Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor

The last Morgan poll for the year maintains its recent form with a huge lead for Labor. Also: the fortnightly Essential Research and more Victorian state polling.

What is presumably the last Morgan federal voting intention poll for the year maintains the recent trend of this series in favour of Labor with a 56.5-43.5 lead on two-party preferred, out further from 55.5-44.5 last time. Also as per usual with this series, this credits Labor with what seems an improbably strong flow of preferences, the primary votes being Coalition 34.5% (down one), Labor 36% (up half), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). A result is provided for the United Australia Party for the first time, and it’s all of 1%.

The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, for a swing to Labor of around 8% compared with the 2019 election; 58.5-41.5 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 5.5%); 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%); 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 6% and 64.5-35.5 in South Australia (out from 55.5-44.5, a swing of 14%). The Tasmanian result, from a particularly meagre sample, lands well off the path at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Liberals, a swing in their favour of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from an online and phone sample of 2805.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research survey, on this occasion offering neither voting intention nor leadership approval. The regular question on COVID-19 management found the federal government’s good rating up two to 47% and bad down four to 25%, its best result since July. The New South Wales government’s good rating was down one to 56%, Victoria’s was up one to 51%, Queensland’s was down four to 56%, South Australia’s was up nine to 60% and Western Australia’s was down five to 74%, small sample sizes being the order of the day in the case of the last few.

The poll also finds 34% agreeing with Scott Morrison’s attack on ICAC over Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation with 31% disagreeing and 36% on the fence. However, 53% supported the establishment of a federal commission, with no indication of how many were actively opposed. Other questions find 61% in favour of compulsory vaccination for all adults without a medical exemption, with only 20% opposed, and 28% support for the proposition that governments should on no account impose lockdowns, with 48% opposed. Forty-nine per cent want more evidence on omicron before changing requirements and restrictions, compared with 34% who want proactive tightening and 16% no change regardless. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.

Also out this week was a Redbridge Group poll Victorian state poll for the Herald Sun that targeted eight marginal seats: Eureka (formerly Wendouree), Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo (formerly Yuroke) and Melton. This was rather less good for Labor than other recent polling, with primary votes of Labor 36% (down 9.5% from the results in these seats at the 2018 election, adjusted as appropriate for the new redistribution), Liberal 28.8% (down 2.3%), the Greens 8% (down 0.7%) and, strikingly 8% for the United Australia Party and 5% for One Nation, neither of whom contested last time, quite apart from an unchanged 11% for independents and other minor parties. The latter development makes preference projections particularly uncertain, but a result is provided of 54-46 to Labor, a swing against them of around 4%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28 from a sample of 2442.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,023 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor”

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  1. Hi William. Presumably, at some point, these numbers will filter into Bludger track and nudge up Labor’s lead. I cannot easily find an explanation of how you use the raw polling data and the weighting giving to different polls in Bludgertrack. Perhaps at some point you could provide us with an update on the Bludgertrack methodology, and how you see the current polling situation compared with the position in December 3 years ago.

  2. State Vic Labor in some marginal seats, 2PP: 54-46 to Labor…..

    Pretty good, eh?…. “Chairman Dan”…. “Freedom”… blah, blah…. All propaganda crap, with no real political effect. Well, of course, it’s Victoria, the second most Progressive jurisdiction in Australia (the first one being the ACT).

  3. “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor”….

    Well, it won’t happen to that extent, but please allow me to imagine that this is the 2PP on election night…. Electoral Armageddon is exactly what Scomocchio the Liar and his Gang of deluded Trumpists deserve!!…. An average loss would not be fair enough, given the damage done by this mob to the country.

  4. Those WA results are interesting. No doubt off a small sample but it seems to me, with my tea leaves reading hat on, that there might be a few people over there who had plans to fly east for Xmas and now can’t due to the hard border and thus are none too happy about their plans being shelved. I can’t think of anything else which would have seen the numbers there turn around in two separate polls like that.

