Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor

The last Morgan poll for the year maintains its recent form with a huge lead for Labor. Also: the fortnightly Essential Research and more Victorian state polling.

What is presumably the last Morgan federal voting intention poll for the year maintains the recent trend of this series in favour of Labor with a 56.5-43.5 lead on two-party preferred, out further from 55.5-44.5 last time. Also as per usual with this series, this credits Labor with what seems an improbably strong flow of preferences, the primary votes being Coalition 34.5% (down one), Labor 36% (up half), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). A result is provided for the United Australia Party for the first time, and it’s all of 1%.

The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, for a swing to Labor of around 8% compared with the 2019 election; 58.5-41.5 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 5.5%); 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%); 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 6% and 64.5-35.5 in South Australia (out from 55.5-44.5, a swing of 14%). The Tasmanian result, from a particularly meagre sample, lands well off the path at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Liberals, a swing in their favour of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from an online and phone sample of 2805.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research survey, on this occasion offering neither voting intention nor leadership approval. The regular question on COVID-19 management found the federal government’s good rating up two to 47% and bad down four to 25%, its best result since July. The New South Wales government’s good rating was down one to 56%, Victoria’s was up one to 51%, Queensland’s was down four to 56%, South Australia’s was up nine to 60% and Western Australia’s was down five to 74%, small sample sizes being the order of the day in the case of the last few.

The poll also finds 34% agreeing with Scott Morrison’s attack on ICAC over Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation with 31% disagreeing and 36% on the fence. However, 53% supported the establishment of a federal commission, with no indication of how many were actively opposed. Other questions find 61% in favour of compulsory vaccination for all adults without a medical exemption, with only 20% opposed, and 28% support for the proposition that governments should on no account impose lockdowns, with 48% opposed. Forty-nine per cent want more evidence on omicron before changing requirements and restrictions, compared with 34% who want proactive tightening and 16% no change regardless. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.

Also out this week was a Redbridge Group poll Victorian state poll for the Herald Sun that targeted eight marginal seats: Eureka (formerly Wendouree), Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo (formerly Yuroke) and Melton. This was rather less good for Labor than other recent polling, with primary votes of Labor 36% (down 9.5% from the results in these seats at the 2018 election, adjusted as appropriate for the new redistribution), Liberal 28.8% (down 2.3%), the Greens 8% (down 0.7%) and, strikingly 8% for the United Australia Party and 5% for One Nation, neither of whom contested last time, quite apart from an unchanged 11% for independents and other minor parties. The latter development makes preference projections particularly uncertain, but a result is provided of 54-46 to Labor, a swing against them of around 4%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28 from a sample of 2442.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,023 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor”

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  1. Sounds to me like some trolls are pooing themselves at the prospect of their guys – and gals – taking a little heat when we all know that Royal Commissions and the like are for Labor types. Green types. Even Pauline types. Anybody but LNP types. Never mind, darlings. You know how the story goes. If you haven’t done anything wrong then you’ve got nothing to worry about. Let the ICAC cards fall where they will. We’ll all have a drink.

    When the rubber hits the road in the proper campaign, I know whose story I rather be listening to. The one who is promising a full retrospective, independent inquiry? Or the one promised by a third rate kiddie party clown that did nothing about it for three years despite specifically promising one? Oh dear. The press poodles are going to have get right down on their knees for this one. Some very imaginative reporting required and all this while the town drunk who was charged with neutralising social media is stuck in a five star Washington hotel with just a mini bar for company. They may even have to call on some of their trolls. Are you up for it, kids? Three years of cubby house building, how good is thatism, international embarrassment and unlimited pants pissing may depend on it.

  2. Lars Von Trier:

    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 9:28 pm

    [‘With 20% price growth in property wwp everybody in Sydney thinks they are rich or are about to get rich.’]

    I do trust that you’re that avariciousness is not a root cause of your distress? Pepys.

  3. Boerwar,
    That log4j issues is BIG. there’ll be years of data breaches from unpatched code.

    The general issue is that log4j is a java logging framework that has a ‘feature’ that can allow the parsing of log messages which can leverage a Java runtime feature that will reach out and download and run malicious code form the internet. (not the original intent of the feature btw)

    I have seen this issue described as the PFAS equivalent of IT issues. It’s going to be causing drama for years.
    And to give you an idea of the scale. Java runs on 2 billion devices and most java webservers or code libraries use or interact with the loggin framework.

