New year news: Gilmore, Pearce, Mayo

The Liberals get candidates sorted in two key seats, while a poll suggests Rebekha Sharkie has little to fear in Mayo.

First up, please note two other important posts above and below this one: the former asking for money, the latter offering an opportunity for on-topic discussion about the Senate election to mark the happy occasion of the publication of my new Senate election guide, complementing the already published seat-by-seat guide to the House.

With that out of the way, three new items of federal election news to ring in the new year:

• State MP Andrew Constance is now effectively confirmed as the Liberal candidate for the key seat of Gilmore on the New South Wales South Coast, which forms a major part of the government’s re-election strategy given its hope that Constance can recover a seat that was lost in 2019. His main rival, Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, withdrew from the race last week, saying he had formed the view that Constance was best placed to win, a view that was backed by a Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald based on party polling. Others to withdraw over the past fortnight were Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne, who said he was concerned he would face Section 44 issues due to his business dealings with the government.

• The Liberal candidate to succeed Christian Porter in the northern Perth seat of Pearce is Linda Aitken, a nurse and Wanneroo councillor who has run unsuccessfully three times for the state seat of Butler. Peter Law of The West Australian reports Aitken won a ballot of local party members ahead of Miquela Riley, a former navy officer who ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Fremantle in March, by 31 votes to 23. Aitken is a member of the Victory Life Church, founded by tennis champion and noted social conservative Margaret Court. Riley had conservative credentials of her own, with earlier reports suggesting she had support from The Clan, the factional group that achieved notoriety after an extensive WhatsApp discussion between its principals was leaked to the media.

• Elizabeth Henson of The Advertiser reports a uComms phone poll of 828 respondents for the Australia Institute suggested Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie to be headed for another comfortable win in her Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo, with a 58.5-41.5 lead over the Liberals on two-party preferred, compared with her 55.1-44.9 winning margin over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in 2019. The primary vote figures quoted are 30.9% for Sharkie, 30.8% for the Liberals, 13.3% for Labor, 7.7% for the Greens, 6.5% for One Nation, 3.3% for the United Australia Party and 3.0% for independents, with the spare 4.5% presumably being undecided. As reported on the Australia Institute website, the poll also found overwhelming support for an integrity commission and truth in political advertising laws.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,489 comments on “New year news: Gilmore, Pearce, Mayo”

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  3. “The Liar says Jen drives around looking for RAT tests – huge if true..”

    Wouldnt that be gets driven around with her security detail??

  4. Re Parramatta Moderate at 5.53 pm

    Yes indeed. I suspect Melanie Gibbons will face strong, unrelenting pressure not to resign her state seat for just that reason. She might also have second thoughts about her prospects as the Liberal candidate in Hughes, because of the Craig Kelly hangover, which will be bigger than the Bruz hangover in Monaro.

    For that reason Hughes is the ideal seat for a Voices victory in NSW. There are two independents who are running against each other and the Libs. See:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/29/battle-to-oust-craig-kelly-sees-two-independents-split-the-hughes-community

    If the optional preferential system was used federally, that would make it harder for the independent to win in Hughes, but with full preferential voting that is not necessarily a problem. Ironically, having two independents might just reduce the Liberal primary vote further. The Lib primary vote was 53% in 2019. Because of the Kelly hangover plus general factors, that could easily drop by 15 to 20%.

  6. PMs and their families, from my experience around Canberra, generally do pretty normal things – even if there is a security detail trailing along.

    But the idea of a First Lady driving up to the Chemist Warehouse in Neutral Bay or North Sydney might stretch it a bit.

  7. @ Dr Doolittle:

    “bigger margin (11.6% in Monaro compared to 7% in Bega) in that seat means Labor’s chances in Bega are much stronger”

    But my point is that that margin is an illusion. Historically the 2PP is within a very fine margin. In 2019, the ‘local boy’ had been elevated to the august position of Deputy Premier and had showered the electorate with PORK PORK PORK.

    That particular bubble has well and truly burst, hasn’t it? Therefore isn’t the real starting point in any by-election around 52-48?

