Novak and Nicholls

A poll supports suspicions that the federal government was following the public’s lead in deporting Novak Djokovic. Plus preselection news, though not very much of it.

Another week of the sillier-than-usual season goes by without a great deal to report, with the only new poll result I’m aware being a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finding 81% out of 1224 WA respondents surveyed around a week ago believed Novak Djokovic should be deported. Lest anyone doubt the international reach of this particular story, a British poll by YouGov found 62% believed Djokovic should not be allowed to play in the open, with only 18% believing he should. (UPDATE: And now a national poll by Resolve Strategic for the Age/Herald finds 71% believe he “should not be allowed to stay and play”.)

The biggest preselection news of the week related to Gladys Berejiklian’s former seat of Willoughby, which I’m holding off on doing a post about until a date is set for state’s looming quartet of by-elections. At federal level, both the Nationals and the Liberals now have candidates for the rural Victorian seat of Nicholls, to be vacated with the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum. These are, respectively, Sam Birrell, an agronomist and former chief executive of the Committee for Greater Shepparton, and Stephen Brooks, a Cobram high school teacher and farmer. Also in the field as an independent is Greater Shepparton deputy mayor Rob Priestly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,093 comments on “Novak and Nicholls”

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  1. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-we-ve-got-anti-vaxxer-mps-but-what-can-you-do-20220117-p59oxt.html

    Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce says there is nothing the federal government can do to silence anti-vaxxers in its ranks after deporting No. 1 Novak Djokovic for fear he would encourage people to shun the COVID-19 vaccine.

    Senior ministers on Monday faced accusations of hypocrisy for their hard line against Mr Djokovic while government MPs such as George Christensen and Senator Alex Antic continue to spread anti-vaccination messages.

    ——————-

    I’m pretty sure there is PLENTY of things you can do with MPs who are anti-vax, anti-mandate MPs.

  2. poroti

    The Baltic States must be getting nervous. They were invaded by the Soviets in 1939 (in accordance with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) and again in 1944 when the Soviets replaced the Chermans.

    One of Putin’s demands is that all ex-Warsaw Pact members be “expelled” from NATO.

    I assume he wants to hoover them up again, in some form.

  3. AndrewMcK, last time, promise.

    What you explained also provides a simple way to articulate any multi-vaccination mandate. The mandate would be that you need to have been vaccinated no longer ago than, say, 6 months. It really doesn’t matter if this is your 3rd or your 10th. The important bit is whether it is still current. And presumably new covid strains will be met with new vaccines, so there’s no need to include that in the mandate. Just stay current.

  4. “One of Putin’s demands is that all ex-Warsaw Pact members be “expelled” from NATO.”

    What exactly is he planning should those demands not be met? I’m sure that in the the short term, at least, the US combined with the EU could do massive damage to the Russian economy.

  5. Q: the US combined with the EU could do massive damage to the Russian economy.

    It always amuses me that the Russian economy is about the same siz as Australias. So scary!

  6. Rakali at 10:06 pm
    Why would he bother with them ? A lot of pain for no real gain. They already have Kaliningrad and so a Baltic port that doesn’t ice up is already in the bag.

  7. Excuse me while I go find the world’s tiniest violin:

    Prince Andrew was reportedly in tears when he was stripped of his military titles while sources have claimed his ‘dire situation’ has finally dawned on him.

    The Duke of York was said to be ‘utterly devastated’ by the Queen’s decision but has accepted it was the ‘right thing to do.’

    On Thursday, Andrew was stripped of his remaining patronages and honorary military roles after he lost his bid to have the sex lawsuit against him thrown out.

    https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/16/prince-andrew-left-in-tears-when-queen-stripped-him-of-titles-15925821/

  8. “Anecdotal” relates to “anecdote”, which is defined as “a short amusing or interesting story about a real incident or person.”

    While the story of the man’s wife’s death is not amusing, it is just a story, an anecdote. No formal medical diagnoses are cited. The husband does not claim any special medical or mental health expertise. It’s the husband’s opinion, told from his point of view.

