What is presumably the last Morgan federal voting intention poll for the year maintains the recent trend of this series in favour of Labor with a 56.5-43.5 lead on two-party preferred, out further from 55.5-44.5 last time. Also as per usual with this series, this credits Labor with what seems an improbably strong flow of preferences, the primary votes being Coalition 34.5% (down one), Labor 36% (up half), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). A result is provided for the United Australia Party for the first time, and it’s all of 1%.
The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, for a swing to Labor of around 8% compared with the 2019 election; 58.5-41.5 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 5.5%); 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%); 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 6% and 64.5-35.5 in South Australia (out from 55.5-44.5, a swing of 14%). The Tasmanian result, from a particularly meagre sample, lands well off the path at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Liberals, a swing in their favour of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from an online and phone sample of 2805.
Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research survey, on this occasion offering neither voting intention nor leadership approval. The regular question on COVID-19 management found the federal government’s good rating up two to 47% and bad down four to 25%, its best result since July. The New South Wales government’s good rating was down one to 56%, Victoria’s was up one to 51%, Queensland’s was down four to 56%, South Australia’s was up nine to 60% and Western Australia’s was down five to 74%, small sample sizes being the order of the day in the case of the last few.
The poll also finds 34% agreeing with Scott Morrison’s attack on ICAC over Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation with 31% disagreeing and 36% on the fence. However, 53% supported the establishment of a federal commission, with no indication of how many were actively opposed. Other questions find 61% in favour of compulsory vaccination for all adults without a medical exemption, with only 20% opposed, and 28% support for the proposition that governments should on no account impose lockdowns, with 48% opposed. Forty-nine per cent want more evidence on omicron before changing requirements and restrictions, compared with 34% who want proactive tightening and 16% no change regardless. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
Also out this week was a Redbridge Group poll Victorian state poll for the Herald Sun that targeted eight marginal seats: Eureka (formerly Wendouree), Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo (formerly Yuroke) and Melton. This was rather less good for Labor than other recent polling, with primary votes of Labor 36% (down 9.5% from the results in these seats at the 2018 election, adjusted as appropriate for the new redistribution), Liberal 28.8% (down 2.3%), the Greens 8% (down 0.7%) and, strikingly 8% for the United Australia Party and 5% for One Nation, neither of whom contested last time, quite apart from an unchanged 11% for independents and other minor parties. The latter development makes preference projections particularly uncertain, but a result is provided of 54-46 to Labor, a swing against them of around 4%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28 from a sample of 2442.
So in 2019, Angus Taylor in Hume got:
53.29% on primaries
62.99% on 2PP
Not really one of the unreachable seats if the swing is on, and the local member is a dud.
sprocket,
I think you are correct.
Seat polls are always unreliable. Without the usual info about sample size, questions asked and credibility of the announcer, better to be sceptical.
Ucomms in the field by phone with lots of questions about the subs.
Read the caption on photos
https://mobile.twitter.com/LesStonehouse/status/1470859831816847363/photo/1
Confessions @ #1900 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 6:06 pm
Funny you should ask.
Wait a minute, NSW isn’t doing sign-ins anymore? Why on earth not?
Boerwar
You need to have a look at the Chechnya at the time and what the Chechen extremists were up to. All reported with glee in places like the NYT etc etc. That is until the US etc started shitting themselves when it started to look like the Chechens could actually get their hands on nuclear weapons . In the shit heap that was Russia under Boris the Drunk and the Harvard Boys ‘Big Bang’ it was off to ‘Failed State’ with a bullet for Russia .All sorts of things were disappearing from military bases, sold to whoever had the money.
Whatever you think of Putin his entry on the scene stopped that. Between the likes of the Chechens and the “Russian Mafia” we had a good chance of seeing bin Laden with The Bomb.
A little piece from Harvard’s Kennedy School. So not ‘Pravda’.
.
Nuclear Gangsterism in Chechnya
2004
In 1997, Boris Yeltsin’s Assistant for National Security Affairs, General Alexander Lebed, acknowledged that 84 of some 132 such weapons were not accounted for in Russia. These weapons are miniature nuclear devices (0.1 to 1kilotons), small enough to fit into a suitcase carried by a single individual.
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/nuclear-terrorism-how-serious-threat-russia
David Rowe. Too true!
Fun fact. Hume is a Federation seat.
In 1901, the two candidates were:
Sir William Lyne of the Protectionist Party – 54.1%
William Goddard of the Free Trade Party – 45.9%
”
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:45 pm
Huge if true! This from Penny Ackery, the Teal candidate for Hume…
Big News!! Recent polling shows #AngusTaylor has dropped 22 percentage points in his electorate of Hume. The good people of our electorate realise that we can do better. See you at the debates Angus. For everyone else, please donate or join my campaign.
pennyackery.com.au/donate/
”
sprocket
If I remember correctly A Taylor refused to debate with other candidates in 2019 elections by not showing up for the debate. Still he won that election. What a fall for that electorate from Alby Schultz
(1939–2015). Alby Schultz was a genuine conservative.
