What is presumably the last Morgan federal voting intention poll for the year maintains the recent trend of this series in favour of Labor with a 56.5-43.5 lead on two-party preferred, out further from 55.5-44.5 last time. Also as per usual with this series, this credits Labor with what seems an improbably strong flow of preferences, the primary votes being Coalition 34.5% (down one), Labor 36% (up half), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). A result is provided for the United Australia Party for the first time, and it’s all of 1%.
The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, for a swing to Labor of around 8% compared with the 2019 election; 58.5-41.5 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 5.5%); 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%); 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 6% and 64.5-35.5 in South Australia (out from 55.5-44.5, a swing of 14%). The Tasmanian result, from a particularly meagre sample, lands well off the path at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Liberals, a swing in their favour of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from an online and phone sample of 2805.
Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research survey, on this occasion offering neither voting intention nor leadership approval. The regular question on COVID-19 management found the federal government’s good rating up two to 47% and bad down four to 25%, its best result since July. The New South Wales government’s good rating was down one to 56%, Victoria’s was up one to 51%, Queensland’s was down four to 56%, South Australia’s was up nine to 60% and Western Australia’s was down five to 74%, small sample sizes being the order of the day in the case of the last few.
The poll also finds 34% agreeing with Scott Morrison’s attack on ICAC over Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation with 31% disagreeing and 36% on the fence. However, 53% supported the establishment of a federal commission, with no indication of how many were actively opposed. Other questions find 61% in favour of compulsory vaccination for all adults without a medical exemption, with only 20% opposed, and 28% support for the proposition that governments should on no account impose lockdowns, with 48% opposed. Forty-nine per cent want more evidence on omicron before changing requirements and restrictions, compared with 34% who want proactive tightening and 16% no change regardless. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
Also out this week was a Redbridge Group poll Victorian state poll for the Herald Sun that targeted eight marginal seats: Eureka (formerly Wendouree), Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo (formerly Yuroke) and Melton. This was rather less good for Labor than other recent polling, with primary votes of Labor 36% (down 9.5% from the results in these seats at the 2018 election, adjusted as appropriate for the new redistribution), Liberal 28.8% (down 2.3%), the Greens 8% (down 0.7%) and, strikingly 8% for the United Australia Party and 5% for One Nation, neither of whom contested last time, quite apart from an unchanged 11% for independents and other minor parties. The latter development makes preference projections particularly uncertain, but a result is provided of 54-46 to Labor, a swing against them of around 4%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28 from a sample of 2442.
I can confirm the beer at the Gabba is cold.
A Morrison critic says:
It was always going to come to this. Morrison’s characteristic, abrasive “interim CEO” style, where he clears the decks, sponsoring relative nobodies in return for their loyalty and obeisance, bypassing and thereby angering the established order, has struck again.
Right from when he jumped the queue in the Cook preselection, and even before that, when he was a clueless but confident bigwig at Tourism, Morrison has been a barger inner. It upsets people. They put up with it while he’s sort of successful, but as soon as it becomes apparent that he can’t even sell Lara Bingle in a bikini to 50 million shivering Poms, he’s out.
He has an incredibly inflated view of his own ability. But he doesn’t realise how intense and exhausting he is. Trying to follow Morrison’s thinking, the roller coaster ride he takes everybody on – whether they be friend or foe – is a wearying experience.
His tendencies to secretiveness and bullshit are deployed even when they are not necessary, because a bullshitter never wants you to know when you should absolutely be knowing whatever it is he doesn’t want you to know. If you can’t tell which lie is serious and which is just habit it gives the liar an advantage. The tactic even has a name: The Liar Paradox. Morrison is its living embodiment.
But ultimately, even supposed allies tire of hearing, “I’m lying to him of course, but I’d never lie to you, mate.” The basic consideration when transacting business with Morrison eventually becomes: “Is he going to betray me today, or tomorrow?”
Albo should repeat his character assessment of Morrison constantly.
“If you can’t trust what he said yesterday about today, how can you trust what he says today about tomorrow?”
Player One says:
Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 10:57 am
Bludging Bloos @ #94 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 10:46 am
Albo has form. He’s against deals.
Albo certainly does have form. He is nominally from the Left, but is leader by virtue of a deal he did with the Right.
Yes. He’s shown he can hold Labor together…to go to the election with a single voice and purpose. Albo is so very much more astute than his detractors suppose him to be. Labor have a better chance now than at any time since 2007. This is Albo’s achievement in the time of covid….remarkable.
Now, I don’t care whether you are from the Left or the Right … this is funny …
https://jacobinmag.com/2020/11/australian-labor-party-anthony-albanese-new-south-wales-right-wing-politics
… but of course, it is not all simply fun and games – there is a serious side as well …
What is it about Terrigal???