    It is also just ONE story, among many.

    That’s why we shouldn’t base national policy on anecdotes. People take their own lives for all kinds of reasons, not all of them obvious. One person’s response to an illness, even a debilitating one, shouldn’t govern what we all do regarding COVID.

    I’m not saying the husband is lying, or even exaggerating. But it’s just ONE story.

  9. Roy Orbison @ #1053 Monday, January 17th, 2022 – 10:18 pm

    “One of Putin’s demands is that all ex-Warsaw Pact members be “expelled” from NATO.”

    What exactly is he planning should those demands not be met? I’m sure that in the the short term, at least, the US combined with the EU could do massive damage to the Russian economy.

    He’s trying to get the band back together.

    It’s been said that that has been Putin’s prime motivation, to reconstitute the USSR.

  10. Asha

    Just a spoilt younger son given titles for his ego. Reminds me of this nursery rhyme:

    Oh the Noble Duke of York
    He had ten thousand men
    He marched them up to the top of the hill
    And marched them down again.
    And when he was up he was up
    And when he was down he was down
    And when he was only halfway up
    He was neither up nor down.

  11. WeWantPaul @ #1030 Monday, January 17th, 2022 – 9:22 pm

    “C@t, I believe BB was not casting doubt on the story of the suicide. He was saying that the cause of death being long Covid was anecdotal.

    It is most likely the suicide was multi factorial, of which long Covid symptoms may or may not have been contributory.”

    That constructed interpretation is 100% completely inconsistent with the published story and is an odd combination of mansplaining, know it all, and just making up dumb shit for no good reason.

    Agree. People dismiss the effect Covid has on the brain too lightly. This hardly seems ‘anecdotal’:

    My wife, Heidi, took her own life after a 13-month battle with long Covid that started as a mostly asymptomatic coronavirus infection. Long Covid took her from one of the healthiest, most vibrant people I’ve ever known to a person so debilitated that she could not bear another day on this planet.

    I came home one day last May to find that she’d decided to end her pain. As our 13-year-old son waited outside for the paramedics, I tried desperately to revive her. I did a good enough job that by the time we got her to the hospital they could restart her heart, but she was brain dead on arrival. The emergency room doctor assumed that she died from depression. When I told him, “She wasn’t depressed, it was long Covid,” he looked at me with bewilderment and asked, “What’s long Covid?”

    Late last night I got a desperate Twitter message from a man whose wife could be the next Heidi. She has long Covid and was threatening to end her life. She had already told their eight-year-old daughter her plan. I called him immediately. Heidi and his wife both suffered from unexplained neurological tremors and internal chest cavity vibrations so bad they lost the ability to sleep.

    Like prisoners of war kept awake for days as a method of torture, their minds lost the ability to make sound cognitive decisions. I knew this man’s terror. Sadly, his call was not an anomaly. I have answered requests like his every single day since my wife’s obituary went viral and I began to share our story with the media.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/12/long-covid-wife-suicide-give-others-hope

  12. ““Anecdotal” relates to “anecdote”, which is defined as “a short amusing or interesting story about a real incident or person.””

    Well words are your thing? You should get them right. The story was not a ‘short amusing or interesting story about a real incident.’

    It was a report about many incidents including drs appointments, detailed background of the deceased and cross-referenced to at least one other potential case. It may be wrong, the cause may have beem wrongly identified, the otherwise unexplained symptoms may have an explanation none of us even are aware exists. But still your extraordinary arrogant and unfounded take is absurd and pathetic in equal measure.

    Then again over many years you’ve never been good at self awareness when you are way way offside.

  13. Lizzie
    I thought it was:
    My name is Andrew Windsor.
    I walk around the town.
    Sometimes with my trousers up.
    And sometimes with them down.
    And when they were up, they were up.
    And when they were down, they were down.
    And when they were only halfway up.
    I was arrested.