    In other news, I think A LOT of people are going to die in the coming months. I kinda think Peter Gutwien could have gotten a solid reelection by taking a stand like WA.

    Now COVID will for sure be in tassie in the coming days.

  4. Investigate the previous Government? Maybe take a leaf out of Tony Abbott’s book “In victory malice, in defeat…?” I think that’s malice as well.

    But seriously, Labor should once in office establish an ICAC with teeth and let it get on with its job. It will find more than enough in the Augean Stables left over from the previous administration. Robodebt does scream out for its own investigation – it should have its own Royal Commission.

  5. Now COVID will for sure be in tassie in the coming days.

    Covid will be everywhere in Australia by New Year. Let’s hope that the Omicron variant is as mild as some are suggesting, that our current vaccination rate of about 75% will suppress its impacts enough to make it more or less a bad flu. We don’t yet know whether either is the case, but even so, the authorities appear to have given up on trying to contain it.

  6. SMH 08/19
    Three of Labor’s most senior figures including Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese argued against a new federal anti-corruption watchdog because some feared it would “make it very hard to govern”.

    In revelations that could blunt Labor’s criticism of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s proposal to tackle corruption in Canberra, former leader Bill Shorten faced fierce internal opposition during debates over the policy, including from his tight-knit leadership group members Penny Wong and Tony Burke.
    Such short memories.
    Don’t get too excited bludgers.

  7. “Such short memories.
    Don’t get too excited bludgers.”

    I think there is a lot of concern in Labor circles about a powerful ICAC, frankly is there any politician in NSW who wouldn’t get about 1000 years in jail if justice prevailed?

  8. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 10:25 pm

    SMH 08/19
    Three of Labor’s most senior figures including Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese argued against a new federal anti-corruption watchdog because some feared it would “make it very hard to govern”.


    A Meh story, they should name names, so we can make them pay.

  9. According to Brad Hazzard if the COVID cases increase at the rate they are increasing now, NSW can have 25000 cases/ day by end of January, 2022.
    If that scenario eventuates, Morrison will be in deep Dodo.

  10. “According to Brad Hazzard if the COVID cases increase at the rate they are increasing now, NSW can have 25000 cases/ day by end of January, 2022.”

    So, we will have a fair bit of information on hospitalisation rates among different cohorts by then. 🙁

    “If that scenario eventuates, Morrison will be in deep Dodo.”

    Depends i think on the seriousness of Omicron and how the hospital system holds up.

    @ 25000 /day, even a low % of hospitalisations will mean some serious absolute numbers actually looking for beds.

    Maybe some hospital admins looking around for oxygen stocks at the moment??

  11. “That was a particularly nasty and clearly intentional act of utter bastardry”

    JM, one of this lots primary tactics is to normalize that. 🙁

  12. “I put the prime minister on notice that a national anti-corruption commission will be able to look at the sports rorts program and these rorted programs of taxpayer funds.”

    Read that article and seems to me a fairly strong statement that goes to the heart of the issue with a Fed ICAC. The model Scumo has been pushing will shield Govt from scrutiny. The model Albo has been pushing will open Govt from scrutiny. Simple, black /white stuff.

    If he had said that he was somehow “commin to get yahs Scumo” then it would have been flipped back at him by Coalition spinners as a nasty, purely political attack. LNP are good at that kind of hypocrisy.

    Albo is shaping up well on framing this issue. 🙂

  13. Boerwar @ #1979 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 7:37 pm

    I wouldn’t really have a clue…

    There’s a widely used logging library in Java called ‘log4j’. Tons of Java apps and webapps (the latter category is the main cause for concern) use it. Some apps and webapps that don’t use it directly may still also be using it, due to transitive dependencies (libraries that use other libraries, that use other libraries, that use other libraries, …).

    And for whatever reason (guess it seemed like a good idea at the time), the way log4j parses and formats log messages allows for special embedded instructions like “use ‘Program X’ to format this part of the text”, along with a footnote like “if you don’t already have ‘Program X’, download it from ‘URL Y'”. Log4j abides by these footnotes, even if they’re completely outlandish.

