First up, please note two other important posts above and below this one: the former asking for money, the latter offering an opportunity for on-topic discussion about the Senate election to mark the happy occasion of the publication of my new Senate election guide, complementing the already published seat-by-seat guide to the House.
With that out of the way, three new items of federal election news to ring in the new year:
• State MP Andrew Constance is now effectively confirmed as the Liberal candidate for the key seat of Gilmore on the New South Wales South Coast, which forms a major part of the government’s re-election strategy given its hope that Constance can recover a seat that was lost in 2019. His main rival, Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, withdrew from the race last week, saying he had formed the view that Constance was best placed to win, a view that was backed by a Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald based on party polling. Others to withdraw over the past fortnight were Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne, who said he was concerned he would face Section 44 issues due to his business dealings with the government.
• The Liberal candidate to succeed Christian Porter in the northern Perth seat of Pearce is Linda Aitken, a nurse and Wanneroo councillor who has run unsuccessfully three times for the state seat of Butler. Peter Law of The West Australian reports Aitken won a ballot of local party members ahead of Miquela Riley, a former navy officer who ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Fremantle in March, by 31 votes to 23. Aitken is a member of the Victory Life Church, founded by tennis champion and noted social conservative Margaret Court. Riley had conservative credentials of her own, with earlier reports suggesting she had support from The Clan, the factional group that achieved notoriety after an extensive WhatsApp discussion between its principals was leaked to the media.
• Elizabeth Henson of The Advertiser reports a uComms phone poll of 828 respondents for the Australia Institute suggested Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie to be headed for another comfortable win in her Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo, with a 58.5-41.5 lead over the Liberals on two-party preferred, compared with her 55.1-44.9 winning margin over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in 2019. The primary vote figures quoted are 30.9% for Sharkie, 30.8% for the Liberals, 13.3% for Labor, 7.7% for the Greens, 6.5% for One Nation, 3.3% for the United Australia Party and 3.0% for independents, with the spare 4.5% presumably being undecided. As reported on the Australia Institute website, the poll also found overwhelming support for an integrity commission and truth in political advertising laws.
3,489 comments on “New year news: Gilmore, Pearce, Mayo”
Interesting report from the US.
Simon Katich @ #3400 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 8:13 pm
Where’s that sarcasm font when you need it?
The new photographer SfM has hired should be fired…every photo I’ve seen of him lately has his mouth open, a sure indication that he’s lying!
Trying to get through the presser now. F me that man can talk.
And talk… and talk.
I am well, well, well outside my tolerance for his talking.
The Daily Rupert calling out the lie..
Simon Katich @ #3404 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 8:22 pm
If you can’t stand that man, Barty just won the second set. Good tennis. Third set is underway.
Red Clyde writes:
I’m seeing exactly this, more and more. There’s a lot of in-house hate out there for Morrison and Perrotet.
Once the public realises how the Omicron v. Delta bait and switch has fucked us good and proper, expect torches and pitchforks in the streets.
And here is the inveterate Liar in full flight
Why not just tell the truth? He could have said:
“Dude, I’m the Prime Minister. I don’t buy anything myself – I have a department, security detail, and a platoon of gofers to do that for me”.
But, no. The knee jerk reaction is to lie.
Ah, but is it a lie if you believe it yourself? A really good liar first lies to himself. (That’s not what I think, but it is what I think he thinks.)
Boasting thar the government didn’t need to tell him what to do. How childish.
This is the man who sets the rules.
“But, no. The knee jerk reaction is to lie.”
Frankly, that seems to be the main take away from today’s National cabinet meeting, apart from Slomo openly raising the white flag as regards Covid. Why does he inflict these on everybody and himself??
FFS, they are leading the most massive omni-shambles in living memory.
The PM just said the situation is “well, well, well within the capacity of the hospital system”
That bad eh?
Many takeaways from today’s train wreck Scomotion…
But, no. The knee jerk reaction is to lie.
