Essential Research leadership ratings and end-of-year review

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings maintain a downward trend, as the government scores middling ratings for its overall performance for the year.

Essential Research has published its final fortnightly poll for the year, which includes its monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 44%, his weakest numbers since the onset of COVID-19 and a continuation of a downward trend since March. Anthony Albanese is steady on 40% approval and up one on disapproval to 36%. Essential’s numbers for both leaders are consistently more favourable than those for other pollsters. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 44-28 to 42-31, the narrowest it has been all term.

The federal government’s ratings for COVID-19 response have deteriorated after a three-month improving trend, down six on good to 41% and up seven on poor to 32%. The equivalent results for the states record a one point drop in the New South Wales government’s good rating to 54%, an eight point drop in the Victorian government’s rating to 43% and a three point drop for Queensland to 57%. The Western Australian government is up four to 78% and the South Australian government is down three to 57%, with due caution to the tiny sample sizes in these cases.

Respondents were asked about the Coalition’s performance on various matters since it came to power in 2013, and were interestingly given the opportunity to indicate whether the issue was important or unimportant to them in addition to evaluating the government’s performance. Its worst results came for handling sexual assault and misconduct, with 35% from the 50% who rated it poorly considering it an important issue, and handling of corruption allegations, rated likewise by 35% from 49%. However, the government now records neutral ratings on the vaccine rollout and is rated very favourably for the legalisation of same-sex marriage.

As it does at the end of each year, the pollster asked if had been a good or a bad year for various actors, with the federal government deemed to have had a good year by 34% and a poor year by 38%. Thirty-eight per cent considered it had been a good year for them and their family compared with 23% for poor; 37% rated their personal financial situation favourably compared with 30% for unfavourably. As usual, large companies and corporations were deemed to have done best of all, at 52% for good and 21% for poor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of around 1000.

Another poll worth noting is a Western Australian survey for Painted Dog Research, published today in The West Australian, which found more respondents considering the state’s recently announced opening up date of February 5 to be too soon (36%) than too late (18%), with 46% deeming it right. Mark McGowan was credited with a 77% approval rating, down from 88% in a previous survey in February. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 811.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,431 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and end-of-year review”

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  1. “On McGowan’s approval ratings: the 88% was recorded back in February, I presume during the state election campaign. Makes sense that a little gloss would have come off in the last ten months or so. 77% approval is still incredibly high for a leader who has been in office for nearly five years now”

    Barring covid McGowan has been an excellent right wing conservative Premier, perhaps the best we’ve ever had.

    Sadly when I campaigned with / for them I expected a centre / centre left govt that mighy actually use almost free capital to transition the WA economy, but no they have been more Wayne Swan paying off debt even if ordinary West Australians suffer. 0 stars would not recommend.

  2. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 12:48 pm
    “The parties do not have equal chances of winning. It is not a 50/50 game. In Australia, it has been about a 1/6 game for Labor since 1951 when they’ve been fighting from Opposition. This is the indisputable record. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to expect the odds in the forthcoming election to be any different.”

    One of the factors that has contributed to Labor’s failure to win elections has been the effect of splits on the plurality. Splits helped keep the Reactionaries in power in the 50s, 60s and early 70s. The plurality is split now. Neo-Groupers – tarted up in Green – are aiding and abetting the Reactionaries.

    There has been just one occasion since WW1 when Labor has won from Opposition while also split. That was in 1972. The current split will likely mean the Reactionaries continue to win. This is the singular contribution of the Greens to Australian political history: entrenched reactionary rule.

  3. Itza

    Hope you’re OK D&M.

    Definitely feeling better as the day goes on, and hopeful of a negative result by Friday, before we head up to Katoomba.

    But being confined to barracks has grown a spanner in the works!

  4. In Victoria unvaxxed cannot attend pubs, restaurants and cinemas.
    They can attend all other retail outlets.
    But like everybody has to wear a mask.

    Apart from masks, what differences are in place in NSW?