    So a malicious person can come along, and send something to a server that causes it to put an instruction like that into a log message. They set ‘URL Y’ to something that they control, at which point ‘Program X’ is whatever they feel like. Their ‘Program X’ is downloaded and then runs on the compromised server with whatever permissions the Java process has. If the operator was lazy and ran Java as root with admin privileges, then the attacker has full control over the machine. And even if they didn’t, the attacker still has full control over the Java environment and access to everything it can touch.

    It’s a pretty big deal. Say a bank runs their website in Java, and uses a vulnerable version of log4j. Someone could load in a program that harvests request parameters (usernames and passwords) from every login attempt. Now they have everyone’s credentials. Or target any merchant website, and do the same thing with payment details. Or just shove bitcoin miners everywhere. Or ransomware everyone. Etc..

    Pretty much the limit is only whatever the attacker can imagine and code in Java (or not even Java because Runtime.exec(), so the only Java they need is enough to download their preferred platform-native exploit and fork it in a new process).

  14. My wife has informed that she thinks she heard the prime minister of the Nation promoting reverse mortgages to retirees

    My view is that reverse mortgages will result in a scandal of very significant proportions

    The combination of unknowns being property valuations because despite current circumstances property valuations can and do fall, lender realisation costs upon calling in the loan because the Mortgagee will act to realise, the term of life of the borrower aligned to the term of occupation of the property (noting some are forced to assisted living and the complications that introduces including a joint proprietor remaining in the family home) because both exacerbate the reverse compounding equation courtesy of the period of time and to where interest rates trend to over the period of time noting the current cycle will correct at some point dictated to by inflation which drives interest rates (and governments fuelling inflation as we saw with Howard and Costello)

    Simply, without any capacity to service the loan even on an interest only basis (hence availing of reverse mortgage products), exposure to the equations of the foregoing will end in disaster

    The lenders will protect their position – exclusively

    They are not lending to support a borrower who wishes to live outside their income and their circumstances

    They are predatory lenders zeroing in on people wishing to live a lifestyle in advance of their circumstances and their income

    Then you get to the beneficiaries under the Will, there being a secured creditor taking action to realise on the real estate asset – so mortgagee auction?

    The beneficiaries subservient including in regard the Personal Covenant clauses in the mortgage document so acting against the Estate over and above the mortgaged real estate – the Executors being served at Court so accruing costs they have no control over as defendant

    Against a lending corporation with deep pockets (and tax deductibility)

    Plus the emotion – given the next generation are aware of what their parents have entered into

    Better people look to down size on their own terms and conditions to realise on equity

    And live within their income, not in excess of their income

    Which brings into focus what happens when the borrowed money runs out – which it will do if you are spending in excess of income

    The mortgagee will have an interest in repairs and maintenance (to retain valuation) and in the property being insured (noting the mortgagee)

    All up a recipe for disaster – and promoted by none other than the prime minister (who perhaps should stick to his religious pulpit)

    A recipe for disaster because the borrower has no rights (except to spend the borrowed money on life style, a life style outside their means hence borrowing to support it)

    And that is just for starters

    And then you get to the bullshit windy rhetoric of the federal treasurer – a very dangerous individual

  15. Ven @ #1940 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 6:59 pm

    AE, BW, Socrates
    You post a lot on Military weapons, history. So I have few queries for you.
    After WW2, We know that Australian soldiers fought all wars like Korean, Vietnam, Gulfwar 1, Afghanistan, Gulfwar 2, Libya, Syria shoulder to shoulder with American soldiers. Except Gulfwar 1, which was approved by UN, all others are US wars. What is notable is that only Australia parterned with US in all these wars
    As far as I know No other country provided material and people like Australia in all these wars. Other than providing boots on ground, planes in air and boats in water, did Australia change the course of any of these wars? Will the outcome of these wars be any different without Australian participation?
    A fair assessment of above wars could be that US lost all above wars except Gulfwar 1, which was a combined effort of multiple nations from all continents. Why do we keep getting into wars with US all the time. Is it because of ANZUS commitment? Dutton is ready to go to war with China if US goes to war to’save Taiwan’s.

    You keep posting about how Australia should have a Independent Foreign and Defence policies to US. How can we ever those with current weaponry and manpower and even after adding Nuclear Subs?

    A minor glitch in your post. Korea was also a UN effort.

  16. Roy Orbison @9.47,
    Needed a laugh!!
    Love your turn of phrase-especially the one about the “town drunk stuck in Washington with a mini-bar” !!

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