But he lies like a 3 or 4 year old, i.e. he is unaware that an adult can easily check up and discovers he’s making up a silly story.
But this man is not 3 or 4 years old.
This man has a deep psychological condition.
This man is the best of the Liberal Party.
We heard Macron had said he wanted to ‘piss off’ the unvaccinated but I wondered what he actually said in French. The word he used was ’emmerder’. Yes it does have something to do with merde.
No wonder some in France whinged at him for using such “unPresidential’ language 🙂
Morrison forgets the golden rule:
I can’t watch Morrison. The patronising tone. The sly superior smiles. I have to leave the room if he comes on the TV. It’s visceral. I lack the fortitude. So thank you for your reports. Curiosity impels me to ask, though. Has he gone Churchillian yet, evoking national pride?
In Scotty’s church ‘Lying for Jesus’ is all good. A guy who thinks the sky fairy personally intervened to make SFM the PM would have no problem telling himself that all lies he tells as PM under that banner are all good. Anything that helps the guy who god chose has to be ‘good’ eh ?
This man has a deep psychological condition. This man is the best of the Liberal Party.
Yeah. A lot of us worked that out 3 years ago. (Not having a dig at you. Some things need to be said again and again.) I think at the time, consensus here was that he showed signs of sociopathy. Alas, it helped us not.
Thank you poroti for an appropriate word.
emmerder. (transitive, vulgar) To bug, bother, irritate “the shit out of”
Well that’s a revelation that I find it hard to believe but it explains a lot. Remember how Scotty said he had never told a lie?
FUDGING THE FIGURES: THE SERPENT IN THE BOX OF CHOCOLATES
Yesterday I raised concerns that the Prime Minister might put pressure on States and Territories to stop making public positive Corona virus cases, either as an attempt to alleviate the public panic about the rising numbers of cases or as a self preserving stunt to ger Corona virus off the front pages of media outlets, at least until the supply of RAT is no longer a problem (in one or two months time) thus avoiding being exposed for failing to foresee a problem and get ahead of the game.
Today the Prime Minister went one better. He found a way to ‘fudge the figures’ and blind side the community on the reality of what we are experiencing, hidden between positive messages about free RAT provisions, for some at least. The serpent in this free box of chocolates is here _
“ In a major change to coronavirus testing, people who receive positive rapid antigen results will no longer have to confirm their diagnosis with a PCR test. Instead, Mr Morrison urged people to report positive results to their doctor.”
That’s right. The PM “encourages” us to report our positive RAT test to our doctor. There is no mandatory obligation to do so.
This means, in effect, the reported PCR test results will no longer reflect the true number of positive cases occurring across Australia. We will simply no longer know what the real numbers are anymore unless the State and Territories find a different way to monitor RAT results and choose to make them public.
“ States and territories are working out how to track positive rapid antigen results as the country moves further away from PCR testing to monitor coronavirus cases”.
Bottom Line : Unless States and Territories choose to (a) reject the Federal Government’s attempt to fudge the numbers and hide the reality and (b) find a way to collect and publish positive RAT results we the punters will be ‘denied access’ to the truth about what is happening in our country regarding corona virus. Charming.
Re Andrew_Earlwood at 6.16 pm, jt1983 at 6.19 pm and zoomster at 6.58 pm
On independents, compare seats of Hughes and Goldstein. The latter has a Lib member, however bad. His primary in 2019 was 52.6%. Labor was second on 28%, the Greens half that and nobody else above 2%. Earlwood is right in the obvious sense that, because of events once can’t assume the Lib member has a margin of about 50% over any independent. The incumbent seems mightily worried he will lose.