    If you accept THAT starting point, THEN by all means, you can start to factor in all the other usual variables that apply to byelections. In my view Minns needs to grow a pair. Along with Bob Who back in head office.

  9. So it’s not free RATS for all, it’s free RATS for low income groups only.

    What a monumental political misjudgment this has been. The delicious part, of course, is Morrison can’t explain the real reason why there can’t be free tests for all – they didn’t order enough.

  10. BK @ #3300 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 5:38 pm

    Will there be two lines at Covid testing stations – one for PCR and the other for RATs?

    Wouldnt that make sense? PCR for close contacts (>4h) and clear symptoms or other high risk reasons. RATS for other reasons, close contacts (15min-4h) and preferably for interstate travel. All logged into the same system. You wouldnt need a nurse to hand out RATs and log the result. If you return a positive RAT – go straight to the PCR.

  11. The Nat’s position in Monaro is down almost entirely to JB’s personal vote.

    There will be a swing in Monaro, just depends who the beneficiary is.

    @GrannyAnny – appreciate and respect your preference, but I’m hardly the first to use it, lol

  13. His lips moved again ………..
    .
    Luke Henriques-Gomes(@lukehgomes)

    Very strange. Asked how many he’s personally paid for, Scott Morrison says he’ll have to ask Jenny as she buys them. But last month he described going to pharmacy in Terrigal where he “picked one up” himself pic.twitter.com/RBmoiZpo0t

    January 5, 2022

  14. From Victorian Press conferences I understand there is work being undertaken to allow people who get + RAT to record the result so that the are included in case numbers and can access health care

    RATs give false -ve results
    so if someone gets a +RAT they have covid, no need to do a PCR test

    My disgust and hatred of Scotty & Domicron’s incompetence and idealogical obsessions knows no bounds

  15. “ Harris has done OK ”

    What the actual? Since when is one knock over 50 in 16 innings (over the last 3 years) doing OK?

    Try telling THAT to Usi.

  16. If you return a positive RAT – go straight to the PCR.

    No need for a PCR after +RAT because RATs give false negatives

    +RAT == you got COVID baby

  17. Hmmmm…interstate truck divers no longer subject to testing?

    So, with basically the whole national testing system becoming some kind of RAT based voluntary reporting thing, and virtually all interstate travel (except in and out of the Cave…for now) being free of checks and monitoring, Australian Covid stats are now to be meaningless.

    Public health is obviously just too hard for Slomo and his mates.

    Covid response is turning into a farce as every chance they get the Feds push for less and fewer measures to control it. And once NSW does it, QLD and Vic are essentially screwed unless they lock-down their borders completely.

    In hindsight the best response may have just been to put up a big fence and moat around NSW and the ACT. Berlin Airlift style operation to the ACT, and let em stew in fwark ups of their own making.

    At this rate I reckon the Libs are in danger of losing more seats in W.A. than anyone would have thought possible until now. 🙁

  18. Why isn’t Morrison called out for lying only hours ago when he tried to claim it was the Victorian government who decides

    Andrew Greene
    @AndrewBGreene
    · 11m
    PM confirms authorities are examining Djokovic’s travel declaration:
    “If medical exemptions have been provided by medical professionals and that has been furnished to him as a proviso for him to get on that plane, well, that will have to stack up when he arrives in Australia”

  19. RATs give false -ve results
    so if someone gets a +RAT they have covid, no need to do a PCR test

    Ahh. OK. Thanks.

    Surely it is obvious that the idea is to flatten the curve. The more people out there with covid at anyone time the more stressed the hospitals will be and the harder it is for the vulnerable in the community to avoid getting it. A high top of the curve is also worse for the economy.

    Testing, tracing contacts and some isolation is a great way to do this. Why does Morrison fight such measures?

  23. It’s pretty clear Morrison FUCKED UP BIG in not going in November/December. Unlike certain posters who are either contrarian attention-seeking nutcases, Debbie-downers or actual Liberal voters… these issues are compounding. The tolerance the previously mentioned are expecting from the public is kind of remarkable…

  24. Jackol @ #3178 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:26 pm

    I admit I am too much of a utilitarian to see the benefit of this unless you can provide evidence of a systematic problem.

