New year news: Gilmore, Pearce, Mayo

The Liberals get candidates sorted in two key seats, while a poll suggests Rebekha Sharkie has little to fear in Mayo.

First up, please note two other important posts above and below this one: the former asking for money, the latter offering an opportunity for on-topic discussion about the Senate election to mark the happy occasion of the publication of my new Senate election guide, complementing the already published seat-by-seat guide to the House.

With that out of the way, three new items of federal election news to ring in the new year:

• State MP Andrew Constance is now effectively confirmed as the Liberal candidate for the key seat of Gilmore on the New South Wales South Coast, which forms a major part of the government’s re-election strategy given its hope that Constance can recover a seat that was lost in 2019. His main rival, Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, withdrew from the race last week, saying he had formed the view that Constance was best placed to win, a view that was backed by a Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald based on party polling. Others to withdraw over the past fortnight were Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne, who said he was concerned he would face Section 44 issues due to his business dealings with the government.

• The Liberal candidate to succeed Christian Porter in the northern Perth seat of Pearce is Linda Aitken, a nurse and Wanneroo councillor who has run unsuccessfully three times for the state seat of Butler. Peter Law of The West Australian reports Aitken won a ballot of local party members ahead of Miquela Riley, a former navy officer who ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Fremantle in March, by 31 votes to 23. Aitken is a member of the Victory Life Church, founded by tennis champion and noted social conservative Margaret Court. Riley had conservative credentials of her own, with earlier reports suggesting she had support from The Clan, the factional group that achieved notoriety after an extensive WhatsApp discussion between its principals was leaked to the media.

• Elizabeth Henson of The Advertiser reports a uComms phone poll of 828 respondents for the Australia Institute suggested Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie to be headed for another comfortable win in her Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo, with a 58.5-41.5 lead over the Liberals on two-party preferred, compared with her 55.1-44.9 winning margin over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in 2019. The primary vote figures quoted are 30.9% for Sharkie, 30.8% for the Liberals, 13.3% for Labor, 7.7% for the Greens, 6.5% for One Nation, 3.3% for the United Australia Party and 3.0% for independents, with the spare 4.5% presumably being undecided. As reported on the Australia Institute website, the poll also found overwhelming support for an integrity commission and truth in political advertising laws.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,489 comments on “New year news: Gilmore, Pearce, Mayo”

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  1. Confessions @ #3349 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 7:17 pm

    The problem with the steep short curve is that’s just the cases. There’s all the downstream impacts that flow from it weeks and months after the fact.

    He can make people with Long Covid suffer in their jocks after the election. Obviously they have sinned against the Almighty and deserve it. 😐

  2. Just wondering if the selected concession cardholders who are getting the 10 free test for 3months , are in coalition held seats only

  4. Please tell me I’m misinterpreting Morrison, but he said they looking at the OSH requirements around testing and isolating aged care workers. Hundreds of Aged care homes are again in lockdown and he is siding with penny pinching providers over giving RAtests to aged care workers.
    I hope I misinterpreted because this is pure lunacy

  5. C@tmomma @ #3351 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 7:18 pm

    Confessions @ #3349 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 7:17 pm

    The problem with the steep short curve is that’s just the cases. There’s all the downstream impacts that flow from it weeks and months after the fact.

    He can make people with Long Covid suffer in their jocks after the election. Obviously they have sinned against the Almighty and deserve it. 😐

    Yep, good point. I’d forgotten about long Covid.

  6. max says:
    Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 7:16 pm

    I should know this, but does the NSW Parliament have fixed 4 year terms? That is, I guess Perrotet couldn’t call an early election unless there was a successful no confidence vote in the Lower House ?
    ———————————————-
    Im not taking about an election but other matters which
    Perrottet will be lucky if he is still NSW premier in September this year

  7. Andrew_Earlwood @ #3326 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 6:46 pm

    Harris was given 16 chances to get a score before the Boxing Day test.