  14. I don’t think C@tmomma or WWP have the same understanding of the meaning of the word “anecdotal” as I do.

    To my mind, an anecdote may well be true, detailed, and may well describe a serious situation, but it is still just a one-off personal story.

    There’s no need for WWP’s routine slagging off – “extraordinary arrogant and unfounded take”, “absurd and pathetic in equal measure” – at what was a simple proposition: that one tragedy, no matter how well documented, should not be extrapolated to a national emergency. All you accomplish by exaggerating the situation is lose your audience.

    As far as I can see suicide rates are actually either on par, or down, not up, compared to recent years. That is neither an “absurd” nor a “pathetic” statement.

    https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/suspected-deaths-by-suicide/data-from-suicide-registers

    While the individual case described is sad, there does not appear to be an epidemic of suicide, at least due to Long Covid. Happy to be shown otherwise.

  15. Finally some polling! And it seems as though the govt’s stuffing up the Covid response has hit them. Hard.

    Soaring virus infections have fuelled a backlash against Prime Minister Scott Morrison over his handling of the pandemic, slashing the Coalition’s primary vote from 39 to 34 per cent and vaulting Labor into a strong position ahead of this year’s federal election.

    The dramatic shift has cut the government’s standing on every key measure of its performance, with voters losing confidence in Mr Morrison and the Coalition on the economy, jobs, health and the response to the coronavirus.

    Labor has increased its primary vote from 32 to 35 per cent since November, generating a powerful boost for Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese ahead of the election due by May, while the Greens have held their support at 11 per cent.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-primary-vote-drops-below-labor-s-for-the-first-time-resolve-survey-20220117-p59orf.html

  16. Djokovic’s COVID vaccine status looks set to cause him more headaches in the future.

    A spokesperson for France’s Ministry of Sport has warned there will be no exemption for unvaccinated players at the upcoming French Open in May.

    The country recently introduced COVID-passes that require individuals to have received two doses to enter many venues, including sports venues like the grounds at Roland Garros.

    “The rule is simple. The vaccine pass will be imposed, as soon as the law is promulgated, in establishments that were already subject to the health pass,” the ministry said in a statement.

    “This will apply to everyone who is a spectator or a professional sportsperson and this until further notice”

    When all is said and done, it is the Serb’s desire to march to the beat of his own drum that has cost him yet another shot at the history he so craves.

    ABC NEWS ONLINE

  17. Voters used to say Morrison and the Coalition were listening to them and focused on the right issues. He led on this measure by 13 percentage points last May when case numbers were down and budget spending was up.

    Now Anthony Albanese and Labor hold the upper hand on the same question. Their lead is only a single percentage point but is part of a shift against the government on all fronts.

    Whatever the question, the government has lost ground. Who is best to lead the country? Morrison and the Coalition are ahead by three percentage points but they used to be ahead by nine. At their peak in May they led by 18 points.

    Who is honest and trustworthy? Morrison led on this question from April to October but slipped badly in November and has now lost his lead. Albanese is ahead with a small margin, at just a single percentage point, but the trend has gone his way.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-race-tightens-after-morrison-takes-a-summer-battering-20220117-p59orh.html

    Next stop: voters stop listening to the government.

  18. Oh, me too, but I was surprised that resolve was the one to come out with those numbers. They are usually the outliers in favour of the Coalition.

  19. Once again a Coalition anti vaxxer is not being pulled into line by SFM or Beetroot Head . This time on Serbian television —

    Senator Antic appeared on Serbian television to defend Mr Djokovic and condemn his own government’s “regrettable” decision to deport him.

    “I understand that this has been done on the grounds of the public interest. I don’t know what that means,” he said. “But it is curious in the sense that I don’t believe Mr Djokovic poses any threat to the Australian people [or] to the other players in the tournament.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-we-ve-got-anti-vaxxer-mps-but-what-can-you-do-20220117-p59oxt.html

  20. Novax will find it hard to play in the French Open, but he’ll be able to play at Wimbledon unless the UK govt changes the rules for visitors – he’ll just have to be having Covid tests all the time.