Asha @ #1904 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 6:12 pm
Nope, only at ‘high risk’ venues.
Who knows.
Stop freaking out, people. Dom has it in hand.
NSW is doing sign ins. Just a reduced list
Check-ins are only required for hospitals, aged and disability care facilities, gyms, places of worship, funerals or memorial services, personal services (including sex services), pubs, small bars and registered clubs, nightclubs, strip clubs, sex on-premises and indoor music festivals with over 1000 people.
My sister visited a pharmacy in Perth’s south the other day where two Covid positive SA truckers had been.
She did right thing and signed in.
Was contacted by health authorities today and told to get a test and isolate till she gets a result.
I visited her yesterday!
She, her husband and I are all two dose vaccinated.
Casual observations tell me signing rates are low at shops I visit.
Might change if we start getting community transmission.
I said strap in. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
Morrison should have gone early 😉
Business can still decide who enters their private property as well in NSW..
The new settings that come into effect today include:
Density limits will cease and masks will only be required on public transport and planes, at airports, and for indoors front-of-house hospitality staff who are not fully vaccinated. Masks are strongly recommended in settings where you cannot social distance;
QR check-ins will only be required at high-risk venues including hospitals, aged and disability care facilities, gyms, places of worship, funerals or memorial services, business premises for personal services (e.g. hairdressers, salons and spas), pubs, small bars, registered clubs, nightclubs, and for indoor music festivals with more than 1,000 people;
Proof of vaccination only required for indoor music festivals with more than 1,000 people and cruises with more than 100 passengers;
Businesses can still require proof of vaccination at their own discretion;
COVID safety plans will be optional for businesses and will be supported by SafeWork NSW.
https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/nsw-moves-to-next-stage-of-reopening-as-booster-program-ramps-up
If it’s not obvious already, our Premier Dom is a wowser..
Regarding NSW public transport, I am actually on the train right now. We have 14 people in the upper deck. Six without or wearing their masks below their nose.
The LA Times have noticed some dodgy appointment by the Murdoch dependant Scott…
BY MEG JAMESSTAFF WRITER
DEC. 14, 2021 UPDATED 9:30 PM PT
The nomination of a respected lawyer with strong ties to Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch to head Australia’s powerful competition watchdog agency is drawing scrutiny.
On Tuesday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government tapped Gina Cass-Gottlieb to become chairwoman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. Her involvement with the Murdoch family stretches back more than a decade.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission records list Cass-Gottlieb, who is based in Sydney, Australia, as a manager of a Delaware firm that administers Rupert Murdoch’s U.S.-based family trust, which controls the family’s lucrative stock holdings in News Corp. and Fox Corp. Federal Communications Commission records also list Cass-Gottlieb as a director of trust administrator.
Cass-Gottlieb separately is a former attorney to Fox Corp. Chief Executive Lachlan Murdoch.
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2021-12-14/rupert-murdoch-associate-nominated-australia-competition-watchdog-gina-cass-gottlieb-lachlan-murdoch
Just got Uecomm polled.
Quite detailed questions on sub options.
Did they ask about comrade Xi?
I saw earlier that one January 6 protestor in Washington received a 28-month jail sentence for threatening to “put a bullet in the head of Nancy Pelosi”. I would have thought that threatening the life of the US Congress’ presiding officer would have got someone a bit more time in the slammer than that. Once, maybe even a life sentence.
I wonder if the American right will celebrate this jailed person as some sort of “martyr for freedom”. Maybe after serving his sentence he’ll get his own talk-back radio show, or maybe even stand for Congress as a Republican candidate.
@socrates, re: Gareth Gareth Evans:
He also talks about nuclear safety and proliferation, with some further logic I agree with on why we would not go with the French option.
https://www.apln.network/news/member_activities/the-real-risks-of-australias-submarine-deal
_____
What an incredibly facile article. One would expect someone of his stature to get basic facts right. The Attack class program didn’t ‘blow out’ from $50 billion to $90 billion: the $50 billion figure is the total costs for construction and technology transfer in 2016 dollar figures. The $90 billion figure is the estimate of the actual dollars to be spent – at the dollar value at the time they are to be spent – over the total period from contract signing to end of construction: ie. from 2016 to 2052.
I stopped reading the article at that point. I should have stopped reading earlier when Gar Gar claimed that because of the ‘sealed reactor’ technology the supporting nuclear industry would be minimal. Utter horseshit.
poroti
Sure. Absolutely wicked that they wanted a nuclear weapon.
