What is presumably the last Morgan federal voting intention poll for the year maintains the recent trend of this series in favour of Labor with a 56.5-43.5 lead on two-party preferred, out further from 55.5-44.5 last time. Also as per usual with this series, this credits Labor with what seems an improbably strong flow of preferences, the primary votes being Coalition 34.5% (down one), Labor 36% (up half), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). A result is provided for the United Australia Party for the first time, and it’s all of 1%.
The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, for a swing to Labor of around 8% compared with the 2019 election; 58.5-41.5 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 5.5%); 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%); 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 6% and 64.5-35.5 in South Australia (out from 55.5-44.5, a swing of 14%). The Tasmanian result, from a particularly meagre sample, lands well off the path at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Liberals, a swing in their favour of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from an online and phone sample of 2805.
Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research survey, on this occasion offering neither voting intention nor leadership approval. The regular question on COVID-19 management found the federal government’s good rating up two to 47% and bad down four to 25%, its best result since July. The New South Wales government’s good rating was down one to 56%, Victoria’s was up one to 51%, Queensland’s was down four to 56%, South Australia’s was up nine to 60% and Western Australia’s was down five to 74%, small sample sizes being the order of the day in the case of the last few.
The poll also finds 34% agreeing with Scott Morrison’s attack on ICAC over Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation with 31% disagreeing and 36% on the fence. However, 53% supported the establishment of a federal commission, with no indication of how many were actively opposed. Other questions find 61% in favour of compulsory vaccination for all adults without a medical exemption, with only 20% opposed, and 28% support for the proposition that governments should on no account impose lockdowns, with 48% opposed. Forty-nine per cent want more evidence on omicron before changing requirements and restrictions, compared with 34% who want proactive tightening and 16% no change regardless. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
Also out this week was a Redbridge Group poll Victorian state poll for the Herald Sun that targeted eight marginal seats: Eureka (formerly Wendouree), Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo (formerly Yuroke) and Melton. This was rather less good for Labor than other recent polling, with primary votes of Labor 36% (down 9.5% from the results in these seats at the 2018 election, adjusted as appropriate for the new redistribution), Liberal 28.8% (down 2.3%), the Greens 8% (down 0.7%) and, strikingly 8% for the United Australia Party and 5% for One Nation, neither of whom contested last time, quite apart from an unchanged 11% for independents and other minor parties. The latter development makes preference projections particularly uncertain, but a result is provided of 54-46 to Labor, a swing against them of around 4%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28 from a sample of 2442.
Luke Henriques-Gomes
@lukehgomes
·
7h
Question: “How do you explain Dickson (Peter Dutton’s seat) which received $40 million and the next seat received $900,000. How do you explain that?”
PM’s answer: “Dickson must have a very good local member.”
Sir Henry Parkes:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 6:31 pm
[‘I saw earlier that one January 6 protestor in Washington received a 28-month jail sentence for threatening to “put a bullet in the head of Nancy Pelosi”. I would have thought that threatening the life of the US Congress’ presiding officer would have got someone a bit more time in the slammer than that. Once, maybe even a life sentence.’]
There’s a big difference between a threat and carrying it out. Whether he’s truly remorseful, as it seemed at his sentencing hearing, or was just dissembling is neither here nor there in the scheme of things. The fact that he got so emotional – crying – sends a powerful message to those who’d act likewise; that they’d be publicly humiliated. It’s almost like the stocks of old.
“ Now, in the shorter term, if we could get some SA state polling soon, that’d be real nice (Sorry, I know I am starting to sound like a broken record in this regard.)”
I agree there is nothing coming out of SA regarding polling data.
The other thing is both parties are required to win seats, no one currently has a majority.
Which seats are in play? And also where will the X vote go? There is plenty to play out.
I repeat
I would trust the States withhold their endorsement of the ACCC nomination by Frydenberg
It is not only rorts it is partisan political appointments by government to the Public Service and to non government organisations
This federal government is a disgrace at every level
Zerlo:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 7:44 pm
Actually, Dutton would be a good local member.
Confessions @ #1948 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 6:41 pm
When all else fails, panic.
