The new year polling drought has been brought to an end by Resolve Strategic, courtesy of the Age/Herald, which produces a particularly grim result for the government in view of its record as the Coalition’s strongest poll series. The Coalition primary vote is down fully five points since the last poll in mid-November to 34%, with Labor up three to 35%, the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. The pollster’s already high ratings for independents and “others” are up still further, by two points to 11% and one point to 6%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but applying 2019 preference flows produces a Labor lead of around 53-47.
The breakdowns provided for the three largest states suggest the damage has been spread pretty evenly on two-party preferred, but the Queensland figures are notable in that the major parties are down 12% between them while both the Greens and One Nation are up five. The results are worse for the Coalition among women than men, their primary vote dropping respectively by six points and three.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are nonetheless little changed, with approval and disapproval both up a point to 41% and 50%. However, Anthony Albanese records a solid improvement, with approval up three to 34% and disapproval down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 40-29 to 38-31.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607. The Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor display is yet to be updated at the time of writing, but more of the details are provided in the accompanying report. I have updated my BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but I always advise a bit of caution when the first poll is added after a break, as the result tends to weigh heavily on the end point of the trend measure.
z,
Well the Libs have tried to take us back to the 50s. So, I guess it is fair enough the FICAC starts there.
Spooner must be gunning for Leak’s job.
Ch 10 news this morning had video of pallets of (supposedly) RATs being shifted and planes taking off to accompany its story on RATs being delivered to schools in NSW.
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Dvid Crowe gives us the rundown n the latest Resolve poll which provided a devastating result for the Coalition.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-primary-vote-drops-below-labor-s-for-the-first-time-resolve-survey-20220117-p59orf.html
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This is one poll where LNP posters of PB were hanging their “LNP victory path” hat. Infact Larse was on record fiercely promoting Resolve poll.
Yes, things can change and it happened to Keating and Howard once each. Keating had his GST case moment and Howard his Tampa and 9/11 moments. Based on that argument it happened once to Morrison.
‘Independent school principals have also been told they could ask parents to volunteer to supervise students in classrooms amid concerns that up to 20 per cent of teachers at a single school could be off sick at once.’
One of the scenarios my son had to analyse as part of his teacher training was just this – parents called in to supervise students.
It ended badly, because parents don’t understand the responsibilities a teacher has.
Basically, the message was ‘don’t do this, it will end badly.’
I predict the Omega wave will be over by the time the election begins.
Morrison will be re-elected and all those hardworking amd deserving can continue to enjoy healthy growth in capital and assets unto their lives’ end. Praise the Lord!
Alpo @ #47 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:47 am
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I hope you are right but the cynic in me chops whatever the polls say about the 2PP swing in Queensland and WA is in half and starts my guesstimates from there. So in QLD 7.5 % becomes 3.75%. Why ? William and guys like Kevin Bonham should be asked why it happens, but historically the polls often produce swing predictions that are bloated in QLD and WA in particular.
Can you tell me what you base your view that Palmer and Hanson are on the way down in Queensland on please.
Just because a politician makes a decision you disagree with doesn’t mean they’ve done something illegal.
Too much of the discussion around a Federal ICAC seems to be aimed at getting back at MPs people don’t like, rather than punishing them for something they’ve actually done.
For an ICAC to work, it has to be totally apolitical. One set up on the premise that certain individuals are definitely guilty of something and we just have to find out what it is, is going to be flawed from the start.
I notice a lot of reporting on the terrible Tongan situation often involves reports from people there and the regular references to God are quite noticeable. The missionaries did a ‘good’ job on the Tongans.
The local Uniting Church actually had a Tongan minister at one time and I remember he was with my family at the death of my father (I had long before given up on religion and the church but my mother was an elder and very involved still).
The minister began to tell a story (I suppose he thought it a modern parable ) but the gist was a warning that Islam was trying to infiltrate our ‘Christian country’. This was while our grieving family is gathered in the room with my recently deceased father lying in the bed.