Now look at Hughes. The former Lib member Craig Kelly got a 53.1% primary in 2019. Labor got 30.4%, the Greens 7% and four minors (including Palmer) not much more than 2% each. The big difference will be in the scale of the drop of the Lib primary vote. Wilson is in trouble in Goldstein only if he loses about 10% on primaries and Labor also loses almost 10%. That would enable Zoe Daniel to get to second and beat Wilson on preferences. The Libs should be in bigger trouble in Hughes because the drop in their primary vote will probably be much larger there.
Logically, the existence of two independents is no greater hurdle to a sitting Lib member losing than the existence of one independent and a Labor vote that is not substantially reduced. It depends on the scale of the drop in the Lib primary and the spread of the votes between the independents and Labor. The drop in the Lib primary in Hughes is likely to be much bigger than in Goldstein, because Kelly has been notoriously rogue for over 2 years. A drop in the Lib primary in Hughes to around 30% or less is conceivable. One independent, Linda Seymour, seems to have more community support than the other, Georgia Steele. One will probably get a much stronger vote than the other, and could thus beat Labor into second place. It’s conceivable that the stronger independent could come first on primaries, because of support from many former Liberal voters disgusted by the antics of ProMo’s man, Kelly.
The only hope for the Libs in Hughes is inertia, so it would be a risky move for Melanie Gibbons to try to get elected there. Meanwhile, the stronger independent has a clear run, and an election held in May will generally help independents get better organised in seats such as Goldstein and Hughes.
The situation here in Monaro is different. Barilaro is not retiring as a strong member, but rather in some sort of disgrace, albeit under the carpet, or rug, or somewhere else. So his personal vote could evaporate. In this sense the 11.6% margin is an illusion. But he was careful before resigning to line up the mayor’s wife as a replacement candidate. That’s already three months ago. Don’t underestimate the capacity of many voters to switch from Barilaro to Nichole Overall because of the former mayor’s name (we are, after all, talking about Nationals voters). Boerwar said that she should be a shoe-in.
The problem, which Earlwood is well aware of, is that Labor may have already missed the electoral opportunity that Monaro might have presented, because of its hapless refusal to contest early on. Why did Minns do that? Ironically, partly because he got in by misperceptions about a by-election. He has already depressed the Labor vote in Monaro (relative to Bega) by Labor’s sluggishness hitherto. In the end, that factor may be overcome by a growing revulsion against the current NSW government. After all, one of Barilaro’s most egregious remarks was to claim that Perrottet was ready to govern.
In the next couple of weeks maybe 1-2 million Australians will catch Covid, a mix of Delta (mortality rate ~ 0.8%) and Omicron (mortality rate maybe ~ 0.2% – we don’t know). The proportions of the two are not being disclosed, quite possibly because no one has a clue. Some time in the second half of January, the numbers will plateau and start to drop, possibly quite quickly. But on the way down, hundreds of thousands more (or a million or more) will be infected.
Let’s be conservative and say it’s two million all up. Maybe about 50,000 to 100,000 will require hospitalisation over the next couple of months. How many will be able to be admitted is another question. About 4,000 to 10,000 will die. An unknown number will incur long term health impacts or incapacity.
A monumental policy failure, the result of massive incompetence and negligence on the part of the Federal and NSW Governments. .
Late Riser at 9:44 pm
Believing the following it is natural to be like that.
He has a ticket on the Rapture train and virtually all the peasants he is smirking upon do not.
Morrison does not lie reflexively.
His lying is a deliberate strategy: lie about everything and they’ll never know what you really want to keep secret.
Bushfire Bill @ #3426 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 9:03 pm
Talent is what you’re born with. Skill is what you do with it. But either way, what a trustworthy guy.
Oh my god get over it, the sky is not falling. Everything happening here is happening in most OECD countries with many in a worse position than Australia. If your double vaccinated and have or are getting your booster you are fine. FFS take a big breath, your not going to die…well not from Covid.