Burgey @ 5.57 pm:
Many thanks for your suggestion. I have managed to secure an appointment at a local pharmacy in early January, only seven days after the five month timeline on my vaccination expires.
I know well the corner of Darling Street where that pharmacy is these days. For nearly sixty years my grandfather owned a menswear store about four shops along Darling Street from Victoria Road. These days I believe it is the Vinnies shop. I doubt that the beautiful red cedar fittings, built by my great grandfather who was a cabinet maker, still exist.
Boerwar says Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 6:45 pm
I seriously doubt many people can. If you count one number per second (easy for the first ten thousand or so) then, according to my calculations, it will take you over 443 years. That’s if you counted non stop (24 hours a day, 7 days a week, etc).
If you stuck to a 40 hour week (assuming 46 weeks a year) then I think it would take over 2000 years.
Now as much as I would like living a couple of millennia, I’m not sure it would be worth it just to spend my working hours counting to 14 billion.
ar:
Pretty much.
There’s also anecdotal reports from my local area that GPs don’t have enough vaccine stock for people to get their boosters early.
Another vaccination mess thanks to our federal govt.
Onya Dom. You must be so proud.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/disastrous-insurance-regulator-gives-sober-review-of-icare-at-inquiry-20211215-p59ht0.html
Any treasurer who misplaces $14 billion… uh, oh.
Can Perrotet count to fourteen?
Take out iron ore, coal, tourism services to Chinese tourists, student services to Chinese students, sundries like barley and crays, then pretty well all the sub options become moot.
I predict with confidence that whatever decisions are made about the subs will be OBE well before any boats hit the water.
I don’t agree Mavis, it might be nice to get lots of taxpayers money spent locally but not at the expense of more deserving communities.
11 hours since moderna booster.
De nada, thus far.
Some lies are so eggregious they need to be slapped down.
“ nath says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 5:43 pm
An Independent anti-Corruption body tasked with investigating the preceding government? Doesn’t seem consistent.”
Why? If the Liberals were concerned about inquiries into past behaviour they would not have launched inquiries into Bill Shorten and Julia Gillard’s behaviour as young union officials and lawyers, years before they even entered parliament.
So if we are going to be consistent the Liberals will welcome inquiries into the past behaviour of any past members of parliament. These might be over allegations of conflict of interest, undeclared interests, issuing unlawful orders, issuing illegally authorised grants, denying natural justice to Australian citizens on benefits, holding secret trials with no evident national security grounds, and uninvestigated allegations of personal criminal conduct. That is all Australia wants too – consistency.
If investigations of alleged past wrongdoing were improper police could wind up their cold case units too.
There is nothing unlawful or unethical with investigation of alleged past wrongdoing. The only question is whether there is evidence. If the allegation has already been independently investigated there may be an argument for double jeopardy. But even that can be waived with fresh evidence. And if the allegations haven’t even been fully read according to the responsible Ministers, then it is hard to see how that would stop the sorts of investigations I am envisaging.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 8:15 pm
Some lies are so eggregious they need to be slapped down.
“ nath says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 5:43 pm
An Independent anti-Corruption body tasked with investigating the preceding government? Doesn’t seem consistent.”
______________
You aren’t slapping me down if you don’t even understand the point I was making.
[‘Queensland’s COVID peak coming in ‘weeks’ not months.
Queensland’s top doctor has warned coronavirus cases will peak faster than expected, possibly within weeks instead of months, as the highly contagious Omicron strain spreads.
Modelling that underpinned Queensland’s road map, completed in October when Delta was the major variant, predicted there would be 100 deaths in the first 90 days after reopening, 100 new daily infections by January and up to 1000 new daily cases by mid-2022.
But Chief Health Officer John Gerrard said things had changed since the arrival of Omicron, which was much more contagious than Delta.
“Most of us now believe that the speed with which we will reach a peak is probably faster than we originally anticipated,” he said.
“I think it’s probably we’re talking more in the weeks than the months.
“What we’re seeing in New South Wales and the United Kingdom is very much faster, so we will be seeing that in the coming days and weeks and I think we can reasonably expect that Omicron will spread in Queensland in the coming weeks.
