Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 35, Greens 11

What had previously been the Coalition’s best poll series opens its account for the year looking just as bad for the government as the others.

The new year polling drought has been brought to an end by Resolve Strategic, courtesy of the Age/Herald, which produces a particularly grim result for the government in view of its record as the Coalition’s strongest poll series. The Coalition primary vote is down fully five points since the last poll in mid-November to 34%, with Labor up three to 35%, the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. The pollster’s already high ratings for independents and “others” are up still further, by two points to 11% and one point to 6%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but applying 2019 preference flows produces a Labor lead of around 53-47.

The breakdowns provided for the three largest states suggest the damage has been spread pretty evenly on two-party preferred, but the Queensland figures are notable in that the major parties are down 12% between them while both the Greens and One Nation are up five. The results are worse for the Coalition among women than men, their primary vote dropping respectively by six points and three.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are nonetheless little changed, with approval and disapproval both up a point to 41% and 50%. However, Anthony Albanese records a solid improvement, with approval up three to 34% and disapproval down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 40-29 to 38-31.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607. The Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor display is yet to be updated at the time of writing, but more of the details are provided in the accompanying report. I have updated my BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but I always advise a bit of caution when the first poll is added after a break, as the result tends to weigh heavily on the end point of the trend measure.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,680 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 35, Greens 11”

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  3. @ Zoomster
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voices_groups_in_Australia
    I find that page helps in keeping track of where the campaigns roughly are. There are a few seats in QLD mentioned there, but majority are rightly NSW and VIC. Interesting in which seats have more interested with more than one group (eg Bradfield) and having seperate groups endorse different candidates (Hughes) or the same (North Sydney). Nevertheless, quite an interesting trend.

    @BK
    I just want to thank you for all your hard work with the copious and many Dawn Patrol’s. I’m a long time lurker but one thing in my daily routine is, I always check the Dawn Patrol! Keep up the solid work!

    @William
    Fantastic job as always and am enjoying your federal guide! The map highlighting the electorates with the margins is probably the easiest one around and I frequently use it as my first go to for a map.

    And to others, despite the many argy bargys on here, I do appreciate the discussions as some can be quite informative. Hope all are having a wonderful star to the New Year!

    PS: And for those who haven’t already, I recommend bookmarking Kevin Bonham’s party tracker:
    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/08/party-registration-crackdown-tracker.html

    Such a good resource in keeping up with all the new parties and seeing if they meet the 1500 member requirements, who’s drop out, who’s merging, etc.

  4. “And if some Labor pollies get caught up in it too, as I’m sure will almost certainly happen, well… Good riddance.”

    ***

    That’s the perfect way to look at it. Cleaning out any corruption that exists can only be a good thing for Labor in the long term, or any other party for that matter.

  5. Lizziesays:
    Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 9:30 am
    GHunt was right that the gov was not redirecting all the RATs. Seems that Big Business is also the culprit.

    Greg hunt was on ABC yesterday morning and stated that the Government had not redirected any RATs and the story was a complete and utter lie, further the they had written to all journalists involved in this lie and they either withdrawn or stopped repeating this lie. He dared anyone to continue with the lie. The interviewer just shut up, new it was over.

    But in the end the story has done the damage it set out to do.

  6. Two good letters in the SMH outlining the swindle being pulled by SfM in using taxpayer money to advertise for his non-existent climate policy by claiming credit for the work of others:

    Great solar swindle

    The Morrison government spending millions on an advertising campaign promoting rooftop solar is galling enough from a government that fundamentally hates renewables, but the graphic in its Herald print ads shows just how little it cares about accurate messaging. You don’t build rooftop solar with two different types of PV panel, as shown in the ad; you never build a system with panels extending above the roof-line , nor do you install panels on top of each other. Further, in most parts of Sydney, it’s illegal to put panels on the street-facing roof of a heritage house like the one in the ad.

    Gavin Gilchrist, Inner West Community

    Energy, Annandale

    The federal government has no shame. In its ads, it claims that solar panels on homes are part of its fight against climate change. It did nothing to achieve this; homeowners paid to install them.

