First up, please note two other important posts above and below this one: the former asking for money, the latter offering an opportunity for on-topic discussion about the Senate election to mark the happy occasion of the publication of my new Senate election guide, complementing the already published seat-by-seat guide to the House.
With that out of the way, three new items of federal election news to ring in the new year:
• State MP Andrew Constance is now effectively confirmed as the Liberal candidate for the key seat of Gilmore on the New South Wales South Coast, which forms a major part of the government’s re-election strategy given its hope that Constance can recover a seat that was lost in 2019. His main rival, Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, withdrew from the race last week, saying he had formed the view that Constance was best placed to win, a view that was backed by a Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald based on party polling. Others to withdraw over the past fortnight were Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne, who said he was concerned he would face Section 44 issues due to his business dealings with the government.
• The Liberal candidate to succeed Christian Porter in the northern Perth seat of Pearce is Linda Aitken, a nurse and Wanneroo councillor who has run unsuccessfully three times for the state seat of Butler. Peter Law of The West Australian reports Aitken won a ballot of local party members ahead of Miquela Riley, a former navy officer who ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Fremantle in March, by 31 votes to 23. Aitken is a member of the Victory Life Church, founded by tennis champion and noted social conservative Margaret Court. Riley had conservative credentials of her own, with earlier reports suggesting she had support from The Clan, the factional group that achieved notoriety after an extensive WhatsApp discussion between its principals was leaked to the media.
• Elizabeth Henson of The Advertiser reports a uComms phone poll of 828 respondents for the Australia Institute suggested Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie to be headed for another comfortable win in her Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo, with a 58.5-41.5 lead over the Liberals on two-party preferred, compared with her 55.1-44.9 winning margin over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in 2019. The primary vote figures quoted are 30.9% for Sharkie, 30.8% for the Liberals, 13.3% for Labor, 7.7% for the Greens, 6.5% for One Nation, 3.3% for the United Australia Party and 3.0% for independents, with the spare 4.5% presumably being undecided. As reported on the Australia Institute website, the poll also found overwhelming support for an integrity commission and truth in political advertising laws.
The thing about independent panels is a lot depends on the minister because some ministers are hands off and will accept independent decisions but other ministers lose their minds at the sight of any resistance to their brilliants.
DimTim’s not doing much these days. Maybe put him in charge of exemptions ..?
Anyone hear about the new variant called IHU in France? Apparently worse than Omicron
Jackol @ #3058 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 10:55 am
Because they chose to operate a for-profit business. Which is a wholly optional/voluntary activity, and one which only works as long as everybody else (“the state”) enables, supports, and defends the sort of civil society needed to allow such artifices to exist and thrive in the first place.
Why should a business operator be entitled to take from society with one hand, while telling a portion of that same society to fuck off with the other? The social contract for business should be that the owners/operators/shareholders get to enjoy the profits, and everybody else gets to enjoy whatever services they provide.
Businesses and the people that run them aren’t saints and martyrs. They’re out to make a buck, same as everyone else. If providing their services to everyone fairly/equally makes them miserable, too bad; nobody is forcing them to own and run a business. They can suck it up or go do something else. Fair is fair. 🙂
“But we’ve all made up our minds that it’s Dans fault !!”
Whether or not the Premier is in control of his own state is one question, oddly I for one prefer a Premier who is elected of any faux-independent clown they might gift authority to, but regardless Dan said it should happen, he was right, it is happening, and well isn’t the buck supposed to stop at the top and not at same pretend intermediary?
Rex Douglass at 1:34 pm
A good start would be unwinding many of The Rodent’s ‘reforms’ to the Public Service. Starting with all the ones that ‘incentivise’ them to prioritize pleasing the relevant Minister over good governance. Things like juicy bonuses depending on whether your Minister deems you ‘naughty’ or ‘nice’.
ratsak
I take your point about media support. Gladys never had so lucky a replacement. It only has to last during the election itself. My default position is that in the moment when the pencil hits the paper everyone votes with their gut. Competence be damned. My gut tells me Frydenberg (Vic) is too soft and Dutton (Qld) is too hard for the electorate. Morrison (NSW) is the acceptable middle. I think he’ll lead them to a loss. And like you, I was wrong about Trump in ’16 and Morrison in ’19.
Re USA: I suspect the Dems will hope Donald isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Yep. Slow and steady. Not that there isn’t a shortage of scary types in the GOP house.