  5. “Outsidersays:
    Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 5:54 am
    Hi William. Presumably, at some point, these numbers will filter into Bludger track and nudge up Labor’s lead.”…

    Yes, I have been also wondering about that, and it looks like William doesn’t quite trust the numbers coming from Morgan (to be frank, I also find that Morgan’s 2PP swings a bit too much). For instance, I don’t see the previous 55.5% point for the ALP in the graph. Maybe the methodology was explained at some point in time, but a little reminder may help.

  6. Scott Morrison has always needed Gladys Berejiklian more than she’s needed him.

    As a freshly installed Prime Minister facing what many thought was an unwinnable election, he flung himself onto her election party coat-tails as the then-NSW premier pulled off an unexpected victory in 2019.

    He would pull her close again a year later as the nation plunged into the unknown depths of the coronavirus pandemic, fresh from Morrison having having been singed from both a Hawaiian holiday as the nation burned and the sports rorts scandal.

    Leveraging Berejiklian’s personal popularity with punters has always been politically opportunistic, made more interesting by the fact that from many accounts the two could barely stand each other.

    Enter Warringah. It had been a safe Liberal seat for decades in the hands of Tony Abbott — and a desperate Morrison was keen to see it brought back into the fold.

    But this wasn’t about getting a new job for a person he often tells the media is a close friend. The PM’s now-failed bid to get Berejiklian to Canberra had a much more selfish goal: keeping his own job.

    Hard to argue with that! Zali Steggall will be breathing a sigh of relief too that Gladys isn’t running.

  7. Health Minister Greg Hunt has announced restrictions on Australia’s international borders have been extended until February 2022.

    The extension of the human biosecurity emergency period – which has been in place since March 2020 – allows the Commonwealth government to keep “important” COVID suppression measures in place.

    Mr Hunt said the extension until February 17, 2022 will assist Australia’s reopening effort and the response to the “emergence of the Omicron variant”.
    Four existing emergency measures to remain in place

    The extension of the biosecurity emergency period will mean the continuation of:

    Mandatory pre-departure testing and mask wearing for international flights
    Restrictions on international travel from high-risk countries
    Restrictions on outbound international travel for unvaccinated Australians; and
    Restrictions on the entry of cruise vessels within Australian territory (reviewed monthly).

  8. States-level results:

    “The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales …. 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%)”…

    Those are the numbers that I want to see: A solid Labor win in both NSW and Queensland, especially with a very substantial swing in Queensland. Again, nothing of that is guaranteed, but Labor knows where to put the effort to spread the word across the electorate. Queensland is my major focus and the larger the swing here the more devastating the Coalition loss will be. Incidentally, I have just bought three tickets for a raffle (prize: Kevin Rudd’s signed books) that the Queensland branch of the ALP is organising as a fundraiser for the Federal election campaign….

  9. An interesting story about how Morrison and Alex Hawke have lost control of the party, using the local govt elections in NSW as a barometer of things to come: factionalism, inability to field candidates, tribalism and rank incompetence have contributed to several councils in NSW losing their Liberal elected members.

    And apparently it all comes down to NSW.

    And this has major ramifications for the upcoming federal election, which will be all about NSW.

    “The only pathway to winning – and it’s very narrow – is to gain ground in NSW,” says one Liberal Party numbers man. “And by gaining ground, I don’t just mean picking up one or two seats; I mean probably five.”

    He foresees a “train wreck” in Western Australia. At the state level, the party was all but wiped out at the March state election. It will possibly lose as many as three seats there in the federal poll.

    “Victoria remains a massive challenge,” he says. “And it’s a possibility we’ll lose a seat or two in South Australia and Tasmania.”

    A couple of seats in Queensland are also looking shaky.

  10. Morning all. The poll is interesting. Aside from anything else the Scomo attempt to force States to “open up” has backfired. Friends who had waited months to stage their recent wedding in SA with interstate visitors had to cancel their honeymoon in WA due to SA cases and reimposed travel restrictions. They joked about it but it was making the best of an annoying situation.

  11. That ‘God or Labor’ strategy runs hard up against the Liberals recent screwing down of Western Sydney versus a more laissez faire approach to the Eastern and Northern areas. The recent mail is that the people out there aren’t going to just throw over their vote from Labor to Liberal because one party throws money at them now and is led by a Pentecostal.

