Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor

The last Morgan poll for the year maintains its recent form with a huge lead for Labor. Also: the fortnightly Essential Research and more Victorian state polling.

What is presumably the last Morgan federal voting intention poll for the year maintains the recent trend of this series in favour of Labor with a 56.5-43.5 lead on two-party preferred, out further from 55.5-44.5 last time. Also as per usual with this series, this credits Labor with what seems an improbably strong flow of preferences, the primary votes being Coalition 34.5% (down one), Labor 36% (up half), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). A result is provided for the United Australia Party for the first time, and it’s all of 1%.

The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, for a swing to Labor of around 8% compared with the 2019 election; 58.5-41.5 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 5.5%); 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%); 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 6% and 64.5-35.5 in South Australia (out from 55.5-44.5, a swing of 14%). The Tasmanian result, from a particularly meagre sample, lands well off the path at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Liberals, a swing in their favour of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from an online and phone sample of 2805.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research survey, on this occasion offering neither voting intention nor leadership approval. The regular question on COVID-19 management found the federal government’s good rating up two to 47% and bad down four to 25%, its best result since July. The New South Wales government’s good rating was down one to 56%, Victoria’s was up one to 51%, Queensland’s was down four to 56%, South Australia’s was up nine to 60% and Western Australia’s was down five to 74%, small sample sizes being the order of the day in the case of the last few.

The poll also finds 34% agreeing with Scott Morrison’s attack on ICAC over Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation with 31% disagreeing and 36% on the fence. However, 53% supported the establishment of a federal commission, with no indication of how many were actively opposed. Other questions find 61% in favour of compulsory vaccination for all adults without a medical exemption, with only 20% opposed, and 28% support for the proposition that governments should on no account impose lockdowns, with 48% opposed. Forty-nine per cent want more evidence on omicron before changing requirements and restrictions, compared with 34% who want proactive tightening and 16% no change regardless. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.

Also out this week was a Redbridge Group poll Victorian state poll for the Herald Sun that targeted eight marginal seats: Eureka (formerly Wendouree), Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo (formerly Yuroke) and Melton. This was rather less good for Labor than other recent polling, with primary votes of Labor 36% (down 9.5% from the results in these seats at the 2018 election, adjusted as appropriate for the new redistribution), Liberal 28.8% (down 2.3%), the Greens 8% (down 0.7%) and, strikingly 8% for the United Australia Party and 5% for One Nation, neither of whom contested last time, quite apart from an unchanged 11% for independents and other minor parties. The latter development makes preference projections particularly uncertain, but a result is provided of 54-46 to Labor, a swing against them of around 4%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28 from a sample of 2442.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,023 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor”

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  1. Bongo on the ALP’s Climate Change policy, and what others think…

    ‘After holding his fire for the past two years, Albanese unveiled his climate policies. He and the Climate Change shadow minister, Chris Bowen, have certainly been doing their homework, determined not to be vulnerable to the sort of attacks Morrison was able to launch against Labor’s 2019 effort.

    The policy, with its 43 per cent emissions reduction by 2030, uses the same framework earlier proposed by the Business Council of Australia. It strengthens the safeguard mechanism designed originally by the Liberals’ Greg Hunt and adopted when Morrison was treasurer. This market-based device puts pressure on 215 of the biggest emitters and gives them an incentive to reduce their pollution.

    Detailed modelling by RepuTex, a leading provider of energy market pricing and analysis, fills any gaps on costs and jobs raised last time voters went to the polls. Its credibility is bolstered by the way it dovetails with the modelling produced by Deloitte Access Economics for the Business Council.

    The Greens are particularly unimpressed. Their leader, Adam Bandt, condemns Labor’s weak target, saying it is “a recipe for climate collapse”. Their 75 per cent reduction target by 2030 can lay claim to taking the science more seriously, but it is more the policy of a ginger group than a party vying for government.