    On top of this, the government allowed the power regulator to charge homeowners if they transferred solar power to the network. So much for the government’s advertisement.

    Barry O’Connell , Old Toongabbie

  7. Has PB’s LNP stooge faction surfaced this morning to give us the ‘sunlight uplands’ and/or ‘what about’ Labor talking points yet?

    No? I wonder why …

  8. The point we cannot continue to miss, is this Government, outside of being incompetent and basically corrupt… they are LAZY.

    So – the question of what they will run on? Chances are it will be at once hap-hazard and boring (taxes/aspiration/budget repair) and hoping Labor gifts them a cut-through scare campaign.

  9. I can live with 53/47 to be honest I thought it could be worse. We are well behind, I feel this will end up being how well Albanese does and at the moment he is making few mistakes.

    I feel he only needs to be seen as a safe pair of hands keep the loons on a leash and he has this one.

  11. Well, I see that the steam phallus has popped up for a little bleat … so there is that I guess.

    Riddle me this, Steely: exactly how is small business going to take advantage of these mythical sunlight uplands given that many of them are already going out of business due to the ‘freedumbs’ clusterfuck over summer and those that don’t may well lack customers and clients due to the absolute collapse of consumer confidence for the same reason?

    Election, March or May. Not looking pretty for your team. Tick tock, old sport. Tick tock.

  15. Of course there is a vindictiveness in the desire. The cautious centrist and government focused almost solely on the big end of, not just the town, the globe has systemically failed people. They been angry for decades, they’ll move from the left to the right in the dim hope that someone will govern for them.

    The one thing that resonates across the disgruntled spectrum is ‘lock him / her up’. In the US the left want to lock up Trump and the right want to lockup Hilary. Even though I think, and I think it is quite objective, that Trump has actually committed a range of crimes it seems more likely they’ll lock up Hilary under a right wing government than the ‘justice’ system will actually lock up Trump.

    The corruption is just so apparent and so open, particularly in NSW, that a genuine independent ICAC, and there will never ever be such a thing it will be severely biased to the elite class, would have real trouble picking which cases to investigate first. In NSW they’d have to open a former mps wing in a jail.

  16. Steelydan says:
    Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 10:57 am
    I can live with 53/47 to be honest I thought it could be worse. We are well behind, I feel this will end up being how well Albanese does and at the moment he is making few mistakes.

    I feel he only needs to be seen as a safe pair of hands keep the loons on a leash and he has this one.

    If Resolve have not edited their algorithms then the result will be a lot worse.

    Speaking of ‘safe hands’, demonstrably, Morrison’s and the Liberals’ are as unsafe as any we’ve seen. They just cannot do the job. Reactionary instincts and ideological games will only get you so far. In the end they cannot conceal the complete incompetence of this Government.

  17. You’d have to think ALP will gain enough seats in Qld, WA plus another 2-4 across Tas/SA/Vic to get a majority without losing any?

    whether it goes further into comfortable majority, stops there, or goes backwards from there pretty much depends on what transpires in NSW. Real vanguard bastion for ScoMo is NSW… would love to know swing indications there specifically. Surely after this last month, cannot be looking good for the Coalition at present?

  18. It’s hard to know what to make of Resolve, given their lack of a track record. But the headline shifts in PV (big drop in LNP PV, about half going to Labor and half elsewhere) is what you’d expect, given events in recent weeks. Polling was done during the Djokovic saga, so any plus for Morrison from that is at least partially already factored in. On the other hand, some of the state level PVs from Resolve look pretty implausible.

    For months leading into Xmas/New Year, the polling average was 53/47 to the ALP, and surely now it’s got even worse than that for the government. And with the clock starting to run down, and with a lot more Covid related problems still in the pipeline, even if daily infections have peaked, it’s getting harder to see how how Morrison and his media cronies can pull off a comeback from here. But I won’t believe it’s over until Antony Green calls it on the evening of May 21st!

  19. This government has had the death rattle for sometime. The stuff up of vaccination rollout was the final straw. They aren’t coming back from here.
    The feeing I get is that folks are just waiting to vote them out. I think Longman will be one seat in QLD going over to Labor. Actually it could end up being a bit of a landslide to Labor.