    Compare that with Khawaja: after scoring his eight test hundred, he was dropped after only another 6 innings (which included a 40 and 36). This is a resting theme of Khawaja’s career: for some reason he ‘takes one for the team’ in circumstances where other players on equally shaky ground as to form get an extended run.

    Recent Test form of Khwaja is very ordinary in 2019, 6 matches , 11 innings, Highest score of 101, average of 29.44.

  8. Confessions @ #3354 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 7:19 pm

    C@t:

    What do you think about Labor’s candidate for Jodi McKay’s seat?

    Another fantastic choice by NSW Labor under Bob Nanva and Chris Minns. Jason Yat-sen Li was first chosen by Kevin Rudd, iirc, to run against John Alexander in Bennelong in 2013. He lost because he wasn’t willing to shell out for Ping Pong tables and John was. 😀

    Seriously though he has had a very distinguished career both in China and Australia. Andrew_Earlwood may know him better.


  9. Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly says hospitalisations from COVID are comparatively decreasing.CREDIT:ALEX ELLINGHAUSEN

    What is it with this government and coloured spreadsheets? It’s as if they’re making it up as we go along. (/sarc)

  10. I think Morrison/Joyce will take the Liberals/Nationals to the next election, but just suppose Morrison is dumped by his colleagues. What would Morrison do? Would he stick around like Abbott or leave in a huff like Turnbull? How close to a federal election can you have a by-election? Who would the Liberal candidate be? (And I’ve forgotten, but didn’t the Liberals institute some rule about dumping a sitting PM?)

    Party rules to prevent a spill without 60% support can be changed by simple majority. They are window dressing. If a majority of the party room decides it’s time for Scotty to spend more time with the family he’s finished.

    As to by elections, nah. Too close to the election. Gladys announced her resignation on Oct 1 and we still don’t have a date for the by election(s) but they sure won’t be Jan.

    Even if they moved on Morrison in the Feb sitting and he spat the dummy there wouldn’t be time to have a by election before the May 21 (at the latest) election.

    If there was a move on him though it would probably need to be in the Budget sitting (which obviously would mean they are incredibly desperate) which is the end of March. That would almost be Hawke situation in reverse with the government rather than the opposition starting the campaign with a newly elected leader. It would be 5-6 weeks before the election date.

    For all of his incompetence Morrison knew how to set a parliamentary calendar that makes it almost impossible for the reps and senators to be in Canberra at the same time. I can only speculate why.

  14. The numbers are a gross underrepresentation of the infected. 20 + 22 year old daughters report nearly everyone they know is sick, even some who’ve had it already. Who knows if it’s the Delta/Omicron bug. They can’t get PCR tested so relying on the RA tests which are all saying + so you know it’s bad.

    This is what ScuMo & Perrotit wanted. They’ve banked everything on it blowing through but that was a massive error.

  15. In working out when to hold an election Morrison will no doubt be aware that it’s the best part of five weeks from calling it to polling day. 33 days I think.

    Just think what has happened in the last five weeks.

    When was freedom day in NSW? December 15?

    And hasn’t that worked out well.

  16. Just wondering if the selected concession cardholders who are getting the 10 free test for 3months , are in coalition held seats only

    Nah, just green colour coded seats on the spreadsheet.

  17. MORE cafe proprietors.

    My theory is that the Journalistic class eats on the run, a lot. They tend to patronize coffee emporiums, restaurants and other classes of up-market(ish) eateries.

    Ditto hairdressing salons, manicure studios, gyms, holiday accommodations and child care creches.

    At these places they get the owner in their ears, whingeing about the travails of “Small Business”.

    Hence the preponderance of such “Small Businesses” on the nightly news and current affairs shows.

    Anyway, that’s my theory: the people who are whingeing are the people the journos mix with.

  20. Bushfire Bill @ #3367 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 7:36 pm

    MORE cafe proprietors.

    My theory is that the Journalistic class eats on the run, a lot. They tend to patronize coffee emporiums, restaurants and other classes of up-market(ish) eateries.

    Ditto hairdressing salons, manicure studios, gyms,
    nAdholiday accommodations.

