The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
@citizen – thanks for reminding me why I’m basically avoiding any commercial TV during the campaign, lol.
“ AE I think Labor is addressing your concerns by trotting out Chalmers so much.”
Regardless of the identity and performance of the salesmen, what is the actual economic message for change?
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 9:53 pm
As per my prediction earlier in the week. Same 2PP with Albo’s negatives up.
Interesting that Resolve and Newspoll are exactly the same on primary votes for the ALP and LNP.
Seems like this result will break decisively one way or the other in the next 32 days. Albo still the front runner given he has led at least 53-47 for 12 months – but there’s obviously a lot of doubt out there.
Hard to believe it could be like this for so long and break for ScoMo at the last minute.
”
Lars
Yes I give you credit for predicting it right on Newspoll.
Hope your last paragraph above comes true for the sake of this country.
Yeah I don’t think Albanese is personally disliked, he’s probably the most likeable, in a nice bloke sense, candidate for PM since Hawke. The disapproval is more from seeming to not be across the details and there is also a sense of nervousness, which are probably linked. There isn’t really a detailed policy platform either but neither does the government and tbh it is so bad that it doesn’t have much competitive pressure.
LNP ads on 7 depicting Albanese as a weathervane with the line “Things will not be so easy under Albane$e” and a bazillion UAP ads.
Snappy Tom,
Yes, I do appear to have forgotten the most important one of all… Morrison ruling out a FICAC.
People have to be disappointed with that.
Even though he thinks he can skate away from it with his snarling reference to a ‘Kangaroo Court’, people aren’t stupid, they’ve seen how obviously corrupt politicians have fallen due to diligent work by our corruption commissions. And they want a federal one now.
Frankly that’s all I’m going to say when I’m handing out HTVs: Vote Labor if you want a federal anti corruption commission.’
“Regardless of the identity and performance of the salesmen, what is the actual economic message for change?”
Good governance and priorities in spending. Not rorting. That’s what I am hearing.
Is anyone starting to think that the MSM might not be as influential as it likes to think it is?
It seems that despite Albanese making a few minor mistakes, with his personal numbers falling, a majority still want to see the end of Morrison. Labor will be delighted with this poll & will invigorate it.
What a disaster for the LNP.
Their campaign is too negative. They need to make gains, but attacking Albo alone doesn’t seem it’s going to work for them.
Where is the policy?
Lynchpin on 1996 redux is what I’m thinking also
A suburban lawyer who had been in Parliament for yonks- bereft of any charisma – speech impediment; up against a Uber confident who could talk the talk.
But there was that pesky record which PJK had to carry, including toppling Hawkie and putting interest rates up to 17% to avoid the banana republic.
Albo = JWH (1996 vintage)
ScoMo = PJK (without the brutal honesty)
jt1983 @ #NaN Monday, April 18th, 2022 – 10:17 pm
Don’t be too worried. I watched the Ch9 News Break after Lego Masters and it was only a minute long and they concentrated on Labor’s attack on Scott Morrison’s character. So, not all bad out there in the wilderness.
Markjs from previous thread
Where do Australians get their news
https://www.statista.com/statistics/588441/australia-news-sources/
TV: 61%
Social Media: 52%
Online: 47%
Radio: 26
Print: 20%
MSM still packs a punch
Suggestion for Labor: less the presidential campaign approach, more a team approach – in other words, Chalmers, Clare, Pleberseck, Butler doing a lot more of the workload.
Hung Parliament is a big possibility, and that suits Labor, not the Coalition.
The other thing I’ve noticed is that Labor are picking some really good candidates this time.
Unlike the chosen few that Scott Morrison has hand-picked.
The best time to bet on the Coalition was anytime up to a few of days ago. I have them at $3.25 to form government and $5.50 for an LNP minority. I’d happily pay $200 to see the back of them.
Last couple of days not a bad time to back Labor.
”
Burgeysays:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 10:03 pm
Not a bad set of numbers at all, especially coming out of Easter when people will start to take more notice. Love to see it.
This one is done. Stick a fork in it. Much clenching of jaws and gnashing of teeth to come from most alp supporters given what happened in 2019, myself included. But it’s done.
”
Haven’t we learnt anything from one week of hand wringing and finger pointing?
No. It is not done till it is done. It is done when Anthony Green says it is done on election night. No sticking of forks till then especially when you are one of those who has been
clenching the jaws and gnashing the teeth.
I’d add that the doomsayers on this blog were more than a tad premature in predicting that Labor was out of contention following the first week. I urge a little more caution on their part in the coming weeks.
The Coalition is again on 35.
The independents likely to be elected will demand decent action on climate change and a real ICAC, by that I mean Wilkie, Haines, Stegel and possibly one or two more if they take seats off the Libs(Electra Spender, Zoe Daniel). Add Adam Bandt to that group.
Labor really only needs 73 seats, 74 to be a bit safer and they could do a deal with the group above.
