What is presumably the last Morgan federal voting intention poll for the year maintains the recent trend of this series in favour of Labor with a 56.5-43.5 lead on two-party preferred, out further from 55.5-44.5 last time. Also as per usual with this series, this credits Labor with what seems an improbably strong flow of preferences, the primary votes being Coalition 34.5% (down one), Labor 36% (up half), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). A result is provided for the United Australia Party for the first time, and it’s all of 1%.
The state-level two-party preferred breakdowns include a number of eyebrow-raisers, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, for a swing to Labor of around 8% compared with the 2019 election; 58.5-41.5 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 5.5%); 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51.5-45.5, a swing of 13%); 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 6% and 64.5-35.5 in South Australia (out from 55.5-44.5, a swing of 14%). The Tasmanian result, from a particularly meagre sample, lands well off the path at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Liberals, a swing in their favour of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from an online and phone sample of 2805.
Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research survey, on this occasion offering neither voting intention nor leadership approval. The regular question on COVID-19 management found the federal government’s good rating up two to 47% and bad down four to 25%, its best result since July. The New South Wales government’s good rating was down one to 56%, Victoria’s was up one to 51%, Queensland’s was down four to 56%, South Australia’s was up nine to 60% and Western Australia’s was down five to 74%, small sample sizes being the order of the day in the case of the last few.
The poll also finds 34% agreeing with Scott Morrison’s attack on ICAC over Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation with 31% disagreeing and 36% on the fence. However, 53% supported the establishment of a federal commission, with no indication of how many were actively opposed. Other questions find 61% in favour of compulsory vaccination for all adults without a medical exemption, with only 20% opposed, and 28% support for the proposition that governments should on no account impose lockdowns, with 48% opposed. Forty-nine per cent want more evidence on omicron before changing requirements and restrictions, compared with 34% who want proactive tightening and 16% no change regardless. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
Also out this week was a Redbridge Group poll Victorian state poll for the Herald Sun that targeted eight marginal seats: Eureka (formerly Wendouree), Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo (formerly Yuroke) and Melton. This was rather less good for Labor than other recent polling, with primary votes of Labor 36% (down 9.5% from the results in these seats at the 2018 election, adjusted as appropriate for the new redistribution), Liberal 28.8% (down 2.3%), the Greens 8% (down 0.7%) and, strikingly 8% for the United Australia Party and 5% for One Nation, neither of whom contested last time, quite apart from an unchanged 11% for independents and other minor parties. The latter development makes preference projections particularly uncertain, but a result is provided of 54-46 to Labor, a swing against them of around 4%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28 from a sample of 2442.
In regards the Colossal Fossil, he should never have gained preselection
Michael Towke
And Hawke’s sole function is Bible Group numbers – hence the involvement in preselections
Noting the defections from the Bible Group headed by Kelly and others on their way out
They are all God botherer Right Wingers and where Kelly and the others getting publicity are just plain bog typical
What a mess the Liberal Party has become post Howard
Cricket trivia. The Chappell brothers’ maternal grandfather was Vic Richardson, a rare one, who excelled in a number of sports other than cricket – Aussie Rules, tennis, lacrosse, baseball, and swimming.
Asha
I report. You decide.
If I remember right, there is now a trend emerging with Redbridge poling indicating significant support for the UAP regardless of where the poll is taken. Yet we have a national Morgan poll showing them on 1 percent. We really need to see more poling of UAP, and I certainly hope to see them included in Newspoll from the beginning of next year so we can try and get a handle on what support they actually have. My own gut feel, and probably not much else, is that they will probably land around 4 percent national primary vote, remembering that they have stated that they will stand candidates in every seat. Of course, they will likely do considerably better than this in some seats, while hardly registering in others.
This decision will surprise none who follow the politics of the SCOTUS, with Trump’s nominees – Gorsuch, Kavanagh, Coney Barrett – doing his bidding:
[‘The conservative-leaning US Supreme Court refused on Friday to block a Texas law that bans most abortions after six weeks, but left the door open for abortion providers to challenge the law in lower courts.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on December 1 about a Mississippi law that would ban most abortions after 15 weeks, and the court’s conservative wing — which includes three justices nominated by Donald Trump — appeared ready to uphold the law and perhaps even go further and overturn Roe.’]
At her Senate hearing Coney Barrett said (wwtte) that in deciding cases, her religious beliefs wouldn’t influence her decisions – ha!
And to tie the Morrison/Trump Axis of Evil together, with the production of Pentecostal zealot lawyer and author of the How To Insurrection Power Point, Jenna Ellis, what we need to do, as supporters of secular democracy, is disable the intervention of these types so as to keep Church and State completely separate.
Today Josh doing his eternal blather about the recovering economy and warning us to “stay calm and carry on” over Omicron.
