The new year polling drought has been brought to an end by Resolve Strategic, courtesy of the Age/Herald, which produces a particularly grim result for the government in view of its record as the Coalition’s strongest poll series. The Coalition primary vote is down fully five points since the last poll in mid-November to 34%, with Labor up three to 35%, the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. The pollster’s already high ratings for independents and “others” are up still further, by two points to 11% and one point to 6%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but applying 2019 preference flows produces a Labor lead of around 53-47.
The breakdowns provided for the three largest states suggest the damage has been spread pretty evenly on two-party preferred, but the Queensland figures are notable in that the major parties are down 12% between them while both the Greens and One Nation are up five. The results are worse for the Coalition among women than men, their primary vote dropping respectively by six points and three.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are nonetheless little changed, with approval and disapproval both up a point to 41% and 50%. However, Anthony Albanese records a solid improvement, with approval up three to 34% and disapproval down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 40-29 to 38-31.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607. The Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor display is yet to be updated at the time of writing, but more of the details are provided in the accompanying report. I have updated my BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but I always advise a bit of caution when the first poll is added after a break, as the result tends to weigh heavily on the end point of the trend measure.
Are there any Voices/Teal candidates running in Queensland? It seems right for the picking.
…and if the Greens are generally flatlining, then is the rise in their vote in Queensland mean that it’s declining somewhere else?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Dvid Crowe gives us the rundown n the latest Resolve poll which provided a devastating result for the Coalition.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-primary-vote-drops-below-labor-s-for-the-first-time-resolve-survey-20220117-p59orf.html
Crowe says Morrison needed a summer of love. He got a summer of loathing instead.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-race-tightens-after-morrison-takes-a-summer-battering-20220117-p59orh.html
Paul Bongiorno has returned from his break and gives us his opinion on Morrison’s summer that has changed the political calculus. It’s a good read.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/01/18/paul-bongiorno-morrison-discontent/
The failings of the Coalition Government have finally dented its support among its core constituencies that are crucial to its re-election efforts, writes Andrew P Street.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/how-scott-morrison-lost-three-core-voting-blocs-in-a-week,15946
Michael Koziol reports that Barnaby Joyce says there is nothing the federal government can do to silence anti-vaxxers in its ranks after deporting No. 1 Novak Djokovic for fear he would encourage people to shun the COVID-19 vaccine. Senior ministers on Monday faced accusations of hypocrisy for their hard line against Mr Djokovic while government MPs such as George Christensen and Senator Alex Antic continue to spread anti-vaccination messages.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-we-ve-got-anti-vaxxer-mps-but-what-can-you-do-20220117-p59oxt.html
Competition watchdog chairman Rod Sims has warned retailers selling rapid antigen tests for more than $20 that they must “urgently explain” the inflated price tag as part of the consumer watchdog’s crackdown on pharmacies and small business operators seeking to take advantage of the shortage of tests.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/accc-s-sims-demands-rat-price-gougers-urgently-explain-100-price-tag-20220117-p59oqs.html
Understaffed hospitals and care facilities, burgeoning surgery backlogs, insufficient medical graduates, rising mental health problems – the list of challenges ahead is formidable, writes Jack Waterford who says that our post-pandemic healthcare system will need massive investment. There will be a second article on this subject tomorrow.
https://johnmenadue.com/our-post-pandemic-healthcare-system-will-need-massive-investment/
Recent coronavirus cases have been less likely to be hospitalised than people infected in mid-2021, early data shows as health authorities say booster doses have played a significant role in preventing severe disease. However, writes Mary Ward, there are concerns about the state’s high case load, with vulnerable people catching the virus before receiving a booster and hospitals stretched by the sheer number of infections.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/omicron-cases-less-likely-to-enter-hospital-but-numbers-cause-strain-20220117-p59osn.html
Victoria’s chief health officer believes the Omicron wave may have peaked and be in the process of flattening and falling as the rate of transmission of the virus has declined for three days in a row. But Brett Sutton says a surge in hospital admissions is still growing, with the number of people in intensive care expected to increase for three more weeks.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-records-22-429-cases-as-government-hands-out-3-million-rats-to-key-workers-20220117-p59ooe.html
NSW residents have been warned to brace themselves for high numbers of COVID-19 deaths in the coming days as the state’s healthcare workers battle exhaustion in the face of rising hospitalisations. Health Minister Brad Hazzard hit out at people who have chosen not to get vaccinated, saying they needed “to give a damn about someone other than” themselves.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-records-29-504-covid-19-cases-and-17-deaths-20220117-p59op5.html
The shortage of rapid antigen tests for consumers is being exacerbated by state and federal governments and large corporates placing mammoth orders for the kits, causing stock to be diverted from online retailers and pharmacies, reports Anne Davies.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/18/rapid-antigen-tests-australian-consumers-miss-out-as-government-and-big-business-snap-up-supplies
Benjamin Priess tells us that unions have warned that employees will go on strike if their bosses do not provide enough protection from the fast-spreading Omicron variant as tensions mount over the response to Covid.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/unions-threaten-to-stop-work-unless-omicron-safety-measures-improve-20220117-p59ov2.html
According to Dana Daniel, GPs are warning they may have to increase fees to keep practices viable without a boost to Medicare as they demand higher rebates for longer consultations to treat chronically ill patients.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gps-warn-of-higher-fees-without-increased-medicare-rebates-for-long-consults-20220112-p59nqg.html
Human rights advocates have criticised the prime minister, Scott Morrison, after he wrongly claimed those held in detention in Australia for as long as eight years had not been recognised as refugees.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/17/pm-accused-of-outright-lie-after-claiming-detainees-in-melbourne-hotel-are-not-refugees
Cancelling Novak Djokovic’s visa was another example of a trend towards ministerial intervention, which is undermining public trust in institutions, explains Michael Lester.
