Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 35, Greens 11

What had previously been the Coalition’s best poll series opens its account for the year looking just as bad for the government as the others.

The new year polling drought has been brought to an end by Resolve Strategic, courtesy of the Age/Herald, which produces a particularly grim result for the government in view of its record as the Coalition’s strongest poll series. The Coalition primary vote is down fully five points since the last poll in mid-November to 34%, with Labor up three to 35%, the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. The pollster’s already high ratings for independents and “others” are up still further, by two points to 11% and one point to 6%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but applying 2019 preference flows produces a Labor lead of around 53-47.

The breakdowns provided for the three largest states suggest the damage has been spread pretty evenly on two-party preferred, but the Queensland figures are notable in that the major parties are down 12% between them while both the Greens and One Nation are up five. The results are worse for the Coalition among women than men, their primary vote dropping respectively by six points and three.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are nonetheless little changed, with approval and disapproval both up a point to 41% and 50%. However, Anthony Albanese records a solid improvement, with approval up three to 34% and disapproval down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 40-29 to 38-31.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607. The Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor display is yet to be updated at the time of writing, but more of the details are provided in the accompanying report. I have updated my BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but I always advise a bit of caution when the first poll is added after a break, as the result tends to weigh heavily on the end point of the trend measure.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,680 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 35, Greens 11”

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  1. 4. nature makes no leap – So gradually change and not revolutions.

    6. East-West Trade – In this context it could have been trade between Communist and non-Communist worlds.

  2. Sir Henry Parkes at 10.01pm

    Re Is it worth Dutton/Fraudenberg being PM for only a few months, then losing?

    I doubt any leadership candidate considers this, but, as far as I can tell, in the period since World War 2, no person who was elected Opposition Leader by a party that just lost government has ever gone on to be PM.

    Chifley lost to Menzies and never won government again; McMahon lost to Whitlam and was replaced by Snedden, who was never PM; Beazley replaced Keating and was never PM; Nelson replaced Howard and was never PM; Shorten replaced Rudd and (so far!) hasn’t been PM.

    Is it better to be PM for a few months and lose or enjoy the shit-sandwich (as its been described here long ago) of leading a former government party into Opposition with almost no statistical likelihood of leading that party back to government?

    I guess people who believe they can lead a party also believe they’ll be th first to buck the trend!

  3. I hope WA’s attempt to “do the experiment’ (what happens when Omicron infects a population with a high level of 3 doses) comes off. A shame there is a small Omicron presence at the moment. It could go whooshka in no time at all and wreck ‘the experiment’.

  4. Listening to the hacks quizzing McGowan I can’t help feeling I should be ashamed that WA’s hospitals are not overrun, we don’t have thousands of cases each day and people dying.
    As McGowan pointed out life here is pretty normal and the economy is going along.
    He doesn’t get much credit for taking the hard decisions that have kept WA safe.
    Just nitpicking questions and demands to know when this will happen or when that rule will be relaxed.
    As he pointed out many times, he doesn’t have a crystal ball and you never know what’s coming with Covid.
    I almost wanted him to ask them if they like a long weekend in Sydney or Melbourne.
    Oh, and at the end somebody asked if he would be happy if WA’s AFL teams had to move interstate.
    Spare me.

  5. Zoe Daniels is probably the prefect candidate independent candidate against Tim Wilson. I can see how he might rub the area the wrong way.

    The Warringah figures confirm that Zali doesn’t have much to fear.

    The Algebra woman has got her work cut out to catch with David Sharma.

    I am really waiting on some polling Kooyong. That would be interesting at this stage.

  6. Liberals tell me there wont be a challenge to Morrison’s leadership before the election because Frydenberg wants to deliver the budget and Dutton is happy to bide his time thinking that if the worst happens he wont need to worry about the inner city Liberals.

  7. I mean – given he’s on a margin below the current projected swing in QLD, Dutton could hardly be considered comfortable lol – if “the worst” happens, he’s not going to be in Parliament.