Because keeping everything open is more important than protecting ourselves against the virus. Obviously.
…and Trump somehow isn’t?
“Firefox
Future Chancellor right there”
***
For sure, she’s sure wasting no time getting into her new job either! First France, then Poland, and now she’s at the G7 meeting in the UK…
@ C@tmomma
Right on, momma. Theocracy is just another pseudonym for authoritanism/ dictatorship.
One only needs to look at the history of Christianity to see that beneath the veneer of love and caring lies the truth of it all- power.
As the desire for power is a human characteristic, all religions manifest it.
Next election we choose between a not- perfect democracy and theocracy.
Vote 1 for a Government of The People. Not a Government of The Party ( LNP / God)
In a development that will fill Shellbell with dread, Mitch Marsh just scored a 20 ball 50!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1469502419989975040
Afternoon bludgers. I wanted to post a link for a little holiday reading for those interested in the Aussie submarine saga. It is a review by the Rand corporation of the British Astute class SSN procurement. The beginning was a shambles, with the UK sub industry’s own post-cold war “valley of death” in the 1990s leading to a chronic lack of skills, delay and cost overruns by the late 2000s.
This was put right partly by a return to old management practices and partly USN help on the reactors and modular construction practices. The RN and USN now both successfully use modular construction on SSNs, as did Australia on the Canberra LPDs and Hunter Frigates.
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_MG1128.3.pdf
Irrespective of whether the RAN chooses Astute or Virginia subs, there are some very important lessons about how we build, as opposed to what we build.
1. SSNs are complicated, but not impossible. The UK went from lost skills to state of the art boats in a decade. The management and skills training are key.
2. Skills retention is critical to operating SSNs in the long term, and this requires a long term commitment to a continual build philosophy. In our case, launching one SSN every 3 to 3.5 years would work.
3. In that respect, as I have said before, this requires a long term national funding commitment, but otherwise should be managed the same as other comparable national projects. The principles are the same.
4. Modular construction is a perfect fit for Australia. The reactor modules would need to be built in UK or USA and assembled with the rest of the boat in Adelaide.
5. One of the first tasks should be upgrading the ASC yard to suit modular construction of both the current SSN class and future-proofed for whatever follows.
U.S. COVID update
– New cases: 152,672* …………………….. – New deaths: 2,104
– In hospital: 64,978 (+992)
– In ICU: 15,209 (+74)
* Excludes backlog of 20,907 cases which TX failed to report during the past week
817,326 total deaths now
Update on coronavirus outbreak at Christmas party in Oslo:
– 80 out of 111 participants later tested positive. All or most believed to be Omicron
– Everyone had a negative test before the event and nearly all were vaccinated
– 79 had symptoms, but no one was hospitalized
BW will like this. 🙂
Mysterious fake campaign posters of China’s president appear on Wollongong election day
https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100679890?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16391913430769&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2021-12-07%2Fmysterious-chinese-posters-appear-in-wollongong-election%2F100679890
Bit of a crush getting into the Aussie Nash…
Hillsong’s elders doing it rough at the Park Hyatt. I wonder if Houston’s bestie Morrison got an invite?
[‘Embattled Hillsong founding pastor Brian Houston has held secret meetings with his megachurch elders and board members over two days at one of Sydney’s most expensive hotels.
Dressed very casually and wearing his hair pulled back in a ponytail, Mr Houston engaged in serious discussions at the $1500-a-night Park Hyatt with the senior Hillsong figures over two days of seminars at the luxury harbourside establishment.
Hillsong’s Global Senior Pastor, Mr Houston stepped aside as board chairman in September after being charged five months ago by NSW Police.’]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10291333/Hillsongs-Brian-Houston-secret-meetings-luxury-hotel-megachurch-elders.html
Dandy
Well you definitely got your monies worth – in terms of spectacle, if not in terms of hours.
Player One @ #137 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 12:07 pm
So we have all noticed. From my observation of this blog, I believe it would be a really good idea if you took your own advice on board, and acted on it. Unfortunately for you, but not for us, that would leave you with nothing to say at all. Excellent.
BKsays:
Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 12:16 pm
From the bits I’ve seen he has very good footwork.
I also noticed Warner seemed to get wider and wider at first slip.
D&M,
My kids got an education in choice Anglo-Saxon phrases too.
Miss 6yo asked “Dad, why are they chanting ‘warship’ and ‘anchor’?”
Gettysburg1863 @ #159 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 2:13 pm
Thank you. 🙂
Because you know, once they are entrenched, and we can do no more about their tyranny, they will wind back the clock on all the Enlightenment and beyond gains, FAST.
Well, I watched Mike Nesmith’s final concert with Mickey Dolenz for 2 hours this afternoon. And it was great. And I cried. 🙁
https://youtu.be/ANnoq47QuR8
New report from UK Health on vaccine efficacy against Delta and Omicron.