“It won’t be a surprise. We are not going to change our plans.”]
I wonder if any of them really know how it’ll pan out. Palaszczuk had it under control – seven deaths – but I wonder why she changed tack seemingly at whim, as has Andrews. Cud Chewer’s caveats may’ve been presicent, but surely not as bad as he contended(?).
Nath
What other point? Are you suggesting governments only get to investigate themselves?
What shall we call it? The Porter Principal?
Socrates says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 8:26 pm
Nath
What other point? Are you suggesting governments only get to investigate themselves?
____________
Obviously the point I am making is that you can’t have an Independent anti-Corruption inquiry that is ‘tasked’ by the current government into looking into their political opponents.
Boerwar
Good for you re Moderna booster.
You might feel a little bit woozy half way through the night or tomorrow morning. But you shouldn’t react to it any worse than your first dose.
The Sokrates principle – I wasn’t there at the siege of the electoral office, only my good friends where at it and told me all about it.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 8:28 pm
Boerwar
Good for you re Moderna booster.
You might feel a little bit woozy half way through the night or tomorrow morning. But you shouldn’t react to it any worse than your first dose.
——————
Soc, thanks.
Boerwar at 8:13 pm
What did you have first time around ?
Bugger an ICAC.
Labor should institute a Royal Commission with the broadest possible TOR to root out the massive and systemic corruption of the past three governments.
Socrates, I’d do some specific royal commissions into say robodebt with charges to be laid if anything illegal was done. Oh that’s right, all the ministers concerned were told it was illegal.
This mob would make the mob blush.
It’s going to take time for FICAC to be set up anyway.
Really get it up ’em.
p
2xAZ, the second of which 5.5 months ago.
nath says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 8:28 pm
I think the ‘I’ has been amply described. Nothing like the multiple RC’s that the Coalitions decided to conduct. But keep throwing shade 😉
This is what Albanese said, according to The Guardian:“I put the prime minister on notice that a national anti-corruption commission will be able to look at the sports rorts program and these rorted programs of taxpayer funds.”
“Will be able” is a bit different to the headlines say “it will” .
Remember Morrison’s model for a Clayton’s anti-corruptiopn commission cannot look at events in the past.
And also remember Abbott’s Royal Commisssions into Labor’s time included giving them access to cabinet documents.
A few people said at the time that precedent might bite the Liberals on the bum some time.
Aqualung says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 8:31 pm
Socrates, I’d do some specific royal commissions into say robodebt with charges to be laid if anything illegal was done. Oh that’s right, all the ministers concerned were told it was illegal.
This mob would make the mob blush.
It’s going to take time for FICAC to be set up anyway.
Really get it up ’em.
________
I completely agree. This has real bite and the deaths involved really justify it.
I wouldn’t really have a clue…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-15/log4j-cyber-security-flaw-which-has-online-experts-worried/100703290
I am with you on that Boer, a full audit of every item of expenditure with the powers of a royal commission.
And with regards to investigating previous Governments, all you do is write legislation that gives power to investigate all previous activities.
A proper FICAC would do me just fine. No sugar hit of an RC required.
EDIT: grammar
Rossmcg says:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 8:36 pm
“Will be able” is a bit different to the headlines say “it will” .
_______
Which is different to what was being reported on here earlier, and if what you say is correct then consistent with an Independent anti-Corruption body.
Mavis @ #1964 Wednesday, December 15th, 2021 – 7:25 pm
About the same as in the UK, US, and everywhere else that threw in the towel.
I assume it’s as simple as nobody wants “they ruined my holidays with their covid restrictions” on them come the next election.
ICAC / IBac – how much corruption/ how many politicians have actually gone to the big house?
Great way to spend millions to enrich barristers not much more. Still it appeals to some as a slogan I guess.
Will they even know about it in Deakin ?
If what I say is correct?
Read for yourself. The headline and the first paragraph are not matched by the quote.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/15/future-corruption-watchdog-would-investigate-coalitions-alleged-pork-barrelling-of-grants-albanese
Sloppy journalism by the reporter and the sub-editor.