1/6 Committee Drops Subpoena Bomb On Rally Planners Who Talked To Trump
The Select Committee issued subpoenas for records and testimony from six individuals.
Robert “Bobby” Peede, Jr. and Max Miller met with the former President in his private dining room off the Oval Office on January 4th, 2021 to discuss the January 6th Ellipse rally and the speakers at the rally.
Brian Jack was the Director of Political Affairs for the former President on January 6th and reportedly reached out to several Members of Congress on behalf of the former President to ask them to speak at the Ellipse on January 6th.
Bryan Lewis obtained a permit for a rally outside the U.S. Capitol on January 6th to “urge congress to nullify electoral votes from states that made illegal changes to voting rules during their elections.”
Ed Martin was an organizer of the Stop the Steal movement and was involved in the planning and financing the Stop the Steal protest on January 6th that directly preceded the attack on the Capitol.
Kimberly Fletcher and her organization, Moms for America, helped organize the January 5th rally at Freedom Plaza and January 6th rally at the Ellipse supporting the former President Trump’s allegations of election fraud.
Some of the witnesses we subpoenaed today apparently worked to stage the rallies on January 5th and 6th, and some appeared to have had direct communication with the former President regarding the rally at the Ellipse directly preceding the attack on the U.S. Capitol.”
One suspects that the Committee is looking at the potential for Trump being the hub of the coup plot. The investigation is targeting people who probably aren’t willing to go to jail for Trump and likely lack the resources to engage in a prolonged court fight.
I was correct that Biden would win the presidency.
I am now saying that Trump will be found to have been a traitor and even his most ardent followers will turn away when everything is exposed.
He will not be the nominee for 2024.
Time will tell if I am correct.
PhoenixRed
Wait till it is exposed who conducted the tours of the Capitol before the insurrection.
Fun times ahead.
Now here’s a weird fish.
.
Macropinna microstoma: A deep-sea fish with a transparent head
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM9o4VnfHJU
No one gives a shit, except you.
Interesting that it took Macron, an outsider (outside Australia, outside the Canberra bubble) to call out Morrison in the clearest terms, and how that opened the ‘liar’ floodgates.
It really was a pivotal moment, the polls and personal ratings turned to hell for Morrison after that.
Bushfire Bill @ #109 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:22 am
Don’t tell me. Player One? Not that I live in Terrigal. Our candidate does. He’s a proud Wiradjuri Man and a doctor who works in a Public Hospital.
I guess that makes Player One’s conversion to a Liberal complete. Mocking a candidate who is Indigenous and a proud defender of our Public Health system.
Victoriasays: Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 11:18 am
PhoenixRed
Wait till it is exposed who conducted the tours of the Capitol before the insurrection.
Fun times ahead.
********************************************
The phone records of Lauren Boebert and Marjory T Green, amongst others, might be quite revealing to the communications between those IN and those OUTSIDE the White House – before and on Jan 6 ……
I think it’s still too early to make any hard speculation about the 2024 US Presidential Election. A lot can happen over the next few years.
Around this time in Obama’s first term, people were talking about Sarah Palin’s inevitable 2012 candidacy, due to her rising prominence in being a leader in the Tea Party movement (as well as being McCain’s running mate, of course) and there was a lot of hand-wringing over Obama being on-track to lose in 2012, due to the mobilisation of his opposition and poor electoral results in the 2010 midterms (as well as the 2009 VA and NJ gubernatorial elections.)
And, at this time around 2013, I don’t recall anybody realistically discussing Donald Trump as the next President. Heck, not many people imagined Biden having a comeback after his VP term ended.
My point is a lot can happen and change.
C@tmomma @ #111 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:33 am
Un. Be. Lievable.
Torchbearer @ #110 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:24 am
‘I don’t think. I know.’ 🙂
phoenixRED @ #112 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:34 am
Paul Gosar, Louie Gohmert, Matt Gaetz, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Jim Jordan especially.
Terrigal used to be a tourist hot spot in the 1970s and Labor party conferences used to be hosted there. I think. All of this predates Eddie Obeid by ages. I’ve long since lost track of why political journos are fascinated with the place.
And, to be brutally honest, any journo blathering about Terrigal on 2021 is providing a reminder that they are living in the past as a substitute for holding the current, decade old, government to account.
Foxtel’s cricket coverage is having technical difficulties so I went over to channel 7. Who should be standing there talking about the game but James Brayshaw. I lasted 5 seconds!
Torchbearer
“Interesting that it took Macron, an outsider (outside Australia, outside the Canberra bubble) to call out Morrison in the clearest terms, and how that opened the ‘liar’ floodgates.
It really was a pivotal moment, the polls and personal ratings turned to hell for Morrison after that.”