  20. jt1983says:
    Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 10:54 am
    The point we cannot continue to miss, is this Government, outside of being incompetent and basically corrupt… they are LAZY.

    So – the question of what they will run on? Chances are it will be at once hap-hazard and boring (taxes/aspiration/budget repair) and hoping Labor gifts them a cut-through scare campaign.

    It is thinking like this that will lose you the election. You may hate Morrison but he is not lazy he hand he is not boring. The last three wins have not been hap-hazard they have been right on point and beaten Labor’s “hap-hazard” campaigns, remember that learn from that and you might just win.

  21. WeWantPaul

    The corruption is just so apparent and so open, particularly in NSW, that a genuine independent ICAC, and there will never ever be such a thing it will be severely biased to the elite class, would have real trouble picking which cases to investigate first. In NSW they’d have to open a former mps wing in a jail.
    ————-

    At the Budget Review, the Treasurer Schadenberg, openly smirked as he announced the $16 billion of public funds set aside for the (private) purposes of the LNP Government’s re-election.

    They are lacking in even an awareness of what is moral and smugly confident of their unassailability.

  23. Once upon a time the standard excuse for calling an early election (not that March is that early) was to end the uncertainty.

    Just reading at The Guardian the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has produced its weakest January result since 1992!

    There’s a task for the master marketer. Convince people there is nothing but blue skies and green grass ahead.

    Go on Scotty, do it.

  24. Steely

    Morrison IS lazy as all get out. But I agree, he is not boring in the sense of the curse ‘may you live in interesting times’.

  25. All Labor has to do to win is run a low risk campaign focusing on the government’s Covid incompetence. Don’t get fancy and don’t try any class warfare strategy. The people will do the rest as it should be in our system.

  26. A man who was forced to hand over his phone and passcode to Australian Border Force after returning to Sydney from holiday has labelled the tactic “an absolute gross violation of privacy”, as tech advocates call for transparency and stronger privacy protections for people’s devices as they enter the country.

    Software developer James and his partner returned from a 10-day holiday in Fiji earlier this month and were stopped by border force officials at Sydney airport. They were taken aside, and after emptying their suitcases, an official asked them to write their phone passcodes on a piece of paper, before taking their phones into another room.

    It was half an hour before their phones were returned, and they were allowed to leave. James initially posted about his ordeal on Reddit.

    “We weren’t informed why they wanted to look at the phones. We were told nothing,” he told Guardian Australia.

    “Who knows what they’re taking out of it? With your phone and your passcode they have everything, access to your entire email history, saved passwords, banking, Medicare, myGov. There’s just so much scope.”

    James said he has no idea what officials looked at, whether a copy of any of the data was made, where it would be stored and who would have access to it.

    “It’s an absolute gross violation of privacy.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/18/returning-travellers-made-to-hand-over-phones-and-passcodes-to-australian-border-force

  28. Michael Pascoe
    @MichaelPascoe01
    ·
    1h
    Most inane political cliche (Perrottet now): “we’ll come out stronger on the other side”
    How so? Burnt out health workers, weaker economy, more cynicism about governments’ capability, long COVID…

  29. davidwh at 11:07 am

    This government has had the death rattle for sometime. The stuff up of vaccination rollout was the final straw. They aren’t coming back from here

    Is the RAT lack causing much ‘Grrrrrrr’ among the public ? I imagine it would be but given our lack of plague cases in WA it is not really an issue here …………………………….yet .

  30. Premier Dominic Perrottet says people have to get on with life as NSW records its deadliest day of the pandemic, with 36 deaths reported and 29,830 cases.