    At these places they get the owner in their ears

    I guess they’re easy pickings because you can just walk into them and ask questions. A bit harder to do that with other businesses impacted by Covid which don’t have a physical shopfront, or larger chains where the staff working on the floor aren’t the owners.

  21. In the old days journalists used to get their feedback from taxi drivers.

    In my recent experience most taxi drivers these days (and uber operatives) are not interested, or able, to talk to their clients.

  22. For all of his incompetence Morrison knew how to set a parliamentary calendar that makes it almost impossible for the reps and senators to be in Canberra at the same time.

    Thanks. Makes sense. So it’s not really a question of alternatives. Morrison is our responsibility. We will get to pass judgement. And in the meantime a lot of people are doomed to getting sick or worse and an even greater number are doomed to suffer the fallout from that. It will feel like a long time.

  25. And just on the sanctity of fixed terms, a parliamentary majority can adjust that with a simple vote.

    For example, the Brexit election which BoJo won was 2 years early than the 5 year fixed term legislation dictated.

    Solution? As the 2 major parties wanted a ‘clear the decks’ election with no-one able to command the floor of the Commons, passed this..

    The Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019 (c. 29) is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom that made legal provision for the holding of the 2019 United Kingdom General Election on Thursday 12 December 2019.[1]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019

  26. [‘Archibald Prize-winning artist dies of COVID aged 53.

    Artist Craig Ruddy – whose controversial and memorable portrait of the late actor David Gulpilil won the Archibald Prize – has died, aged 53, from COVID-19 complications.

    Ruddy died in the arms of his partner, actor Roberto Meza Mont, at his home in Byron Bay, in northern NSW, on Tuesday. In a statement, Meza Mont, Ruddy’s twin sister, Kelli O’Shannassy, and his family, said they were devastated and in shock.

    Ruddy’s death follows the passing of the subject of his most famous artwork, David Gulpilil: Two worlds, in November, aged 68.

    The large-scale painting of the Indigenous actor, who achieved global frame in movies including Rabbit Proof Fence and The Tracker, won both the Archibald Portrait Prize and People’s Choice Award in Sydney and Melbourne in 2004.’] – SMH

  28. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 7:36 pm

    MORE cafe proprietors.

    My theory is that the Journalistic class eats on the run, a lot. They tend to patronize coffee emporiums, restaurants and other classes of up-market(ish) eateries.

    Ditto hairdressing salons, manicure studios, gyms, holiday accommodations and child care creches.

    At these places they get the owner in their ears, whingeing about the travails of “Small Business”.

    Hence the preponderance of such “Small Businesses” on the nightly news and current affairs shows.

    Anyway, that’s my theory: the people who are whingeing are the people the journos mix with.
    ————
    Most journalists live in wealthier areas where you find those sorts of small businesses and people frequently travel and the media companies are all in the inner city and that is why the media has reacted to restrictions that directly effect them and why they were whinging about Andrews but Gladys restrictions didn’t effect them as much because most of them didn’t live or associated with Sydney’s west so they were free of any hassle.

  29. news.com poll re. Novax’s C.19 exemption:

    [‘Yes, if he meets all the criteria for one it’s only fair – 14 %

    Yes, the world No. 1 should get special treatment – 2 %

    No, it’s simple – no vaccination, no play – 57 %

    No, and we should boo him throughout the entire grand slam – 27 %

    79014 votes’]

  30. On Twitter. Too funny.

    ———

    Scott Morrison reveals that his wife Jenny has personally managed to secure more rapid tests than his entire government

  31. Dandy Murray @ #3184 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:31 pm

    I’m not convinced that the freedom to walk into any retail outlet and procure specific goods and services is one we need to use the arms of the state to enforce.

    So it’s fine for the state to (among other things):

    – Tax the business (and everybody else)
    – Maintain and deploy an army to defend from external threats
    – Legislate to protect from theft, property damage, and other internal threats
    – Provide police, courts, prisons, etc. to enforce the legislation

    …but requiring the business to do its business-dealings in a non-discriminatory way is somehow a step too far? That seems rather convenient, for the business. They get all the benefits, with almost none of the cost.