All we need to complete the debate for today is for Boerwar to establish the independent panel is made up of antivax hippy Greens stooges…
“Because they chose to operate a for-profit business. Which is a wholly optional/voluntary activity, and one which only works as long as everybody else (“the state”) enables, supports, and defends the sort of civil society needed to allow such artifices to exist and thrive in the first place.
Why should a business operator be entitled to take from society with one hand, while telling a portion of that same society to fuck off with the other? The social contract for business should be that the owners/operators/shareholders get to enjoy the profits, and everybody else gets to enjoy whatever services they provide.
Businesses and the people that run them aren’t saints and martyrs. They’re out to make a buck, same as everyone else. If providing their services to everyone fairly/equally makes them miserable, too bad; nobody is forcing them to own and run a business. They can suck it up or go do something else. Fair is fair.”
Well written, in short the the ‘I’ll use the laws, community goods and freedoms and my freedoms in such a way as to limit others freedoms, is absurd. It is indefensible.
The ‘I should be allowed to destroy the lives of minorities I don’t like brigade’ invariably have an idea that their rights, successes and freedoms are innate and do not flow from their position in society.
They should be dropped on a desert island without law or community goods and let to be as free as they want, but while they are here, either sell the damn cake to everybody or don’t open a cake store.
Yay! It was initially 34 million. They secured an extra 10 million.
44 million RATs in total will be handed out to Victorians for free.
WeWantPaul @ #3159 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:44 pm
I personally would prefer medical experts to determine medical exemptions. But that’s just me.
Victoria @ #3164 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:48 pm
woohoo ! 🙂
Yep. Has this question been answered?
—–
How many reporters have asked how Novax got his visa? He wouldn’t even be allowed in the country unless the Morrison Government gave him the green light, so he’s either fully vaccinated, or someone bent the rules to let him in. https://t.co/5UxyZahbqw
My OH was up Geelong way. The line for PCR testing was a couple of km long.
These RATas cant come quick enough.
Apparently available within days.
poroti @ #3160 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:44 pm
I want to know if Taylormade is with you on this …??
U.S. COVID update: Number in hospital sees biggest one-day jump to date
– New cases: 838,080* ……………….. – New deaths: 2,358
– States reporting: 47/50
– In hospital: 113,424 (+8,687)
– In ICU: 20,617 (+1,075)
* Includes backlogs
851,439 total deaths now
Rex Douglas
Isnt it ironic. The haters are upset that Dan Andrews isnt being a dictator.
You cant make this shit up.
Mind you they would have more credibility if they were putting their angst on the Morrison govt for absolutely stuffing up the national plan of reopening the country.
“I personally would prefer medical experts to determine medical exemptions. But that’s just me.”
Yeah if you could find the leading expert, and that person be completely independent and free thinking and all wise and free from all political and financial interests and of pure heart mind and soul then I’m with you.
When the medical person is a doctor that has fought their way to the top of an incredibly elite and incredibly political (and largely right leaning partisan) profession, known to have the most effective and vicious union in the country, I’d like the people I elect to listen to the expert then exercise the political judgement they were damn well elected to exercise, and not hide like a useless coward behind some gladwrap fig leaf of an excuse.
For the record because people here as so terrible at reading and so wiling (no desperate) to jump to absurd unfounded conclusions, my opposition to abrogation of responsibility to pretend independent bodies, and my criticism of those who do it applies to all Premiers and the PM, I’m pretty sure.
Ironically Morrison has probably made the most of his decision making responsibilities, which on my argument is the right thing for him to do, and the right thing for us to do is damn his decision making abilities because he gets it wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME.
Personally I wouldn’t consider his decision making sufficiently good to trust him with a lollipop stop / go job, he’d get it wrong.
C@t
Back up thread RE your questions about voting options if we’re all still infected.
Journo’s should seriously be asking Morrison what contingencies they have in place. I can bet like you said it would be sweet FA.
I hate conspiracy but that might be one of their options, voter suppression. Straight out of their mates the Republicans handbook.
Not that there isn’t a shortage of scary types in the GOP house.
Oh of course not. By they way they’ve all given over to the cause of voter suppression and complete intransigence none of them with perhaps the exception of Cheney and Kinzinger are anything other than at best stooges for totalitarianism.
But like Morrison in 2019 it’s not widely recognised in the general public what they are. They are mostly able to benefit from a form of plausible deniability about what they really are and what they really stand for.
