Newspoll and BludgerTrack breakdowns

Newspoll state breakdowns point to swings to Labor of between 3% and 5%, with the extraordinary exception of Western Australia.

Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.

The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.

The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.

Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,165 comments on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack breakdowns”

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  2. Changing date should occur but only after serious progress with Uluru statement. Both Jan 26 and any new day will continue to be subject to objection until we sort out an understanding between indigenous and non indigenous Australians.

  4. mlb kiwi Thought balloon
    @mlbkiwi
    ·
    1h
    NATIONAL CABINET SUMMARY: Scott Morrison says – Less testing means less confirmed cases and less close contacts. That will cure all of our troubles with the pandemic – FFS!!!#auspol

  8. I must admit for the first time I am worried about Covid and the spread. As I said yesterday OH had a bad bout of non covid pneumonia in November. OH is still recovering but wants to go out and get back to some sort of life. The levels of covid infections around make this risky. We got boosters yesterday but still worried. Not sure if I am catastrophizing things or the risk is real.

    Just seen cases went up 17 in our postcode today.

  10. It’s now official. You have absolutely no chance of catching Covid if:

    1. You are with an infected person for four hours in a household but they’re not yet a confirmed case.

    2. You are sitting next to an infected person on any flight, even a four hour flight across the continent. Similarly for a long distance train or coach trip.

    3. You are working a shift next to others in a confined space.

    4. You are in a pub, club, restaurant, nightclub, shopping centre, movies or anywhere else you might go.

    Hooray! Staying at home is a definite way to catch Covid but going out and spending money not only benefits the economy but also makes you fit and healthy.

    National cabinet has agreed to a new definition of a COVID-19 close contact to mean someone who has been with a confirmed case for more than four hours within a household.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the change to the definition would take place from midnight tonight in NSW, Victoria, the ACT, South Australia and Queensland and in Tasmania from midnight on January 1.

  11. It’s interesting to read some comments re Australia Day. I completely agree that the date of our national day should be changed, for obvious reasons. But to do it now, and to aggressively campaign for it now, in my opinion would be electoral suicide, it would greatly increase the chances of getting another 3 years of Morrison.

    The federal election is going to be largely decided in places like the outer suburbs of Sydney and Perth and in northern Tasmania, not in Marrickville or Fitzroy. Do people really think “Invasion Day” rhetoric is going to win votes in these electorates? People make emotional decisions when they vote, based on their self-identity and the personality of the candidates and party leaders, as much as they do on rational economic self-interest or on policies. Labor has lost huge chunks of its white working-class base since the days of Bob Hawke, and going hard on changing Australia Day is just the kind of thing to alienate this group further.

    Change will eventually come. Every election more than 500,000 voters from last time are no longer with us. Younger people will have different attitudes on many issues such as this. Some voices from the LNP can already be heard talking about a more appropriate date for Australia Day. But it’s about 10 years too early for Labor to talk about a change, in my opinion. We can be sure that Morrison will try to use Australia Day 2022 as a wedge-let’s not let him succeed!

  12. Lars Von Trier @ #1923 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 3:37 pm

    nath says:
    Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 3:12 pm
    I’d like to see a play on RGR performed by local troupes in each electorate.
    ________________-
    We could have an explanatory soliloquy(s) from Sprockets as a “senior front row player” explaining key moments to the audience.

    And of course no troupe is complete without a foolvio to amuse the audience.

    Nath and L’arse right into the circular arse sniffing and licking, on cue. Sad, but sick-funny all the same. It’s not hard to identify the rabid curs. They self report, and project.

  14. MB. The objection is that Australia was colonised disregarding indigenous rights. Any national day should be a day for all Australians to celebrate. We are a long way off.

  15. It is funny* that so many of those who were alive well before ANZAC day and Australia Day were politicised and turned into quasi spiritual nationalistic tests of cultural conformity and Western Civilisation** are so caught up in this pathetic political theatre.

    * funny in the pathetic way
    ** Western Civilisation in the white supremacist way.