    The further you get from an urban center, the more likely you are to encounter situations where there’s literally just one option for procuring certain goods and services locally. Surely that counts, since discriminatory business practices in that situation would force people to either do without or travel unreasonably far to access a business that doesn’t discriminate?

    Also, you didn’t answer my question. What’s so special about a business owner that they should be able to extract a profit from our society while also deliberately harassing an arbitrary subset of it out of prejudice?

  25. Ratsack,

    Had friends go to Hobart from Adelaide for a weeks holiday last Monday (3rd Jan) and took them about 60 seconds to go thru arrivals. Had their eTas QR scanned which they had registered for travel. Received no questions on Covid test at all.

  26. Harris was given 16 chances to get a score before the Boxing Day test.

    Compare that with Khawaja: after scoring his eight test hundred, he was dropped after only another 6 innings (which included a 40 and 36). This is a reoccurring theme of Khawaja’s career: for some reason he ‘takes one for the team’ in circumstances where other players on equally shaky ground as to form get an extended run.

  27. a r – again I’d like to see evidence of a problem before I thought introducing law to force business owners to do this kind of thing was worthwhile. Not evidence as required in a court of law, but evidence that would legitimately drive the political process.

    I know the gay cake thing was just an example, but where are all these gay couples who are finding any trouble at all getting their cakes made?

    Also, you didn’t answer my question. What’s so special about a business owner that they should be able to extract a profit from our society while also deliberately harassing an arbitrary subset of it out of prejudice?

    There’s a big difference between a polite rejection and “deliberately harassing”. If people are “deliberately harassing” that should be covered by existing law. What we are talking about is, presumably, a bakery telling a customer “I’m sorry, we don’t want to do that.” – that isn’t “deliberately harassing”. It may cause offense, sure, but to me that doesn’t meet the threshold of being something that the state should intervene in.

  28. “Also, you didn’t answer my question. What’s so special about a business owner that they should be able to extract a profit from our society while also deliberately harassing an arbitrary subset of it out of prejudice?”

    Can you imagine never knowing if a store was going to serve you or insult you the first time you went into it.

    Also the idea that ‘it just doesn’t really matter someone else will do the selling and if not then we’ll look to a solution’ is poorly based and would be impossible to apply.

    If one little store in the CBD can refuse service to x then every store in the State should be entitled to put a big ‘No service to x’ on the front door. If the idea of every store in the State saying ‘no service to whites’ or ‘No service to Lion’s Members’ or whatever is a concern then there isn’t really a case for Bob at Bob’s Cakes to refuse service to anyone either.

  29. Unbelievable. It just gets worse.

    10 News First@10NewsFirst·
    1h
    The Prime Minister is attempting to play catch up after it was revealed the government failed to order Rapid Antigen Tests on time. He insists RATs are free to those who need them, but the catch is you must go to a state vax hub to get one | @vanOnselenP
    @Stela_Todorovic

  30. Have heard similar from other sources Kirky.

    Call me strange but I like to try and follow the rules. It seems pretty clear you can basically just say yeah I did a RAT yesterday and it was negative and unless you start looking shifty and changing your story you’re pretty much good to go even if you’ve never bothered to even try finding a shop with RATs in stock. But I’m a bit more of a team player…

    That said with the way numbers are going if I can stay ‘Rona free until I get to Hobart I’ll probably get my dose at the cricket.

  31. Dr Doolittle

    For the indies to get up on preferences, one of them has to be in the final count.

    With two indies running, this is unlikely. The indie vote will be split, and that will make it harder for their candidate/s to get ahead of the majors.

  32. for some reason he ‘takes one for the team’ in circumstances where other players on equally shaky ground as to form get an extended run.

    Dusky complexion don’t come into it.

  34. Luke Henriques-Gomes@lukehgomes·
    43m
    Very strange. Asked how many he’s personally paid for, Scott Morrison says he’ll have to ask Jenny as she buys them. But last month he described going to pharmacy in Terrigal where he “picked one up” himself

    Does our PM ever tell the truth?