    The US Open will be problematic however, as the US has very similar rules for international arrivals as Australia does. Seems an odd thing to do, throwing away your career in your dogged determination to remain unvaccinated.

    Visitors to the United States must be fully vaccinated if not a U.S. citizen, U.S. national, lawful permanent resident or traveling to the United States on an immigrant visa.

    There are exceptions to this rule, but most of them would not seem to apply to Djokovic. He could claim to have a documented medical contraindication to receiving a coronavirus vaccine or could seek a humanitarian or emergency exception from the U.S. government.

    People from countries that have limited coronavirus vaccine availability also may seek an exception to the vaccination requirement, but Djokovic’s home nation of Serbia is not on the list of such countries (nearly all of them are in Africa).

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/16/novak-djokovic-future-grand-slam-events/

  21. Elmer Fudd,
    That guy is a serious RWNJ. If Scott Morrison doesn’t realise that MPs like Antic and Rennick, because they’re staying & Christensen is not, are seriously scaring the horses, then he’s lost his political antenna and he won’t find them before the election if he doesn’t pull them up and publicly haul them back into line.

    COVID-19 isn’t your normal Right Wing Culture War tool, and this isn’t the USA.

  22. C@t:

    Whether he wants it or not, Novax has become the cult hero of the anti-vax movement. That’s not exactly something I’d bet his sponsors would be comfortable with.

  23. I wouldn’t be thanking God, I’d be angry with him for sending a tsunami that destroyed everything and made my children and I run for our lives!

  24. He’s trying to get the band back together.

    It’s been said that that has been Putin’s prime motivation, to reconstitute the USSR.

    He’s like an abusive ex-partner. Stalking, manipulating, threatening.

    Mate, they’re just not into you.

  25. Perhaps the voting public are rejecting the “more equal than others” tenet strictly adhered to by the LNP .
    Honest and trustworthy the LNP ain’t!
    Clearly a solid thirty something percent of voters are comfortable with the “Napoleon” commandment.
    The measurement of one’s worth in “house price” is perhaps a telltale!
    For those keen to see the LNP consigned to the bench for a while beware the ” bird in the hand” LNP promises to be made with “gay” abandon in the next six months.
    Job Keeper benefits for all!!!

  26. There’s also the problem of Novax breaking isolation rules when he supposedly had Covid. I can’t imagine any corporate sponsor would want to be associated with that either.

    Perhaps the threat of sponsorship cancellations, together with the prospect of facing legal challenges to country entry requirements to play in tournaments will be what pushes Djokovic to finally getting vaccinated.

  27. C@tmomma @ #1079 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 6:31 am

    Elmer Fudd,
    That guy is a serious RWNJ. If Scott Morrison doesn’t realise that MPs like Antic and Rennick, because they’re staying & Christensen is not, are seriously scaring the horses, then he’s lost his political antenna and he won’t find them before the election if he doesn’t pull them up and publicly haul them back into line.

    COVID-19 isn’t your normal Right Wing Culture War tool, and this isn’t the USA.

    =-
    That’s the annoying thing Cat. Sure the star RWNJ George Christensen is going so Barnacle says hey it’s ok mate, he is going in the next election anyway .. but other RWNJs like Antic are sticking around and going on foreign Tv ffs spouting their crap.

    The best the Health Minister can do is tell the media “We don’t agree with the position taken”… oh really ? How about showing some conviction and kicking them out of the Party for a start. This is no storm in a tea cup: Corona is a deadly virus and it is messing up everyone’s lives. The political up side of this weak – kneed approach for anyone is beyond me.

  28. SMH click bating continues….

    Election race tightens after Morrison takes a summer battering

    “tightened the race for the election in May.“ David Crowes article the bit that tightens is the claim for a May election…

    False advertising

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