https://johnmenadue.com/djokovic-visa-decision-a-warning-light-on-ministerial-discretion/
Australia’s treatment of Novak Djokovic, the tennis world number one, has been revelatory. Unintentionally, this has exposed the seedier, arbitrary and inconsistent nature of Australia’s border policies. The approval by the Australian Federal Court of the Immigration Minister Alex Hawke’s decision to re-cancel the prominent Serb’s visa left the country a heaving precedent that will be invoked, in future, with relish, predicts Binoy Kampmark.
https://theaimn.com/dangerous-precedents-and-hypothetical-threats-the-deportation-of-novak-djokovic/
Patrick Hatch and Josh Gordon report that Crown Resorts’ suitor Blackstone may have to grapple with onerous new regulations imposed on the casino giant’s flagship Melbourne property.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crown-royal-commission-findings-could-cause-headaches-for-blackstone-20220117-p59ov0.html
The trucking industry is pushing for a plan to make delivery vehicles electric, which it says will allow suburban noise curfews to be lifted and companies to save money, writes Mike Foley.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/make-trucks-electric-to-lift-suburban-curfews-and-ease-congestion-trucking-industry-20220114-p59oa0.html
Elizabeth Knight expands upon how COVID fear and supply famine have joined to decimate the likes of Kmart’s Target’s earnings.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/covid-fear-and-supply-famine-join-to-decimate-kmart-target-s-earnings-20220117-p59ors.html
Sky News sought to justify misleading Covid commentary then-host Alan Jones put to air, saying it was balanced by coverage of the daily Covid press conferences, according to a letter sent to the broadcasting regulator. What a laugh!
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/18/sky-news-claims-alan-joness-misleading-commentary-balanced-by-covering-daily-covid-press-conferences
Jess Irvine says that political rhetoric is insufficient to help Aussies own their own homes.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/political-rhetoric-insufficient-to-help-aussies-own-their-own-home-20220117-p59opc.html
Tom Switzer reckons Malcolm Turnbull had the right idea on China.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/turnbull-had-the-right-idea-on-china-20220115-p59ogw.html
Pete Shmigel has written an open letter to Novak Djokovic telling him the Australians are really glad that he got the boot. He defines the word “boofhead” to make his point.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/dear-novak-here-s-why-australians-are-really-glad-you-got-the-boot-20220117-p59ou5.html
Cartoon Corner
Peter Broelman
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Glen Le Lievre
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Warren Brown
Spooner
From the US
The issues of hard to find RATs, childcare closures, bungling the children’s vaccine rollout, and the further delays to reopening schools aren’t going to help on this front.
Only in Groom that I’m aware of (i.e. Toowoomba), which I wouldn’t have thought particularly “teal”. I’d also want more evidence of a minor party/independent blowout than this one fairly small sample.
zoomster @ #1 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 7:16 am
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So far there are only two independents I know of running in QLD, in Groom and Fadden but I don’t think they are Teals/Voices candidates.
“Tealwoomba”
Says it all really!
Thanks BK, the Bongiorno article says Albo went on Ray Hadley’s program recently. That must be a first for a Labor leader in god knows how long.
William
Thanks.
Not so much looking at the indie figures but at the (apparent) move away from both major parties in Queensland, which I would have thought meant there were opportunities there.
Maybe the Teal demographic – which seems to be middle aged professional women – isn’t as large there.
Goll @ #7 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 7:25 am
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In Queensland two female candidates are running in Groom { Suzie Holt and Kirstie Smolenski} and Stuart Brooker is running in Fadden. None of them are Teal supported candidates. Suzie Holt is the Voices of Groom candidate.