Re Sprocket 7.55pm and ratsak 8.41 pm
No announcement evident of by-elections on the NSW Electoral Commission website. See:
One would think that the Commissioner might be getting advice (e.g. from Michael Maley et. al.) on the prudence of holding by-elections as early as 12 Feb. According to Billington’s optimistic graph, there will still be thousands of new cases a day then. Due to ProMo’s reckless accelerant added to the Perrottet disaster, we will never know. The Covid figures make polling look precise by comparison.
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 6:46 pm
Harris was given 16 chances to get a score before the Boxing Day test.
Compare that with Khawaja: after scoring his eight test hundred, he was dropped after only another 6 innings (which included a 40 and 36). This is a reoccurring theme of Khawaja’s career: for some reason he ‘takes one for the team’ in circumstances where other players on equally shaky ground as to form get an extended run.
Yes the Selectors have some explaining to do.
I’m a great supporter of Usman. He and my great-niece, who plays for Queensland Fire in the WNCL and the Brisbane Heat in the WBBL, both came out of the Penrith Cricket Club.
They both now play their club cricket with the Valley District Cricket Club in Brisbane.
I was chuffed to look at Valley’s “Hall of Fame” batting performance table this season and see my great-niece in 5th position with a 118 not out, just ahead of Usman in 7th with a 117 not out.
Dog’s Brunch @ #3405 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 9:22 pm
It’s so he can be seen to be catching flies, like a True Blue Aussie. All part of the marketing exercise. 😐
Steelydan @ #3428 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 10:11 pm
This message is authorised and sponsored by Sky Nooz. Parts sold seperately.
Australia has better vaccination rates than most countries in the world, booster shots are available. We are fortunate to also have one of the lowest death rates in the world. Our ICU and on ventilator rates are still low.
Morrison will be our PM until at least May that is over 4 months away you mob are more likely to worry yourself into a heart attack than even get Covid.
The sad think is you love the high numbers as you believe it helps you politically.
Leaders of all political persuasions in other countries have done no better and most worse than Australia.
Steelydan @ #3433 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 10:23 pm
Sky Noos: In other development’s funeral parlours are offering a 10% discount for people whose loved ones have died of corona virus (235 in December 2021). To qualify for this discount, however, you must be on a Government pension, an aged care resident , a person with disabilities or Indigenous. Details can be obtained at the Australian Liberal Party website, Chemist Warehouse or Harvey Norman.
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 11:26 am
“I wonder if Morrison is thinking he should have just gone on holiday in Hawaii.
He’d have been better of politically and the government would have functioned less incompetently if he had.”
I seldom venture on PB these days. Great to see you back with your insightful succinct comments.
Fuck off Steely. There were 64,744 new cases today that we know about.
A month ago it was 1,284.
On “Freedom Day” it was 2,814.
The Grand Experiment that Morrison and Perrotet have carried out with the health and lives of the Australian people has been a miserable, deadly failure.
It’s not just whether any particular person will get Covid, although that’s part of it, including the as yet unknown legacy of Long Covid.
It what happens to our health system: to patients who need eye operations, cancer treatments, heart surgery, radiotherapy, who fall and break a leg or an arm, who have chronic diseases require hospitalization, or who are involved in traffic or workplace accidents.
Then there are the nurses and doctors, the administrators, cleaners and wardsmen who are gradually wearing down to the bone, mentally and physically.
The people who need to see a GP will find it nearly impossible to do so.
Businesses will go broke. Staff will not earn the money they need to feed themselves and their families. Society grinds to a halt while its leaders go off on some ideological wank centred around “getting government out of our lives”.
And YOU put it down to some wussy, “under the doona”, Nervous Nellie syndrome, a matter of lacking some kind of mythical true grit that Australians alone are supposed to possess.
Just fuck off. This is serious. Come back when you can offer a serious contribution.
