Essential Research leadership ratings and end-of-year review

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings maintain a downward trend, as the government scores middling ratings for its overall performance for the year.

Essential Research has published its final fortnightly poll for the year, which includes its monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 44%, his weakest numbers since the onset of COVID-19 and a continuation of a downward trend since March. Anthony Albanese is steady on 40% approval and up one on disapproval to 36%. Essential’s numbers for both leaders are consistently more favourable than those for other pollsters. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 44-28 to 42-31, the narrowest it has been all term.

The federal government’s ratings for COVID-19 response have deteriorated after a three-month improving trend, down six on good to 41% and up seven on poor to 32%. The equivalent results for the states record a one point drop in the New South Wales government’s good rating to 54%, an eight point drop in the Victorian government’s rating to 43% and a three point drop for Queensland to 57%. The Western Australian government is up four to 78% and the South Australian government is down three to 57%, with due caution to the tiny sample sizes in these cases.

Respondents were asked about the Coalition’s performance on various matters since it came to power in 2013, and were interestingly given the opportunity to indicate whether the issue was important or unimportant to them in addition to evaluating the government’s performance. Its worst results came for handling sexual assault and misconduct, with 35% from the 50% who rated it poorly considering it an important issue, and handling of corruption allegations, rated likewise by 35% from 49%. However, the government now records neutral ratings on the vaccine rollout and is rated very favourably for the legalisation of same-sex marriage.

As it does at the end of each year, the pollster asked if had been a good or a bad year for various actors, with the federal government deemed to have had a good year by 34% and a poor year by 38%. Thirty-eight per cent considered it had been a good year for them and their family compared with 23% for poor; 37% rated their personal financial situation favourably compared with 30% for unfavourably. As usual, large companies and corporations were deemed to have done best of all, at 52% for good and 21% for poor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of around 1000.

Another poll worth noting is a Western Australian survey for Painted Dog Research, published today in The West Australian, which found more respondents considering the state’s recently announced opening up date of February 5 to be too soon (36%) than too late (18%), with 46% deeming it right. Mark McGowan was credited with a 77% approval rating, down from 88% in a previous survey in February. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 811.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,431 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and end-of-year review”

Comments Page 41 of 49
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  1. Big Data expert reveals election prediction for 2022

    A data scientist who was the only expert to correctly predict the last federal election believes Scott Morrison is on track to hold power.

    Bela Stantic of Griffith University on the Gold Coast believes if the election was held now the Prime Minister would win a narrow victory similar to last time around.

    Professor Stantic made headlines in 2019 when he went against all of the polls that predicted Labor’s Bill Shorten would beat Mr Morrison in the race for the Lodge.
    – – – – –
    Professor Stantic told Daily Mail Australia he recently conducted a ‘small’ analysis of 60,000 Twitter comments to survey the political mood.

    ‘Based on that I see the Coalition is ahead of the Opposition,’ he said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/big-data-expert-reveals-election-prediction-for-2022

  3. Thanks Cat. We will look at Telstra. Previously they had been provider non-grata to us for philosophical reasons. But I take your point about Indies. IINET were great until they were bought out by TPG. It has been downhill since.

  4. citizen at 8:25 am

    Morrison and Perrottet were going to “open up” the economy at Christmas with “freedom” for all.

    Yep, it was all about them being able to claim that THEY gave us a ‘Freedom’ Christmas and bugger the mess afterwards.

  5. PRGuy
    @PRGuy17
    ·
    23m
    “ANYTHING FOR A VOTE”: Scott Morrison has been slammed for joining Chinese social media giant TikTok over Christmas, despite warning Australians it “connects right back to Beijing” and his gov’t investigating TikTok over fears its data is used by the Chinese Government. #auspol

  7. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 7:00 am
    There’s still time to wear Morrison down wrt the other key indicators.
    _____________________
    Impossible on National Security. Who could ever forget Gillard sending a staffer to the briefings instead of going herself.