  5. “Firefox, I am particularly looking at you. ”

    ***

    Since you’re someone who votes for one of the establishment parties which props up capitalism and wilfully makes life harder for those doing it tough, your words mean little.

    It’s a long established fact that the Labor Right don’t give a rats about the people they claim to represent. All Labor cares about is getting themselves elected.

    Chile’s new leader cares about actually tackling inequality and doing something to address the climate emergency, which stands in stark contrast to Labor’s current position. Spare me your crocodile tears.

  6. Billie:

    Disappointed that Scotty from Marketing might walk away from yet another stuff-up

    _____________________________

    If the Liar can walk away because Omicron has far less impact that we fear I will not be disappointed at all. My biggest fear is that this does blow out and become another deadly wave of the epidemic, not that the Liar claims a lot of unwarranted credit for stuff others have done.

  7. As someone living in the West I have been out and about a lot over the last couple of months. The general consensus from the people I have talked to is that being covid free is by far more appealing than living with covid so you can travel to a plague riddled state. Some people would like to see a dedicated quarantine option to allow people to travel to see family and be able to return.
    In our immediate neighbourhood the number of campers and caravans has dramatically increased and the families that used to have a couple of weeks in Bali each year, or travel to the Gold Coast for holidays have in general enjoyed a simpler more family orientated holiday.
    My sons workmates are dreading February when they will have to don masks to work as they become very uncomfortable over. The length of the shift.
    While I was visiting the local hospital at least daily for six weeks I never saw any ramping of ambulances and although I had some concerns about the standard of care they were not related to staff shortages. The Perth hospital has become a weekly visit for me and the staff remain positive, friendly with no major wait times.
    I personally don’t know anyone looking forward to opening up.

  8. Victoria @ #256 Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021 – 1:00 pm

    In Victoria unvaxxed cannot attend pubs, restaurants and cinemas.
    They can attend all other retail outlets.
    But like everybody has to wear a mask.

    Apart from masks, what differences are in place in NSW?

    Victoria, the rules are here:
    https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/stay-safe/rules/people-in-nsw

    The main difference I see is that non vaccinated are off the leash – except for large music venues and some businesses.

  9. Douglas and Milko at 12:54 pm

    I can be very strident sometimes. I will take my correspondent’s role very seriously

    Excellent. We need some old school reporters who ‘tell it like it is’ rather than how ‘Rupert’ wants it 🙂 Plus reporters who actually have expertise in the topic they report on.

  10. billie @ Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 12:51 pm

    If omicron is a nothing burger, then I would be lining up to apologise for being overly concerned. Gauteng shows hospitalisation of 46% of the delta wave with 97% of the case load (with the usual caveats of not all cases being identified being the largest).

    Just think about that for a minute. With half the hospitalisation rate, if we go over double the caseload during the delta wave, we may have more than the delta hospitalisation numbers. Now, look at the COVID numbers in NSW. More importantly, take a look at the positivity rates. Byron hit 10% of test being positive last week! Ominous, and hence the move to at home GP-led care instead of centralised hospital in the home. The numbers are jumping and shall severely stress the health system and health professionals over the coming months.

    The good news is that the fatality rate is 7% of Delta, although yet to peak. We may get away with fewer deaths for this variant.

  11. Firefox @ #258 Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021 – 10:05 am

    “Firefox, I am particularly looking at you. ”

    ***

    Since you’re someone who votes for one of the establishment parties which props up capitalism and wilfully makes life harder for those doing it tough, your words mean little.

    It’s a long established fact that the Labor Right don’t give a rats about the people they claim to represent. All Labor cares about is getting themselves elected.

    Chile’s new leader cares about actually tackling inequality and doing something to address the climate emergency, which stands in stark contrast to Labor’s current position. Spare me your crocodile tears.

    So you have no desire to expand your knowledge and learn about new things.

    How sad.

  12. “As someone living in the West I have been out and about a lot over the last couple of months. The general consensus from the people I have talked to is that being covid free is by far more appealing than living with covid so you can travel to a plague riddled state.”