It was at this point that I realised just how deeply f#@ked religion was and it was also the first time I had encountered bigotry in anyone other than European Australians .
I wish all the Tongan people the best for their progress in the months to come but I just wonder whether religion will be any positive influence on this.
Nostradamus @ #56 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:58 am
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And who are the undeserving Nostra. Anyone who is not a RWNJ ?
NSW records 36 deaths and 29,830 cases
There are 2,850 people in hospital with COVID-19, 209 of those in the ICU.
Of the nearly 30,000 new cases, 16,067 came from PCR tests and 13,763 from RATs
The United Nations Satellite Centre has some preliminary damage assessment in Tonga:
https://twitter.com/UNOSAT
From this: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-we-ve-got-anti-vaxxer-mps-but-what-can-you-do-20220117-p59oxt.html
Senator Antic appeared on Serbian television to defend Mr Djokovic and condemn his own government’s “regrettable” decision to deport him.
“I understand that this has been done on the grounds of the public interest. I don’t know what that means,” he said.
Sums it up nicely.
Two doses of an mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) vaccine or one dose of viral vector (Johnson & Johnson) COVID-19 vaccine was insufficient to produce adequate immunity to a lab-created Omicron variant, but a booster dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine provided the best immune protection.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-mrna-booster-vaccine-offers-best-protection-against-omicron
I wonder what Scotty will dream up this week to distract us from the disappointing poll.
Perhaps he’ll join the searchers for the lost little girl.
Young child explaining Boris Johnson situation to grandparents. It is too sweet.
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Now this is the analysis we need from media commentators – explain what’s happening, without fear or favour. https://t.co/LIs6mPKtJI
Lizzie
I have only just started following the incident of the missing girl in the Blue mountains.
Allegedly neighbours saw a car leaving the home at around 4.30 am in morning before the girl was reported missing.
As long as it’s genuinely independent, then I’m all for a retrospective ICAC. It’s time for some actual accountability, as it’s becoming increasingly obvious that those currently in charge are under the (probably justified) belief that they can get away with anything.
And if some Labor pollies get caught up in it too, as I’m sure will almost certainly happen, well… Good riddance.
Vic has 20,000 cases and 22 deaths.
The death count is very sobering.
Victoria records 22 deaths and 20,180 cases
The number of people with the virus in hospital is at 1,152, with ICU admissions at 127.
There were a total of 20,180 new cases in the reporting period (11,77 RAT / 8,433 PCR).
Victoria @ #67 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 9:13 am
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I think it was day three when they bought in Homicide detectives to that case; that is not good. So sad.
Dandy Murray
“I understand that this has been done on the grounds of the public interest. I don’t know what that means,” he said.
Sums it up nicely.
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Fancy! a new baby Liberal Senator doesn’t even know what the “public interest” is!
He will go far. At the least a Liberal Treasurer.
36 deaths in NSW , not good
On the poll: I’m still not sure I particularly trust Resolve, but a very encouraging result nonetheless.
Time is running out for Scomo.
Victoria
The parents have given very unsatisfactory answers to police. They can’t remember when they last saw her or what clothes she was wearing.
Elmer Fudd
The whole scenario is quite strange. I hope she is still alive somewhere.
Victoria @ #69 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 9:15 am
–From memory the death toll for this year across Australia was 307 yesterday and Australia was number 2 on the death’s per capita list far above UK, USA, etc. So much for the benefits of ‘let it rip’.
I’m happy for an ICAC to investigate pollies of all colours, and I’m happy for past crimes to be investigated.
It’s more the vindictive nature of some of the arguments which worries me.
An ICAC can’t be an instrument used to punish people just because you don’t like them, and yet that’s how many seem to frame it.
The whole “Omicron will be over by May and Scomo will easily win” argument operates under the assumption that there won’t be any other scandals, policy failures, or general embarrassing screw-ups in the meantime, which recent history would suggests to be a rather… flawed assumption.
