Novak and Nicholls

A poll supports suspicions that the federal government was following the public’s lead in deporting Novak Djokovic. Plus preselection news, though not very much of it.

Another week of the sillier-than-usual season goes by without a great deal to report, with the only new poll result I’m aware being a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finding 81% out of 1224 WA respondents surveyed around a week ago believed Novak Djokovic should be deported. Lest anyone doubt the international reach of this particular story, a British poll by YouGov found 62% believed Djokovic should not be allowed to play in the open, with only 18% believing he should. (UPDATE: And now a national poll by Resolve Strategic for the Age/Herald finds 71% believe he “should not be allowed to stay and play”.)

The biggest preselection news of the week related to Gladys Berejiklian’s former seat of Willoughby, which I’m holding off on doing a post about until a date is set for state’s looming quartet of by-elections. At federal level, both the Nationals and the Liberals now have candidates for the rural Victorian seat of Nicholls, to be vacated with the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum. These are, respectively, Sam Birrell, an agronomist and former chief executive of the Committee for Greater Shepparton, and Stephen Brooks, a Cobram high school teacher and farmer. Also in the field as an independent is Greater Shepparton deputy mayor Rob Priestly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,093 comments on “Novak and Nicholls”

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  1. I wonder what will the whole covid polarisation effect be in Victoria politics especially there later this year due to the rise of the Far-Right groups opposing Andrews and supporting the covid denial. This now causes a worrying trend of Liberal Victoria’s hard-right stance for covid mandates. Vic Libs oppose literally not just opposes the pandemic bill and lockdowns but also mask mandates, vaccine mandates, vaccine passports, self-isolation, and pretty much any covid mandates. Even worse they supported and spoke at the anti-vaxxer groups’ rallies despite their known extremism and violence. In addition, even their social media campaign on the MPs is very nasty with populist rhetoric
    I believe
    Pro-Vaxxers: Definitely a swing to Labor especially among moderates as the reasons. This is similar to the US where some traditionally GOP suburbs turn to Democrats due to the rise of the far-right in GOP. Pro-vax stances also worked well for the center-left in Canada
    Anti-Vaxxer (or “Pro-choice”): They would heavily favor LNP especially with their preferences from the anti-vax minor parties and anti-vax groups intention would be to remove Andrews. Matthew Guy and his mates even made inroads to campaign to those demographics
    Small and big Businesses: Would favor the LNP due to the long lockdowns in Victoria and would likely oppose them. However, this may not be a significant issue since it is an LNP support base
    Workers: This could be mixed. Those who want covid safety would favor the ALP but those who lost and got reduced hours would probably swing to the LNP due to their opposition to lockdowns. The lost jobs due to vaccine is the same with anti-vaxxers
    So the election could turn out to be:
    Eastern Suburbs trad LNP leaning: Further swing to ALP
    Working-class ALP heartland: Slight swing to LNP but still ALP hold comfortably
    Inner City: Unpredictable due to a significant wellness anti-vaxxer but they are only in a minority so I believe very little change
    Regional and rural: Could Overall slightly swing to ALP or even have little or no swings
    What are your thoughts?

  2. No worries – declare the music festivals as religious events the way Hillsong has done. The NSW police won’t take any action over dancing.

    NSW outdoor gigs get reprieve: with a catch

    Exemptions granted by the NSW health minister mean outdoor concerts can be held by event promoters, so long as attendees don’t engage in anything resembling dancing.
    By ANDREW MCMILLEN, ANGELICA SNOWDEN, (Oz headline)

  4. Holdenhillbilly says Monday, January 17, 2022 at 5:57 pm

    Western Australia could record up to 60,000 cases of Omicron per day unless tough restrictions are imposed, a senior doctor has warned.

    Bill Gates could give me a billion dollars.

    I have no idea if WA will record up to 60,000 cases per day. However, I tend to be pretty cynical about “could” claims.

  6. C@tmomma @ #925 Monday, January 17th, 2022 – 5:44 pm

    But boy oh boy, Player One has an Eco Resort (capitalist feigning concern for the environment variety), that they really, really want you to visit. 😐

    So, someone who actually does something for the environment – which we do, even when it costs us financially – must be a capitalist feigning concern? But someone who supports a party backed by fossil fuel interests is some kind of environmental savior?

    What strange inverted logic you Labor partisans use. I guess it’s how you live with the cognitive dissonance.

  8. Report on ABC about the lack of health care in remote communities which prevent people spending their last days in their own country amongst family. The sadness of David Gulpill.
    When approached for comment, government said it was policy to improve the services.