    I also don’t understand why Frydenberg would be so keen to deliver this Budget in particular…

  8. Jaeger
    “ The decision to buy the Abrams M1A2 SEPv3 tanks was made – and announced – last year well before the Attack Class cancellation hoo-ha. e.g.:”

    Thanks; I missed that news at the time. It still makes no sense though, and is not consistent with the 2020 Force Structure Plan. The tank purchase is still out of left field. Indeed, with us having withdrawn from Afghanistan and Defense now focusing on long range deterrence, they seem even less relevant now than back in 2020.

  9. Re B.S. Fairman at 11.49 pm

    See Kevin Bonham’s opinion of that poll as hot air. He notes that the rich Allegra lady does not need to get very close to Sharma on primaries to do him on preferences. She just needs those who stuck with Phelps in 2019 and two thousand more. Sharma is already shaking.

    In the very unlikely event of a hung parliament, why would the Indies back Labor, like Oakeshott and Windsor? One reason is because Labor are now strongly opposed to optional preferential voting, which is a key precondition for any future successful Indie campaigns.

  10. So, think Scomo will make any kind of response to the W.A. announcement?? Will any Journo be rude enough to ask him a question about it?? 🙂

    He will of course have a witty, pithy and pertinent response. 🙂

  11. I believe McGowan has done the right thing.Why have a let it rip strategy and infect hundreds of people just because all the others have done it. No doubt time will tell.

  12. Covid is eventually going to go through WA, if not from the current cluster then when borders are reopened (perhaps after the next election).

    However, I think it makes eminent sense to slow the rate of infection to give people time to get their booster, kids time to get vaccinated, and to hopefully give our health system more time to prepare. Hopefully the curve can be kept flatter than what we are seeing over east as well.

  13. Excellent, but not unexpected decision by WA. My friends will be very happy with the announcement as there has been widespread concern and anxiety about the borders reopening.

    Returning West Australians or those with close family connections will be able to return and quarantine. Those wanting to travel to WA for compassionate reasons must be triple vaccinated and return a negative rapid antigen test 24 hours prior to entry, and then quarantine.

    International travel will be permitted, but only under the arrivals cap and with 14 days of hotel and home quarantine.

    Poor Scotty, he won’t be able to campaign in WA ahead of the election.


    The decision to grant a visa to British far-right commentator Katie Hopkins last year is under investigation by the Australian Human Rights Commission following a complaint by a Muslim advocacy group.

    Hopkins, 46, was granted a visa to appear on a reality TV show – reportedly Channel Seven’s Big Brother VIP – and arrived in Sydney in July while the city was in lockdown and thousands of Australians were unable to return home from overseas due to tight border restrictions.

  15. [The financial crisis is worse than thought …]

    James Hacker: Bernard, Humphrey should have seen this coming and warned me.

    Bernard Woolley: I don’t think Sir Humphrey understands economics, Prime Minister; he did read Classics, you know.

    James Hacker: What about Sir Frank? He’s head of the Treasury!

    Bernard Woolley: Well I’m afraid he’s at an even greater disadvantage in understanding economics: he’s an economist.

    — Yes Prime Minister, A Real Partnership

  16. Quasar @ #1662 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 12:13 am

    Grisham tells of Trump’s ‘secret meetings’ in days before Capitol attack
    Former White House press secretary provided significant details to House select committee investigating the 6 January attack.

    Yep. Snuck in. Not signed in. Suspicious much?