After all the right wing attacks on Albo for a few mistakes in the first week there is NO change in the 2 pp vote and the Greens have gained 2 points.
Abbott was unpopular when he won and Albo is not even as unpopular as Abbott was.
Labor will win a comfortable victory with 77-80 seats.
Trent Zimmerman has called for Katherine Deves to stand down.
Matt Burnett in Flynn, top quality candidate.
Andrew Charlton in Parramatta, Gordon Reid in Robertson, Sally Sitou in Reid etc
Seems pretty obvious voters have stopped listening to the ‘mainstream media’..
..they made up their minds months ago & ain’t gunna change now..
Steady as she goes. So Labor doesn’t need to change tack then. But where to Morrison?
Are those rumours over Coalition drumming up a climate change scare campaign how they are going to reset? If so, they really are keen to give up those blue ribbon seats in order to take the outer suburbs. With all the dog whistling to boot, talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.
Everything about the LNP favours me except the fact that the only thing that exceeds their corruption is their incompetence. I’m literally in #A1 class of voters that the LNP would like to target. 30 years ago I would have been considered a cookie-cutter liberal. My older brother is the same as me, and while we don’t spend much time together, he has turned out the same way as me. I am the type of liberal that voted for John Hewson in 1993. I still stand in the same spot, but the LNP has chucked everything in the wagons and set up camp two train stations into crazy town. And I’ve lived in crazy places in my life; Some of the most authoritarian places in the world. But I’ve mostly laughed off the crazy shit that Oz has done over the past 25 years. And Oz has always done crazy shit. But the LNP that was born out of Howard? They’re like all of the piss and vinegar, but it’s against a wall.
But the worse part about them? What the LNP has become? They’re dumb. You want to make money for Australia? Give more incentive to the things that we’ve already started doing in every state. Renewables in this country are going gangbusters. That action will double. And double again. This throwing money after a dying fossil fuel industry is like investing in manufacturing spurs when you learn about the automobile. I don’t have any particular love for the ALP, but the LNP is completely, utterly, and irretrievably corrupt. They don’t even know how to switch off the tap of corruption. They’re broken.
The ALP government is likely going to extend the NSW liberal government energy policy, that was born out of the ALP, that became LNP, energy policy of South Australia. The new ALP state government of SA, without even a hiccup from the LNP before it, is going to continue soldiering on in their renewables revolution, and by the time he’s looking for re-election again, Malinauskas is going to be looking even better. With the ALP federal government supporting that transition, power bills are going to be consistently cheaper than they’ve ever seen them, and when energy prices all over the world start increasing, theirs aren’t going to be so exposed. And they’re going to continue going down, because there’s a real possibility that within 20 years Australia will have the cheapest energy in the world.
The LNP government has to go. They have no answers to any questions. They’re nothing more than spin and marketing. If the ALP can deliver just that energy transition and a federal ICAC, it won’t matter what they do after that. I’d love to see what their next set of priorities are, and if they accomplish those things, great, I’d probably vote for them again. But right now, do those things. Please.
I am starting out this campaign as a pessimist. I have seen the turkeys vote for Christmas too many times before. So I am not going to be freaking out about the polls, especially after the last federal election. If Labor loses I will be bitterly disappointed but not surprised. If Labor wins, some of my lost faith in the Australian voting public will be restored.
I do not expect concern for others to motivate voters, it is all about what’s-innit-for-me and calming irrational fear of brown Muslim asylum-seekers paddling up Lake Burley Griffin demanding the gov’t throw upright Aussie battlers out of their homes and ensconcing an extended family of 76 into those suburban castles.
The election results here in South Australia give me great cheer, but I know we cannot trust a majority of voters in the bigger states to replace reptilian food/fear responses with logic, intellect, and insight. Especially when the Murdoch media and assorted right-wing parasites infest our media market and go about turning normal people’s brain cells into pickled capers.
Did I mention greed, fear of loss ($) and cowardly aversion of risk?
So I am going to prepare myself for a loss and hope I am wrong!
Last couple of days not a bad time to back Labor.
That thought occurred to me earlier today. 🙂
Awkward!
Mr Mysterious at 10.23pm
I would call this poll a ‘provisional disaster’ for the LNP. (You see, I am determined to take nothing for granted and thereby temp the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.)
The lamestream media has gone to town in support of the LNP, for no result, so a ‘provisional disaster’ for those bastards, too (looking at you especially, their ABC).
Interestingly, the past 2 elections have seen a combined major party primary of about 75%. In 2016, LNP led that by 7.1 and squeaked home. In 2019, LNP led that by 7.9 and squeaked home by a smidge more.
The LNP have struggled in Newspoll for many months now – including this result of trailing on primary by 1%, which, if replicated on election night, would very bad for the LNP.
We may also see a continued reduction in support for major parties – from 75% combined primary to low 70s.