  16. Bullshitman’s ‘authoritah’ did nae last long. 😆
    .
    .
    WA plays waiting game on new COVID definition

    WA will not follow other States on a new definition of close contacts that require testing and isolation until a date still to be determined, possibly when the border reopens on February 5
    https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-national-cabinet-agrees-new-close-contacts-definition-but-wa-will-wait-to-apply-it-c-5132423

  17. These policy settings from ScoMo are so ridiculously assinine – i mean it shows such contempt for people’s intelligence levels to even trot this out with a straight face

  19. Spence
    That is why the national day should be one that has nothing to do with colonization and that rules out any day connected to the creation of Australia like the day the first parliament opened or the day Australia became official but the 3rd of December and there might be other days that have no links to colonization or indigenous people’s dispossession.

  23. “MB. The objection is that Australia was colonised disregarding indigenous rights. Any national day should be a day for all Australians to celebrate. We are a long way off.”

    It was never going to unite, it is clearly meant to divide and put white supremacy at the heart of national debate, it is an explicit celebration of the dispossession of first Australians and a reminder to everyone else that true Australians are very white and more English than Australian. A statement that people of all non pasty white skin tones will never be true Australians.
    .
    It is absurd in that it doesn’t even adequately represent non-NSW colonies on the continent.

    It can never unite it is deliberately divisive.

  24. Quoll
    “Tedious bore and embittered old fart on an auspol forum
    Or a survey of >17,000 Australians taken this year”

    ‘Australia Talks’ was not a random survey. As I recall, the ‘Australia Talks’ survey results were used as filler for ABC news bulletins, and a boring one-off special hosted by Annabel Crabb and Nazeem Hussain. If you’re trying to use the survey results to bolster your cause, you’re wasting your time and everyone else’s.

  26. WWP
    “It is funny* that so many of those who were alive well before ANZAC day and Australia Day were politicised and turned into quasi spiritual nationalistic tests of cultural conformity and Western Civilisation**”

    You’re not wrong. I’m heartily sick of the way both Australia Day and Anzac Day have been turned into jingoistic semi-religious rituals. Irrespective of the intent, both are increasingly dedicated to exclusion rather than inclusion.

    And to pre-empt accusations of being unAustralian (*gasp*), I say this as someone whose Anglo-Celtic ancestors arrived in Australia in the early 1800’s, and whose family was decimated by the First World War.

  27. Speaking of surveys, I can’t believe it’s been over four years since the marriage equality not-a-referendum postal survey.

    I still vividly recall some commentators celebrating it as the beginning of a new era where more big questions will be asked of the public and the nature of the government becoming more democratic and open. And then we never heard anything on that idea again.

  28. Authorities report only a handful of COVID cases, but locals suspect the real concern is rodent-spread hemorrhagic fever:

    Around 150 medical staff from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) air force have been dispatched to Xi’an, the northwestern Chinese city that has been in lockdown for more than a week due to what the government says are scores of COVID-19 infections.

    According to a social media post by the state-run People’s Daily, many of the personnel who arrived in Xi’an at 8 p.m. on Dec. 27 are “veterans” of previous biosafety crises, having “arm-wrestled the Grim Reaper” during the SARS pandemic of 2003 and the original COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan.

    A video posted by Chinese Twitter users shows much personnel in heavy biochemical protective clothing in the streets of Xi’an, which is an industrial center home to around 13 million and one of China’s ancient capitals.

    Locals have questioned the official explanation for the outbreak and lockdown, as cases of hemorrhagic fever have been reported in the city. Hemorrhagic fever, a viral infection transmitted by rodents, is endemic to Xi’an.

  29. Quoll says:
    Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 4:03 pm

    Hmm, who to take seriously on Australian attitudes to changing the date?

    Tedious bore and embittered old fart on an auspol forum
    Or a survey of >17,000 Australians taken this year…’
    ========================================
    Quoll is a classic holier-than-thou Grens.

    The Greens and the Liberals and the Nationals are on the same page when it comes from the Statement from the Heart. The Greens and the Liberals are stunting their pathetic wedges. They are intent on doing divide and conquer over Indigenous people. They have set up or are intent on setting up ERSATZ colonial-style ‘voice’ arrangements.

    ONLY Labor is supporting that 100%. ONLY Labor.