GHunt was right that the gov was not redirecting all the RATs. Seems that Big Business is also the culprit.
Rakali @ #72 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 9:17 am
Antic’ antics are all the more egregious for his father being a Respiratory Physician.
@ alpo847am
As much as I share hopes of a Labor swing here in Qld, it seems that swings are seldom repeated
similarly across States , regions or nationally. If Labor holds its seats here and even picks up one or two, then it would have played its part in hopefully a changing of government.
My hopes are with Victoria and WA where swings are likely to be more consistent, if they happen.
I must admit that I am over predictions of voting trends based on 2019 results. To me, so much has been written about how the nation has changed that those results surely are , at best, unreliable as an indicator of the outcome. Yes, they may indicate possible outcomes in marginal seats where a trend is evident, but are no guarantor of results.
Williams prognostications, however, are, as always, interesting and useful. Cheers, William.
Zoomster:
Sure, but that vindictiveness you mention is mainly from people online who have no influence whatsoever over what actually happens. I don’t really see how that’s particularly relevant to the pros and cons of Labor’s proposal for a federal ICAC, which presumably was not devised by #auspol and the Poll Bludger comment section.
Ultimately, what we are seeing here is mostly just powerless nobodies* letting off steam online about those who do hold the levers of power, rather than serious policy proposals by those who actually make policy.
* And I don’t mean that pejoratively: I’m also a powerless nobody.
UK Cartoons:
Alpo @ #35 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:26 am
And this is where I think Morrison won’t get his Tampa moment.
John Howard expertly leveraged growing public sentiment, from the middle of society, against refugees and asylum seekers. You may think that was right or wrong but that’s what his political antenna picked up and it turned out he was right. He won the Tampa election. He was wrong with WorkChoices though as he thought he could leverage the ABN Tradie demographic a bit more and it didn’t work out because the wife and the kids were among the exploited.
Nevertheless, my point is, he was ahead of the curve.
Morrison, otoh, as he always does, follows not leads and he has been trying to follow John Howard’s example. However, as with every other move Morrison has tried to make, or has made with the pandemic, the herd are going in a different direction, and are more nuanced in their understanding of his ‘Rules Are Rules’ slogan # 1226, and can see through the artifice he attempted to create around Djokovic not following ‘the Rules’ to see that he is not being consistent with his own MPs in applying ‘the Rules’ to them and so are not rewarding him for his ‘Rules Are Rules’ stance.
Whether his own MPs are Australian citizens, or entitled to free speech, or any other malarkey, or not.
Because I think consistency is what is being asked for and what people are not getting from Morrison as he tries to play both ends against the middle, by trying to appeal to Tealish Wellness Anti Vaxxers (they exist and a lot vote Liberal) and the ‘Don’t Tread On Me’ Freedumb Anti Vaxxers. All of whom he needs to stitch together as a voting coalition if he is to be any chance of another ‘miracle’ win in May.
People are preferring to go with the science, and a consistent approach based upon that, rather than whether ‘rules’ are being obeyed or not.
Nostradamus @ #56 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 8:28 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH5USLpPa_0
I can’t predict with certainty how the election will turn out but these bad numbers for the government seem pretty baked-in and not just an immediate reaction to something recent and unpopular. If Morrison’s fortunes do turn around (something I am not ruling out the possibility of), it won’t just be the simple removal of one recent negative stimulus that does it.
rhwombat
Antic’ antics are all the more egregious for his father being a Respiratory Physician.
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I wonder what daddy thinks!
Maybe it’s teenage rebellion.
I think one of these teal candidates might perform ok in the Qld seat of Ryan. It was famously lost to John Howard at a by election by a Labor candidate who could have been almost a proto teal. As a Brisbane resident I don’t see many other opportunities as we have more of the traditional ALP/LNP split with a bit of the green tinge coming into the equation around the more central areas. The LNP obviously have the advantage federally up here if not at state level. I still think the treatment of Rudd rankles some former ALP voters.