  35. I’m really getting sick to death of all the cheesy Australian government ads on the TV! I just saw one for Australia Day. Since when have we had to have a passing parade paraded in front of us of just how marvellously multicultural we are!?! Why does Scott Morrison feel the overweening need to commercialise everything about us!?! I just want him to go away and leave the country alone! We’re being turned into one big pastiche of ourselves by this man!

  36. Lockdown of aged care centre in Barnaby Joyce’s Electorate

    Remember Morrison said there would be no more lockdowns

    https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/7571154/elderly-residents-staff-test-positive-as-aged-care-homes-lock-down/?cs=12

    AT LEAST two elderly residents and more staff at Tamworth aged care facilities have tested positive for COVID-19 as homes are plunged into lockdown and protective measures are ramped up.

    The Leader can reveal Bupa Aged Care, Uniting Aged Care and Nazareth House have been affected, forcing an immediate ban to be put on almost all visitors.

    A spokesperson for Uniting Aged Care confirmed two residents in McKay House tested positive for COVID-19 early in the new year, and the outbreak management plan was immediately activated.

    The spokesperson hit out at the pandemic health response for not prioritising aged care when it comes to PCR testing and support measures.

    “This new variant of COVID-19 has high rates of community transmission, which means more outbreaks in residential aged care are inevitable, which will see some of the most vulnerable people in our community become infected,” they said.

  37. Summarising 730’s covid report, Australia’s health system isn’t coping. It may be too soon to call it triage, but the focus is definitely on who gets to be at the front of the treatment queue, and who doesn’t.

  40. Multiple choice question…

    So the PM’s wife walks into a Kirribilli pharmacy and asks them if they have any RATs to spare…

    The pharmacy owner says:

    A. “Piss off, we’re full.”

    B. “Do I know you from somewhere?”

    C. “I’ll see what I’ve got here under the counter… Well, blow me down!”

  42. When desanitiser was a little hard to get, my SIL went into a corner store, saw it behind the counter but was told by the owner he had none while he moved his body to obscure it.

  43. Interesting phone call today, long story short I’ve been off work for over a year due to rheumatoid arthritis, fortunately thanks to our union EBA my income is protected through insurance cover ( not so fortunate is not to have any immune system due to heavy medication during a pandemic) anyway my case manager from the insurance company rang to check on my welfare today, he’s located in Sydney and during our conversation he admitted that even though he was a lifelong Liberal voter he had nothing but complete contempt for both Morrison and Perrotet due to the complete cluster$&@? Response to the pandemic along with the lies and general corruption. I was some what surprised as the rant was unsolicited, and out of the blue and he’s normally very gentle and quiet and in previous conversations we’ve never discussed politics. I think Morrison is in big trouble.

  47. lizzie

    Morrison blaming the testing crisis on Omicron. Moving on …

    ———

    That’s hilarious…… they didn’t get vaccines in time because of the virus.

    They didn’t get the tests in time because of the virus.

    And the let-it-rip freedumb policy didn’t work because of the virus.

    If only we didn’t have a virus!!

  48. Morrison blaming the testing crisis on Omicron. Moving on …

    His life would be so much easier if only this worldwide epidemic would just fuck off and stop exposing his laziness and incompetence.

  49. Zerlo says:
    Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 8:40 pm
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/free-rapid-antigen-tests-for-four-million-eligible-australians-but-others-pay-20220105-p59m3x.html

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/absolutely-price-gouging-australian-rapid-test-distributor-slams-retail-price-rises-20220105-p59m0r.html

    That F asshole should be tried for murder.
    _______________________________
    Have you given thought to staging a citizen’s arrest?

  50. Late Riser @ #3387 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 8:19 pm

    Summarising 730’s covid report, Australia’s health system isn’t coping. It may be too soon to call it triage, but the focus is definitely on who gets to be at the front of the treatment queue, and who doesn’t.

    The PM just said the situation is “well, well, well within the capacity of the hospital system”

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