  35. I think Morrison/Joyce will take the Liberals/Nationals to the next election, but just suppose Morrison is dumped by his colleagues. What would Morrison do? Would he stick around like Abbott or leave in a huff like Turnbull? How close to a federal election can you have a by-election? Who would the Liberal candidate be? (And I’ve forgotten, but didn’t the Liberals institute some rule about dumping a sitting PM?)

  36. “But the idea of a First Lady driving up to the Chemist Warehouse in Neutral Bay or North Sydney might stretch it a bit.”

    Ever tried to get a park in Neutral Bay or North Sydney?

  37. If we had a First Lady (and let’s not adopt any more American customs) she would be the GG’s wife, not the wife of our self-promoting PM.

    SBS is running a series of promotions “Let’s reimagine Australia”. We mustn’t let Scomo get his paws on it. He’s already trying to impose an American-style religious government on us.

  39. Unbelievable. It just gets worse.

    10 News First@10NewsFirst·
    1h
    The Prime Minister is attempting to play catch up after it was revealed the government failed to order Rapid Antigen Tests on time. He insists RATs are free to those who need them, but the catch is you must go to a state vax hub to get one | @vanOnselenP
    @Stela_Todorovic

    As with everything to do with the Libs you really have to parse the weasel words closely.

    You’ll notice Scotty say the RATs are free to “a close contact, as recently redefined”. So if you’re asymptomatic you have to be living with someone who has had a confirmed test or you’re not a ‘close contact’.

    So obviously if you’re working in close vicinity to someone who tests positive but you’re the first in your household to have a concern but you ain’t yet symptomatic, well you ain’t a ‘close contact’, you ain’t supposed to go to a testing center, you have to pay.

    So instead of catching it early and perhaps being able to isolate a family member before everyone in the household (and everyone they interact with) gets a dose – Let Er Rip Babeh!

    A bit of forethought and planning and the government could have had millions of tests ready to roll out to test centers for under $3 a pop. But this is the Morrison Government. The only thing that warrants forethought and planning in the Morrison Government is rorting of public funds to try and win marginal (and not so marginal) seats.

  41. ” Maybe Morrison wants a steep short curve?

    I actually think you’re on the money. He’s seen the reports from South Africa and thinks it can be done and dusted pretty much by the time he calls the election.”

    Obiwan….its his only hope. 🙂

  42. Sigh. I remember the good old days when we used to get outraged about expensive toaster ovens that the Coalition provided money for.

  43. BNO Newsroom
    @BNODesk
    ·
    6h
    French President Macron: “The unvaccinated, I really want to piss them off. And so, we’re going to continue doing so, until the end. That’s the strategy” – REU/LP

  44. ratsak:

    Plus if you’re a close contact, have symptoms or are Covid positive you shouldn’t be going out to a testing centre in the first place! State run or otherwise.

    Another weasely yet meaningless statement from SfM.

  45. imacca @ #3342 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 7:11 pm

    ” Maybe Morrison wants a steep short curve?

    I actually think you’re on the money. He’s seen the reports from South Africa and thinks it can be done and dusted pretty much by the time he calls the election.”

    Obiwan….its his only hope. 🙂

    Mate, I reckon Morrison is living on a prayer. 😀

    He thinks if he can just keep all the balls in the air until the election is done and dusted then he can order Joshie to do a Horror Budget and no one will be able to do a damn thing about it. Suckers!

  46. Parramatta Moderate says:
    Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 5:53 pm
    Thanks Dr. D. If Labor did win both Holsworthy and Bega but no change in Strathfield/Willougby/Monaro, the parliament becomes LNP 44, ALP 38, Greens 3, SFF3, Independents 3, ex-Libs 2. Interesting numbers-Perrottet would then need the SFF for a majority on the floor of the house, not just the ex-Libs.
    —————-

    I should know this, but does the NSW Parliament have fixed 4 year terms? That is, I guess Perrotet couldn’t call an early election unless there was a successful no confidence vote in the Lower House ?

  48. The problem with the steep short curve is that’s just the cases. There’s all the downstream impacts that flow from it weeks and months after the fact.

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