Lots of interesting data on what Omicron is and how it behaves, with this key takeaway
‘early estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection find a significantly lower VE for against Omicron infection compared to Delta infection. Nevertheless, a moderate to high vaccine effectiveness of 70 to 75% is seen in the early period after a booster dose. With previous variants, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalisation and death, has been higher than effectiveness against mild disease. It will be a few weeks before effectiveness against severe disease with Omicron can be estimated, however based on this experience, this is likely to be substantially higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease. The duration of restored protection after mRNA boosting is not known at this juncture
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf
And this for those thinking about boosters – which I hope ATAGI are..
‘ An mRNA booster dose resulted in an increase in neutralising activity irrespective of primary vaccination type, including an increase in the proportion of samples that were above the limit of quantification. This is true regardless of which vaccine was used for the
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England Technical briefing 31
primary course. These data are from the early period after the booster and data are urgently required on the durability of neutralising activity.
Has Yabba changed his moniker to Leibniz?
Leibniz was a German mathematician whose mother’s name was Schmuck!
Dandy M
Oz culture at its finest 😀
We used to joke that Engineers spoke Anglo-Saxon as a first lounge.
GG
This I did not know.
I know that there is evidence that Newton probably discovered Calculus before Liebniz, but being Newton did not share it with anyone until Liebniz published, and then hounded Liebniz for calming “The Calculus” as his own.
It its Liebniz’s notation that has mostly stuck, although some of the notation we use in classical mechanics to me definitely seems reminiscent of the Principia.
Did I mention I am finalising an ARC grant today – last ever, and this time I REALLY mean it.
So, anyway all PB discussion that allow me to procrastinate are very welcome.
lizzie @ #146 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 12:30 pm
Thanks lizzie.
It’s worth noting that the paper is a preprint (as yet not peer reviewed) but reads well. There are a lot of variables and uncertainties at play. The final paragraph:
*Pfizer
**AZ
The booster issue has been on mind for a while, triggered by the emergence of Omicron, age, some co-morbidities (especially in MOH), and the emergence of the living-with-the-virus playbook, not to mention Christmas. The confounding messages were Omicron was spreading faster, but was looking clinically milder, at least so far, and that post vaccination we were seeing significantly declining antibody titres, but probably well sustained cell immunity responses.
The local messaging was unsatisfactory, as I posted a day or so ago – Hazzard saying to bang doors down and get boosted, Chant saying boosters approved for vulnerable cohorts, vulnerable cohort representatives saying confusion reigns, others calling for Govt messaging and reminders to be sent out.
The UK has reduced booster scheduling from 6 to 3 months in response to Omicron.
I called my GP (large practice in Oxford St, Paddington) on Thursday to be told they had *no vaccines*. Pressing whether that was actually no vaccines, or no vaccines for boosters, or no vaccines for me, was dead batted. I should ring back in January when they were expecting deliveries.
MOH called his GP (large practice in Darlinghurst). Same story. Get back to us in January.
So after the Abduls-jolly-good-fellows-get-together, we went to our friendly (of decades) chemist in Darlo. No shortage of vaccines. They get a delivery every two weeks. What the hell is going on.
I was at the 5 month mark, OH at 4 months but after a shortened between dose interval. No questions asked, other than a four page information and box ticking standard vaccine form. 10 minutes later we were both boosted with Pfizer. Five people done in the time we were there.
I was a bit wobbly for a day, with a sore arm and tiredness and that just can’t get warm feeling. But much happier. Hello World.
Overlapping or overlaying or same paging sprocket.
Thanks for the cell immunity link Griff, on the previous link.
And last night’s terrific discussions. I’ve ordered the Dinosaur book. Mucho thankos.
Player One says:
Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 12:07 pm
C@tmomma @ #130 Saturday, December 11th, 2021 – 11:56 am
Criticising the ALP by bringing up Terrigal, is just a slimy way of also attacking our current candidate.
Doubling down on stupidity is not generally a winning strategy….
P1 would certainly know about doubling down and generally not winning. The blog of experience there.
D & M,
The best procrastinator is there’s still 48 hours till submission.
That’s a Charddy excuse.
ItzaDream
“And last night’s terrific discussions. I’ve ordered the Dinosaur book. Mucho thankos.”
Last night’s discussion inspired me to look further into the Huns, which in turn prompted me to purchase a book about Attila the Hun just now. And while I had my credit card in hand, I threw in a contribution to Poll Bludger (long overdue, my apologies).
Itza
Fantastic that you and OH got your booster doses.
And it was a lovely lunch!
I get the impression that vaccine supply in Australia is still limited, as evidenced by only being able to get my 86 year-old mum’s booster three days early.
But, sigh, there is no transparency about supply.