    I think so and the reality that even with vaccinations you are opening up to possible infection, two weeks of the worst flu you’ve ever had, or maybe a milder but long form of covid.

    And it is mainly business types and karens (of both genders) who just aren’t right if they haven’t spent three months of the year at their chateau in France.

  13. Firefox @ Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 1:05 pm

    “Since you’re someone that doesn’t agree with me, your words mean little.”

    There. Fixed it for you 🙂

  14. BiTB

    This undermines the idea of universal healthcare.

    On the plus side (for Bullshitman etc) it would make a lovely little foothold on where they’d love to take the healthcare system.

  15. “So you have no desire to expand your knowledge and learn about new things.”

    ***

    I have no desire to view the world from your narrow perspective, that’s for sure. I prefer to take a broader view.

  16. Making people personally responsible for health care, such as refusing free threatment for the unvaccinated, would be a something the right wingers who inspire the likes of Perrottet would love to see.
    There are plenty of IPA disciples in the Liberal Party who would jump on board this idea.

  17. WWP’s law: if you need to recharacterise someone else’s post rather than interact with it in an intelligent way someone who has graduated primary school should be able to then you’ve lost the debate.

  18. “Personal responsibility” includes not believing MSM fairy stories about “open borders” without checking the entry requirements yourself:

    Sunrise @sunriseon7

    “It certainly has been a challenge over the last couple of days”

    @QLDPolice Commissioner Katarina Carroll says hundreds of interstate travellers have been turned away at the border after not bothering to get a pre-departure test.

  19. From The Guardian Australia:

    Reporter: It safe to say Queensland is now holding the rest of the country ransom because this testing is causing angst amongst populations in NSW?

    NSW can FRO.

  20. “So Chile has replaced Biden as the great new Green hero but will this turn out any better.”

    ***

    Biden is a hero of conservatives and warmongers who reckon invading Iraq was a great idea, not the Greens. *shudder*

    But you’re certainly right about him not turning out well, that’s for sure. Understatement of the year. Totally predictable and expected though.

  21. “Oh, for Christ’s sake.

    If people don’t want to be subject to our entry requirements, they can stay the fuck home.”

    ***

    Yeah I’d be keeping that border shut if I were the QLD gov. And I say that as someone just on the other side of it who understands how much of a pain in the bum it is but thanks to the NSW gov being totally irresponsible at the moment they really don’t have a choice but to keep it shut IMO.

  22. D&M
    “Firefox, I am particularly looking at you. ”

    The bandwagon-jumping by FF is shamelessly opportunistic. Any individual deemed to have suitably “progressive” credentials (AOC, Sanders, Baerbock, Boric) is appropriated as a Green, irrespective of their actual affiliation. Everyone else is a neoliberal/capitalist villain.

  23. Victoria, a correction . . . .

    In Victoria (state)
    The unvaxxed can only enter supermarkets, pharmacists & petrol stations, they can only shop for essentials
    The unvaxxed can’t enter Myer, Bunnings, restaurants, cinemas.
    Myer & Bunnings pay mature people to check vax status

    Sorry you were right, I went into town on Monday, regulations changed Wednesday

    But yes it’s still face masks, QR check ins and keep your distance from cavalier superspreaders of your acquaintance

  24. ” Totally predictable and expected though”

    I think he has underperformed even the vague old man with penchant for sniffing hair and no real agenda or reason to be president standard.

    Truly abysmal, every dem that voted for Biden because he was ‘electable’ deserve the clusterfuck they are getting now and the end of functional democracy that will be sealed in the mid terms. Trump won’t even have to win the 2024 election it will be given to him not matter what the outcome is.

  25. Melissa Davey @MelissaLDavey

    Remember; Rapid antigen tests are a SCREENING tool, NOT a DIAGNOSTIC tool.

    Which Covid rapid antigen tests sold in Australia can you trust and what do they cost?