    Albanese’s carefully crafted policy has been welcomed, as he never tires of saying, by the leading business and industry groups, the Australian Council of Trade Unions and the National Farmers’ Federation. There is every sign Morrison has been flummoxed by Albanese’s shrewd outflanking of him.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2021/12/11/white-knuckle-dragger/163914120013067


  2. Confessionssays:
    Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 6:56 am
    Scott Morrison has always needed Gladys Berejiklian more than she’s needed him.

    As a freshly installed Prime Minister facing what many thought was an unwinnable election, he flung himself onto her election party coat-tails as the then-NSW premier pulled off an unexpected victory in 2019.

    He would pull her close again a year later as the nation plunged into the unknown depths of the coronavirus pandemic, fresh from Morrison having having been singed from both a Hawaiian holiday as the nation burned and the sports rorts scandal.

    Leveraging Berejiklian’s personal popularity with punters has always been politically opportunistic, made more interesting by the fact that from many accounts the two could barely stand each other.

    Enter Warringah. It had been a safe Liberal seat for decades in the hands of Tony Abbott — and a desperate Morrison was keen to see it brought back into the fold.

    But this wasn’t about getting a new job for a person he often tells the media is a close friend. The PM’s now-failed bid to get Berejiklian to Canberra had a much more selfish goal: keeping his own job.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-11/scott-morrison-needed-gladys-berejiklian-more-than-she-needs-him/100689538

    Hard to argue with that! Zali Steggall will be breathing a sigh of relief too that Gladys isn’t running.

    I heard that when comparing with the fable story where the Sorcerer keeps his life in a parrot, she is the parrot in current political climate . 🙂

  3. Fess

    Trump will continue to give the impression he is running so he can continue to grift the gullible fools who follow him.

    For him it has always been about the money.

    He will not win the nominee. He will be found to be a traitor. In fact his actual presidency will be called into questioned.

    Watch this space

  4. “Vic:

    I keep reading commentary saying “if” Trump runs in 2024. Not only do I think it’s a certainty that he will run, but he will also win the Republican nomination.”

    – Not only do I think it’s a certainty he will win the Republican nomination, it’s a near certainty, barring illness or death, that he will win the general election, most likely legitimately, fair and square – and with at least a 70% chance of a plurality or majority of the popular vote.

  5. Also there is the Georgia shit show. Trump was trying to find 11,000 votes.

    Trump will have to face the consequences of this as well.

    Nah. He wont be the nominee.

  6. From a British television presenter:
    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire · 4h
    My brother’s triple-jabbed – the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday – all of them vaccinated – 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

  7. EB and JimmyD,
    I’ve not spoken to our Western Sydney MPs recently so I can only guess. Paramatta Moderate may have better ear to the ground intel than I do. But if anyone worked harder than our Western Sydney NSW state MPs during the lockdown to get things rectified, I don’t know them. 🙂

    Tony Bourke has also done a lot of the heavy lifting for his electorate during the NSW lockdown.

    I just think that the Liberals have reached peak Morrison out there.

  8. zoomster @ #15 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 7:37 am

    If the government – Labor or Liberal – has to negotiate on each and every piece of legislation with each and every independent, sound government will become impossible.’

    https://theaimn.com/independents-are-not-the-answer-to-our-problems/?fbclid=IwAR3hgrjF6sFvv5SoJYvbUsEqf2sfP989snnVFKYoDwfGfU-Ip9c0KRkoRfc

    Yeah, nup. You may want to read this one, by an actual Independent who not only made government with Independents possible, he made it work better than any government in recent history. He also specifically refutes the main argument in the above article:

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2021/12/11/letter-future-independents/163914120013062

  9. “– Not only do I think it’s a certainty he will win the Republican nomination, it’s a near certainty, barring illness or death, that he will win the general election, most likely legitimately, fair and square – and with at least a 70% chance of a plurality or majority of the popular vote.”

    He can’t win it fair and square it is a rigged election going into it, it would have to be unrigged very quickly for any republican to have a fair and square win.

  10. Fess

    It’s way too early to write the govt off yet in my view.