  10. …Who could ever forget Gillard sending a staffer to the briefings [on National Security] instead of going herself.

    Er… everybody?

    But seriously, right-wing Governments are very good at bellicose talk, shouting very loudly. “We warn the Tsar!” As to dealing with an actual existential threat, they’d be as utterly hopeless and clueless as they have proved in managing the Pandemic. Right-wing Governments don’t do stuff. Maybe Morrison would have to leave a war to the States to sort out, or fossil fuel industry executives.

  11. A no touch, outdoors and some masks Xmas. And it nearly didna happen with numerous peeps getting negative tests the night before and the day before that.

    Second most used word of the day – Marshall. Never in a good context.

    The stress ain’t over as a bunch more are getting tested today after onight notifications. Plenty of people there with vulnerabilities and waning vaxes. My booster is in a week. I think I will go into a cricket watching hermit status. Awful, I know.

    But hey. It could be worse. The birds are in full voice across the forest and some on the balcony. It isn’t blisteringly hot (yet). And the kids seemed to have a wonderful day.

    Hope all you bludgers are having a tops festivus. Serenity to you all.

  12. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 7:00 am
    There’s still time to wear Morrison down wrt the other key indicators.
    _____________________
    Possible on National Security. Who could ever forget Morrison lying about telling Macron the sub deal was cancelled instead of telling Macron the truth.

    Plus there is the 8 years of delay on subs the Coalition has already “achieved” and the fact we will now have RAN submariners in 40 year old boats before the nuclear boats are all in service.

    And then there is the massive screw-up of the Afghanistan evacuation, with hundreds of Australian embassy staff not getting visas before it was too late.

    Then we could talk about all the cost over-runs, and the failure to treat mental health adequately in Veterans. Lots of LNP defense failures to cover.

  13. Socrates @ #1998 Sunday, December 26th, 2021 – 7:10 am

    Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. I see most journos are on holidays!

    Its been a frustrating morning with email via our ISP (IINET) not working, and their home page not even loading; a voice message on the phone saying they have limited staff on duty over the break. I regret not leaving them when their service stopped for five days earlier in the year.

    So again a simple question – who would people recommend as an ISP with reasonable service in Adelaide? Xanthippe and I have a bundled deal with two mobiles, internet and Netflix via IINET/Vodaphone. Anything similar people would recommend?

    I have now been a happy Aussie Broadband customer for quite a while. They now offer bundled mobile plans as well. Australian company, now listed on the the stock exchange. Australian based support (not sure if even Telstra does this 100% now). They also have their own network that goes to the NBN interconnection points, so they are able to maintain better control than providers who simply resell Telstra or Optus central services. Also have won awards for customer service etc. Have never had any trouble with their service and they even kept me in the loop in relation to pressure they were putting on NBN when my local connection was dodgy.

  14. I notice that Morrison is losing Australian influence over the Solomon Islands. We were the go-to state when they needed international police support. Last year the Chinese tried to buy 99 year total development rights over the island of Tulagi. This was headed off by diplomatic pressure from the US and Australia.

    The Solomons are now accepting Chinese police for peace keeping and Chinese ‘mediation’.

    Now, most Australians have zero knowledge about Australia’s geopolitical realities: something about Morrison being a total hypocret on TikTok for the Chinese Australian vote, or pedophile refugees wasting away behind razor wire somewhere.

    So, here’s the issue. The Solomon Islands sit right across our re-supply routes with the United States. Not forgetting the wisdom of Morrison and Dutton in locating our strategic fuel supplies in the United States.

    The New Zealanders, who have been able to downsize their military spending on the basis that they are totally isolated from any potential strife, might also like to reconsider. The Solomons are closer to New Zealand than Australia is to New Zealand.

    Those who enjoy debating the disbenefits of transit times of Australian submarines will be heartened to know that the Solomons are vastly more accessible than the Straits of either Taiwan or Malacca.