I agree. I think all of Morrison’s local critics could be written off as party political foes. Whereas that wasn’t the case with Macron. Then when Morrison’s version of events started to unravel even Biden and Johnson would not come to Morrison’s aid, implicitly confirming Macron was the one telling the truth.
Victoria:
Trump’s base has ignored every other awful thing he has said and done, why would they care what comes out in the Jan 6 investigations? It’ll just be more fake news to them, and even if they do believe it, most will probably think he was an American hero for encouraging the insurrection.
I’m sorry, but I’ve been reading excited predictions that Trump is about to go down for near five years now.
My own prediction is this: The evidence that comes about Trump’s role in the attempted coup will be utterly damning, proving beyond doubt that he is culpable. And the bulk of the Republican Party will not give a shit in the slightest. Trump’s lawyers will use every trick in the book to delay any potential arrest or trial until long after Trump – and, quite possibly, all the rest of us – have died of old age. He will run for the Republican nomination in 2024 and win easily.
Now, it is quite plausible that these revelations make it near impossible for Trump to win the general election. (Though I wouldn’t put money on that!) But I’d be stunned if after everything, a bit of light treason is what makes the base abandon him.
Now, the fact that he continues to be pro-vaccine, on the other hand? That could potentially give him trouble!
BK,
Dutton has released a Press statement blaming the Chinese.
We also don’t know how the Australian federal election campaign will play out, despite all the tales of Coalition disorganisation and internecine warfare in NSW that we keep reading about.
As Paul Bongiorno quotes a senior Liberal, all they need to swing things around is that:
“Scott’s only hope,” the Liberal operative says, “is for Hirsty to come up with two or three really bleak and nasty ads targeting Albanese and give them saturation media.”
Fear has always been a powerful motivator in election campaigns and the Liberals’ federal director, Andrew Hirst, would need no convincing.
However, as Bongiorno also points out, this time Labor have plenty of fertile material to use against Morrison as well.
Cat, re Terrigal – it’s best not to respond to posts you haven’t read.
BK @ #118 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:39 am
You would have lasted 1 second if it was Scott Morrison. 😀
Asha @ #120 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 10:42 am
Your sense of proportion is broken. You keep confusing vocal minorities with majorities. First Trumpists, and then anti-vaxxers. Neither group is large, or popular. They’re both just very loud. But don’t mistake loudness for size, popularity, credibility, or electability.
Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis Memos Are Evidence Of Trump Treason Plot
In the Jan. 5 memo, Ellis argued that key provisions of the Electoral Count Act — limiting Pence’s authority to affirm or reject certain electors — were likely unconstitutional. She concluded that Pence while presiding over lawmakers’ counting of electors, should simply halt the process when their alphabetical proceeding reached Arizona
Then, she said, he should declare that the state failed to meet the legal standard for certifying its own electors and “require the final ascertainment of electors to be completed before continuing.”
A picture of a treasonous plot is beginning to emerge. One of the key questions that the 1/6 Committee is investigating is did Trump and his allies embrace violence as a last resort after all of their other efforts failed?
Instead of talking about criminal charges, it is time for the American people to consider the possibility of treason.
https://www.politicususa.com/2021/12/10/jenna-ellis-memos-are-evidence-of-trump-treason-plot.html
Fulvio Sammut @ #123 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:45 am
I’ll go read it then.
Greensborough Growler @ #121 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:43 am
Ah! The day of the week must end in a ‘y’!
Fulvio Sammut says:
Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 11:45 am
Cat, re Terrigal – it’s best not to respond to posts you haven’t read.
________________________________
Good point. I remember once responding to something you posted in response to something else. I hadn’t read the trail and finished up accidentally insulting Lizzie, who quite rightly took umbrage.
Learnt my lesson.
I mostly scroll over P1 now, having finally learnt that P1 not only doesn’t change their position on anything but doesn’t even change the commentary. Irritating to have to do it, but better than getting triggered by the same stuff that I’ve responded to seriously in the past only to get a cult-like response.
FS,
Thanks. Player One using the Hard Left, Jacobin mag and its muck-raking, to try and throw shit at Anthony Albanese, hoping it will stick.
Typical tactics of the Liberal Party. Use the Lunatic anti-democratic Left to attempt to knobble the sensible Centre Left in order to try and hold them back from taking power.
Now, something that Jacobin mag and Player One will never tell you. The ICAC, when they investigated Ian McDonald and Eddie Obeid, found ZERO evidence of complicity, crime or corruption wrt Anthony Albanese. And they looked.
And my criticism of Player One wrt our candidate for Robertson still stands. Criticising the ALP by bringing up Terrigal, is just a slimy way of also attacking our current candidate.
A R:
The Republican base is a vocal minority, increasingly so as the nutters scare off the saner conservatives.