    This lot are far too adept at using taxpayer’s funds, pork barrelling and sand bagging their seats to shore up votes.

    That’s a fair call, and certainly if such a campaign was successful it may prevent them losing seats in NSW. What I don’t see is how they pick up enough seats here to counteract losses in the other states.

    I guess my essential argument is there is nothing special or unusual about NSW that will cause it to behave differently from the rest of the country.

  11. Victoria has recorded 1,193 new local COVID-19 cases and 13 deaths, as authorities confirm another two new cases of the Omicron variant in Melbourne from returned international travellers.

    There are now 11,457 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 595 people have died during the current outbreak.

    There are 323 people in hospital, of whom 68 are in intensive care and 29 are on a ventilator.

    A further 44 people are in ICU but their infections are no longer considered active.

    The new cases were detected from 82,895 test results received yesterday.

    The health department confirmed there were three cases of the Omicron variant in Victoria.

    Two people who travelled from Dubai to Melbourne on November 30 are confirmed to have the Omicron strain, while genomic sequencing is under way to confirm if a third COVID-positive person on the flight is carrying the Omicron variant.

    The state’s first case was confirmed on Wednesday, and was a returned traveller in hotel quarantine.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-11/victoria-records-more-covid-cases-and-deaths/100692616

  12. “The truth is, China will stop at nothing until the West is lost”, writes Greg Sheridan.

    Lovely to see Abbott fanboi Sheridan can now set off on a second childhood. After being nurtured on reds under every bed, BA Santamaria and the ubiquity of nefarious USSR plots to take down the West the poor “Cold War Warrior” chap has been bereft since the Berlin Wall fell. He perked up no end when Dubya set off on his GWOT crusade but that all turned into a pile of lies and shit. But now ‘Hurrah ! ” something that can see him party like it’s 1974 4eva.

  13. It also appears that the Coalition are trying to turn whole demographics against Labor in other areas as well. Hence the ‘Labor is on the side of China’ meme, which humorously is having a negative effect on the Liberal’s Chinese vote due to Dutton’s anti China bellicosity and the fact some Chinese Australians may actually like their government to be a bit more China friendly.

    Also, the story by Karen Middleton in The Saturday Paper about the Liberals spending up big on facebook and Instagram ads to try and shore up the Jewish vote after Christensen’s gauche appearance on Info Wars laughing at a comparison between quarantine and the Holocaust, also points to this microtargeting approach which the Liberals are using and hoping for success with.

  14. From Bongo’s piece.

    As much as I like Gillard, I would have to agree with Albo here.

    Also Bongo highlights a critical element is Labor’s policy, it neutralises the politics which should allow Labor to start Australia acting and establish something that can’t be torn down.

    Anthony Albanese will not be repeating what he sees as the mistake Julia Gillard made by entering into a formal agreement with the Greens for support of her minority government in 2010. He has form in this area.

    In June 2013, when he became deputy prime minister after Kevin Rudd’s successful coup against Gillard, Albanese had a meeting in Parliament House’s Monkey Pod room with Adam Bandt. It takes its name from the prominent timber table made of tropical hardwood. It’s the place where Liberal conservatives famously lunched and plotted against Malcolm Turnbull.

    On this occasion it was where the new-look Labor government sent the Greens packing. Bandt came in with a list of demands for his support of the reinstalled prime minister on the floor of the house. Albanese said there would be no deals – if Bandt helped bring down Rudd he would surely lose his seat. When he originally took the seat of Melbourne from Labor, Bandt had campaigned on the assurance he would support a Labor government.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2021/12/11/white-knuckle-dragger/163914120013067#mtr

  15. poroti says: Friday, December 10, 2021 at 8:53 pm

    Wat Tyler

    I type while enjoying a cold one on this Friday evening.

    Same here Bigly Cheers ! First beer in a long time. Celebrating getting 2 thumbs up today from GP after a stack of tests this week. A bit nervous as a year ago this week seeing my GP sent me on a ‘journey’ that ended with a Texas Chainsaw Massacre on my heart Davai !