Trump himself benefitted from just this sort of plausible deniability in 2016. Anyone paying the least attention could easily see he had no business being anywhere near any position of power unless you were actively trying to damage the institution he was seeking election to. But most people aren’t paying that much attention. So he could get enough to give him the benefit of the doubt that they at least stayed home if not outright voted for him.
That’s why the Dems will want Trump front and centre as the face of the Republicans in Nov and not some new face or even worse no particular target (thus making it all about Biden). Trump has no plausible deniability now. He’s a known quantity. 60% of the Republican base can believe any fairy stories of stolen elections all they want. If the not insane part of the country see the midterms as Trump looking to finish the job of the insurrection they’ll probably turn out and keep the congress blue even if Biden’s ratings haven’t recovered.
Spend a few minutes on the news website of your choice and your can find detailed information about how medical exemptions to enter Australia are granted.
The process doesn’t only apply to tennis players.
They key is, according to the doctor quoted at length in the Nine newspapers report, is that the panel does not know who is applying for the exemption. She says all information, even age unless it is relevant, is redacted. She says they don’t know if it’s a tennis player or a garbo.
According to the conspiracy theorists and the haters, she’s lying and Dan approved it. And he’s been given a free holiday at a luxury holiday house somewhere by Tennis Australia to ensure the fix was in.
Personally I think Djokovic is, like many elite athletes, a dickhead. I used to cut him more slack over his behaviour than most.
But I don’t give anti-vaxxers any leeway.
But, don’t let facts get in the way of public outrage..
“Novak Djokovic has convinced two separate panels who did not know his name, age or country of origin that he’s entitled to enter the country without a COVID19 vaccination.”
https://t.co/DD3YTAzAtq
Morrison must be holding a presser now – pathetically trying to justify himself:
35,000 cases of Morrison’s and Perrotet’s personal responsibility in a single day.
Did Berejiklian see this coming and resign to protect here record?
I know here there is an existential need to defend Dan whether or not the facts support it, but just stepping back for a moment the Commonwealth has to let this dangerous idiot into the country and Victoria has to let him into the State (either with or without quarantine).
Now the PM is an idiot who has delegated to Border Force, one of the most partisan and disreputable law enforcement agencies the Country has, so no surprise they are welcoming him.
What is the basis for him avoiding quarantine in Victoria? Is there some delegation of power to some one who said ‘yeah cool just coming unvaccinated to play a sport, we need that in Victoria, no quarantine for you’. No delegation nor set of principles / rules to apply in the delegation can justify that outcome, and no argument can possibly change that the Premier is in charge, whether or not authority is delegated to their best friend, chief of staff or an independent expert, it just isn’t the way representative democracy works.
I’m wondering how many anti-vaxxers will produce forged certificates so that they can cheer on their hero in Centre Court.
The redacted blind argument is hilarious.
Reason exemption is sought: [redacted]
Approved!!!!!!!!!
or
Applicant [name redacted] is the No [redacted] player on the mens international [redacted] circuit, and seeks exemption to to enable them to play [redacted]
Approved!!! And I can’t guess who!!!!
Yes minister worthy stuff this, hilarious.
a r – I will clearly not agree with your assertion that it’s better to make people miserable or put them out of business in order to prove some point of principle.
I admit I am too much of a utilitarian to see the benefit of this unless you can provide evidence of a systematic problem.
Morrison
Please define peace of mind tests, PM. sigh.
“unless you can provide evidence of a systematic problem”
we are done then, we’ll never find any systematic problem of racism, or bigotry, or intolerance in any human population, problem solved.
Vic has a clear trajectory view from NSW of what is going to happen – esp under current settings
Can anyone explain why they are doing nothing different to NSW today in terms of settings?
free RATs etc i grant as a difference in terms of response… but why not, seeing how it is playing out in NSW, get out in front of things settings-wise… could it be that both states are essentially pursuing a herd immunity strategy via mass infection and gambling ICU/hospitals will cope?
if even 15-20% of these outbreaks are Delta (and they know it or reasonably suspect so), then what is happening in both states could look extraordinarily negligent
Michael @ #3176 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 2:16 pm
Thanks for that. I was also just reading about how popular iVote was for the NSW Council elections just passed. I wish we could use it for federal elections.
“Well written, in short the the ‘I’ll use the laws, community goods and freedoms and my freedoms in such a way as to limit others freedoms, is absurd. It is indefensible.”