I’m not talking about Trump’s chances in the presidential election, but in the primaries. About 30 million people voted in the 2016 Republican primaries – roughly 15 million for Trump – compared to nearly 130 million in the presidential election (which was only a bit over half of eligible voters in the US.)
This is even assuming the GOP even have democratic primaries come 2024 rather than just annointing Trump their Emperor for Life.
Dutton has released a Press statement blaming the Chinese.
____
GG
I wouldn’t put it past him!
Paddy Cummins you star!
BK @ #118 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:09 am
Ugh. He’s so grating. It’s like listening to an excited child doing commentary.
I think it’s still too early to make any hard speculation about the 2024 US Presidential Election. A lot can happen over the next few years.
Around this time in Obama’s first term, people were talking about Sarah Palin’s inevitable 2012 candidacy, due to her rising prominence in being a leader in the Tea Party movement (as well as being McCain’s running mate, of course)
Sarah Palin was thick as a brick. Even Republicans at Fox were quietly trying to push her off the stage before announcing she wouldn’t be a candidate in 2012. Even her home state of Alaska is well and truly over the hype. A poll voters when floated her being a senate Alaska candidate was overwhelming negative to the idea of Palin running.
John McCain regretted selecting her, and Steve Schmidt who advised McCain to select her has spoken openly of what a mistake it was. Palin also wasn’t invited to McCain funeral. It was a sign that while Palin was never really close to McCain after there US election campaign. The family wanted to airbrush her from McCain’s history as they knew McCain wouldn’t have wanted her there. According to John’s widow Cindy McCain, Palin never bothered to communicate at all when McCain announced his illness. So why would they invite her.
Ugh. He’s so grating. It’s like listening to an excited child doing commentary.
____
Brayshaw gets excited listening to his own voice. An ultra-annoying narcissist.
C@tmomma @ #130 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:56 am
Doubling down on stupidity is not generally a winning strategy, C@t.
This is a very good Letter to the Editor from The Saturday Paper:
The PM is in a confused state
It’s clear from your editorial (“The smallest man in the room”, December 4-10) and other articles that Scott Morrison is incapable of taking in the big picture and has a very poor understanding of state and federal functions and how relevant, or often irrelevant, his pronouncements on them are. The establishment of concrete state emissions targets does, indeed, make all the ballyhoo about federal 2050 targets look pretty dopey; however, there are more dangerous rumblings on the horizon. The federal bean-counters appear to have overlooked that combined state–federal debt has already passed $1 trillion and looks set to reach $2 trillion by 2024-25, giving us a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 80 per cent – anything more than 60 per cent is disastrous. Good luck with the responsible economic management campaign.
– Bruce Hulbert, Lilyfield, NSW
Player One says:
Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 11:12 am
Now, I don’t care whether you are from the Left or the Right …
….is prehistoric….
Arcane tales that 44 years old mean sfa …absolutely sfa
Bludging Bloos:
Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 10:42 am
[‘His leadership is purely titular now. He’s cactus.’]
Agree. I think he’s dead in the water and the more he peddles his BS, the more his lack of depth and vision will be confirmed in the electorate. I’m looking foward to his concession speech.
It has been a pleasure to watch the relaxed, masterful performance behind the stumps from Alex Carey.
BK @ #141 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 12:16 pm
—
Yes you forget he is new to the squad, very confident and assured. This Test could be over today.
Quite a sombre second assignment as Foreign Minister for Baerbock…
Hitler’s horrific legacy is one awfully big responsibly. I think modern Germany is to be a applauded for how they don’t shy away from it. It would be easier for them to forget about it, to not own what they didn’t do themselves, but they don’t.
EB @ #142 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:54 am
It most definitely will be. While Australia are going to have to bat again (the scores just levelled as I am typing this), I don’t imagine the target will be that high.
Dandy Murray:
Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 11:10 am
[‘I can confirm the beer at the Gabba is cold.’]
Enjoy it while you can.
________________________________________
poroti:
When the election result is analysed, I have a strong feeling that Berejiklian’s absence in the campaign will prove to be crucial in Morrison’s defeat. I find it rather strange that there’s been scant
in-depth analysis by journos of this very issue.
Firefox
Future Chancellor right there 🙂
“Yes you forget he is new to the squad, very confident and assured. This Test could be over today.”
I think the take away from this test is just how well the Australians have performed in various new roles. And the Poms have actually made us bat again so saved themselves some humiliation. Going to be interesting to see if they do take a few wickets in the Aust second innings? 🙂 Warner is the type who could either smash it finished in two overs, or go for a duck. 🙂
Maybe the Poms are praying to the rain doGs???
At least the Poms look like they can survive innings defeats anyway. Might make the matches last longer.
BK @ #136 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 12:07 pm
A blight on any cricket commentary he’s in on.
Such a shame the power outage at the Gabba didn’t take out the commentary instead of the cameras!