New year news: Gilmore, Pearce, Mayo

The Liberals get candidates sorted in two key seats, while a poll suggests Rebekha Sharkie has little to fear in Mayo.

First up, please note two other important posts above and below this one: the former asking for money, the latter offering an opportunity for on-topic discussion about the Senate election to mark the happy occasion of the publication of my new Senate election guide, complementing the already published seat-by-seat guide to the House.

With that out of the way, three new items of federal election news to ring in the new year:

• State MP Andrew Constance is now effectively confirmed as the Liberal candidate for the key seat of Gilmore on the New South Wales South Coast, which forms a major part of the government’s re-election strategy given its hope that Constance can recover a seat that was lost in 2019. His main rival, Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, withdrew from the race last week, saying he had formed the view that Constance was best placed to win, a view that was backed by a Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald based on party polling. Others to withdraw over the past fortnight were Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne, who said he was concerned he would face Section 44 issues due to his business dealings with the government.

• The Liberal candidate to succeed Christian Porter in the northern Perth seat of Pearce is Linda Aitken, a nurse and Wanneroo councillor who has run unsuccessfully three times for the state seat of Butler. Peter Law of The West Australian reports Aitken won a ballot of local party members ahead of Miquela Riley, a former navy officer who ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Fremantle in March, by 31 votes to 23. Aitken is a member of the Victory Life Church, founded by tennis champion and noted social conservative Margaret Court. Riley had conservative credentials of her own, with earlier reports suggesting she had support from The Clan, the factional group that achieved notoriety after an extensive WhatsApp discussion between its principals was leaked to the media.

• Elizabeth Henson of The Advertiser reports a uComms phone poll of 828 respondents for the Australia Institute suggested Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie to be headed for another comfortable win in her Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo, with a 58.5-41.5 lead over the Liberals on two-party preferred, compared with her 55.1-44.9 winning margin over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in 2019. The primary vote figures quoted are 30.9% for Sharkie, 30.8% for the Liberals, 13.3% for Labor, 7.7% for the Greens, 6.5% for One Nation, 3.3% for the United Australia Party and 3.0% for independents, with the spare 4.5% presumably being undecided. As reported on the Australia Institute website, the poll also found overwhelming support for an integrity commission and truth in political advertising laws.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,489 comments on “New year news: Gilmore, Pearce, Mayo”

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  3. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, confused Washington state and Western Australia to claim that Democrats had banned dancing, in a tweet he has since deleted

    Cruz shared a tweet from conspiracy theorist Paul Joseph Watson that included a screenshot of a Facebook comment in which the government of Western Australia (known by the abbreviation WA, as is the U.S. state in the Pacific Northwest) advised a woman that “dancing is strictly not permitted” on New Year’s Eve under the region’s strict COVID rules.

    Cruz apparently mistook “WA Government” to mean Washington state and falsely suggested that its leaders had banned dancing.

    “Blue-state Dems are power-drunk authoritarian kill-joys,” he wrote before taking down the tweet. “Washington State: NO DANCING ALLOWED!!! Any rational & free citizen: Piss off.”

  4. Posted on previous thread.

    AngoraFish says:
    Friday, December 31, 2021 at 1:13 am……

    If a more deadly strain did emerge getting omicron beforehand would only be an advantage. Experience, and natural selection, however, suggests that diseases tend to become milder over time, not more lethal. A virus doesn’t survive and replicate if it is regularly killing its hosts.

    If there is a gap between 1 person getting infected, then infecting say 4 other people before the first person becomes ill / very ill / dying it makes no difference to survival rate of virus in short term… while there are still available hosts…
    That is why the Liar & the Undertaker have fucked up… they have been dead lucky this strain appears more benign