  12. On independents:

    ‘Certainly, the prominent ones are espousing action on climate change, though not, as far as I know, with specific, detailed and costed policies. This would in any rational universe lead them to support Labor, but who knows? On just about any other matter, they may have a range of views. Will they cross the floor if they don’t like particular policies? Will they force a vote of no confidence, and bring down the government? If Labor introduces, say, free childcare, are they going to support it? Or are some of them going to argue it’s economically irresponsible? How about changes to industrial legislation? Or taxation? If the government – Labor or Liberal – has to negotiate on each and every piece of legislation with each and every independent, sound government will become impossible.’

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Peter Hartcher begins his contribution with, “Barnaby Joyce left the country with a clear mission in mind but now finds himself isolating in an American hotel room for 10 days. In some ways the Deputy Prime Minister’s situation is a metaphor for Australia’s.”
    Mike Seccombe wonders if Scott Morrison has lost control of his party.
    John Hewson has clearly had enough of the economic BS emanating from Morrison and Frydenberg.
    Michael Koziol has a look behind Morrison’s ‘Gladys for Warringah’ push. And Morrison is still banging on about ICAC being a “kangaroo court”.
    As Berejiklian liberates herself from the republic of Warringah, major parties may face an even crosser bench, writes Malcolm Knox.
    Gladys for Warringah is the latest salvo in Morrison’s insidious war against an integrity commission, says Katherine Murphy in a powerful contribution.
    Tony Windsor has written a letter to future independents.
    John Alexander wants the attorney-general to build a new cross-party integrity commission, worried the issue will ‘end up like climate change’, writes Karen Middleton.
    Paul Kelly reckons that all the pressure’s on Labor to recapture its shifting heartland.
    Paul Bongiorno writes about the shine well and truly having come off Scott Morrison and how many in the Coalition are fearing the worst.
    Paul Karp writes about conspiracy, Covid and the Coalition, and why more of its MPs are appealing to the alt-right.
    The Liberal Party is seeking to shore up Jewish community support in key vulnerable federal seats in Sydney and Melbourne, with a heavily funded online attack ad against Labor over Israel. Spending on the ad has outstripped almost all other Liberal spots so far, explains Karen Middleton.
    Peter van Onselen examines the various scare campaigns that have been used in previous elections.
    Ross Gittins advises us that we shouldn’t let any politician convince us that our taxes will be going down. Worth reading.
    Australia’s fertility rate has plummeted to record lows, leaving policymakers facing the question of how to deal with the economic consequences of smaller families, explains Ronald Mizen.
    The AFR’s editorial says that inheritance is important for Australian families, but it skews an already generationally unfair tax system. Fixing it could play a role in broader tax reform too.
    The number of Australians challenging National Disability Insurance Agency decisions has exploded since July, with new data revealing a 300% increase in legal appeals. Luke Henriques-Gomes writes that, as the Morrison government confronts Labor claims about “stealth cuts” to funding packages, figures obtained by Guardian Australia confirm a huge rise in applications to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal over NDIS decisions.
    It seems the Prime Minister is blaming the choice of tyres while ignoring Team L-NP’s overall poor performance in this electoral race, writes Joel Jenkins.,15836
    Dana Daniel tells us that the federal government will commission an independent review of the $61.4 million-a-year school chaplaincy scheme, as chaplains defend their role as preventative mental health workers while backing calls for more school psychologists.
    Lucy Carroll takes us inside Sydney’s ultra-secure lab where scientists are putting Omicron through its paces.
    Public health experts in Victoria have called for more testing sites to open and for a greater reliance on home rapid tests to deal with demand.
    The AFR tells us that a Victorian barrister who is fighting the corporate watchdog’s decision to ban him from directing companies, is allegedly at the heart of an international criminal syndicate running a fraudulent bond fund scam that has laundered millions through Australia’s crypto system.
    Gerard Henderson directs his weekly whine at Simon Holmes a Court and his Climate 200 movement.
    Democracies must deliver for their own people and they must rediscover a formula for social harmony and economic prosperity. To do so, they have to lift their game, says the SMH editorial.
    In her weekly media roundup, Amanda Reade tells us that the ABC and News Corp journalists have condemned Friendlyjordies’ verbal attack on Nicolle Flint.
    Will Rex Patrick have a run in the federal seat of Grey?
    The latest Tax Office transparency report shows the oil and gas juggernauts are, again, Australia’s biggest tax grifters. Callum Foote and Michael West report on the good and the bad in multinational tax-dodging land.
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that some top Chinese executives will meet with their Australian counterparts for the first time in years as business leaders attempt to find a way through a hostile diplomatic environment that has hit Australia with $20 billion in trade strikes.
    The arguments about abortion in the US are about one thing: controlling women, argues Rebecca Solnit.
    “The truth is, China will stop at nothing until the West is lost”, writes Greg Sheridan.
    Instead of resolving questions about the fate of the Chinese behemoth, Everglade, the announcement that it has defaulted has only deepened them, explains The New York Times.
    Cloe Read reports on the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide yesterday and finds plenty of nominees for “Arseholes of the Week” nomination.

