Newspoll and BludgerTrack breakdowns

Newspoll state breakdowns point to swings to Labor of between 3% and 5%, with the extraordinary exception of Western Australia.

Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.

The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.

The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.

Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,165 comments on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack breakdowns”

Comments Page 39 of 44
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  1. Update on my COVID situation

    Daughter received her notification around 2330 last night, my son at 0630, my partner at 1130 and mine around 1300 today. PCR tests done two days ago.

    All negative which is a relief but my daughter’s cousin and aunt who my daughter spent all day Christmas Day with are both positive and quite unwell. Clearly it’s luck of the draw.

    Emerging from our 3 day iso it appears many, many more people are wearing masks again outdoors despite the heat. I went for a walk and was abused by a woman for not wearing a mask outdoors (I do carry one at all times).

    Friends are cancelling NYE celebrations and gatherings all over as they are worried about the testing delays and rapid spread.

    However the NYE fireworks in Melbourne is fully booked and will proceed (depending on whether a total fire ban is announced)

    I suspect a combination of the heat and anxiety re Omicron will see a very subdued NYE in Melbourne tomorrow night.

  3. Frances Vinall
    @fvinall
    ·
    56m
    The group Millions March Against Mandatory Vaccinations has taken credit for today’s Old Parliament House protest on its Facebook page, where it livestreamed this morning’s fire

  4. SA – testing for those who are close contacts OR have symptoms.

    Everyone else should NOT get tested and Premier wants to reduce lines by 80%.

    Close contacts= households + sexual partners – NO ONE ELSE!!!

  6. Scotty the Announcer should let Paul Kelly do this new rules stuff – half the population don’t believe a word he says, and the other half thinks he is gaslighting them.

  8. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 3:06 pm

    ….

    We all move on.’
    ————————–
    The Greens’ despicable attitude to the Statement of the Heart is still there.

  9. This is a mistake to have a proven Liar explaining, in detail, the new rules. He can’t resist inserting hokey things like ‘go to the beach’, and ‘you don’t need to go and get a test’

  15. @naff:

    “ I’d like to see a play on RGR performed by local troupes in each electorate.”

    I see your suggestion as a perfect opportunity for you and your BFF, L’arse, to leave the mediocrity of the bludger board behind you both as you buy an old combi van and start touring the country with your puppet show. Go well and bon voyage.

  19. Honestly what is this

    Morrison:

    “So, to summarise, if you are a confirmed case, seven days.

    “On the sixth day, you have a rapid antigen test and if that is positive after seven days, you can go back into the community.

    “If you are a close contact, you get a rapid antigen test. If that returns a negative, you still remain in isolation for those seven days and you have a rapid antigen test again on day six.
    ————————————————

    Does this mean Morrison wants to force people who are not positive to covid to be isolated and those who are positive with covid to spread it into the communites

  25. I would love to see Albo take off the metaphorical gloves and square up to the Libs on the issue of our National Day. He could make us proud by taking the initiative and looking like a leader instead of ducking and weaving. It’s obvious to most fair-minded people that, by definition, a National Day must try to appeal to all segments of the community, unlike January 26. I would suggest that if the process of the indigenous ‘Statement from the Heart’ progresses to either a plebiscite or a referendum, then, assuming it passes, that date could be considered as a suitable alternative to Jan 26. Just make sure it’s held in summer as we don’t like our national holidays to be wasted in the middle of winter. I suggest in the latter half of February – just after Ash Barty wins the Oz Open.

  26. So will there be exceptions for international travelers, cruisers and frequent flyers?

    I guarantee there will be for politicians.

  27. nath says:
    Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 3:12 pm
    I’d like to see a play on RGR performed by local troupes in each electorate.
    ________________-
    We could have an explanatory soliloquy(s) from Sprockets as a “senior front row player” explaining key moments to the audience.

    And of course no troupe is complete without a foolvio to amuse the audience.

  30. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 3:28 pm

    This missing point is what about those who simply cannot afford several RATs (if they are available, that is)?
    …’
    ———————
    Simples. They are personally responsible for being too poor to afford RATS.

  32. The question was “what is the advice for people who wish to celebrate New Year” and he craps on about the economy. He is insufferable.
    Then suggests having a BBQ outdoors, like he is. FFS.

  36. Scotty now drinking his own bathwater- saying how great his management of the pandemic has been. Will be looking for Lars and nath with their sedan chair shortly

  38. BK – a fast talking middle aged white man’s concept of ‘common sense’ does not necessarily map onto the demographics most at risk of catching the virus

  41. You just know he’s answering his last question when he puts on the oily used car salesman, faux sincerity routine and then winds up with what he thinks is some loin girding Churchillian oratory to finish.
    Then off he goes, triumphant.

  42. Hmm, who to take seriously on Australian attitudes to changing the date?

    Tedious bore and embittered old fart on an auspol forum
    Or a survey of >17,000 Australians taken this year

    In totally unsurprising news old man screaming at the clouds daily on an auspol forum doesn’t represent younger people and women’s attitudes so much, who’d have guessed that.

    Don’t bother clicking the link if other views offend

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-18/australia-day-january-26-views-changing-australia-talks-reveals/100223940

    Women, young people leading push for change

    Women and men had differing thoughts on the question of whether Australia Day should be moved — it was one of the Australia Talks survey questions on which men and women were most divided.

    Around two thirds of Australian women are now in favour of a rethink on holding Australia Day on January 26, compared with 51 per cent of men.

    Young people overwhelmingly supported a new direction — 65 per cent of Australians aged 18-24 and 71 per cent aged 25-29 were also in favour of a change.

    Despite the craziness of some things over recent times, this survey was published less than 6 months ago

  43. Quoll
    The Greens and their casual bigotry. Changing the date is the sort of policy you do when in government but problem with doing policies on polling like that from Australia Talks is just how many of the respondents are swing voters in marginal seats.

  44. nath

    “ I’d like to see a play on RGR performed by local troupes in each electorate.”

    I take it you have taken the role of Bill Shorten ?

  49. Rex Douglas @ #1943 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 1:17 pm

    But you’d be taking away all the emotive virtual signalling.

    Straight out of the Mark Latham playbook, which I threw in the bin.

    Poor Rex,

    Without your reflexive virtual signalling more people might realise how shallow you are.

    I hope your new Teal friends aren’t listening to your strategic advice.

    I like them to have some chance of upsetting the Liberals.

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