the Coalition would put pensioners on a welfare card that controls their spending, despite the Federal Government ruling out the move and as the peak body implored the Opposition to “stop scaring old people”.
Oh you mean like the death tax scare campaign that was specifically aimed to “scare old people” Ms Rushton ?
mj
I think it’s cost of living more than anything – particularly Gas/Electric which recently jumped 60% with another 30% rumoured for October
Partygate is part of it
I’d like to think the Brexit penny is starting to drop for some on the quiet as well
The Tories are banking on the recent Rwanda policy for asylum seekers (only announced on Friday) to turn the numbers round. It may be the UK version of BOATS!
Edit – the 11-point lead with Delta is the highest currently, other pollsters have it around 5 to 6% although Delta is the most recent
Thanks Ray that makes sense. I think Brexit was never a smart idea, makes no sense to isolate from your neighbours while simultaneously encouraging the Scots to leave the UK. Don’t think your tories are quite as bad as ours though.
The reality of Australian politics is as the picture in Hawaii portrayed, PM Morrison is a fake.
The “great announcer” , the liar, the contaminator of the truth, the amazing Houdini on the campaign trail is exposed.
Morrison, is just, “a fat bullshit artist”.
With consideration given to all the media tarts painting lipstick on the pig and adding to the coagulation on “the bullshitters” eyelashes, this Newspoll (and Resolve) have indicated that all the blather and bells produced by the smug pricks from the Liberal Party and the MSM, is piss and wind.
This politician, Morrison, has taken the contempt for politicians, and particularly Liberal politicians, to a new nadir.
The smiling smug faces of his followers, both in the party and in the MSM over the the last week, have had their smugness jammed back down their collective throats, simply because the polls have hardly budged.
For many supporters of the liberal party, the “penny has dropped”.
The Teals are testament to that.
The absolute irony of Abbott supporting the liberal candidate in Warringah!
The irony of the liberal saint, John Howard, saying “what gaffe”!
Australia needs a FICAC with full power to remediate the broad extent of political corruption across Australia and to place the nation back in safe hands.
The only types worried about a FICAC are the crooks.
It’s probably too much to expect this Newspoll to be a “wake up call” for the MSM to place their collective feet “back on the ground”!
One thing is sticking out to me like a sore thumb every time I see a new poll. The LNP primary vote number is absolutely down the toilet and has been since January 2022. They haven’t recorded a single poll with a primary above 37 all year – and even the 37 primaries have been outliers. So many 36s, 35, 34s, and even 33s.
Think about it. We had an omicron wave, the exit from that wave, international borders opening, state borders reopening, a federal budget, some petrol money, a huge war in Ukraine, and Albo tipping a bucket of sh*t all over himself… and that LNP primary vote has gone smack bang nowhere.
KD in Warringah is still a masterstroke of a captain’s pick. She won’t win, but she may well pick up Labor seats in Hunter, Lilley, Blair, Gilmore, Macquarie for the Liberals. Trent Zimmerman is correct to want her to stand down because she does reduce his chances of re-election. But termporarily losing an upper-class seat to a Teal is not nearly as much a loss as winning a rust-belt seat permanently off Labor.
Current prediction: Coalition 75 Labor 67 KAP 1 CA 1 Green 1 Wilkie 1 Teals 5
mj said
“Thanks Ray that makes sense. I think Brexit was never a smart idea, makes no sense to isolate from your neighbours while simultaneously encouraging the Scots to leave the UK. Don’t think your tories are quite as bad as ours though”
____________________________________________________________
Our Tories believe in climate change (most anyway) other than that they are as bad IMO
Have you seen that Farage’s latest schtick is ‘A Referendum on Net Zero’?
BTW Polling on Scottish Independence is weakening a little on the ‘Yes’ side, as is polling for the SNP generally
Mea culpa, clem is correct the latest latest UK poll has Labour ahead 42-34
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
31m
Westminster Voting Intention (17 Apr):
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 34% (–)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)
Changes +/- 10 Apr
It has backfired on the media