  30. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 5:18 pm

    Authorities report only a handful of COVID cases, but locals suspect the real concern is rodent-spread hemorrhagic fever…
    —————————
    The Global Times has been reporting this for some time in extremely circumspect ways. It is clear that the problem is both the Fever and Covid.

  31. “And to pre-empt accusations of being unAustralian (*gasp*), I say this as someone whose Anglo-Celtic ancestors arrived in Australia in the early 1800’s, and whose family was decimated by the First World War.”

    I too fall from the pasty white southern english tree.

    And ANZAC day in its original form, ie a reminder that no matter how little or great the justification for war is it is an innately terrible, terrible thing and that kills lots of innocent young people. A sober reminder of this is critical. That is not what ANZAC day has become, it is now much more Rupert Brooke than it is Wilfred Owen, and that is now somehow more important rather and universally seen as the nationalistic pro-war farce it has become, is very difficult to understand.

  32. He did?

    Morrison said the quiet part out loud today. He said in no uncertain terms that we can’t have free RAT’s because that would interfere with the profit of private buisness. Undeniable proof this government puts money before people. Absolutely sickening.

  33. On happier notes, having come for the bubble MW is much too kind to those minions of Rupert and evil that are in every single corner of Australian media including at the Guardian, but other than that and excellent little reminder that the press corp is an elite institution that is part governed almost entirely by Murdoch and works with both parties predominantly in the interests of capital at the expense of most Australians.

    https://youtu.be/aE2gnql0oJ8

  34. Victoria
    Clearly no one has told the idiot that just because the public doesn’t pay doesn’t equal no profit because the government would be paying for it.

  35. ‘Drongo says:
    Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 3:35 pm

    I would love to see Albo take off the metaphorical gloves and square up to the Libs on the issue of our National Day. He could make us proud by taking the initiative and looking like a leader instead of ducking and weaving. It’s obvious to most fair-minded people that, by definition, a National Day must try to appeal to all segments of the community, unlike January 26. I would suggest that if the process of the indigenous ‘Statement from the Heart’ progresses to either a plebiscite or a referendum, then, assuming it passes, that date could be considered as a suitable alternative to Jan 26. Just make sure it’s held in summer as we don’t like our national holidays to be wasted in the middle of winter. I suggest in the latter half of February – just after Ash Barty wins the Oz Open.’
    ————————————————–
    Uh huh. That is one way to help ensure another three years of Morrison. And Morrison, as we all know, is 100% committed to Indigenous issues. We all know that, don’t we. It also fits in well with the Greens who live to wedge Labor. We all know exactly what the Greens have delivered for Indigenous First Nations over the past 30 years, don’t we? Fuck all.
    There has only been one Party that has consistently delivered for Indigenous First Nations: Labor.
    The other parties are in the road.

  36. From the Guardian live blog …

    When’s a good time to release some bad data… how about the eve of New Year’s Eve?

    So today, the Queensland government has published the delayed Statewide Landcover and Trees Study (SLATS) that covers land clearing for the 2018-19 year.
    During those 12 months, landholders cleared 680,688 hectares. It’s a bit tricky to compare with previous years – such as the 392,000 hectares reported cleared in 2017-18 – as the remote technology has been improved.

    Still, it appears that Queensland is clearing a lot of land. The 2018-19 tally amounts to about 3800 times the size of Melbourne’s CBD, or more than 2400 times Sydney’s.

    “This report is a carbon bomb that threatens to blow up the commitments to net zero emissions by 2050 made by the Queensland and Australian governments,” Dr Stuart Blanch, WWF-Australia conservation scientist, said in a statement.

    “It shows clearing has likely been significantly under-reported in previous reports. The latest SLATS data was compiled using satellite images that are three times more accurate than the previous imagery and cover much more of the state. The data provides a new national best-practice standard that all governments and industry should adopt,” Blanch said.

    To give the amount some context, Australia’s national greenhouse gas inventory estimated landclearing in 2018 calendar year was about 370,000 hectares nationwide. In that year, the Commonwealth government also claimed the land sector was a net sink in the order of more than 20 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide.

    As Guardian Australia reported a couple of months ago, there is good reason to think Australia’s statistics underestimate the amount of landclearing that is going on. Today’s figures from Queensland are only going to add to those concerns.

    Now, if only Queensland had a Labor government … oh, wait … 🙁

    Vote Independent. It’s your only chance.

  37. Worth noting:

    Andrew Hobkirk@HobkirkAndrew · 1h
    I don’t think $16b will be enough to buy Morrison’s re-election. I live in a very wealthy area, few have a good word to say about Morrison these days. We are resigned to having to pay more tax, but it will be worth it to clean the decks.

  38. With the new changes coming in does this mean

    So there is no need for people to get vaccinated or even the boosters ?

    No need for domestic/International Vaccine passports anymore ?

    No need to worry about people having coughs, sneezing , etc while at the beach or in pubs and clubs ?

  39. Eureka Dec 3 represents in part colonisers and emigrants brawling over who should get the benefits from digging up Australian resources without any care for the indigenous owners. See the problem?
    How is that an event recognising 50 to 60,000 years of Australian history.

  40. Reference the change in the way ANZAC day is conducted. It is now a carnival but when I was young it was a very solemn affair.

    Even in my small country town there would a considerable parade before the service. At that time there was still a fair few WW1 veterans and then a large group of those who served in WW2. They would be followed by the volunteer fire brigade, complete with polished brass helmets and then groups like the girl guides and boy scouts. The parade would be brought to order by a real ex sergeant major with a very loud voice and then would proceed to the war memorial. Once there, there would be a rapid mood change. This was not that long after the end of the war so to many, it was a stark reminder of what happened. Many would be weeping.

    Although I don’t attend any more I can sort of understand why it is different. All those directly impacted are gone so there is no collective memory of what happened to ordinary people.

  41. I’d like to know which infection expert has decided that it takes 4 hours to be infected with Corvid.

    Oops, Covid the virus, not Corvid the Crow 🙂

  42. Ashes match referee David Boon is in Melbourne quarantine after testing positive for COVID-19, forcing him to be replaced for next week’s fourth Test at the SCG.

  45. WWP
    “And ANZAC day in its original form, ie a reminder that no matter how little or great the justification for war is it is an innately terrible, terrible thing and that kills lots of innocent young people”

    Well said, and I completely agree.

  46. Spence
    The perfect day to honor Indigenous Australian history is the day the Mabo judgement was handed down and recognised Indigenous people’s connection to their land and Eureka Day is as good as any day for a national day because it has no relationship with the treatment of Indigenous people and whatever date is chosen has to be free of any connection to colonization because if Indigenous Australian can’t accept a date then the reactionaries will claim they were right to reject changing the date.

  47. The AMA has released a statement following the National Cabinet decision to adopt a new definition of who is a close contact.

    AMA President Dr Omar Khorshid said narrowing the definition to household contacts will lock in very high transmission rates and accelerate the outbreak of Omicron.
    …
    The AMA called for the release of the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee’s (AHPPC) advice and modelling that supports the National Cabinet decision.

    “Without the release of AHPPC’s advice, it is very difficult for us to share the Prime Minister’s confidence that this move will assist in keeping Australians safe and healthy.

    As I was saying.

  48. The delta variant passed from a limo driver to another person in Myer, Bondi Junction as they passed within a metre of each other.
    Remind me again. How much more contagious is Omicron?

  49. A businessman type asked for RAT kits in an affluent eastern Adelaide suburban pharmacy this arvo. The pharmacist said he’d just sold his last one, adding that the Victorian and Queensland governments had ordered millions to give to their citizens.

    The customer opined that the SA Government would probably do the same.

    “Don’t know about that,” said the pharmacist. “Victoria and Queensland have Labor govenments. We have a Liberal government.”

    The customer grunted something, and left the shop empty-handed.

  50. “Bungled”

    “Botched”

    These are the words

    Then you get Lloyd Bridges from C Hunt with his weekly PR announcement of a (so one) medicine being added to the PBS (saving sufferers from whatever the ailment of the week is hundreds of thousands of dollars)

    All PR

    Do it once and do it right – not use it as a weekly PR announcement to promote how good government is

    “Bungled”

    “Botched”

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