    Cartoon Corner

    Jon Kudelka

    Alan Moir

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding

    Jim Pavlidis

    John Shakespeare

    Warren Brown’

    Mark David

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Davidson

    Glen Le Lievre

    David Pope

    Robin Cowcher


    From the US

  14. …when people say things like “Oh, but the Libs aren’t polling as badly in WA at a federal level…’ it simply shows a poor understanding of how things work on the ground.

    Losing MPs means losing resources, personpower and voices.

    Losing a high profile MP such as Christian Porter, for example, means there’s one less VIP to invite to party fundraisers, which means less money for candidates, and fewer opportunities to attract people to the party. It makes it harder for candidates on the ground to get media attention.

    (Not saying these are bad things from a Labor point of view, of course…)

  15. The Assange extradition could roll out for a few more years.

    He may get to the point that he will spend more time in custody awaiting extradition than a sentence he may get if convicted in the US.

  16. C@tmomma @ #15 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 7:34 am

    That ‘God or Labor’ strategy runs hard up against the Liberals recent screwing down of Western Sydney versus a more laissez faire approach to the Eastern and Northern areas. The recent mail is that the people out there aren’t going to just throw over their vote from Labor to Liberal because one party throws money at them now and is led by a Pentecostal.

    i hope your right Cat.

  17. The other difficulty in extradition is that there’s always an assumption between friendly nations that their systems of laws are sufficiently compatible that moving a suspect from one jurisdiction to the other carries with it little risk for the rights of the suspect.

    Here the trial judge found a risk and the the US was allowed to put on more evidence in the appeal (not normally allowed) to mitigate the risk.

  18. In another unsurprising relevation.
    December was always going to be consequential in this space.


    BREAKING: trump met privately with rally organizers in the White House January 4th according to subpoenas issues by the 1/6 committee today.

  19. No reporting on the Coroner Inquiry in Victoria?

    Where the Federal government did nothing for 4 days after St Basil’s reported an infected worker to them

    Then concluded all practices were perfect after a quick visit by the Chief Nurse reporting back to the CHO in Canberra

    And this was only one of the private businesses under Federal control where there were multiple deaths (the State forced to take control from the Feds to fix the problems, which they did)

    Funny about no reporting

    And the Greens on here would have that climate is the only life and death issue of our time

  20. The Supreme Court on Friday left in place a Texas law that bans most abortions after six weeks, and provided only a narrow path for abortion providers to challenge what is the nation’s most restrictive law on the procedure.

    The court’s splintered decision allows the providers to return to a district judge who once blocked the law, saying it violated the constitutional right to abortion.

    But abortion providers and abortion rights advocates were pessimistic about the amount of relief the judge could provide. They said the conservative majority’s decision to leave in place a law that four of its members say is unconstitutional is more consequential for Texas and the rest of the nation.

  21. Hi Socrates, have a look at Ovo energy. We have been happy with their price and service, and I prefer their monthly billing rather than quarterly also.

  22. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has finished at a record high, shrugging inflation concerns

    Pity the ASX, down 3% from August, is not following the lead

  23. Observer

    Reporting the state govt aspect of the st basil tragedy was in full swing until it was obvious that the feds were in the frame for failing the residents on so many levels.

    From recollection, it had been reported at the time of the initial outbreak, that the facility was not being managed properly at all anyway.
    Very sad if true.