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Federal and state governments’ decision to fully back PCR tests instead of Rapid Antigen Tests to detect COVID-19 infections in the early stages of the pandemic forced local manufacturers to sell their products overseas, leaving Australia now scrambling to secure changing supply.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/gold-standard-pcr-push-leaves-a-gaping-hole-in-rapid-test-supply-20211229-p59knx.html
    Scott Morrison says his decision not to make tests free for most was a response to industry concerns, but peak bodies say they did not lobby government. Caught lying yet again?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/31/covid-rapid-antigen-tests-suppliers-deny-pressing-pm-to-abandon-commitment-to-provide-free-kits
    Stephen Duckett says we have a complete collapse of leadership, with Australia’s recent Covid response amounting to world-class bungling.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/to-safely-live-with-covid-australian-leaders-must-actually-work-cooperatively
    Madonna King says that Australia’s pandemic planning on the run leaves so many questions, too few answers.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/12/30/madonna-king-pandemic-planning/
    Mary Ward tells us what to do if we get Covid.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/what-to-do-if-you-have-covid-19-20211230-p59kts.html
    Long Covid is the elephant in the room, but it seems invisible to Australian politicians, warns Professor Adrian Esterman.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/long-covid-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-but-it-seems-invisible-to-our-politicians
    This pathologist anonymously tells us about lie in a covid testing laboratory. The article ends with, “If you are sick or the public health people tell you so, get a PCR. If you are heading on holidays, or worried about gatherings, do an RAT yourself. If you can find, or afford, one.” Hardly encouraging.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-work-at-a-covid-testing-lab-please-think-before-joining-that-pcr-traffic-jam-20211230-p59kv3.html
    And this anonymous doctor says that, with New Year’s Eve upon us, Perrottet must take stronger measures. The doctor describes the effects on the collapsing health system and urges voters to get in touch with their MPs to express their concerns.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/with-new-year-s-eve-upon-us-perrottet-must-take-stronger-measures-20211230-p59kue.html
    Australia’s independent expert group OzSage has savaged the “let it rip” Covid-19 strategy in New South Wales and elsewhere, saying it will condemn some people to death, particularly the more vulnerable.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/30/ozsage-experts-warn-let-it-rip-covid-strategy-will-condemn-vulnerable-australians-to-death
    Half a million Australians have called for a Royal Commission into Rupert Murdoch’s abuse of power and Australia’s media concentration. But are News Corp thuggery and media diversity really the main game? Michael West investigates a mollycoddled media.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/rupert-murdoch-media-inquiry-misses-the-real-bogeys/
    The AIMN’s Rossleigh has a real dig at Morisson’s “personal responsibility” mantra, wondering what he himself takes personal responsibility for.
    https://theaimn.com/pm-tells-us-that-hes-not-responsible-for-more-than-a-handful-of-rats/
    An Adelaide southern suburbs aged care home is battling a serious Covid outbreak and its operator says there are cases at three of its other homes too.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/coronavirus/16-residents-six-staff-have-covid-at-ach-groups-perry-park-nursing-home-at-port-noarlunga/news-story/ddd4b8a9c9ea9cbf6625f7b85f1e8368
    The Canberra Times’ editorial begins with, “Australians have every reason to feel let down by federal, state and territory leaders this week. At a time when the risk of catching COVID-19 has never been greater, testing and contact tracing systems are buckling under the strain and there are fears the health system will not be able to cope with rising hospitalisations many federal ministers, premiers and chief ministers have been missing in action.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7565868/a-lack-of-leadership-at-a-time-of-crisis/?cs=14258
    Victorians will no longer be required to get a test if they are exposed to COVID-19 at places such as cafes, schools, and supermarkets.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/covid-tests-scrapped-for-contacts-at-school-work-20211230-p59kt0.html
    It’s an Australian summer of self-imposed lockdown. Bring on the 2022 election, says Paul Daley.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/31/its-an-australian-summer-of-self-imposed-lockdown-bring-on-the-2022-election
    Queensland landholders are clearing the equivalent of about 1,000 MCGs a day, including endangered ecological regions, according to state government data that raises new doubts about the accuracy of Australia’s carbon emissions claims, writes Peter Hannam.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/31/carbon-bomb-queensland-reveals-big-jump-in-land-clearing
    Rob Harris tells us how Clive Palmer is wooing a changing demographic – those disaffected and as “mad as hell”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/disaffected-and-mad-as-hell-palmer-wooing-a-changing-demographic-20211229-p59kn9.html
    Mary Ward reports that health practitioners treating regional cancer and mental health patients have expressed concern about changes to Medicare rebates for some telehealth services, saying patients will be forced to pay higher prices, travel hundreds of kilometres or lose out on consults.
    https://www.theage.com.au/healthcare/medicare-changes-to-hit-regional-cancer-mental-health-patients-20211229-p59kmp.html
    The aged-care royal commission will go down as an expensive waste of time unless both sides of politics start to grapple with how they will finance the improved standards of care it recommended, a peak seniors group has warned.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/agedcare-funding-a-crucial-election-issue/news-story/b01835a47a7c40a7ef0156ea32572f90
    In quite a disturbing contribution, Michael Harriot tells us that ‘patriots’ are undermining American democracy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/30/patriots-are-undermining-american-democracy
    A 2009 settlement agreement between the late American financier Jeffrey Epstein and Virginia Giuffre, which bears directly on Giuffre’s civil lawsuit accusing Britain’s Prince Andrew of sexual abuse, will be made public early next week.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/judges-to-unseal-epstein-papers-ahead-of-prince-andrew-s-case-20211230-p59ku1.html
    Now that the British former socialite Ghislaine Maxwell has been convicted in her sex-trafficking trial, speculation is growing that she may try to cut a deal and become a government witness in any broader investigation into the elite social circle of her ex-boyfriend Jeffrey Epstein.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/30/ghislaine-maxwell-sentence-deal-speculation-jeffrey-epstein

    Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox

    Peter Broelman


    Mark Knight

    Simon Letch

    Andrew Dyson

    Leak

  6. The Teal candidate in Wentworth has some big local money behind her.. and Scovid is already sizing up the likely Teals he can purloin.

    Aaron Patrick
    Senior correspondent
    Nov 26, 2021 – 11.33am

    From their $20 million house on a battle-axe block bought with the proceeds of short-selling, high-frequency trading and speculative stocks, Daniel and Lyndell Droga are plotting an attack on the Morrison government for being too right-wing.

    The art-collecting couple, who live on Wallaroy Road, Woollahra, are co-leaders of Wentworth Independents, a group of successful Sydney eastern suburbs residents who have recruited one of their community’s stars, Allegra Spender, to stand against Liberal MP Dave Sharma at the next federal election.

    Lyndell Droga is the organisation’s spokeswoman. She is credited with convincing Spender to stand in a seat that suddenly looks vulnerable.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has privately acknowledged that no party may emerge with a majority after the election, which is due by May 21, 2022, and has already begun contingency planning for a hung parliament, according to a person familiar with his thinking.

    Morrison’s planning includes assessing which of the seven independents and minor-party MPs in the House of Representatives might agree to support a minority Coalition government, the source said.
    “He’s already decided who he could work with and who’s a write-off,” said a party member who has discussed the election with Morrison.

    Spender’s Wentworth campaign will be launched on Saturday. The Liberals won the seat, which extends from Watsons Bay to Randwick Racecourse, by 1.3 per cent at the last election against another independent, doctor Kerryn Phelps.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-short-seller-and-his-wife-going-after-morrison-20211123-p59bgj

  8. Well, there goes Player One’s ‘Vote 1 Independent’, knocked into the Liberal cocked hat where it belongs. The AFR is reporting:

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has privately acknowledged that no party may emerge with a majority after the election, which is due by May 21, 2022, and has already begun contingency planning for a hung parliament, according to a person familiar with his thinking.

    Morrison’s planning includes assessing which of the seven independents and minor-party MPs in the House of Representatives might agree to support a minority Coalition government, the source said.
    “He’s already decided who he could work with and who’s a write-off,” said a party member who has discussed the election with Morrison.

    So, Vote 1 Independent and you get Morrison. 😐

  9. SCOMOs record on pandemic response has been pathetic.. too late on everything.. he has had 4 months+ to get RAT policy in place… he will be late for his own funeral.. coming at next election. Not soon enough.

  10. Did I miss Morrison’s warnings about continuing precautions like wearing masks indoors, social distancing and washing hands, or don’t they count any more?

  11. C@t

    “He’s already decided who he could work with and who’s a write-off,” said a party member who has discussed the election with Morrison.

    So he plans for the most important thing – to him.

  12. Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    6m
    I wish our prime minister was the can-do, dynamic leader portrayed in The Australian rather than the Scott-the-Unready, responsibility dodger we have.

  13. This reliance on RAT tests by Scovid to paper over the collapse of the pathology sector, and frustrated people queuing up for the Gold Standard, faces some headwinds. There is a global shortage for one

    in the UK..

    ‘The Welsh government has come to the aid of Westminster by lending England 4m lateral flow tests, as ministers scramble to secure supplies from around the world.

    There has been a surge in demand for Covid tests as people try to comply with advice to limit the spread of the Omicron variant by ensuring they do not have the virus before socialising.

    But by 9am on Thursday, home delivery slots for lateral flow tests were unavailable on the gov.uk website. Pharmacies have also complained about patchy supplies of lateral flow kits.

    The Welsh government has agreed to loan four million more tests to the NHS in England, bringing the total the country has given England to a total of 10 million.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/30/covid-news-live-who-warns-of-trade-off-as-countries-ease-isolation-and-testing-rules

    And the USA..