    BUT could not name any place where this was in train.

  10. Marh:

    Monday, January 17, 2022 at 8:09 pm

    Perhaps too many words? Not that I’m agin to too many words(?). But don’t let my minor observation turn you off this excellent site.

  11. bc at 8:14 pm
    That number is the worst case scenario number. Where nothing at all is done. Which will of course will not be the case, whether the government does anything or not the people will. As for predictions, 25,000 a day for NSW seemed a LOL prediction but the Gold Standard State smashed that figure for a six.

  12. marh,

    Don’t over think it.

    Vic Labor pick up Chisholm and Hawke.

    Good chances in Melbourne and La Trobe.

    Libs under threat in Goldstein, Higgins and maybe Kooyong to Indies.

  14. Rex Douglas:

    Monday, January 17, 2022 at 8:24 pm

    [‘Wait till the Labor Party get hold of her…’]

    I doubt Labor will. I think she’s uncorrupted by politics. She seems to me to be the real McCoy.

  16. Gasp! Ghunt does a ‘favor’ for Bad Vlad 🙂

    TGA recognises the Gamaleya Institute vaccine (Sputnik V, Russian Federation) for international travel to Australia
    17 January 2022
    Today, the TGA determined that an additional COVID-19 vaccine, the two dose course of the Gamaleya Institute vaccine (Sputnik V, Russian Federation) would be ‘recognised’ for the purpose of establishing a traveller’s vaccination status.

    https://www.tga.gov.au/media-release/tga-recognises-gamaleya-institute-vaccine-sputnik-v-russian-federation-international-travel-australia#:~:text=Today%2C%20the%20TGA%20determined%20that,establishing%20a%20traveller's%20vaccination%20status.

  17. It’s not anecdotal evidence Bushfire Bill. Quite presumptuous of you to assume that. Though I guess it was necessary for you to do that in order to support the rest of your argument.
    Nevertheless the story is true and I will provide the link for you if you like?

    Also my argument was not that we should behave like China and introduce draconian measures in order to stop people getting Long Covid but that we should do all we can, absent harsh measures, to keep the numbers down as low as humanly possible because Long Covid sounds horrible. Bad enough to drive people to commit suicide. Really.

  19. Anyone privileged to observe chickens in their chickenie lives with all their various routines and habits, their play, grooming, dustbathing, interacting, free ranging….could never in all conscience support factory farming of chooks.

  20. watson watch

    It looks to me like Mandy Nolan is the only source of the Mullumbimby anti-vaxxer claims.
    ———
    Quite a few years ago (long before covid) i saw Mandy on stage mocking Mullumbimby (where she lives) for its anti-vax residents.

  22. Apropos of the tsunami warning for much of the east coast over the weekend, I saw this long video taken of a tsunami inundating Kesennuma City in Japan. It is quite amazing the way it evolves from people fascinated by a small wave travelling up the river, over the next 15 minutes or so into a complete raging disaster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8qFi74k2UE

  23. Could be a stack of ‘trouble ‘t mill’ for Ukraine..

    Ukraine: Ex-President Petro Poroshenko returns to face treason charges

    Former President Petro Poroshenko was placed under investigation for high treason and left Ukraine in December. He is expected to head straight to a court in Kyiv………….As the former leader emerged outside the airport, he was greeted by thousands of his supporters. Some of them were waving the Ukrainian flag, while other carried posters and banners that read: “We need democracy,” “Stop repressions” and “Hands off Poroshenko.”

    https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-ex-president-petro-poroshenko-returns-to-face-treason-charges/a-60444684

  24. Mundo

    KK,s little performance today was cringe worthy. Labor minders need to keep a close watch.
    ———
    She calls Scomo …….Mr MAWison

  26. poroti

    Could be a stack of ‘trouble ‘t mill’ for Ukraine..

    ———

    Could be stack o’ trouble for all of us. Is it like 1914 when no one wanted a war?

    On the news it said Sweden is sending forces to its eastern islands as a precaution.

  27. OH and I were boostered 6 days ago, and we’ll be signing up for a 4th and more if that’s what it takes.

    FWIW after actively seeking and standing in line for our first and second AZ shots at Royal Brisbane Womens Hospital, our 3rd was Pfizer and at our local GP. And our official vaccination status was updated within 24 hours. Perhaps Australia has finally worked out how to get shots into arms.

    Regarding the vaccine itself, two days of low grade “flu-like” symptoms followed, which mainly involved feeling run down. I had difficulty sleeping the first night, and two days with a slight headache, sore joints, sore muscles, eyeball pressure, and I generally just felt like staying home in a quiet place. IOW, no big deal.

