Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor

The last Morgan poll for the year maintains its recent form with a huge lead for Labor. Also: the fortnightly Essential Research and more Victorian state polling.

What is presumably the last Morgan federal voting intention poll for the year maintains the recent trend of this series in favour of Labor with a 56.5-43.5 lead on two-party preferred, out further from 55.5-44.5 last time. Also as per usual with this series, this credits Labor with what seems an improbably strong flow of preferences, the primary votes being Coalition 34.5% (down one), Labor 36% (up half), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). A result is provided for the United Australia Party for the first time, and it’s all of 1%.

The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, for a swing to Labor of around 8% compared with the 2019 election; 58.5-41.5 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 5.5%); 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%); 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 6% and 64.5-35.5 in South Australia (out from 55.5-44.5, a swing of 14%). The Tasmanian result, from a particularly meagre sample, lands well off the path at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Liberals, a swing in their favour of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from an online and phone sample of 2805.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research survey, on this occasion offering neither voting intention nor leadership approval. The regular question on COVID-19 management found the federal government’s good rating up two to 47% and bad down four to 25%, its best result since July. The New South Wales government’s good rating was down one to 56%, Victoria’s was up one to 51%, Queensland’s was down four to 56%, South Australia’s was up nine to 60% and Western Australia’s was down five to 74%, small sample sizes being the order of the day in the case of the last few.

The poll also finds 34% agreeing with Scott Morrison’s attack on ICAC over Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation with 31% disagreeing and 36% on the fence. However, 53% supported the establishment of a federal commission, with no indication of how many were actively opposed. Other questions find 61% in favour of compulsory vaccination for all adults without a medical exemption, with only 20% opposed, and 28% support for the proposition that governments should on no account impose lockdowns, with 48% opposed. Forty-nine per cent want more evidence on omicron before changing requirements and restrictions, compared with 34% who want proactive tightening and 16% no change regardless. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.

Also out this week was a Redbridge Group poll Victorian state poll for the Herald Sun that targeted eight marginal seats: Eureka (formerly Wendouree), Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo (formerly Yuroke) and Melton. This was rather less good for Labor than other recent polling, with primary votes of Labor 36% (down 9.5% from the results in these seats at the 2018 election, adjusted as appropriate for the new redistribution), Liberal 28.8% (down 2.3%), the Greens 8% (down 0.7%) and, strikingly 8% for the United Australia Party and 5% for One Nation, neither of whom contested last time, quite apart from an unchanged 11% for independents and other minor parties. The latter development makes preference projections particularly uncertain, but a result is provided of 54-46 to Labor, a swing against them of around 4%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28 from a sample of 2442.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,023 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 38 of 41
1 … 37 38 39 … 41

  2. RH Wombat,

    Thanks for the info on urea.

    Weirdly enough it seems to self-assemble in space, which when all you mostly have is C H O N and P, it is probably an inevitable outcome.

  4. ‘Zerlo says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:23 pm

    The day that America sold it’s soul.
    …’
    ———————-
    Quite. I am not sure who is selling which soul with the latest Xi-Putin love-ins.

  5. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:29 pm

    Well it’s better than the latest love-ins with Five Eyes or AUSCACUS or whatever it’s called now.

    or is it ASPI now?

  6. @ Mavis
    Out buying fishnchips today at Redcliffe. Beautiful day on the beach looking out over to magnificent Moreton Island. What an asset to Brisbane is Moreton Bay. I reckon I’d take it over Sydney Harbour, magnificent as it is, anytime.
    Anyway, I digress. Still lots of people with masks in the local shops. The new Qld CHO says we aren’t done with masks yet. Sounds like the right move to me.
    And the calamari were delicious.

  7. Stay safe everyone,

    COVID has exploded near me. Cases on UNSW campus, and I was at two venues where a case was detected on Sunday – Coles Danks Street, and the Broadway Shopping Centre.

    Mum is cranky, but I have told her we need to limit her exposure until she has her booster (next Tues) and for a few days afterwards.

    I get my booster on 10th Jan.

  9. ‘Zerlo says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:30 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:29 pm

    Well it’s better than the latest love-ins with Five Eyes or AUSCACUS or whatever it’s called now.

    or is it ASPI now?’
    ————————
    Xi and Putin are both murderers of their own citizens. Both jail and murder journalists. Both put truth tellers in jail. Both are sabre rattlers. Both have invaded other countries. Both are assembling forces for armed invasions. Both have utter contempt for democracy. Both show routine contempt for liberal values. Putin was responsible for the Chechin genocide and Xi is responsible for the Uigher genocide.

    As noted above, the best that can be said for either is that if the two hang together neither is selling their soul to the other.

  10. Loris

    “Vibe in Adelaide now is fear and anger. Lots of people I’ve spoken to don’t want to go out and then be put in quarantine for Xmas through bad luck. Small business owners fear having to shut at their busiest time of year. 26 cases announced today, highest since April last year (when it was mostly international travellers).”