    _______________________________-

    Always look on the bright side of death, da da, dadadadadada

  31. No doubt already discussed, and I’ll skim back, but it may be worth noting that Resolve is not a member of the Australian Polling Council. It may be sign that the APC isn’t particularly effective, but if you want to promote yourself as a polling outfit, why wouldn’t you add even a little bling? Cheeky thought: Were they perhaps rejected?
    https://www.australianpollingcouncil.com/

    Regarding the numbers, I suspect the key metric is the 3% ALP’s primary vote increase, not the LNP’s 2% decrease, which seems to have gone to independents. I expect the 2% independent/other primary vote will flow back to the LNP. Though it might help some independents retain or gain a seat here or there. (From a skim/read of the link I didn’t see how preferences were allocated.)

  32. I missed Joshie this morning. Is he still denying the lack of consumer confidence?

    Guardian

    It seems confidence is a seasonal thing, which might explain that chatter about Scott Morrison planning to call an election after January when we were all supposed to be relaxed, smiling and a little suntanned – rather than anxious, grimacing and sodden from the La Nina’d summer.

    Anyway, consumer confidence is typically positive in January, so ANZ-RM tell us. Instead, the 97.9 point reading is the weakest January result since 1992 (when jobless rates were soaring and the RBA cash rate was 7.5%).

    Confidence is below the 100-point mark for all states (though not our terrific territories) which suggests the malaise is widespread – and perhaps why Morrison is going to call the election as late as he can.

    May 21 is that final date, so let’s see how close he gets to that as a sign of his own confidence.

  33. lizzie

    “James said the incident made him rethink what he would do next time he travels out of Australia.

    “I think what I’ll just do next time is as we fly into Sydney, I’ll just press the factory reset button on the phone and when they pull me up again, I’ll be handing them a fresh clean factory reset.”

    ———

    I assume if you have saved your phone’s contents to the cloud you can safely clear it of all information.

    Is that correct?

  34. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 10:58 am
    Well, I see that the steam phallus has popped up for a little bleat … so there is that I guess.

    Riddle me this, Steely: exactly how is small business going to take advantage of these mythical sunlight uplands given that many of them are already going out of business due to the ‘freedumbs’ clusterfuck over summer and those that don’t may well lack customers and clients due to the absolute collapse of consumer confidence for the same reason?

    Election, March or May. Not looking pretty for your team. Tick tock, old sport. Tick tock.

    Like I said it is not looking good and to be honest we do not deserve to win at the moment but Labor has a knack of losing. As for small business’s I believe they hated the lockdowns far more than you you feel will they vote Labor… I doubt it. But that is not the votes you need their is more than enough elsewhere, the 10% of teachers that vote liberal, the last 25% of nurses, the 1os of thousands in the tourist industry, you need the votes of the people that considered Labor last time. It is there it’s yours to lose that is not just my thoughts it is every political pundit and commentator I know.

  35. Poroti I don’t know if RAT will switch votes however it does lock in peoples view of the government. This reinforces the swing to Labor.
    Personally I don’t think a WA type result at federal level would be good for the country.
    A comfortable defeat rather than a landslide would be my preference.

  36. Dog’s Brunch,

    Good spot on the letters to the ed. FWIW Gave Gilchrist is a great guy and knows what he’s on about. I helped him on a few solar sizing assessments for small businesses back when I was in Sydney.

  37. Bludging @ #100 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 10:45 am

    The Djokovic story will not change votes. Not a one.

    The Liberals cannot seriously run on their record (though they will try). They cannot run a plausible fear campaign against Labor (though they will try). What will they run with? They have very little time. Voters will not be listening to them right now. The Liberals are usually very adroit at courting the persuadable to support them. Their wedges have all failed so far. What will they campaign with?

    Nationalism, and all its fakery.

  39. TPOFsays:
    Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 11:14 am
    Steely

    Morrison IS lazy as all get out. But I agree, he is not boring in the sense of the curse ‘may you live in interesting times’.

    Then every journalist that knows him is telling porkies. Last election the journos attached to Morrison could not keep up he was up at 5am and did not stop till 11pm everyday. Journos went on and on about his work ethic and stamina during the last campaign they also commented on his single minded and absolute belief he could win. This election will be no different.

  40. Were there no other colours available?

    Simon Love @SimoLove

    BREAKING: Victorian Health Authorities will call a “CODE BROWN” in all metropolitan and 6 large regional hospitals (Barwon, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton/GV, Albury Wondonga, Latrobe).