  15. Its been a frustrating morning with email via our ISP (IINET) not working, and their home page not even loading; a voice message on the phone saying they have limited staff on duty over the break. I regret not leaving them when their service stopped for five days earlier in the year.

    It appears to be a fault in their data centre in Osborne Park.

    So again a simple question – who would people recommend as an ISP with reasonable service in Adelaide? Xanthippe and I have a bundled deal with two mobiles, internet and Netflix via IINET/Vodaphone. Anything similar people would recommend?

    I don’t know if many ISPs offer their own email service these days; with NBN and mobile networks, they are just on-selling an Internet connection so you can access Gmail etc.

  17. NSW has recorded 6,394 COVID-19 cases and zero deaths in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. Hospitalisations have jumped to 458.

  18. C@tmomma @ #1949 Saturday, December 25th, 2021 – 7:33 pm

    My mother told me today that COVID-19 was ‘just the flu’ because she read in a medical dictionary that it was a Coronavirus and the flu is a coronavirus, so, with the ‘brilliant’ deductive reasoning of someone who left school at 14, therefore COVID-19 is just another flu. Also because some ‘Virologist’ on facebook said so. 🙄

    Sometimes I despair of the direction human kind is heading in.

    C@t, you can assure her that Influenza is NOT a Coronavirus, so her whole argument falls to bits. Just google “Is infuenza a Coronavirus”

  19. Victoria has recorded 1,608 new local COVID-19 cases and two deaths. There are 374 people in hospital with COVID-19, 77 are in intensive care and 43 on a ventilator

    NSW has recorded 6,394 COVID-19 cases and zero deaths in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. Hospitalisations have jumped to 458, up from 388 yesterday; there are 52 patients in ICU

  22. I saw one of these in a shop several years ago (hummingbird with a large Elizabethan ruff):

    Ruff sketch: animal portraits in the style of old masters – in pictures

    Transforming pet photos into old masters is big business for Dutch artist Tein Lucasson. In 2016, when the Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam released many of its works into the public domain, Lucasson digitally inserted a photo of his beloved labradoodle Ventje into one of the paintings. Since then, the Dutch graphic designer and visual artist has turned hundreds of cats, dogs and guinea pigs into works of art for his website L’animorphe.

    These are collected, along with his portraits of wild animals such as zebras, flamingos and raccoons, in a series of books published by teNeues . “It started as something I did for fun and it turned into a company,” he says. “The portraits are not meant to be anything other than a remembrance of the love of a dog or a cat. But it’s turned into something bigger.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2021/dec/25/ruff-sketch-animal-portraits-in-the-style-of-old-masters-in-pictures

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Vy7_c7f8o

  23. Jaeger

    The need for Homo sapiens to project on pets and wildlife never ceases to amaze.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=image+of+half+man+half+horse&client=firefox-b-d&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=RITlkxksTQz0NM%252CUmmyG6f19–xaM%252C_%253BI_YyVGCVmHDoRM%252CUmmyG6f19–xaM%252C_%253BjpO3cy5xX3JJ4M%252CJ10r57RwciLL6M%252C_%253BxAbbmYI5xOxYSM%252C_fVXgYgOWpN56M%252C_%253B36SNDbGN0tYw8M%252CUmmyG6f19–xaM%252C_%253BN8n0FBFVP5bsHM%252CJ10r57RwciLL6M%252C_%253BRH6UR6sM-h6AKM%252CUmmyG6f19–xaM%252C_%253BqLola5Z1qICyJM%252CtZ6nBIBHzIxfUM%252C_%253BiIcb2Xr4V1K_9M%252CUbCaNQnNICjjYM%252C_%253Be_JFHIHa-r5EiM%252CmjW4Tj0KQhdcZM%252C_%253BT3EvAPovulchCM%252CjdTMohtmBD5fLM%252C_%253BGpuQ0HzhHF_r9M%252CJ10r57RwciLL6M%252C_%253BP9jE0Ioe2J6oiM%252CUmmyG6f19–xaM%252C_%253B2UEGpNQzyhTAwM%252CpydqwNHilAiJDM%252C_%253BiWEIanSuiQl9rM%252CQAg2KYI1bfaY4M%252C_%253B1LRkIAcAe1LNxM%252CY0aEWRIwEDjkFM%252C_%253BbXihyA1mMt_yCM%252CsSzCyhiPFe9_hM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kQvt-pbuDtflguGD1XpGb4nDvOmVQ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwia3Zbl_f_0AhXMzjgGHcjZB4MQ9QF6BAgDEAE#imgrc=RITlkxksTQz0NM