The figures are rubbery but there were around 300,000 casualties. Out of a population of around 1.4 million.
mikehilliard says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 6:29 pm
Did they ask about comrade Xi?’
———————–
They did, as it turns out.
If you think Chairman Xi is terrified of Australia’s 2050 nuclear-powered submarines, press 1.
Speaking of sentences, they certainly were not lenient in the 1830s.
Mrs Sprocket has come across a trove of her family history and there is a bunch of convicts back 4 generations who were sent out for a variety of offences including horse stealing and larceny.
But the one who stands out is her great, great, great grandfather who was sentenced to lifetime transportation to the colonies. His offence? Pickpocket – and he was aged 15, and stood all of 4 foot 8 inches.
BW
LOL
A-E would have been pleased to know that there was a question around buying an interim four spackfilla submarines.
That is if I understood the question correctly, by no means a given.
There was only a single party polling question: wtte primary vote.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 6:38 pm
Speaking of sentences, they certainly were not lenient in the 1830s.
Mrs Sprocket has come across a trove of her family history and there is a bunch of convicts back 4 generations who were sent out for a variety of offences including horse stealing and larceny.
But the one who stands out is her great, great, great grandfather who was sentenced to lifetime transportation to the colonies. His offence? Pickpocket – and he was aged 15, and stood all of 4 foot 8 inches.
—————————-
In your view did this:
improve the genes of the colonies press 1
improve the genes of the auld mug press 2
you don’t know what a gene is press 3.
Is it true that Mr Perrotet can’t count to $14 billion?
Apropos not much, Gina Cass-Gottleib’s father was a prominent orthopaedic surgeon in Sydney’s eastern suburbs.
Itza
It is all a coincidence.
Boerwar @ #1929 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 6:45 pm
but you should see him do the pea and thimble trick.
Dom Perottet only has check-in at his church… (his wife cuts his hair)
QR check-ins will only be required at high-risk venues including hospitals, aged and disability care facilities, gyms, places of worship, funerals or memorial services, business premises for personal services (e.g. hairdressers, salons and spas), pubs, small bars, registered clubs, nightclubs, and for indoor music festivals with more than 1,000 people;
Boerwar @ #1929 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 6:15 pm
Who can?
Requiring sign-in for ‘high risk’ venues only is a misnomer. In the past 2 weeks I’ve received 3 notifications of potential exposure to Covid at venues I’ve visited. All 3 of them were in supermarkets.
Perhaps because up until today these were one of the few venues unvaxxed were able to visit.
Asha @ #1906 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 6:12 pm
Because if they did, most venues and businesses would end up shut by Christmas.
Wat
Reminds me of my very clever nephew, who knew every number there was when he was about four.
One day I asked him if he could count to a thousand.
He said no, he couldn’t, because he didn’t have the time.
Q: Wait a minute, NSW isn’t doing sign-ins anymore? Why on earth not?..
It is obvious- if everyone was contacted and asked to quarantine for visiting an exposure site, within a week the whole state would be locked in their houses again….people are already getting multiple messages a day.
It would destroy the ‘opening up mantra’…..shame about the public health implications.
RE: SA about to go to s%t…..I think this could actually be the death knell for Marshall with an election in March. I haven’t met a single person happy about the opened borders. Marshall wont close them now. I was on the train this morning and I could hear everyone slagging him for his ‘stupid’ decision. The case numbers will peak in the lead up to the election…
Frednk
Just saw your earlier post
As far as we are aware, most residents suffered mild symptoms.
Some ended up being cared for in hospital.
One resident with serious pre existing respiratory issues was quite unwell but has since recovered.
AE, BW, Socrates
You post a lot on Military weapons, history. So I have few queries for you.
After WW2, We know that Australian soldiers fought all wars like Korean, Vietnam, Gulfwar 1, Afghanistan, Gulfwar 2, Libya, Syria shoulder to shoulder with American soldiers. Except Gulfwar 1, which was approved by UN, all others are US wars. What is notable is that only Australia parterned with US in all these wars
As far as I know No other country provided material and people like Australia in all these wars. Other than providing boots on ground, planes in air and boats in water, did Australia change the course of any of these wars? Will the outcome of these wars be any different without Australian participation?
A fair assessment of above wars could be that US lost all above wars except Gulfwar 1, which was a combined effort of multiple nations from all continents. Why do we keep getting into wars with US all the time. Is it because of ANZUS commitment? Dutton is ready to go to war with China if US goes to war to’save Taiwan’s.
You keep posting about how Australia should have a Independent Foreign and Defence policies to US. How can we ever those with current weaponry and manpower and even after adding Nuclear Subs?
Woolworhts, Coles and other majors are doing it, but however, it’s not strictly enforced, ‘personal responsability and all.