    **************************************************

    From yesterday – Good News Poroti – TAKE CARE BRO : )

  16. “Nostradamus

    Thanks for the laugh.

    Too bloody funny.”

    I predict you won’t be laughing when my prediction comes to pass. And you’ll all be saying it is a dark day for the world. But I disagree. It’ll just be a dark day for the LEFT.

  17. None of us know what the future holds, but unless he either dies or is in jail, Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee in 2024. Honestly, he would probably still win it from a prison cell. It doesn’t matter what comes out in the Jan 6 investigation, or the Ghislaine Maxwell trial, or if video footage emerges of Trump eating babies while using the constitution as a napkin – it’s all just fake news to his devotees.

    Forget the polling, just look at how all the other realistic contenders are acting. Near every one is too terrified to even hint that they would consider running against Trump. Whenever they talk about a potential run, it’s with the same qualifier: “If Trump doesn’t run.”

    Liz Cheney is yesterday’s news, as far as the modern Republican party is concerned. She might not even win the primary for her congressional seat.

    As for the general election… Who knows? I think it’s increasingly unlikely Biden will run for a second term, and it’s far from guaranteed that Harris would be the nominee either. So, anything could happen there, really.

  18. UK Cartoons – bumper crop today!:









    The weekly Dave Brown in the style of:

    The original Chardin – Still Life with Bottle, Glass and Loaf

  19. Outsider / Alpo: (on polls being fed into BludgerTrack)

    William can correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure he puts in the primaries from each poll and then works out the TPP based on previous election preferences. Morgan uses respondent allocated preferences, which historically are rather less reliable.

  20. C@t:

    There was an opinion article in the Washington Post today with exactly that theory, only suggesting it could be Chris Christie who can craft Trumpish rhetoric to appeal to the MAGAers while still appearing sensible enough not to repel educated white Republicans from voting GOP.

    Personally I think the sooner Never Trumpers such as the author of that article realise their party is gone, the sooner they can start to rebuild something that is a genuine governing alternative to Democrats. The Republican party as its been known throughout history is dead, replaced with the Trump party of cranks, crooks and conspiracy theorists.

  21. “Trump winning in 2024 with 70% of the vote?”
    I think Nostro said a 70% chance of controlling both houses. By the way, as much as I find the thought of Trump winning repugnant, I also think he will win. We are talking about the USA, not Norway, after all.

  22. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 9:20 am

    On this occasion it was where the new-look Labor government sent the Greens packing. Bandt came in with a list of demands for his support of the reinstalled prime minister on the floor of the house. Albanese said there would be no deals…

    Albo clearly understands there can be no parlaying with the Greens. There will be no deals. Mind you, the best thing for Labor will be when Bandt asks for a deal and Labor publicly refuse him. Rejection is an instrument too, as Morrison discovered this week when Berejiklian declined his appeals over Warringah. Abbott used rejection again and again to advantage himself in relation to Gillard. Likewise, the Greens rejected Gillard’s entreaties over the Malaysian Solution and Morrison himself has used it against the Lites. Rejection is a useful political device. There will likely be much use made of rejection in the coming Parliament.

  23. [‘But this wasn’t about getting a new job for a person he often tells the media is a close friend. The PM’s now-failed bid to get Berejiklian to Canberra had a much more selfish goal: keeping his own job.’]

    In a perverse way, Maguire deserves some credit for eliminating Berejiklian from the federal election; for had she not fallen head over heels in love with him, she would’ve been a powerful force in the federal election, where she would have been prominent on the hustings with her dear friend (at least from his perspective) Morrison. Now, it’s highly unlikely that she’ll be seen on the campaign trail.

    Whereas publicly Morrison says he respects Berejiklian’s decision not to stand in Warringah, privately he’d be well aware of the political detriment of losing a valuable asset, who’s genuinely popular in the electorate (probably limited to NSW), even after her grilling by the ICAC, most likely leading to losses in NSW, which he can ill-afford, and which will restrict his travel to other states where he’s in trouble.