  41. davidwh says:
    Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 11:25 am
    Poroti I don’t know if RAT will switch votes however it does lock in peoples view of the government. This reinforces the swing to Labor.
    Personally I don’t think a WA type result at federal level would be good for the country.
    A comfortable defeat rather than a landslide would be my preference.

    ____________________________________

    I agree about reinforcement. I think that there is such a clear pattern of behaviour with Morrison and his government that attitudes are pretty much set. It will only take an election campaign for people to think actively about where they will vote and I expect that will bake in the result.

    A WA type result is never good for democracy. Although I am not surprised, I admire McGowan’s restraint in not going to town on his powers. Newman’s arrogance was very bad for Queensland and, it turns out, bad for himself and his party.

  42. Nationalism, and all its fakery.
    _____________________

    Patriotism is the last recourse of the scoundrel. And what a scoundrel we have!

  43. Steely – I’ve worked in and around Governments since Rudd. This is far and away, the least ambitious and laziest government I’ve ever seen.

    Morrison isn’t necessarily personally lazy, but he’s intensely reactive and doesn’t do anything until he absolutely and positively is forced to.

    I don’t think because the Government IS lazy, they’re going to just roll over and not fight. Obviously not. It just means they’re going to be at once more reactionary and also predictable in using old-school Tory talking points.

  44. TOPF

    Morrison IS lazy as all get out.

    Steelydan

    Last election the journos attached to Morrison could not keep up he was up at 5am and did not stop till 11pm everyday.
    ———-

    These statements are not incompatible.

    About his duty to the Australian people he IS as lazy as all get out.

    When it comes to self-interest and his own survival he is as motivated as any liberal carpetbagger.

  45. davidwh

    Personally I don’t think a WA type result at federal level would be good for the country.

    I think we should ‘do the experiment’ to see what actually happens. 🙂 So far in The Cave it has worked out OK.

  47. briefly: “What will they campaign with?”

    The Liberal campaign will be based on three main propositions:

    1) Labor wants to take away your wealth. They were honest about that in 2019, but this time they are being quiet about it, but they haven’t changed their minds.
    2) Based on Keneally’s public statements, it is clear that Labor is toying with relaxing border controls and thereby allowing the people smugglers and the boats to come back.
    3) The Libs have brought back normal life, but Labor has an uncontrollable urge to lock everything down and shut the borders and continue to prevent Australians from reuniting with their friends and family who are overseas.
    4) The Libs ran up the national debt because of an emergency caused by COVID and will repay the debt by governing sensibly and fairly. If Labor is elected, they will spend like drunken sailors as they usually do and Australia’s economy will go down the gurgler.

    From what I’ve been hearing, the ads have been scripted and the campaign is ready to roll whenever the election is called.

    Have no doubt, these will be tough messages for Labor to counterract. But I sense that a growing number of people are heartily sick of Morrison and this will certainly help the cause.

    Because of his growing unpopularity, I expect that the Libs will push him more into the background than last time and go hard with their fear campaign against Labor.

  48. I think the RAT problems have had a major impact. The vaccine roll out was reasonably perceived as complicated – I’m not saying it wasn’t completely ballsed up, it was – but there were intangibles that muddied the responsibilities waters in peoples’ minds, which the government played on: difficulty with supply, distribution, engaging medical personel, blah blah, all gosh, that sounds tricky to the average punter.

    With RATs on the other hand, people new exactly what they do, and they were side effect free, knew when they needed them (now) and that all the had to do was go to a shop and buy one. But they weren’t there. There’s an immediacy and simplicity in this failure. The government put the people in the situation where they needed them, and getting them should have been as easy as buying an apple.

    Big error I think, and one so easily preventible. I remember Hazzard telling people to just go on-line, and shop around, and try Wooliies. Major fail, and just before Christmas, when just about everyone I know got – Covid.

  49. Rushing about like the Energizer Bunny to have as many “thumbs up” photos in a day as possible may impress journos who try to keep up with him, but we’ve seen all that before.

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