I would have thought the Teals would have shown up in seats like Brisbane but nada so far.
Fast forward about 18 months, and I can’t wait to watch the work of the newly established anti-corruption body with retrospective powers do its thing. Hunt, Porter, Fletcher, McKenzie, Joyce and Taylor all better lawyer up.
Tonga could be cut off from the outside world for more than two weeks, after volcano damages undersea cable
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-18/when-will-tongas-undersea-cable-be-repaired-/100760998
I know we like to say it doesn’t matter, but….’40-29 to 38-31′
matters.
Gentle Albo creeping up slowlee, slowlee…..catchee Smirko…..
I dislike it when people talk about an ICAC as a way of punishing people they don’t like.
And I’m not sure one could/should have retrospective powers.
If MPs have acted illegally, then there are avenues to deal with that.
If they’ve behaved in ways which are questionable ethically but within the limits of the law, restrospectivity doesn’t help.
What Causes Long COVID Symptoms? New Clues From Under the Microscope
https://scitechdaily.com/what-causes-long-covid-symptoms-new-clues-from-under-the-microscope/
The Greens primary in Queensland is not 15. The state breakdowns on this poll verge on the absurd at times.
Indonesian Island Collapse and Devastating Tsunami Not Caused by Powerful Volcanic Blast
https://scitechdaily.com/indonesian-island-collapse-and-devastating-tsunami-not-caused-by-powerful-volcanic-blast/
Then again we may end up with Tealbourne or Stealney!
zoomster said:
“I dislike it when people talk about an ICAC as a way of punishing people they don’t like.
And I’m not sure one could/should have retrospective powers.”
Strongly disagree. Eddie Obeid in NSW would have likely gotten away with his multimillion dollar fraud had your way been followed.
zoomster @ #9 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 7:31 am
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Smokenski is running in Groom on the notion that the seat has a big 2PP margin so it is overlooked in Government pork barrelling (reading between the lines) so her goal is to make the seat “marginal” so they can get a hospital for Toowoomba etc.
‘The economic benefit of being a marginal seat would have remarkable effects to our region. To bring Groom back into attention, we need to make our seat marginal”
https://www.kirstiesmolenski.com/
The Voices of Groom candidate was picked ahead of Smolenski based on her veiws on
of five questions that asked about their track record of collaboration and engagement, their views on what makes a good political representative for our electorate, how they would work on climate change, their view of the way forward on the current housing crisis in Groom, and whether our electorate is disadvantaged because it is a safe seat,”
https://www.voicesofgroom.com.au/candidate-endorsed-to-run-as-independent.
As William noted, nothing particularly Teal in either of these candidates who are focussed on local issues in the main.
I’m sure Fairfax can sort this out with more ScoMo puff pieces.
I think one of these teal candidates might perform ok in the Qld seat of Ryan. It was famously lost to John Howard at a by election by a Labor candidate who could have been almost a proto teal. As a Brisbane resident I don’t see many other opportunities as we have more of the traditional ALP/LNP split with a bit of the green tinge coming into the equation around the more central areas. The LNP obviously have the advantage federally up here if not at state level. I still think the treatment of Rudd rankles some former ALP voters.
This thought bubble from Perrottet reminds of the old Soviet joke “We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us”.
It’s rather hard to RAT test school students twice a week if there aren’t enough RATs available.
Hunt: “That’s just a plain lie”……………………… is just a plain lie.
citizen,
Don’t worry, the Private Schools will have RATs coming out of their ears. Remember the vaccines?
Given Resolve’s purpose as an ‘opinion poll’ for Nine, I’d have expected it to show a 10% movement to Morrison. It must be really bad for the Libs in the real polls, then.
somethinglikethat
You’re sounding a lot like an ex LNP politician
Premier: “It’s really important for our children that they are back in the classrooms on day one, term one.”
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The same way as it was really important to open up on December 15th 2021 , which made matters worse by allowing the spread of different variants of corona virus to rampant through the state and majority of the country .
C@tmomma @ #24 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:13 am
You would have thought a man telling a plain lie would not use the word “lie” at all in his spin doctor antics. What a dumb thing to say.
zoomster said:
“I dislike it when people talk about an ICAC as a way of punishing people they don’t like.
And I’m not sure one could/should have retrospective powers.”
And you watch the Coalition completely ignore that principled stand as soon as they get back into power and have gotten off Scott free if Labor get into power and take that stand.
Principles are for schools.
ps yes, I know it’s actually Principals.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 8:17 am
And you watch the Coalition completely ignore that principled stand as soon as they get back into power and have gotten off Scott free if Labor get into power and take that stand.