  24. NSW Covid hospitalisation numbers are doubling weekly (10% daily increase), Victorian hospitalisation numbers are stable. ICU and ventilation numbers are following a similar trend to hospitalisation.

  25. AJM, Jaeger

    Thanks for comments on ISPs.

    Further on the tendency of LNP governments to dress mutton as lamb when it comes to claiming the mantle of defense experts, the subs is another classic example of moving the goalposts so failure looks like success.

    The replacement boats were originally supposed to be in the water in 2026.
    Successive LNP defense ministers failed to do that. The date drifted to 2035.
    When announcing SSNs Scomo pushed the delivery date further out to 2040.
    Now Dutton says SSNs by 2035 is 5 years “early”.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10341127/Australia-nuclear-submarine-early-90billion-project-China-tensions-rise.html?ito=facebook_share_article-masthead

  28. @covidbaseau
    The World Health Organization back in 2020 set a 5% positivity rate benchmark. Across the pandemic, Australia has never come close to this (until now).

    5.84% of todays tests in NSW came back positive

  30. “ Plus there is the 8 years of delay on subs the Coalition has already “achieved” and the fact we will now have RAN submariners in 40 year old boats before the nuclear boats are all in service.”

    You’re out by 20 years. Even the most optimist projections will not see 6 nuclear boats into service under the AUKUS brain fart until 2060. The Collins class will be over 60 years old by then.

    Who can forget that the Howard government committed us to not one, but two, decade long conflicts with out troops being supplied with 40 year old APCs (which are still in service 20 years later, FFS!) – and both conflicts really really really needed the army to field good medium armour which we didn’t have.

    We have now run back to the Americans on helicopters, depriving us of both a decent medium sized airlift capacity (the Blackhawk can only take 11 soldiers and doesn’t have a rear ramp) or an attack/reconnaissance helicopter that is suitable for amphibious warfare (the Apache is too heavy and rusts).

    So far having fucked off Naval Group, Navantia, Konesberg and Airbus as long term prime contractors I suspect we are about to fuck off Rheinmetall as a prime contractor for the tracked IFV contract in favour of a Korean contractor that has a lot of American content in it. After Rheinmetall spent over a billion in establishing a production line in Ipswich for both the 8 wheeler Boxer AFV and the tracked Lynx IFV: Dutton and Defence have been leaking against Rheinmetall for months – just like they did with Naval Group and Airbus: their standard MO.

    The ‘end game’ for these shenanigans? Reduce our defence capability to being a mere division of the US Army on Land, and the ‘Southern Fleet’ of the USN at Sea. As a consequence, any pretence that we would do anything other than take dictation from the Americans on foreign policy evaporates. Just as America appears to be completely losing its shit as a nation state. National Security? How do you like them apples.