  24. Sohar @ #86 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 10:28 am

    “Trump winning in 2024 with 70% of the vote?”
    I think Nostro said a 70% chance of controlling both houses. By the way, as much as I find the thought of Trump winning repugnant, I also think he will win. We are talking about the USA, not Norway, after all.

    And that’s where I think it will get interesting. I just listened to a snippet of the Steve Bannon podcast with Matt Gaetz, and they’re talking about some really serious Trump Totalitarian takeover of everything shit there! That, as soon as he wins, there are 4000 hand-picked storm troopers for Trump ready to be placed into positions of power to take power away from everyone else. Then onwards and upwards from there for them.

    However, the White Supremacists aren’t the only ones with guns over there and when, not if, push comes to shove, there will be pitched battles in the streets of America.

    Donald Trump is a cancer on the body politic, as are his followers, and democracy is in the fight of its life.

  25. Player One @ #89 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 7:38 am

    Bludging Bloos @ #86 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 10:32 am

    Albo clearly understands there can be no parlaying with the Greens. There will be no deals..

    Albo clearly understands that he cannot admit there will be parlaying with the Greens. There will be deals.

    You really can’t distinguish between making a deal to form a Government and negotiating on individual legislation.

  26. Mavis says:
    Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 10:34 am

    PMs are supposed to be able to get their own way in political matters. Morrison has been refused by Berejiklian and some wind has been taken from his sails. He looks under-powered, and not for the first time. He has described himself that way (not able to hold a hose); Macron gutted him; the Premiers have all refused him from time to time. And Gladys turned him down. Pay back for Morrison. Clearly, his peers and his alternates will not to oblige him and there’s nothing he can do about it. His leadership is purely titular now. He’s cactus.

  27. Mavis at 10:34 am
    Yes indeed , praise be to “our Boo” . Onya Dazza . ‘The Woman Who Saved Australia’ would have made a nice accessory for SfM to swan about with in Sydney/NSW.

  28. Player One says:
    Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 10:38 am
    Bludging Bloos @ #86 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 10:32 am

    Albo clearly understands there can be no parlaying with the Greens. There will be no deals..
    Albo clearly understands that he cannot admit there will be parlaying with the Greens. There will be deals.

    Albo has form. He’s against deals. Not only does he say so, he has told his wanne-be counter-parties to get lost. Makes sense. Makes perfect sense. You do not place your safety in the hands of your enemies. They will slit your political throat if they’re invited into your tent.

    Labor will not be a Parliamentary Trojan Horse for the policies of its enemies. End of story.

  29. Briefly,

    But, Morrison will just keep on shape shifting till he finds something that works.

    He’s got as many cunning plans as Baldrick of Black Adder fame.

  30. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 10:49 am
    Briefly,

    But, Morrison will just keep on shape shifting till he finds something that works.

    He will doubtless try. He could reprise the daggy dad act. But this is not likely to work. A daggy dad is a joke, not a PM. He needs to project a sense of power…of strength, safety, reliability and capacity. Instead, he’s become a leader in name only. He does not project power. He projects its absence. No PM will last long if they project only their incapacity. Power is ebbing away from him. I think Berejiklian just slipped the stiletto between his no-good Liberal ribs.

  31. I mean, really, who would believe what a goose like Player One has to say about Albanese? Someone with less than zero idea about what is really going on.

  32. PO
    Albo certainly does have form. He is nominally from the Left, but is leader by virtue of a deal he did with the Right.???

    You need to get a life change, and get away from that keyboard.!!!! PO

  33. Briefly,

    While all that may be true, the reality is that Morrison is always talking to his base and those cohorts he believes can be be persuaded by the stunts and rhetoric he uses to make his points. There is a large part of the voting community that is disengaged from politics. There are others that are rusted on anti Laborites. There are groups that are being taken in by the conspiracy theories.

    You may see through the Morrison charades. However, Morrison doesn’t care. He’s not talking to you.

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