Absurd? I use our laws and community goods to limit others’ freedoms all the time. My car is mine, my house is mine; not free for anyone to use, and if you do I’d probably call the police.
I’m not convinced that the freedom to walk into any retail outlet and procure specific goods and services is one we need to use the arms of the state to enforce.
If the service or good is denied to a group within society in the large, then we are talking about a systematic issue that probably does require a state-backed solution.
And there I was thinking that a Covid test was to tell you whether you have Covid or not. I never thought taking a RAT would engender ‘peace of mind’. I must use one next time I’m feeling anxious about something. 🙂
Talks have been going on for months but now we are to believe it was a blind decision.
The rumor is that Novak skipped the ATP Cup after his application was rejected and now he has one.
“Absurd? I use our laws and community goods to limit others’ freedoms all the time. My car is mine, my house is mine; not free for anyone to use, and if you do I’d probably call the police.”
But all the things you list, including what rights you have to defend ‘your car’ and ‘your house’ all flow to you from the State, without the State it isn’t your car, it is simply the car you possess, without the State it isn’t your house, it is simply the house you occupy.
To take all those rights under the law, rights you embrace so closely you see them as innate, rather than coming from the state and then seek to deny others statutory rights because the State shouldn’t enforce them, is well an oddly formed argument.
This is a thoughtful article on the basis for right wing anger in the USA, and how it fuels their sense of loss.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/opinion/capitol-riot.html
If you don’t have access to the article, the writer’s thesis in a nutshell is that the USA’s 18th century constitution and the institutions that stem from it don’t support a fair democratic process, and that in itself is dangerous. As evidence he points to the GOP regularly gaining less votes in races they win. His point being that when they do lose they are outraged because they don’t understand the fragile nature of their previous wins.
He also takes a dig at journalists, who have …
Again his point is that when the GOP loses it is easy to inflame the losers. It’s an interesting point.
My gut tells me Frydenberg (Vic) is too soft and Dutton (Qld) is too hard for the electorate. Morrison (NSW) is the acceptable middle.
My gut tells me they’re a pair of nasty scumbags, but my gut doesn’t fill out 17 or so million other Australian’s ballot papers. If either of them were to get the job and replace Morrison the PR machine would swing into action and some barely credible fairy story of their hitherto unknown qualities would become the new narrative. And every possible fault of Albo real or imagined would also get a damn good work out. Morrison can’t rely on that this time – he’s known. If he’s the PM the election will be about him. If he’s not then the election will largely be about Albanese and Labor.
It might not work because this government is so old and so breathtakingly incompetent (not to mention corrupt). But it won’t fail for lack of trying. Win or lose they’ll end up with a 2PP in the high 40s so they only need to get a couple of percent to fall for the play again.
I do agree that as of today Morrison leading the government to a loss is the most likely of all outcomes. But it’s nothing like a cert. If enough Libs come to the conclusion it is a near certainty (and the explosion of numbers and inaccessibility of tests makes that more likely each day not less) then the odds of Morrison retaining the confidence of his party diminish. This could happen very quickly given how quickly Covid has spread since the decision to let her rip. (Having the glaring counter-factual of WA to compare and contrast approaches to won’t help settle government nerves)
A few shocker polls before the return of parliament and MPs and Senators talking to each other wondering how Morrison could fuck it all up so badly after they were so well placed once the stroll out actually got in arms…
Basically I won’t be taking a newly minted Liberal PM for anything other than the hot favourite in an election. I hope the Libs do meekly follow Morrison over the cliff (assuming of course he can’t actually pull off miracle 2.0 and/or Labor doesn’t fuck it up again…) but those bastards love winning and none of them much actually even like Scotty so I reckon he’s no safer than Abbott or Turnbull were when enough of them decide it’s time to try something new. If it happens it really will be game on.
lizzie @ #3178 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 1:24 pm
My daughter works with an anti-vaxxer who would rather pay for a forged certificate than get the free vaccine. Her worksite has since mandated vaccinations. My double vaxxed daughter now eats lunch in her car just so she doesn’t have to mingle with the anti-vaxxer.
max @ #3114 Wednesday, January 5th, 2022 – 12:59 pm
Thank you, for this, and the previous lengthy reply, which gobbles up your time. I know. Your initial recollections of Swan on the failures of the Vic Health system I found a bit jarring, for apportioning blame (Andrews) and omissions (Kennett). I’m looking forward to listening to both this evening. My loose memories of the roots of the problems involved Kennett’s brutal slashing of funding, and failure to heed advice on decentralisation. You mentioned 9 years of Vic Labor as relevant in not repairing the damage. It’s not easy to come from behind in an ever expanding financial black hole, hobbled by structural defects. My bias is being an admirer of Andrews. Is that bias? Keep well, and thanks again.