  31. So, what is the Morrison/Dutton/Payne scoresheet on national security?

    1. Loss of international soft power for serial undermining of activity on climate change.
    2. Loss of influence over Pacific Island nations.
    3. Enraged the state with the largest army in the world.
    4. Incurred around $20 billion loss in trade by way of sanctions.
    5. Created a massive gap in military capability by buggering up the submarines.
    6. Totally alienated a real ally with real military power and real estate in the Pacific – France.
    7. Reduced our sovereign power to make go-to-war decisions by allowing progressive basing of US troops and military equipment on Australian soil.
    8. Walked away from Taipans. Replacement to cost $7 billion for no additional capability. No replacements immediately available. Yet another capability gap generated by terrible mismanagement.
    9. Lost the Afghanistan War, emboldening terrorists around the world.
    10. Lost the Afghanistan War, enabling China to extend its influence into Afghanistan.
    11. Replaced all of the above with AUKUS – a Morrisonian bullshitburger than commits no-one to anything. There is no treaty, no signed bit of paper, nothing.
    12. Have so far embedded ourselves in the consciousness of the United States that the POTUS can’t remember Morrison’s name.
    13. Personality-wise, Morrison has tied himself to the political fortunes of Johnson and Trump.
    14. By way of the Kurds and by way of interpreters ditched in Afghanistan, alerted potential allies that they will be ditched ruthlessly when they are past their use-by date.
    15. Located our strategic fuel supplies on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

    Summary: Morrison, Dutton and Payne have left Australia in an immeasurably worse security situation than they inherited.

  32. billie says:
    Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 8:22 am
    Big Data expert reveals election prediction for 2022

    Broken clock tells correct time …..

    I think there is Data scientist who predicted property crash for the last 10 years also waiting for correct time

  33. The tone of Morrison’s Tik Tok is very childish. “Buddy has to go and wrap presents now.” Perhaps he’s aiming for the pre-school vote.

  34. Lars and Steve777

    I read the Bonham article on ‘why Resolve diverges.’

    It was written in September.

    So, on the basis of a September article, Lars informs us we passed ‘peak Albo’ in October, in December…

  35. China has been investing in its BRI for well over 10 years now, investing as it has to cement and improve its trade routes to its markets

    And the Australian government, which has withdrawn Regional support over the same period (even acknowledging China’s donor status so removing economic support for China on the DFAT site) has just learnt the consequence.

    The horse is long since bolted

  36. Boerwar, AE

    Lets not forget “Deputy Sheriff” Howard blindly following USA into Iraq, and indirectly causing the Syrian Civil War. Not seeing a lot of success there either.

    Have a good day all.

  43. IzzyNeel @ #1905 Sunday, December 26th, 2021 – 9:25 am

    Bela Stantic’s algorithm predicted Trump would win Minnesota last year…

    Exactly. Ascribing soothsaying powers based upon some Tweets, just because Stantic’s clock is right twice a day and one of those times happened to be the 2019 Australian election, is ‘interesting’ to say the least.

    However, I note that it’s been enough for the slimers to hang their slime on, predictably.

  44. There has recently been a marked diminution in Anti China rhetoric from senior Liberals. Someone would have drawn attention that it was costing them votes. Glug!

    So the cult of Morrison goes on TikTok. The medium is the message. The fact that he previously excoriated as a source of Chicom power is neither here nor there. That was then. This is now.

    They now have to sort out how to blame Labor for buggering up the relationship with the ChiCommies while putting upset Chinese Australians back to political sleep.

    Such is the state of play in the management of Australia’s foreign affairs and security policies.

  48. Socrates
    ISP’s really are a thing of the past. Phone and internet has merged. Phone system is now just another server.

    You are looking for a mobile phone and data package that suits your needs.

    You need to look at the network the service is ran on. For me the optus network is fine. I think there are places telsta is still better but i don’ t go there anymore

    I use Dodo. They offer a good pachage for me.

    For email i havr used a gmail address for decades

  50. France breaks 100,000 barrier for 24-hour Covid infections
    Officials have expressed concern over the rapid spread of the Omicron variant in France, which reported 104,611 cases over the previous 24 hours on Christmas Day
    https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/france-breaks-100000-barrier-for-24hour-covid-infections/news-story/7f1c92fdaa92b7fafe75fbab59b51dbf
    ____________________________________________________________

    UK Also above 100k, Italy 50k and going up, the other of concern is Cananda – 24k and ramping up.

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