    A question occurred to me. Current vaccination mandates mandate one or two doses. Should that eventually become three, and how might that play out? The Qld check in app for example doesn’t distinguish between 2 and 3 doses. The date that shows is just the date of your most recent dose and you get a green tick if you’ve had at least two.

  28. You’re welcome.

    Word of the day is ‘sparple’ (14th century): to deflect unwanted attention from one thing by making a big deal of another.

  29. “A question occurred to me. Current vaccination mandates mandate one or two doses. Should that eventually become three, and how might that play out? ”

    At work we’ve been told boosters within a month of eligibility is mandatory, i think all WA will head that way.

  30. C@t, I believe BB was not casting doubt on the story of the suicide. He was saying that the cause of death being long Covid was anecdotal.

    It is most likely the suicide was multi factorial, of which long Covid symptoms may or may not have been contributory.

  31. “C@t, I believe BB was not casting doubt on the story of the suicide. He was saying that the cause of death being long Covid was anecdotal.

    It is most likely the suicide was multi factorial, of which long Covid symptoms may or may not have been contributory.”

    That constructed interpretation is 100% completely inconsistent with the published story and is an odd combination of mansplaining, know it all, and just making up dumb shit for no good reason.


  32. Mundo says:
    Monday, January 17, 2022 at 9:03 pm

    KK,s little performance today was cringe worthy. Labor minders need to keep a close watch.

    interesting KK went on the attack and Mundo doesn’t approve.
    What was the last 1000 Mundo posts calling for?

  33. Rakali,
    Thanks for the response.
    I’m originally from Mullumbimby (the locals just say Mullum). I left part way through primary school but still have many relatives in the area.

    I enjoy Mandy Nolan’s comedy – she is a regular Richard Glover’s program on ABC 702 Sydney.
    IMHO the anti-vaxer schtick is funny in normal times but irresponsible during a pandemic.

  34. “At work we’ve been told boosters within a month of eligibility is mandatory, i think all WA will head that way.”

    Sound enough.

    Oddly though that reminded me of a discussion in 10th grade, where our teacher was trying to get us to think about morality as a concept. It was so long ago I forget the details, but I think his example was enforced bed time. Is it good or bad? (Eye rolls, I know.) I asked him him if he thought that being required to do something that you already wanted to do changed the morality. Today, vaccination mandates feel to me like that enforced bed time did back then. But if I think about both bed time and vaccinations, I realise that vaccination mandates might induce exactly the sort of reaction in people today that mandated bed time did in some of my classmates back then, and furthermore it might explain their reaction to me, then and now. Hmm.

  36. Rakali 2 at 9:10 pm
    True. His returning now seems to point to something big going on behind the scenes. You don’t rock up to a corrupt place like Ukraine with a charge of treason hanging over your head without having something big up your sleeve.

  41. Late Riser says:
    Monday, January 17, 2022 at 9:12 pm
    A question occurred to me. Current vaccination mandates mandate one or two doses. Should that eventually become three, and how might that play out? The Qld check in app for example doesn’t distinguish between 2 and 3 doses. The date that shows is just the date of your most recent dose and you get a green tick if you’ve had at least two. …………………….
    …..
    It doesn’t matter if you can’t see the cumulative number of doses. The need for boosters is because the effectiveness of the vaccine degrades over time. If you can see that someone has had at least two doses and that the latest dose is within 6 months then you can be confident that they have the most effective level of vaccination.

  45. zoomster says:
    Monday, January 17, 2022 at 9:37 pm
    Something I’ve not seen before-

    That startled me at first glance but then I remembered that their closest surviving relative is the platypus.

  46. If you can see that someone has had at least two doses and that the latest dose is within 6 months then you can be confident that they have the most effective level of vaccination.

    Does that mean that the nice green tick in my check in app will fade as time goes on? 😇

  49. AndrewMcK

    Years ago, on holiday, we listened to an ABC radio program where the guest had studied platypi (uses?) and said that they had been observed climbing trees.

    You’ll have to take my word for it, I’ve never been able to find something to confirm this!

  50. I had the good fortune of meeting with Sally McManus a number of times about 11 years ago. She was the NSW State Secretary of the ASU. She was preparing the case for the national equal remuneration order for workers in the disability sector and was interested to hear from me and my HR colleagues in the sector. She came across as a clearly intelligent person, highly analytical and very personable. Quietly spoken and interested in hearing from every person around the table. Her performance since moving into the ACTU role is totally in keeping with what I witnessed those years ago

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