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Michelle Grattan explains why she thinks the Morrison government is nowhere near ready to win an election.
    More on the Resolve poll from David Crowe who tells us that Albanese has gained an edge over Morrison on climate change policy ahead of the next election, with 37 per cent of voters backing the Labor target to cut carbon emissions while 22 per cent prefer the government goal.
    Mark McGowan has delayed the WA’s reopening over fears lagging booster vaccination rates will cause the Omicron variant to run rampant in the community.
    One of the Queenslanders Prime Minister Scott Morrison relies on to pass laws in the Senate has labelled his own leader “pathetic” and accused him of caving in over his criticism of rogue LNP MP George Christensen. Of course, it was Gerard Rennick, another Senate star.
    Young Australians have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, and they are understandably angry. David Crowe wonders if they will mobilise to deliver an electoral backlash.
    Dana Daniel and Mike Foley report on yesterday’s national cabinet meeting which didn’t seem to have produced anything momentous.
    Scott Morrison has abandoned a proposal to allow children to drive forklifts after it was rejected by states and territories and criticised as a dangerous “brain fart” by unions, writes Ben Butler.
    Jordan Baker and Tom Rabe report that, as the wait for NSW’s back-to-school plan continues ahead of next week’s reopening, teachers and principals worry they are not being given enough time to prepare.
    General practitioners are again being flooded with patients as thousands of Victorians race to book their booster shots and medical clinics struggle to find appointments for the rising wave of coronavirus patients.
    Two million rapid antigen tests could be produced in Australia every week under a pitch to use existing facilities for local manufacturing while the country continues to grapple with major test shortages. The peak body representing major suppliers says accredited plants could start manufacturing tests within six months, calling for a government commitment to purchase local tests in future if such a plan was commenced.
    As Australians struggle to access RATs tests, Greg Hunt and Scott Morrison have publicly denied allegations of stockpiling. Michelle Pini and David Donovan report.,15957
    The Independent Australia has detailed mounting evidence suggesting that the Morrison Government – caught out without an adequate plan to supply the community with RATs kits as promised – is stockpiling tests ordered by pharmacies and others in the community who did plan in advance.,15959
    Meanwhile, Melissa Coburn tells us why she is giving up her daily RAT-hunt.
    Rents have reached record highs in our biggest cities and many regional areas, leaving lower income earners and essential workers – many of whom are keeping the country going amid surging coronavirus case numbers – struggling to find affordable rental properties, explains Kate Burke.
    Michael Pascoe writes that the grants corruption rolls on, with bias in bowls too.
    Jenny Noyes reports that the decision to grant a visa to British far-right commentator Katie Hopkins last year is under investigation by the Australian Human Rights Commission following a complaint by a Muslim advocacy group.
    Angela Macdonald-Smith reports that history will be made next week when Australia ships the world’s first cargo of liquid hydrogen, an event that will mark a milestone in a looming transformation of exports with one of the country’s most important partners amid the energy transition.
    LNG producers insist they bankroll crucial government services — but the royalties they pay are paltry and the jobs they create are relatively few, explains Michael Mazengarb.
    Elizabeth Knight tells us why Alan Joyce has declared war on his cabin crew.
    The SMH editorial says that, while Australian politics can often seem absurd, the “partygate” scandal now threatening to drag down British Prime Minister Boris Johnson raises the bar a notch for hypocrisy and arrogance by senior members of a government.
    A damning report has found the former pope, Benedict XVI, failed to take action against clerics in four cases of alleged sexual abuse when he was archbishop of Munich.
    The US president’s first year has disappointed progressive supporters and generated little in the way of positive developments on the world stage, writes Mack Williams who rhinks 2022 looks daunting for Biden.
    Eryk Bagshaw informs us that the Beijing Olympic Committee has warned that dedicated departments will be able to punish athletes who protest at the Winter Olympics, escalating concerns about the safety of international competitors two weeks out from the start of the Games.

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Cathy Wilcox

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding

    John Shakespeare

    Mark David

    Simon Letch$width_840/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/6b788b2831563cbe4d853f0bebbe6fe1bdec5982
    Andrew Dyson


    From the US

  18. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Thursday, January 20, 2022 at 8:47 pm
    One thing you know for sure is that the Libs are not romantic or sympathetic if they perceive the Leader will not win. The next Newspoll is critical to Morrison’s survival. He’ll either call the Election straight away or succumb to the knife wielding assassins he used to call friends and colleagues.

    Big call that GG. Can’t wait to see the next Newspoll now.

  19. McGowan has shat on SfM & Perrette & NSW let it rip from the highest possible level… WA vs NSW spend in Covid is net +30% difference…
    Farking incompetent conservatives… WA will have No Federal members after the next election.. potato head will be PM within a month.

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