    But as we approach the end of 2021, at-home COVID tests can still be difficult to find in the U.S. Throughout the fall, home tests were frequently out of stock at pharmacies and online retailers. And now, with holiday travel plans and the emergence of the Omicron variant straining America’s COVID testing capabilities in general, CVS, Walgreens, and Walmart have limited the number of home tests that can be purchased online, and in some areas pharmacies are jacking up prices. This week President Biden announced that the government will purchase 500 million at-home rapid tests and ship them out for free to anyone who requests one – but the program won’t start until next month.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/at-home-covid-tests-accuracy-supply-issues.html

  14. C@tmomma 7:25 am
    What Morrison ‘thinks’ counts for 1/10th of fuck all. Your Liberal equivalents will be saying “So, Vote 1 Independent and you get Albanese”.

  16. If Independent were serious about Federal ICAC they would not bother to talk to the corrupt and foreign media tycoon owned Lib/nats

  17. Given the focus of the concern of the prime minister of Australia over people being “locked up” and the impact on the economy including the delivery of the economy the question is:-

    Even with the revised quarantine laws, we currently have over 20,000 Australians being confirmed as infected – so 140,000 a week

    That number increasing as it is, particularly in NSW but also SA, Queensland and Victoria

    So where will the current 20,000 a day go to?

    Are other Nations the education?

    Then, also isolating are those an infected person has spent 4 hours in the company of

    So a multiplier at least

    IF the concern is the number of people being removed from the economy, the figures and the trajectory as we currently see, then surely the strategy should be to address the spread of the virus from human being to human being?

    Instead of changing a definition – because this mutation is not Delta

    And that is before you get to vaccination, the 3rd dose and rapid tests able to be attended at home for indicative purposes

    All “botched”

    By description of the independent Grattan Institute

    And now we have the manufacturers of the rapid tests saying they have not spoken to the pm (after being quoted by the pm apparently)

    The sheer weight of contradiction with the pm must be weighing somewhere, surely

    As Hewson said “a marketeer out of his depth”

  19. Morrison and cronies should be hammered for once again showing incompetence on the booster rollout lack of rapid antigen tests, and reversing the states decisions in giving free rapid antigen test

  20. Morrison is more concerned that the economy which went backwards in September quarter won’t be much better in the December quarter.

    He doesn’t have a lot of wriggle room if any and he knows it.

  21. The description of Morrison by Malcolm Farr as an unready responsibility dodger,is a good one.

    And Boerwar’s recent description of Morrison as the stalker of the nation is good too.

  22. Evidence of more privatising of medicare
    There have been points people have made between Abbott trying to charge a medicare co payment to visit doctors, to Morrison charging for rapid antigen test

  24. Pharmacies are ordering RATS by the ton load.
    Morrison is concerned for these friends at the retail end of the chain, who have an opportunity to make even more money.

    Added bonus is that govt does not have to shell out the cash themselves. Win win.

  25. poroti @ #14 Friday, December 31st, 2021 – 7:52 am

    C@tmomma 7:25 am
    What Morrison ‘thinks’ counts for 1/10th of fuck all. Your Liberal equivalents will be saying “So, Vote 1 Independent and you get Albanese”.

    Well, to use your ‘logic’, you would have to wonder why anyone would vote for an Independent to forestall an Albanese Labor government? When they could just Vote 1 Liberal.

  26. One good thing may come out of Morrison hogging the limelight over changes apparently agreed by the national cabinet.

    He now owns the outcome of redefining “close contact”, the general confusion about what people have to do if they feel unwell, the difficulty of finding and paying for RATs and people’s hesitancy to go out and spend money in businesses.

    He has sown the wind. May he reap the whirlwind.

  27. C@tmomma at 8:18 am
    That is not my ‘logic’ it is the ‘logic’ of partisans. Just as you say a vote for an Independent is a vote for Morrison a Liberal cheerleader will say a vote for an independent is a vote for Albanese. All just SOP.

  28. Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup. Like others I can barely comprehend what out Prime Sociopath hopes to gain from first letting covid rip through Australia, gasslighting the States that were trying to stay safe, then blaming the States when it turns to custard! It is not even a believable lie.

    With covid out of control in Adelaide and my third (booster) not due for a few weeks, I am being quite careful how much I go out at present. I am sure I am not alone. So much for “opening up” being good for business.

  29. Hi Socrates. We also will not get our booster for another 4 weeks and are being quite judicious with respect to where we go for shopping, etc.

  30. poroti @ #27 Friday, December 31st, 2021 – 8:24 am

    C@tmomma at 8:18 am
    That is not my ‘logic’ it is the ‘logic’ of partisans. Just as you say a vote for an Independent is a vote for Morrison a Liberal cheerleader will say a vote for an independent is a vote for Albanese. All just SOP.