Quite a thoughtful analysis by Monbiot:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/15/border-walls-triggering-ecological-disaster-humanity-wildlife-habitats-extinction
Grany Anny:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 8:12 pm
[‘I don’t agree Mavis, it might be nice to get lots of taxpayers money spent locally but not at the expense of more deserving communities.’]
True. It stinks. But if you’re the secretary of a local tennis club, which has four artificial grass courts built on one’s submission to the local member, who are you going to vote for? In point of fact, I prefer ent-tout-cas to artificial grass, even though as the then secretary of the Kiama Tennis Association, my no-good opponent beat me on the grass in the ’88 final. I have since rued the day that I sucked up to the local member.
Did somebody mention tennis?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/21/upmarket-tennis-and-golf-clubs-among-recipients-of-major-sports-grants
Lars, It’s always good as a deterrent. Bob Carr did say once:
“It keeps my party’s criminal faction in check”
Although, clearly not sufficiently.
Perhaps nath, but the 2 party duopoly has worked out how to play them as the IBac inquiry shows.
Some might resign no one goes to the big house.
Probably Eddie Obeid and McDonald are the only exceptions – but the cops could have done that anyway
Boerwar, Aqualung and others
I think we can but agree on the need for investigations, if not an RC, on the multiple illegal actions of the Morrison government already identified.
One of the mistakes Obama made was not putting those who caused the GFC on trial when he took power. It only emboldened them, and weakened him. Albo should not be vindictive, but when unlawful procedures like Robodebt cause deaths of innocent people, there must be accountability, or we end up going down the rabbit hole like USA.
Plus we are only talking about the illegality that has already been reported. Who knows what else will come to light with a proper ICAC and whistleblower protection in place. I suspect there might be quite a lot more we don’t know.
a r:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 8:45 pm
[‘I assume it’s as simple as nobody wants “they ruined my holidays with their covid restrictions” on them come the next election.’]
Could be though I get the feeling they know more than they’re revealing, that the mutant is not as serious as envisioned, that they are obliged nonetheless to appear serious about it.
LVT
“Will they even know about it in Deakin ?”
My Great Aunt Brunhilde, who lives in Croydon, said to me today: “ScoMo and his ministers are a bunch of crooks. Especially that horrible Michael Sukker, or whatever his name is. Up to his beady eyes he is in corruption. Kakuru, my favourite great nephew, I want a federal ICAC now!”
“Could be though I get the feeling they know more than they’re revealing, that the mutant is not as serious as envisioned, that they are obliged nonetheless to appear serious about it.”
You wouldn’t want to take into account how the PM and the Libs in NSW have at every single decision point advocated for exactly the wrong thing or in respect of that Ruby Princess, actually invited it in and facilitated the disease.
I don’t understand why the people of NSW are (edit:) NOT rioting in the streets against their corrupt and incompetent govt. Then again perhaps the NSW govt is perfect representation of the the population.
With 20% price growth in property wwp everybody in Sydney thinks they are rich or are about to get rich .
How sensible that is – is a different matter .
“With 20% price growth in property wwp everybody in Sydney thinks they are rich or are about to get rich .
How sensible that is – is a different matter .”
Western Australia was established as a real estate scam, so I can’t be too judgemental I guess.
Friendly Jordies had a video tribute to how great Lend Lease is, and isn’t it wonderful that the LNP Govt is essentially and wholly owned subsidiary of Lend Lease.
But if you are all getting rich on the property ladder, party on.
https://youtu.be/5s3RLl_xq7M
I think I shared this before, but Mr Pie has posted it to his own stream.
WeWantPaul:
Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 9:23 pm
Paul,
[‘I don’t understand why the people of NSW are rioting in the streets against their corrupt and incompetent govt. Then again perhaps the NSW govt is perfect representation of the the population.’]
I’m finding it more & more difficult to maintain the rage; it’s not a good sentiment – it occurred 46 years ago.
“I’m finding it more & more difficult to maintain the rage”
Fair enough, and to be fair a lot of civilisations tend to collapse from within or be destroyed from without, hard work to build something better from within. Best by far to fiddle and watch from the sidelines.