    Long lines at Covid testing sites have seen people turn to rapid antigen tests for convenient results in the lead-up to Christmas

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/22/which-covid-rapid-antigen-tests-sold-in-australia-can-you-trust-and-what-do-they-cost

  26. WeWantPaul @ #287 Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021 – 1:36 pm

    ” Totally predictable and expected though”

    I think he has underperformed even the vague old man with penchant for sniffing hair and no real agenda or reason to be president standard.

    Truly abysmal, every dem that voted for Biden because he was ‘electable’ deserve the clusterfuck they are getting now and the end of functional democracy that will be sealed in the mid terms. Trump won’t even have to win the 2024 election it will be given to him not matter what the outcome is.

    Because of feckless idiots, the equivalent of you, in America.

  27. WeWantPaul @ #285 Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021 – 10:36 am

    ” Totally predictable and expected though”

    I think he has underperformed even the vague old man with penchant for sniffing hair and no real agenda or reason to be president standard.

    Truly abysmal, every dem that voted for Biden because he was ‘electable’ deserve the clusterfuck they are getting now and the end of functional democracy that will be sealed in the mid terms. Trump won’t even have to win the 2024 election it will be given to him not matter what the outcome is.

    This highlights one of the problems for more progressive Governments.

    People expect everything to happen at once and if it doesn’t, they’re a failure.

  28. Kakuru @ #284 Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021 – 1:32 pm

    D&M
    “Firefox, I am particularly looking at you. ”

    The bandwagon-jumping by FF is shamelessly opportunistic. Any individual deemed to have suitably “progressive” credentials (AOC, Sanders, Baerbock, Boric) is appropriated as a Green, irrespective of their actual affiliation. Everyone else is a neoliberal/capitalist villain.

    It’s such unsophisticated, puerile stuff.

  29. “Biden is a hero of conservatives and warmongers who reckon invading Iraq was a great idea, not the Greens. *shudder*”

    For someone who is suppose to have a wide view of things, really should know that Biden is seen as communist by most of the conservative establishment.

  30. Nicko @ #294 Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021 – 1:41 pm

    “Biden is a hero of conservatives and warmongers who reckon invading Iraq was a great idea, not the Greens. *shudder*”

    For someone who is suppose to have a wide view of things, really should know that Biden is seen as communist by most of the conservative establishment.

    Yeah and that sort of simplistic analysis by Firefox (if it was him, I don’t know but it sure sounds like the schoolyard level taunt he retails), does the True Left who like to get into government every now and again, no favours whatsoever.

  31. WeWantPaul @ #286 Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021 – 12:36 pm

    Truly abysmal, every dem that voted for Biden because he was ‘electable’ deserve the clusterfuck they are getting now

    Pretty sure they voted for Biden because he was Not Donald Trump™. Unless you’re talking about Democratic primary voters. In which case, live in the past much? No sense talking primaries after the general has finished.

  32. “The bandwagon-jumping by FF is shamelessly opportunistic. Any individual deemed to have suitably “progressive” credentials (AOC, Sanders, Baerbock, Boric) is appropriated as a Green, irrespective of their actual affiliation. Everyone else is a neoliberal/capitalist villain.”

    ***

    I support people who are genuine progressives, regardless of which party or country they happen to be from – yes, that is correct.

    People like you on the other hand judge whether someone is a progressive by their affiliation and propaganda alone, not by their actual policies and positions.

  33. I’m all for vaccinations but think that expecting the unvaccinated to pay for health care is a step too far. We don’t make drunk drivers pay for their hospital stay. Many, many many years ago I worked nights on a plastic surgery ward, from Friday to Sunday we would admit dozens of patients, most frequently with hand or face injuries that were the result of fights. While it was annoying to spend hours caring for them when we had other patients requiring care as a result of ill health rather than stupidity, no one assumed they should pay for care.
    Universal health care should be universal and the government should not be using covid as an excuse to start unwinding our current system. Put in place masks, density limits, vaccination only crowds and act responsibly as leaders. A lot of NSW problems are of the governments own making so don’t make individuals carry the can.

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