Leonie Short was the Labor candidate who won the Ryan bye-election in 2001. Good candidate. Realistically though even if Tampa and September 11 hadn’t happened it would have been hard for her to retain at the 2001 general election. Short only barely won it, there would have been some voters who probably would have reverted back to voting Liberal to cost her the seat.
Not sure what happened to Short. I remember seeing her complain in the media that Tim Quinn was handed Brisbane Lord Mayor in a backroom move to replace Jim Soorley. When she would have liked to put her hand up to run. Frankly, she had a point. Quinn had no charisma and was defeated to a then unknown Campbell Newman at the following council elections.
Anyway who cares enough about Djokovic to really think about it will be wondering why he was given a visa in the first place…
If anything, it just feeds a growing perception of the Government’s serial incompetence.
Rakali @ #88 Tuesday, January 18th, 2022 – 9:58 am
Nah – Antic Jr is just another snotty, over-privileged lawyer who licked the Right arses.
@Citizen is Murdoch worried about an FCC finding that he is not a fit and proper person to hold a transmission licence.
Antic Snr was the go to “expert” on asbestos claims when there was a litigation boom in SA in the early 2000s.
Resolve are clearly on probation – but it’s still telling, given their off-trend results, for them to deliver an on-trend result.
I think it’s folly to make any prediction about an election that now seems to be five months away.
The one thing is the Government needed a circuit-breaker, on something people a) give a shit enough b) give ENOUGH of a shit to change their voting intention. My own view is people thinking Morrison could turn Novax into a circuit-breaker, more than anything shows the difficult situation they’re in, and they could hardly wedge Labor on it.
In 2019 – the Budget “surplus” six weeks before an election was the perfect circuit-breaker to then hang the Shorten tax-scare campaign during the election (the reports on internal party polling shows the Budget changed the trajectory). The general view here was the Government did not want to go a Budget before the election – despite what the provisional sitting-calendar might have suggested.
There is a point where people just stop listening … I think a LOT of people have, but the question on the election is how many.
jt1983:
Agree on the folly, but the election can’t be five months away – the last available date for a half-Senate election is May 21st, which is only 4 months and change away.
The timing of Resolve polls were always a bit strange. For example, on two or three occasions, when Victoria entered a lockdown they commissioned a Victorian opinion poll. I imagine the Age hoped to see movement away from Andrews. They never had polls at other times. This Federal resolve poll might have been put in place to cash in on Morrison’s tough on Novax line (and blame it on Dan Andrews line), and we see how that backfired.
Perhaps simple facts might be the go, not transcribing releases from the PMO.
@caf – indeed. I’ve on leave, so clearly my ability to count has been impacted, lol.
“The ‘Doctors Wives’ in Ryan might be willing to go with a Teal candidate instead of the Greens who scored 20% of the PV there in 2019. ”
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The “Voices of” movement are actually active on the ground in Ryan…
The Djokovic story will not change votes. Not a one.
The shift in voting intention that’s been identified by Resolve is interesting. This ‘series’ has had a pronounced pro-Lib lean. Either they’ve corrected the lean in their algorithm or voters have in fact shifted their intentions.
In the approaching election as in every other one, there are relatively small cohorts of voters in a relatively small number of seats who will decide the outcome. Who are these voters? You can be sure that Crosby Textor and Cambridge Analytics know who they are, where they are and what their mood is. Are they preparing to shift their allegiance from the Liberals to Labor?
Considering the election has not yet been called, then we could surmise that some of these past-Liberal voters are disenchanted with the most incompetent, corrupt, lazy, dishonest, untrustworthy and ineffectual government seen since Federation.
The Liberals cannot seriously run on their record (though they will try). They cannot run a plausible fear campaign against Labor (though they will try). What will they run with? They have very little time. Voters will not be listening to them right now. The Liberals are usually very adroit at courting the persuadable to support them. Their wedges have all failed so far. What will they campaign with?