    I get that but the point I was making was that the Teals have as their point of difference from the Liberals that, if you vote for them you won’t be voting for the Liberal Party. So, if Morrison has already identified Teals that he can ‘work with’ to shoehorn himself back into power, what’s the point of them then? They may as well be Liberals. Or, they ARE Liberals in sheep’s clothing. Kind of defeating the whole point of them.

    It doesn’t really matter if you’re a Labor partisan or not because the Teals are there, allegedly, to peel votes off the Liberals, not Labor.

  32. Is the South Australia Liberal government worried about the upcoming state election

    They are not listening to Morrison


    Dr Sophie Pointer SyringeSyringeAZ
    @SophiePointer
    South Australian CHO on radio right now saying SA’s close contact definition and exposure site definitions have not changed. It’s 15 minutes exposure NOT 4 hours.

  35. The Traditional Owner view of the OPH fire.. Joe Williams is a former NRL player and appeared in a music video with Anthony Mundine – now a motivational speaker and Aboriginal activist..

  36. I am thinking that Morrison’s revised election strategy is to go late after letting Omicron rip through Australia (everyone needs to play – including WA) and say don’t look in the rear vision mirror. Any hospitalisation issues are State problems of course.

    Should have gone in November.

  37. It is a complete coincidence that on the same day we discover Chemist Warehouse is a major LNP donor we also discover that Scomo has agreed not to distribute RATs for free.

  39. This from Journo of channel 7 and 3aw fame.
    When oh when are these thick heads going to understand, we are dealing with a frickin global pandemic..

    ——

    Nick McCallum

    Peak hour train into the city ..very very lonely. People wary of going out because of COVID ? People still concerned about public transport ? People taking a long, long weekend over New Year? It’s just devastating for those running businesses trying to survive in the CBD. https://t.co/dDngry8My8

  40. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, December 31, 2021 at 7:25 am
    Well, there goes Player One’s ‘Vote 1 Independent’, knocked into the Liberal cocked hat where it belongs. The AFR is reporting:
    ”

    C@tmomma
    We know that P1 was critical of current ALP MP in Gilmore and the incompetence of current LNP government. So P1 invented this schtick of vote 1 Independent. As per above WB report every other contender other than Constance has withdrawn. Since Constance is not technically imposed on Gilmore, P1 can vote for some no name Independent 1 and preference Constance over ALP MP with an argument that Constance wasn’t imposed from Top like KK.
    You have to give it to Libs they have perfected the art of changing leaders mid-stream with out causing public anger and imposing candidates without making it appear so to give fig leaf for people like P1.

  41. So, if Morrison has already identified Teals that he can ‘work with’ to shoehorn himself back into power, what’s the point of them then? They may as well be Liberals. Or, they ARE Liberals in sheep’s clothing. Kind of defeating the whole point of them.

    I’m not sure what you see as ‘the whole point of them’, but IMO they exist to exert pressure on the Liberals to shift on the issues they are pushing – climate change, integrity in government, treatment of women. If they can win seats or at least be a significant threat in seats then they have leverage. Winning seats more so, of course. “Work with” implies a quid pro quo – doing deals – Morrison’s currency, presumably, is to shift on some of the core demands in return for support. That is the point of the Teals in my opinion, and as far as it goes it’s a good point. Shifting the dial on where the LNP position themselves is good for everyone.

    No, it doesn’t really directly help the ALP or what passes for an ALP agenda. That doesn’t make the Teals pointless.

  42. The New Daily 03/08/2021
    Victorian authorities are pushing back against growing calls for rapid antigen testing, insisting it has little value as the state’s COVID-19 outbreak dies down.

    The events sector and state opposition are spruiking rapid tests as a tool to speed up the state’s lockdown recovery and further mitigate the risk posed by the Delta variant.

    But chief health officer Brett Sutton has questioned the usefulness of the tests when the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method is more accurate and currently produces results within 24 hours, 99 per cent of the time.
    _____________________
    My God, Michael O’Brien who would have thought.
    Sutton’s comments have not aged very well. I bet he regrets them now.

  48. Taylormade

    Are you deliberately being idiotic or it just comes naturally?

    You do realise that Victoria actually ordered RAT tests to distribute free to the public.

  50. Just when we need a bit of La Nina, Sydney is forecast to have perfect Summer weather tonight and for the weekend.

    NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet said during a press conference on Thursday morning that people should “head out and enjoy New Year’s”.

    Not only incompetent but criminally negligent.

    EDIT: over 21,000 cases in NSW, six deaths, 763 in hospital, 14% test positivity rate.

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