“Anyone hear about the new variant called IHU in France? Apparently worse than Omicron”
some discussion up-thread yesterday. Not a worry at the moment from the reading. small numbers, quite local (has been around at least since early Nov 21) and speculated that as a virus its been out-competed by Omicron.
No it’s not, WWP, it’s a limitation on the power of the state to direct the use of private property.
You’ll find it filed under “Liberal” in the system of government called “Liberal Democracy.” The state has a monopoly on violence, and is only authorised to use it to enforce actions as prescribed by laws, where laws are determined by an (approximately) democratically elected set of representatives.
Under the existing social contract, the systems says that I have the right to prevent someone from using my private property, and if this is violated, I can call on the state to enforce my right.
You are arguing that the state should be able to compel an individual to use their property and labour to produce goods and services they do not want to produce. I am uncomfortable with this as a starting point – but could be convinced of the need for it in specific circumstances if you can show that there is a systematic issue of discrimination at play.
So what time the pronouncement from national cabinet?? Not expecting much.
I expect State Premiers will run with free RAT to all that NEED them.
Not Morriscum’s plan to let his mates take a retail skimming and most tests going to those who can afford them (who will soak up WAY too many) while the poor get whats left.
Late Riser
It’s the anti-vaxxer who should be taking responsibility to avoid others, but I suppose that requires a social conscience.
I’m sick to death of everything being a “challenge” for Morrison. Of course it is. He’s a barely functioning adult. It’s like scaffolders complaining about heights. Job meet description, Mr Morrison.
imacca
We will all NEED the bloody things sooner or later. I bet Morrison is holding their budgets over their heads to ‘persuade’ them.
Newcorps appear to be running a campaign to get Dutton to replace Morrison before the next election and run on an anti China policy of keeping Australia “safe”.
It will be interesting to see if the Liberals panic and dump Morrison after the first Newspoll at the end of January.
Personally I think Dutton would just lead the lemmings off the cliff.
(guardian live stream)
“No it’s not, WWP, it’s a limitation on the power of the state to direct the use of private property.
You’ll find it filed under “Liberal” in the system of government called “Liberal Democracy.” The state has a monopoly on violence, and is only authorised to use it to enforce actions as prescribed by laws, where laws are determined by an (approximately) democratically elected set of representatives.
Under the existing social contract, the systems says that I have the right to prevent someone from using my private property, and if this is violated, I can call on the state to enforce my right.
You are arguing that the state should be able to compel an individual to use their property and labour to produce goods and services they do not want to produce. I am uncomfortable with this as a starting point – but could be convinced of the need for it in specific circumstances if you can show that there is a systematic issue of discrimination at play.”
That is one way of putting it, I’d put it that in order to enjoy the property rights from the State you need to recognise the rights of all citizens to participate fully in the society without prejudice, bigotry and racism, and that, that basic right to participate fully is orders of magnitude more important than property rights, and it compels no action on the part of you bigoted property holders, they are completely entitled to not trade with the greater community, they just don’t have a right to trade in a racist / bigoted way that innately excludes some members of society.
The arguments that they are really excluded, it doesn’t really matter, surely applies equally to vendor, if the right to exclude isn’t important and doesn’t really matter then why would you grant it in the first place, knowing you can’t do so without excluding a portion of the society from full engagement.
You surely have to fall back on some right to be bigoted and to impose that bigotry on others?
Is that what I’ll find “filed under “Liberal” in the system of government called “Liberal Democracy.”
“Under the existing social contract, the systems says that I have the right to prevent someone from using my private property, and if this is violated, I can call on the state to enforce my right.”
Are you arguing that those rights are innate or that they flow from the social contract? Because if they flow from the social contract then again I’d assert that a right to participate fully in the society without being marginalised by racism and bigotry is an order of magnitude MORE important that individual property rights not less important to the point where liberal democracy forces one to empower bigotry and racism and other forms and exclusion without any justification.