He should have gone in November. Might have lost but you wouldn’t have had to order a phone box for party meetings.
in 1999 just before 2000 I went down to the local hardware store and saw 7 old ladies none looked below 85. They were lined up for masks as the chemist had run out, a couple were after water containers. I believed that at that age I would have become more accepting that I was close to shuffling of this mortal coil but it looks like most of us are not. So easy to get the mob all worked up. I still can’t get over one in three NSW phone calls to 000 were from people who were not sick just had Covid, that is the type of mentality we are dealing with.
from people who were not sick just had Covid
You are making less and less sense.
Are you Paul Murray?
Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 10:41 pm
Putting partisan politics aside, none of what you said makes any sense. Have fun in your Sky News universe, I prefer the real world.
steve davis @ #3443 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 10:51 pm
He’s not that good at what he’s trying to do.
“ The problem, which Earlwood is well aware of, is that Labor may have already missed the electoral opportunity that Monaro might have presented, because of its hapless refusal to contest early on. Why did Minns do that?”
Even though it is now at the heal of the hunt, I find it hard to believe that a former Mayor’s wife – not the mayor himself – would have such heft to be the unbackable favourite in what is – if one excludes the 2019 Bruz porkathon bubble – a knife’s edge margin seat. Her personal profile appears to be limited to being a local historian. Sounds like a hobbyist to me.
It’s also not as if the demographics have marched away from Labor in the same way that the former safe area of the Southerland Shire has over the past four decades. Labor’s successes in the corresponding Federal seat are testament to that.
Now we are in the mist of the Domicron clustercuss, so it’s still not too late for Minns to grow a pair, or for Bob Who to step up to the plate.
in 1999 just before 2000 I was asked to work on New Years Eve in case the industry superannuation system crashed
As it wasn’t an electricity grid, in say, Quebec I declined as no body gives a rats about superannuation between 18 Dec and 14 Jan, more probably 25 June, PLUS I had much more meaningful things to do, can’t remember the detail but hey?
I did however buy a new Dolphin lantern and check that we could camp in suburbia without power for a few days
cheers to you vote1julia
Just popped in for today (and a few short visits over the last couple of months). Will sod off again for a while tomorrow. Too much bludging is bad for my mental health.
What we are seeing mirrors what happened in other countries when they tried living with covid. People are forced to stay home from work when sick and people are hesitant to spend but again Morrison and the political class doesn’t look like its planned for this.
Australia has better vaccination rates than most countries in the world which provide limited protection against omicron
booster shots are available. Limited availability, in spite of the lessons from the late and slow early stages of the vaccine rollout which allowed Delta take hold.
We are fortunate to also have one of the lowest death rates in the world. So far. Tracing has collapsed. Testing is collapsing. Hospitals are under severe strain. We’ll see how it holds up in coming weeks. I would not put it beyond the Morrison and Perrottet Governments to suppress or falsify the statistics. They will at least employ a bit of “creative accounting”.
Our ICU and on ventilator rates are still low. Come back in a fortnight. Of couse, by definition, the numbers won’t exceed capacity. How many who need it will be triaged out? We’ll see in coming weeks.
Every loss of life is a tragedy….what type of person plays down the death of other Australians- especially when it will be in the thousands?
A very sick human being.
Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 10:38 pm
Oh my god get over it, the sky is not falling.
Fuck off Steely. There were 64,744 new cases today that we know about.
A month ago it was 1,284.
On “Freedom Day” it was 2,814.
The figure you forgot is ICU numbers and on ventilators both still still low. Actually case numbers are about as significant as saying 64 744 got the cold without including hospitalisation and particularly ICU rates.
For those that are not vaccinated I believe everything has been done to get them vaccinated. It is sad and selfish what they have done to themselves. For the very old and severely immunocompromised that are vaccinated they are going to have to be very careful until this is over.
As for failures Victoria has done worse than all other States and from today the infection rate in QLD, Victoria and maybe SA is worse than NSW.
As for business confidence it is still high and the ASX and world share market they are going gangbusters. Hardly a commentator that believes that business is not going to bounce back very quickly. Obviously many businesses have gone to the wall during Covid but that is the world over.