The Govt rubbishing as “unaffordable” a $2.5b injection of funds for much-needed pay rises for aged care workers, while breezily blowing $5.5b on cancelled subs, is going to be very hard for a lot of voters to take. A lot of aged care residents suffered and died during 2020-22, and a lot of their relatives had to watch on helplessly. I don’t know how the Govt can easily or credibly address this. I’m sure there is a fairly solid floor to Labor’s TPP support this election, and that it is somewhere higher than 52%.
I wonder what PK will have to say tomorrow morning? 🙂
To put the polling into a stark context nearly 15% of people that voted 1 Liberal last time are telling pollsters that they wont be voting 1 Liberal this time and many will preference the Liberals but they are facing big swings.
Morrison only has himself to blame with his bastardry over the NSW Liberal preselections.
Not only has he pissed off a huge number of Liberal supporters, but his Captains Pick of a divisive trans/homo phobic nutter as the candidate for Warringah has poured petrol on the fire by:
– losing every gay vote in the inner cities. These are an influential group. Karvalis and Fran Kelly must be questioning their Liberal adherence, and maybe even Alan Jones will vote Teal?
– losing numerous professional women who would be aghast at the non-inclusive themes of Deves
– losing the Jewish Board of Deputies, through Deves’ insensitive correlation of trans people with Nazis
– losing, possibly, the seats held by Trent Zimmerman, Tim Wilson and Josh Frydenburg through his support for the crackpot views of Deves
He may be a master campaigner, but as a strategist, Morrison is a flop.
Thank you, Quiet Australian, for reminding us about another VERY important issue to many, many voters. Aged Care.
That’s not the way I read it. Resolve had the Libs in front on 35, with Labor on 34. Newspoll has it the other way around with Labor on 36 and the Libs trailing on 35.
[‘The Coalition has made a stunning turnaround, according to the bookies, with their odds of retaining goverment drastically shortening.
LNP HQ will likely be taking the new odds as sign of a Miracle 2.0 for this year’s election.
The odds of the Coalition retaining government have dropped from $3.15 to $1.80 in just over a week, with two bookmakers making them narrow favourites.
In the run-up to the election, polls consistently showed Labor in the lead – but they are slipping away from him now too.’]
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/what-the-betting-odds-and-opinion-polls-say-about-next-pm/news-story/6ec2d5abc47041240799bd34cb51c2b3
This article was published at 9.48 pm. Perhaps they should’ve waited a bit?
Surely they knew that a Newspoll would be published today, rather than on
Easter Sunday.
Yeah sorry bystander – thanks for the correction.
Benson sounds a bit nervous. A few wheels in danger of falling off the Murdoch/Morrison juggernaut?
Nice to see you around Puff, hope you’ve been well, and best wishes.
The quiet Australians are ready to show Morrison the door.
Bystander at 10.41pm
So, only one of you and Lars can read?
Or Lars blinded by those ultra-thick-lensed blue-blood glasses?
The current headline on ‘The West Australian’ website is:
” Prime Minister Scott Morrison pledges $250 million to create 5000 new WA mining jobs”.
Why on earth do we need government money to create new WA mining jobs?
They do a pretty good job of creating themselves.
C@t, thank you. I think most people realise it is much more likely they will end up one day in a nursing home, than that they will strike it rich someday. As PJK once quoted the Big Fella: in any race, always back Self Interest, because you know it will be really trying. People supporting the aged care sector are looking after their own future interest; those supporting private wealth retention are just gambling.
It looks promising but let’s not make declarations of the result just yet, there are also some net sat figures for Albanese that are not where they would hope. There’s still 5 weeks to go, it’s not in the bag. Can be a little bit bipolar on this blog, the last Resolve poll wasn’t all that different and some people were despairing.
The LNP’s new Health Minister Anne Ruston is already a liability for them. Her past comments that “we can’t afford Medicare” are coming back to haunt her.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 10:39 pm
I wonder what PK will have to say tomorrow morning?
—-
Indulge yourself and sleep in.
Absolutely – it’s a positive, given EVERYTHING, the 2PP is stable and the Libs are not benefitting.
But as I said previously – an election is not decided in the first week, there’s a long way to go.
No worries Lars. I’ve generally found your observations and commentary on the election quite interesting.
OZ reporting Rudd will be Ambassador to the US under Albo. Good to see the ALP is already divvying up the spoils before the battle is over.
Evening all. Hurray Newspoll 53:47 after half Australia’s journalists turned into attack dogs on Albo. Not even a single point gained.
Psychologically this will be a comfort for Albo. Peoples concerns with Morrison, lies and corruption go beyond a few gotcha questions. 53% disapproving of Morrison is still a hard way to stay in power.
Those teal electorates really matter now. Labor has already committed publicly to stronger action on climate change and ICAC.
PS if we are already divying up the spoils, Dutton would make a fine ambassador to the Solomon Islands.