I’ve been thinking about our options for an interim conventional SSK subs over the past few days – assuming that Dutton and Morrison have so fouled the nest that the French will never have us back as a partner.
One of the criteria of Sea 1000 is that any submarine build deliver not just boats but a sovereign capability to maintain and upgrade them ourselves without being at the mercy of the foreign prime contractors IP.
However, if we only need an interim fleet of boats – from 2040 to 2060 for example – we could do worse than to get the germans – ThyssenKrupp Marine – to build 6 Type 216CDs in Germany (the CD variants have this cool futuristic weird angular shaped hull that is designed to deflect active sonar arrays away from the hunting vessel, the also come with fuel cell AIPs and Lithium batteries) for a fixed price, turn key contract of $20 billion (2021 dollar value). It may take 5 years detailed design work to bring that proposal up to scratch 9and to integrate the Virginia class combat systems and american weapons systems we desire) and the germs may have us over the barrel in sustainment costs, BUT its only an interim capability – one which we could offload to some grateful countries in our own region (particularly Singapore and perhaps even Indonesia) if and when our nuclear SSN fleet becomes operational.
getting the germans to take care of the interim sub requirement would allow the federal government, the ASC and Navy to seriously focus without distraction on the epic challenge of building American or British designed SSNs in Adelaide: a truly ginormous undertaking in every respect.
Torchbearer,
Yep, I’m becoming more convinced Marshall will be a one termer. Not just about COVID, where incompetence seems to be becoming more entrenched, but also the land acquisitions for the South Rd development (though they are in Labor sets) and the new planning laws cutting a swathe through the suburbs. Visited Unley Park recently, couldn’t believe how many demolitions and subdivisions there have been there. And the gardens are being wiped out too – so much for Adelaide being a National Park City. And these redevelopments include blue ribbon seats.
A big COVID outbreak next year will see the Liberal Party wiped out in the formerly COVID free states.
zoomster, I remember when I was a young child, I thought counting to a hundred was a daunting task (I remember “One two… miss a few… ninety-nine, one hundred” and not because I didn’t know the numbers in between, it was just the lack of patience in my juvenile brain (the several minutes it would take to recite the numbers would have felt like an eternity back then.)
That said, assuming you could recite the numbers at a steady rate of 1-2 per second and could keep counting without taking any breaks for anything or dying of old age, I believe it would take several centuries to count to 14 billion.
“ Why do we keep getting into wars with US all the time. Is it because of ANZUS commitment? ”
It’s the Tories reflect response: salute the American flag at every opportunity.
THAT is probably the main reason why I am dead keen on reviving a deep strategic partnership with France and also with ASEAN countries (especially Indonesia): it gives us options beyond running to the sweaty armpit of Uncle Sam at the first whiff of gun powder. It would give us the heft – and hopefully the bipartisan perspective – to be able to say ‘no’ to the worst of America’s military adventures. A worth while position to be in these days, as America continues to lose its shit domestically.
I’m glad someone else got polled by Ucomm. I’d never heard of them and I rarely get polled, living in a seat like Kingsford-Smith, which is never going to swing. As above, there were lots of questions about subs in this, to me at least, heavily loaded polls. There is obviously disquiet about the whole programme to be asking question after question as to where the things will be glued together. I say loaded poll because LNP got the donkey vote at position one. Then Labor, Greens, UAP and Hanson, which are basically the same. P1 will be splashing tears at the fact that there was no option for independents when, clearly, they are going to be a huge problem for Morrison and his criminals having to defend safe seats. The other questions were loaded, if I remember, about 5-2 to the perceived LNP strengths, ie, defence, economy, immigration vs health and education.
They finished off trying to budge money for charity, at which point I hung up.
Loris @ #1943 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 6:34 pm
I think, even if Marshall does get re-elected, he’s on borrowed time anyway. The hard Right are consolidating their influence in the party and already are starting to show the knives they have out for him. They already have brought down Chapman, who would have been heir-apparent. It’s only a matter of time before they make their move – especially if the government is re-elected as a minority government with the support of the rebellious right-wing MPs.
Either way, I don’t know what the scenario will be in March 2026 but I am extremely confident Steven Marshall will not be leading the Liberals into that election.
Now, in the shorter term, if we could get some SA state polling soon, that’d be real nice (Sorry, I know I am starting to sound like a broken record in this regard.)
The Shire Lair calls the election about himself.. what could possible go wrong.. that hasn’t already?
Election is now “called”.. about integrity , honesty,Pork Barrelling & Rorts..
I’m sure these RWNJ media types don’t realise they are gifting their opponents super natural powers in their attempts to bring them down…
Alex Jones thinks Biden can influence the weather.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/alex-joes-tornadoes-joe-biden-b1975478.html