  24. Omicron is said to be a mild form of the disease. We should know more within a week.

    But in any event, Australians due for their booster should not hesitate to get it now.

    BREAKING—“Deeply concerning”—Two doses of a Covid vaccine are not enough to stop you catching the Omicron variant, UK scientists warn. Early analysis showed the vaccines were less effective at stopping #Omicron. But a third booster prevents 75% symptoms.

  25. BK posted a link regarding the ATO which prompts me to relate that yesterday we received a letter from the ATO relating to the estate of our late son who died in 2017. Seems that despite our solicitor and accountant setting aside a significant amount to cover the taxes on his estate, someone at the ATO (or higher ) has decided to squeeze the lemon a bit more and that they wish to revisit that payment…just in time for Xmas. Bastards! My wife is particularly upset despite my assurances that it will come to nought.
    Anyone else had a similar experience?

  26. Confessions,

    That was was an interesting article regarding the Liberal thinking on NSW.

    Given that in all of the published polling NSW is behaving no differently than the rest of the country in swinging against the Coalition, I don’t see how they can possibly get to five seats gains.

    I can perhaps see one or two gains for them, which will likely be counteracted by Labor pickups elsewhere in NSW (most likely Sydney).

    Does anyone else have a different view? C@t?

    (Thank you BK as always)

  27. If Barnaby has to stay in a US hospital for a time, will he learn the advantages of Australia’s Medicare? Or will the government cover his expenses?

  28. Thanks BK. I note this story Quentin Dempster tweets about highlgihts that toll collections in Sydney now exceed $2 billlion per annum. Private toll roads are a huge policy failure. Very inequitable too – poorer outer suburban residents pay most of them.

    Quentin Dempster
    NSW’s iCare workers comp scheme doesn’t care; creative accounting used to take off-budget (hide) $Bs; now Sydney toll roads (mainly monopolist Transurban) gouge motorists $2B p.a. Maybe it’s time for NSW electors to think about sacking our incompetent/uncaring government.

  29. JimmyD:

    It’s way too early to write the govt off yet in my view.

    This lot are far too adept at using taxpayer’s funds, pork barrelling and sand bagging their seats to shore up votes.

  30. Socrates:

    True! I’m staggered that Sydney road users simply accept tolls, when other states are able to build new roads without double taxing residents.

  31. I wont be holding my breath, but I look forward to a time when those who have been hoodwinked by Trump, will wake up to the fact that he is a treason weasel.
    This realisation will change the dynamic of everything, including the polity in Australia.
    Morrison and co will no longer be able to flirt in this space.


    David Frum

    Hi it’s December 2021, and it’s now literally in writing that senior advisers to the ex president of the United States plotted to declare a bogus national emergency to cancel a national election and seize the government by military force

  32. Vic:

    I keep reading commentary saying “if” Trump runs in 2024. Not only do I think it’s a certainty that he will run, but he will also win the Republican nomination.

  33. Confessions @ #47 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 8:47 am


    I keep reading commentary saying “if” Trump runs in 2024. Not only do I think it’s a certainty that he will run, but he will also win the Republican nomination.

    Don’t know about that. He was sicker with Covid than many thought and he’s not getting any younger. He’s definitely not as fit as Joe Biden. The smarter money is on the Republicans using him up until the nomination time to keep people engaged but then ditching him for a younger version of the same thing. There’s plenty of options to choose from. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he drops out and puts his support behind Don Jr or Ivanka.

  34. The West Australian reports today that “western suburbs business identities and voters” are looking for a high-profile candidate to run against Celia Hammond in the division of Curtin at the next federal election.
    The group, named as Curtin Independent, is represented by businessman Anthony Maslin, who with his wife Rin Norris, lost their three children when Malaysian Airlines flight 17 was shot down seven years ago.
    The group’s website identifies Hammond as being backed by the disgraced WA Liberal powerbrokers known as The Clan.
    For an insight into how The West views politics this story is on page 20.
    On page two there is a Frydenberg talking up the economy and in between it’s mostly fluff.
    And all this is inside a 12-page wraparound marking the first anniversary of a bikie murder.

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