GG
😀
That’s the thing. If someone said, sorry we’re sending it all to Africa, well, OK by me. But is it ending up in some bin, or stuck in a storage facility somewhere. Nothing would surprise me with Incompetence Rules in Canberra.
Matt31 says:
Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 1:26 pm
If I remember right, there is now a trend emerging with Redbridge poling indicating significant support for the UAP regardless of where the poll is taken. Yet we have a national Morgan poll showing them on 1 percent. We really need to see more poling of UAP, and I certainly hope to see them included in Newspoll from the beginning of next year so we can try and get a handle on what support they actually have. My own gut feel, and probably not much else, is that they will probably land around 4 percent national primary vote, remembering that they have stated that they will stand candidates in every seat. Of course, they will likely do considerably better than this in some seats, while hardly registering in others.
Matt….I will be astonished if UAP approach even 2% in WA, taken across the whole State. They might do a bit better in some districts in some seats, but in general they will be mostly ignored. The association with Palmer will be enough to repel nearly all voters. The RW Crazy brands have been notable failures in WA despite their repeated attempts to mobilise and occasional wild-card seat gains.
These days, an act of fierce rebellion against Mark MacGowan would be to vote for the Liberals….for a Q-attuned joke-party that has almost ceased to exist in any meaningful sense. Likewise, the Greens have been reduced to a mere shadow. The RW/Reactionary/Proto-Fascists are in widespread disarray here at the moment. The Recalcitrants are out of fashion.
I think we will see a re-statement of the March State results in the federal election. There’s no reason (at least, so far) for any vote-switching away from Labor, who have met all the expectations of voters. Meanwhile, the Liberals reprise their stupidities every week.
Kakuru
The discussion last night, which I skimmed this morning, was definitely PB at its best.
Climate has always been a strong element in geopolitical outcomes, and definitely seems to have played a large part in the successive migrations from Central Asia through to the Hungarian plain. The Huns were early adopters of this migratory route, followed by many others, including the Magyars about 1000 years ago.
Gibbon in his Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire has a great discussion on this, including whether the similarities between Finnish, Estonian and Hungarian, language-wise, indicate that the peoples arise from a similar population, or whether they intermingled in the migrations, and exchanged words which became common in both languages.
Last week I asked my pharmacist in Melbourne (Higgins electorate) about booster shot. He said he could not dispense without doctor’s authorisation (at risk of losing registration)
So Canberra is playing same old shitty games with boosters and primary school vax as played with vaccines in July this year. I am very tired of these dangerous, incompetent, divisive fools who play politics with MY life.
Pleased Itza got their boosters
D & M
Thanks. Very interesting. Haven’t read Gibbon. Got most of my Roman (and Byzantine) history from reading Michael Grant and Lord Norwich, and later Adrian Goldsworthy.
“ In regards”… yecch!
pritu
I feel your pain.
Can no journalist Can ask Morrison where are the water bombing planes he promised because WA needs them urgently.
Far more important than Gladys.
Dandy M @3.43 pm
….and what was your answer to the question posed by Miss 6?
Jill Biden says that her husband is not adversely cognitively affected, while a poll reveals that 48% think otherwise:
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/thats-ridiculous-jill-biden-fumes-at-question-about-her-husbands-mental-fitness/news-story/a5cda890d4a3291c61a99c8e4728abaf
Bearing in mind the “Goldwater Rule” (Section 7, APA), coupled with the fact that he passed his annual medical, there’s nothing much to see here.
ATAGI has ever so slightly relaxed the 6 months – to 5 months under certain conditions.
ATAGI advises that in certain circumstances, the routine six-month interval for booster doses may be shortened to five months for logistical reasons, for example:
for patients with a greater risk of severe COVID-19 in outbreak settings;
if an individual is travelling overseas and will be away when their booster dose is due;
or
in outreach vaccination programs where access is limited.
https://www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-statement-on-sars-cov-2-omicron-variant-and-covid-19-booster-doses
Those are only examples, so if you are travelling on holidays over the summer break away, you could argue ‘logistical reasons’ to get a booster at 5 months.
Kakuru
I find Gibbon amazing, because although he was writing at the end of there 18th century, there is nothing archaic about the language.
He writes in clear English, and is a great communicator. His personality comes through, and I reckon, if miraculously resurrected, he could write for the Guardian now on how things have panned put since 1800.
On the other hand, sybil, written by Benjamin Disraeli, around 1840, was fascinating to read, but it seems to me dated, with the language a bit obscure.
Since Gibbon, linguistics has advanced a fair bit!
The accepted hypothesis now is that there was a common language (Proto-Indo-European) from which other languages ‘descend’, which explains the similarities between them.
‘Michael Grant and Lord Norwich, and later Adrian Goldsworthy.’
Have read all of these (I think!)