    Xanthippe has similar concerns. The SA Health site still has not been updated for exposure sites today, which is very unusual. This suggests they are having trouble tracing all the contact sites. If they don’t keep up to date with that every day, it will get out of control. I fear Adelaide has lost the battle on Covid.

    Also notable that CMO Nicola Spurrier was absent from the last press conference, after her advice to close borders a week ago was ignored. Time to get your booster, Adelaide bludgers.

  11. ‘Douglas and Milko says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:31 pm

    Stay safe everyone,

    COVID has exploded near me. Cases on UNSW campus, and I was at two venues where a case was detected on Sunday – Coles Danks Street, and the Broadway Shopping Centre.

    Mum is cranky, but I have told her we need to limit her exposure until she has her booster (next Tues) and for a few days afterwards.

    I get my booster on 10th Jan.’
    ——————–
    Tell her better cranky than dead.

  12. I can understand why people are getting bored with the constant discussion of Covid numbers. I suspect they’ve made their own decision about whether it’s dangerous or not and are acting accordingly.

    But for all their boasting about “keeping us safe” (is this the cliché of the pandemic?) our “leaders” are not providing clear guidance. Far too much variation between states and even between regions.

    If Omicron takes off, will it affect the election results, or will Morrison bulldoze his way through pretending he’s in control?

  13. The ShireLiar is edging towards another of his signature poor judgements.

    Today, he has been calling the Teals “Voices of Labor…and a vote for them is a vote for Anthony Albanese.” Cf front page of the SmearTralian.

    Putting aside the two blatant lies in the statement for the moment, the Waverley Wally is suggesting the Teal voters to preference Labor. Why not? If you are drinking the Teal Kool-Aid, why not refuse to preference back the man who is blatantly lying to you?

  15. Huge if true! This from Penny Ackery, the Teal candidate for Hume…

    Big News!! Recent polling shows #AngusTaylor has dropped 22 percentage points in his electorate of Hume. The good people of our electorate realise that we can do better. See you at the debates Angus. For everyone else, please donate or join my campaign.
    pennyackery.com.au/donate/

  17. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:36 pm

    Australians have Aborigines.
    Canada and USA have native indigenous people, Jewish people, black people, asian people, any people of color (other than white).
    UK has black people, other racism and murders.

    Five Eyes has homeless in record numbers.

  18. The question is which government will go to the poll first in 2022 and could be a precursor for the following election

    Will it be S.A Liberal government or the Federal Lib/nats first up

  20. If and its a big if but if Angus was down 22% then Wilson and Sharma would be down by more because i can’t see Hume swinging more than Goldstein and Wentworth but we all know seat level polling is next to useless.


  21. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 3:31 pm

    Interesting observation.

    My mum has been in aged care for several months.

    She had her first dose of AZ before going into care.

    Therefore she had her second dose of AZ whilst in care.

    All the other residents who have been in care when first dose was being administered, all got Pfizer.

    Her whole unit became covid positive 6 weeks ago. All Pfizer. Apart from her who was the only AZ recipient. Go figure.

    How did they all go health wise?

  22. Re article in the Guardian posted by Sprocket.

    Under the original timeline my booster was due on 29 January, but, obedient to Morrison’s request that I get my booster ASAP, I rang my GP early on Monday to be told the earliest date available, because of limited supply, was 11 February. The receptionist did suggest ringing again next week in case the supply situation had improved. Meanwhile I did a trawl through the various other clinics near me and have secured an appointment for 6 January at a local pharmacy. What was also interesting was that the several pharmacies nearby all seemed to have supplies available immediately for those eligible, while the local medical practices on the whole seemed not to be taking any bookings until February. So much for “Get your booster now!”

  23. “Surely, we have learned by now that we underestimate this virus at our peril. ? “Omicron”

    If Starpharma “Viraleze” anti covid 19 nasal spray inactivates Omicron Variant, as it does to
    Alpha- Beta- Gamma- Delta- and Kappa Variants.
    there are going to be some very RED faces in government and the TGA regulator!.

  24. Mexicanbeemer:

    If and its a big if but if Angus was down 22% then Wilson and Sharma would be down by more because i can’t see Hume swinging more than Goldstein and Wentworth but we all know seat level polling is next to useless.

    Angus has been uniquely… accident-prone, though.

    However I concur on the extremely limited value of seat-level polling.

  25. Socrates

    SA Health is trying to triage the exposure sites, all that’s happening is a slow down of listings. Some even after the 7 days isolation period. Not inspiring me with confidence.

    I tried to book my booster at a local pharmacy, they only had slots for shots 1 or 2, not boosters. So i booked for shot 1. Government/Healthengine website not updated?

  26. Loris

    Sorry I don’t know re the bookings. I had my 1 and 2 at the SA Health site at the Women’s and Children’s Hospital. I am not due for 3 till February, can now be brought forward to January.

  27. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:14 pm
    He was appealing to the doctor’s wives, and the young, upwardly mobile professionals

    He forgot to put his socks on

  28. Zerlo says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:48 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 4:36 pm

    Australians have Aborigines.
    Canada and USA have native indigenous people, Jewish people, black people, asian people, any people of color (other than white).
    UK has black people, other racism and murders.