Principles are for schools.
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Playing nice in politics just doesnt work in Australia , thats why the lib/nats the way they are .
I agree with WB. Don’t get over excited by this Resolve Poll. The series has been all over the shop since introduced and this one reeks of some secret hand manipulation to bring it in to line with the current paradigm or simply a sample struggling to be engaged in politics during the summer break.
The Corrupt Lib/nats and their foreign own propaganda media unit and other propaganda media units need to be called out and face any consequences
cat,
Yes but the Price of Polls is WB.
Interesting latest Resolve Strategic results…. But now I am truly curious to see the fully post-Djokovic polls results…. Let’s see whether the Scomocchio’s “Tampa” gambit did work…. If it doesn’t, poor Scomocchio and his Coalition gang would be truly standing on the edge of a cliff… time is fast running out.
Prince planet @ #22 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:08 am
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Williams seat profile says in Ryan the Labor favoured areas in Ryan are “overwhelmed electorally by the wealthier riverside suburbs of Indooroopilly and Kenmore in the south and conservative-leaning The Gap and Bardon in the centre”.
The ‘Doctors Wives’ in Ryan might be willing to go with a Teal candidate instead of the Greens who scored 20% of the PV there in 2019. Probably wouldn’t do much more than annoy the LNP but it would be worth a shot if a well known local woman stood up for the Teals. I hope Labor gets a good run at Leichardt, Longman and Flynn up there but who knows what the UAP and PHON morons will do in their strongest State. IF Palmer goes after Labor again like he did in April – May in 2019 QLD might be slim pickings for Labor.
The Murdoch goons at the Daily ToiletPaper must think their readers are idiots – a ‘secret operation’ on the front page with Dom the Saviour bringing in RATs…
Inside the secret operation deploying RATs to schools
Stockpiles of rapid antigen tests are being kept in a secret warehouse in western Sydney and delivered to schools in a military-like operation.
BK:
“Paul Bongiorno has returned from his break and gives us his opinion on Morrison’s summer that has changed the political calculus. It’s a good read.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/01/18/paul-bongiorno-morrison-discontent/ ”
I fully agree, the article is highly recommended!… Scomocchio is running out of ideas…. and time!… Oh, did anyone mention a second “miracle”?…. Miracles don’t happen when you have attracted the Wrath of God!
sprocket_ @ #37 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:32 am
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OMG . Nothing surprises me any more about this mob of RWNJs
sprocket_ @ #37 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:32 am
Um, there was footage of a warehouse in Sydney full of RATs last night on the news. Some secret! 😀
Bulldust said:
“You’re sounding a lot like an ex LNP politician”
Uggh, that’s bleak. I just want accountability, like most people.
My life in the business world would have seen me lose my job if my behaviour was just a fraction of what some in politics seemingly get away with. We all need to be held to a better standard.
I hope Labor gets a good run at Leichardt
Waiting, waiting, waiting, for Warren Entsch to retire. 🙂
The Australian – Page 4 : 18 January 2022
South Australian Liberal senator Alex Antic intends to continue his protest against the federal government when parliament resumes in February. Antic began abstaining from voting on government legislation in 2021, as he was unhappy that Prime Minister Scott Morrison refused to ban vaccine mandates. Antic has criticised the recent deportation of unvaccinated tennis star Novak Djokovic, as have fellow rebel MPs Gerard Rennick and George Christensen. Rennick and Christensen abstained from voting on government legislation in December, but have yet to indicate whether they will do so again when parliament resumes.
Murdoch’s Fox News is mounting a fever pitch attack on Biden and the Democrats as reflected in this piece in the Oz. Obviously the Republicans and Murdoch are dead scared of the outcome of the Biden administration’s forensic examination of the activities of Trump and his ilk.
Holdenhillbilly @ #43 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:40 am
Which will all serve as a reminder to the electorate of what they’ll get if they vote for this mob again.
I’m sure it’s actually all part of Morrison’s grand plan to court the Extreme Right, but I think he’s losing more of the Centre Right by doing it.
Adam Creighton is an ideological zealot and a shill.
Elmer Fudd:
“QLD might be slim pickings for Labor.”
The Bludger Track gives around 50-50% in the 2PP for Qld, that’s a swing of 7.5% in favour of the ALP in the state. If such swing is repeated across the state on election day, the ALP may end up winning 6 extra seats in Queensland!!…. That’s not “slim” at all!
The LNP, Palmer and Hanson are on the way down in Qld….
C@tmomma @ #42 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:39 am
Shoosh now /. LMAO. Let me dream.
C@
Perfectly possible for Labor to put in an ICAC without it having retrospective powers.
somethinglikethat
My apologies, that comment was meant to be directed at Zoomster