    Five Eyes has homeless in record numbers.
    —————————————
    I suggest you go to China and do any of the following:
    1. Discuss publicly whether the Wuhan labs caused Covid
    2. Assert that there is an Uigher genocide
    3. Announce that Xi is a militaristic megalomaniac.
    4. Publicly announce that the Taiwanese people deserve to determine for themselves whether they want to join the mainland.
    Best wishes, comrade!

  30. Very pleased. Just managed to get bookings for OH and I for our boosters on the 29th of Dec.
    Previously booked for late Jan when we would be at 6 months So getting them maybe a week late for 5 months. Local GP surgery

  32. This will bring out the nastiest of Morrison’s attacks. Albo was very clear in his position on the rorts. Stand by for sleazy backgrounding.

    Scott Morrison and his ministers would be investigated by a federal anti-corruption commission that Labor would establish should it win the next election, Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has vowed.

    Responding to an investigation by Nine newspapers into the weighting of multiple government grants towards Coalition seats, Mr Albanese said the commission Labor would establish would have retrospective powers and be tasked with investigating some of the more overt pork-barrelling by the Morrison government.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-be-investigated-by-labor-s-corruption-body-albanese-20211215-p59hry

  34. Only Morrison would think insulting people he may well find himself dealing with to continue in government is a good idea.
    No doubt he will just deny he ever said anything to link the Voices independents with Labor.

  36. Zerlo says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 5:25 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 5:18 pm

    Hahah, no thanks BW.
    ….’
    ——————
    Quite right.

  38. Albanese made it clear in the interview today that the federal ICAC would be independent of government and would make their own decisions on who or what to investigate.

    Albanese said he would not be surprised if the ICAC did look at some of the rorting but would not be directed by a labor government to do so.

    Coorey is talking bullshit at the bequest of his masters.

  40. Promo now aping GladysB on Rorting is OK…

    Question: “How do you explain Dickson (Peter Dutton’s seat) which received $40 million and the next seat received $900,000. How do you explain that?”
    PM’s answer: “Dickson must have a very good local member.”

  41. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 5:52 pm

    Promo now aping GladysB on Rorting is OK…

    Question: “How do you explain Dickson (Peter Dutton’s seat) which received $40 million and the next seat received $900,000. How do you explain that?”
    PM’s answer: “Dickson must have a very good local member.”
    _________
    Almost as glib as Abbot’s Shit Happens.

  42. Bennelong Lurker

    Try Adore Pharmacy at Rozelle. Booked Saturday for a booster shot on Sunday. May have changed a bit with the uptick in cases but hopefully it works out and you can get in there.

    Adele the pharmacist there was a driver behind pharmacists getting to distribute the shots. She also stood for Balmain Ward for Labor at the recent LG elections, so she’s not only a good pharmacist but a good person too – neither Tory scum nor Greenie airhead.

  43. sprocket_

    It was the smirking face as he answered that gave him away. He gets that expression when he thinks he’s found the perfect put down.

  44. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 5:45 pm

    Quiet right, for you too, as you don’t critise your own bullshit that you eat. Let alone can speak about other nations.

  45. steve davis says:
    Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 5:50 pm

    Nath
    Smoko can do no wrong as far as your concerned. Only Littlefinger is the corrupt one.
    ________________
    You might want to re calibrate your tin foil hat, Steve ‘tin foil hat’ Davis.

  46. Just on NSW:

    With booster supplies completely irregular, with the CMO advising to retain mandatory mask wearing, with numbers predicted to be tens of thousands a day, with Christmas as high a risk time as could be imagined, the only conclusion you can make about Perrottet is that he wants to see this virus spread widely, and quickly, in some lie back and think of the budget sort of ennui about other people’s lives.

  47. A bit more on the Hume 22 point poll slump for Angus Taylor – I figure it’s one of the RedBridge series commissioned by Simon Holmes a Court.

    This from the Teal Candidate, Penny Ackery, responding to one of numerous queries for more info on the polling source..

    Hi Sean
    Hope all’s well.
    Reach out to @Matto19801 our campaign manager who can talk you through it.
    There is no internet link at present.

  48. Itza:

    This is an omnishambles of epic proportions. There’s been no clear explanation of why the restrictions had to be lessened today in the face of rising cases.

    Too late now to put the genie back in the bottle. Living with in excess of 25K+ daily cases. Unbelievable!

  49. lizzie @ #1893 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 5:57 pm

    sprocket_

    It was the smirking face as he answered that gave him away. He gets that expression when he thinks he’s found the perfect put down.

    Sick making smirk. And the laughs. So funny; not. He’s a psycho. An aberration of a human being, completely amoral, unfit for public office. He must think that underlining that level of corrupt money chucking about will encourage people to vote for them, as the only way to get money. Another own goal. Loser. God I’m sick to death of them.

Comments Page 38 of 41
1 … 37 38 39 … 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *