The latest fortnightly federal poll from Roy Morgan records Labor’s lead increasing from 54-46 in the previous poll to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 35.5% of both the Coalition (down one) and Labor (up one), 12% for the Greens (up half) and 3.5% for One Nation (steady). It has been noted that the two-party result, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, credits Labor with nearly 70% of all minor party and independent preferences compared with 60% at the 2019 election. This has to some extent been a feature of Morgan’s polling throughout the current term, though never quite to this degree before. Given the size of the non-major party vote in the poll, the effect of such distinctions is considerable, adding around two-and-a-half points to Labor’s two-party result compared with the 2019 election and more than one point compared with the previous poll a fortnight ago.
State breakdowns credit Labor with two-party leads in all six states, a first for the sixteen Morgan polls published this term (the first of which was in July last year). Labor’s two-party results are 55.5% in New South Wales (up two points on last time for a swing of nearly 8%), 58% in Victoria (up three, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (up four-and-a-half points, a swing of around 10%), 53.5% in Western Australia (steady, a swing of around 9%), 55.5% in South Australia (down two, a swing of around 5%) and 53% from the particularly small sample size in Tasmania (down five, a 3% swing to the Liberals). The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2795.
Also, it’s been pointed out to me that the new Essential Research website includes the voting intention numbers from the last two polls, although it seems the existing policy of unloading these results once a quarter will otherwise be maintained. After excluding the 7% undecided, the latest result is Coalition 39.4%, Labor 38.3%, Greens 10.6%, One Nation 4.3% and United Australia Party 2.1%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has it at Labor 48, Coalition 45 and undecided 7; applying 2019 preference flows, I make it around 52-48 to Labor.
The display also features a lot of previously unavailable results from early last year, plus results throughout the term for the United Australia Party (whose much-touted recent surge doesn’t amount to much if this pollster is to be believed). This provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which you can peruse here. The changes recorded in the “since previous” column show the effect of the three voting intention polls since Newspoll, which included a relatively strong result for the Coalition from Resolve Strategic, a slightly above par one from Essential Research, and a weak one from Roy Morgan.
Morgan’s probably not a true reflection of Labor’s TPP though it’s not too far out from Newspoll. As far as the next election is concerned it should be borne in mind that Morrison went to the last election with comparatively few contentious issues to deal with other than climate change, and enjoyed the advantages of incumbency and of an electorate willing to give him a go for a full term.
In 2019 the Tory & Country parties won 77 seat; Labor, 68 – hardy a ringing endorsement but a win nevertheless.
Going into the next election, the Morrison Government has more problems than one can a pock a stick at and it’s counterintuitive to contemplate that it won’t lose seats in most states – more than enough for Labor to take office.
Many contributors to this site were dumbstruck after the last election, some disappearing for a time and some at least not seeing Shorten as prime ministerial. Further, a number of policies were poorly explained – dividend imputation for example. Moreover, the campaign proper was very poorly orchestrated. In my home state, for instance, there were very few ads, fliers and the like, in a state where it was absolutely crucial to make inroads.
Morrison can be expected to get even further down in the gutter in 2022. The stakes are extremely high, for if Labor prevails, which I predict it will, Morrison, for the first time in his adult life, could be brought to book, along with a number of his exceedingly shonky ministers who’ve indulged in graft, the likes of which have never been seen at the federal level, almost legitimising using the public purse for purely political purposes.
Jaeger says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:33 pm
South Australia has one of the few governments in the world which are still talking with Morrison.
Actually…
“Morrison said Steven Marshall is not at the press conference because their schedules didn’t align.”
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LOL. Marshall is holed up in mangroves somewhere, waiting for Morrison to go?
As evidence of Lars breathtaking ignorance about ICAC convictions – here are 24 pages of them..
https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/ArticleDocuments/756/ICAC%20prosecution%20outcomes_web%20table_26%20November%202021_FIN.pdf.aspx
‘Mavis says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:35 pm
Morgan’s probably not a true reflection of Labor’s TPP…’
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A more realistic measure is probably the constant bad news for Morrison on every front.
Drip, drip, drip.
Player One says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:37 pm
Oh, and just in case anyone is interested – our bridge, which is currently the only way to access our place, has just been washed away. This means our peak season bookings will probably have to be cancelled. Again.
2019: Bushfires.
2020: Covid.
2021: Floods.
That’s bad luck. Seriously, really bad luck. Nonetheless, it’s a wild stretch to blame Labor – directly or indirectly – for your misfortunes.
Things are not going to get better unless and until we rid ourselves of the reactionaries. This is a necessary condition for change. In itself, this won’t change the pandemic or the climate. And it might not happen at all. This is the reality of the circumstances in which we find ourselves.
Sometimes luck just runs out. I’m sorry to learn this may have befallen you and your partner. I have some idea how it feels. If you were not such a self-degrading, contemptuous, Labor-hating troll it might be possible to summon a more complete sense of pity for you.
‘poroti says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:04 pm
Rallying the troops our Reich Uber Tuber declares ve haf Wunderwaffe !! . The teeming Asiatic hordes have no chance.
12:58
Dutton said the government is investing $1 billion in new weapons that: “are transforming the nature of warfare as significantly as the first rifles or indeed the maxium gun.”
…’
—————————-
The maxium gun! Dutton’s is the complete article:’Yell loudly and carry a soft stick!’
It’s a mystery; I’m sure Scotty sent him an SMS. The trip would have had to have been organised hours ago.
Bloos says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:38 pm
Sometimes luck just runs out. I’m sorry to learn this may have befallen you and your partner. I have some idea how it feels. If you were not such a self-degrading, contemptuous, Labor-hating troll it might be possible to summon a more complete sense of pity for you.
_______________
Briefly are you still living in a shed?
I remember she got a lot of flack here when she was first appointed as chair, but I think the ABC has improved enormously since Buttrose took over.
It seems like the Coalition agrees.
Victoria @ #197 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 1:32 pm
Vic,
It’s not as bad as it seems if this link which Griff put up earlier today is correct, and I believe it is:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-two-sars-cov-2-variants-one-in-botswana-b-1-1529-and-one-in-the-us-b-1-628/
Asha @ #210 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 1:43 pm
🙂
Anyone who could tame Kerry Packer has my vote.
Also, someone who wasn’t mired in self pity might be industrious and message their seasonal bookings that they had laid on a boat to get them across the now bridgeless water to their desired destination. 😐
Pat Cummins and Steve Smith to lead the Australian Men’s Test cricket team!
Pat Cummins has been named the 47th captain of the Australian Men’s Test cricket team. Batter and former captain Steve Smith has been named vice-captain of the team.
Fast bowler Cummins joins an elite club with the honour of leading Australia, stepping into the role after almost two years years as vice-captain.
The 28-year-old New South Welshman is ranked the world’s number one Test bowler and has gained worldwide respect for his ability, leadership qualities and humility over a decade as a player. He marked ten years since his Test debut against South Africa this month.
Smith returns to the leadership alongside Cummins. Smith, who made his Test debut in 2010, has been an integral part of the senior playing group in with his growth as a leader and person on and off the field.
Pat Cummins said: “with Steve and I as captains, a number of very senior players in this squad and some great young talent coming through we are a strong and tightly knit group.
“This is an unexpected privilege which I am very grateful for and am very much looking forward to.”
The Vodafone Men’s Ashes starts on Wednesday, 8th December at The Gabba.
Cummins!!
Re Mavis @1:35. “Morrison can be expected to get even further down in the gutter in 2022…”
Most definitely. If the polls stay bad for the Government he’ll be like a cornered rat.
Has James McGrath been getting high on his own supply of Milo again? 😐
I expect that La Nina will wash the Ashes out.
Dutton does know that the facists were the problem leading up to WWII, and that not cutting them off and shutting them down was the mistake?
nath says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:42 pm
Bloos says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:38 pm
Sometimes luck just runs out. I’m sorry to learn this may have befallen you and your partner. I have some idea how it feels. If you were not such a self-degrading, contemptuous, Labor-hating troll it might be possible to summon a more complete sense of pity for you.
_______________
Briefly are you still living in a shed?
Nope. I’m no longer essentially homeless. My primary security concerns are ok now. I seldom have less than $100.00 in my bank account. Things are improving for me. My health. My equanimity. My prospects for contentment. Thanks for asking.
Steve777 @ #216 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 1:49 pm
Well, he is The Lying Rodent’s offspring. 🙂
Mrs Sprocket, who know the Cummins family well from her schooldays at Our Lady of Mercy College Parramatta, says ‘There won’t be any dik-pic scandals with Pat..’
Bloos says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:52 pm
Nope. I’m no longer essentially homeless. My primary security concerns are ok now. I seldom have less than $100.00 in my bank account. Things are improving for me. My health. My equanimity. My prospects for contentment. Thanks for asking.
________
That’s good. But maybe don’t stick the boot into P1 when she has a run of misfortune.
It’s an exception to the rule for a bowler to captain the Oz test side. I can’t recall one other than an all-rounder.
Mavis at 1.59pm
Only fast bowler was Ray Lindwall for one Test aeons ago.
WeWantPaul says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:51 pm
Dutton does know that the facists were the problem leading up to WWII, and that not cutting them off and shutting them down was the mistake?
The upheavals that followed the collapse of the Imperial order, the insanity of the conditions imposed on Germany at Versailles, the Depression – provoked by protectionist trade policies and a reactionary monetary system – precipitated the rise of fascism in Germany and Italy. There were proto-fascist movements in many other countries as well.
The causes of the rise of fascism lay in the failure to address the obvious economic, social and military issues of the day, in the same way as we now fail to address the meta-issues – an unsustainable global economic order, poverty, climate change, inequality and geo-strategic competition. The reactionaries failed in the 30s. They’re failing again now.
nath says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 1:58 pm
They’re citing their misfortune to make a political point – to bag Labor. Their phobia is the actual story of their blogging.
C@t
Hope this variant is not problematic.
Asha @ #195 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 1:26 pm
Yes, the ‘Voices’ and the ‘Climate 200’ campaigns (the two are not the same, but they do overlap) have been targeting safe Liberal seats. Understandable, since those are the easiest for Independents to win (according to Antony Green, who by the way agrees with you that this is more of a problem for the Liberals than for Labor).
But there is still (I believe) six months for candidates to nominate, and I am hopeful we will see a few more independents nominate in both Labor and Liberal “battleground” seats. Also, I expect that those that have already nominated may become a bit more outspoken about what should be the most significant issue of the election.
If there are no pro-action independents in your seat, I would suggest a pro-action minor party is your next best bet (there are several of these). It is certainly a better use for your vote than voting for either of the parties of inaction. Who knows – you might actually make a difference for a change!
Actually, that’s not a bad line – “Make a difference for a change. Vote Independent”
Just where did Morrison get the idea that people came to Australia for religious freedom from because that is a radical rewriting of history but one that no historian would put their name too.
I just read the Crikey article about how anti-vaxxers are targeting indiginous people in the Northern Territory.
Although beyond my capability, I don’t think it would be all that difficult to identify these people. If government policy is that we should be vaccinated, then government resources should be used to identify these people. I doubt that for most the welfare of indiginous people is their prime motivation. They should be named and shamed.
Lars at 1.16pm
Another poster has provided a link to a list of dozens of ICAC NSW investigations resulting in convictions.
ICAC NSW was instituted by Geiner of your Liberal party.
I agree, your Liberal party is dominated by a bunch of rent seekers.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:07 pm
Albo has got his anti-corruption Commission answer down pat – expect to hear it many more times between now and Election Day.
He ticks them off:
– Taylor falsifying Clover Moore’s travel expenses and giving it to Murdoch tabloids
– Leppingington triangle $30m for land valued at $3m
– Sports Rorts
– Car Porks, only Liberal members and candidates able to apply for this
– and the coup de grace, The Liar stood with Christian Porter 3 years ago to announce a Federal ICAC – and the only thing to happen since is Porter has stood aside for accepting $1m from secret donors to pay his private legal expenses
And finishes with a promise to bring in a ‘Fair Dinkum ICAC’
——————————
I’m really pleased to see that Albo is making a Federal ICAC an election issue and has found a way to talk about it persuasively. I’m under no illusion that it will compete with issues that are perceived as more bread and butter/hip pocket nerve related. From the point of view of the health of our democracy it’s very much bread and butter though.
It’s looking very questionable whether liberal democracy will survive in the US past the 2024 elections. If the US goes down an authoritarian path that may remove any inhibitions the Right in Australia might have about following suit. I don’t believe their inhibitions would be all that strong, seeing how things have fallen apart so quickly in the US and given the anticipated support from Newscorp to entrenchment of right wing rule.
Having powerful public institutions designed to protect integrity and oppose corruption was always important but is only likely to become more so.
I’d hope that, however extensive the ALP’s ICAC proposal is, that if Albo becomes PM the Senate will act to require the strongest institutions and controls that are reasonably open.
Granny Anny,
Amnesty UK accused of ‘spreading false information’ about Northern Territory Covid outbreak
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/26/amnesty-uk-accused-of-spreading-false-information-about-northern-territory-covid-outbreak
Bloos @ #205 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 1:38 pm
I don’t blame Labor for my misfortunes – I blame people like you. I blame people who vote for a party with apparently very little understanding of what they are actually voting for. But even worse are those who do know and yet do so anyway.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/minister-locks-in-east-coast-gas-to-2040/ar-AAR98PJ?ocid=msedgntp
Gas until 2040.
Player One:
My commiserations on your on-going business/personal difficulties. One question, if you will: are you able to
secure insurance for your business, home? Up here in the Gold Coast hinterland, the premiums for public risk, home & contents insurance has become cost prohibitive for quite a few. The problem is that the area has been classified as high risk for bush fires, on the back of them occurring in the Springbrook area just over a year ago.
I know that Jaeger, and to a degree they have been named and shamed, importantly including by Amnesty Australia. I have seen anything yet but I suspect an organisation like Amnesty UK would be checking the veracity of what they have done. Note they used the name of their organisation.
I am more concerned by those who try to conceal their identity. Their motivations are malevolent I believe.
steve davis @ #235 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 2:25 pm
LOL! At least Angus bothers to read the ALP party platform!
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that Fixed Rate interest rates were about to rise and that anyone thinking of fixing their Home Loan rate should move sooner than later. Well the news is that CBA have just announced the third round of fixed interest rate rises in six weeks.
https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/cba-hikes-fixed-rates-for-third-time-in-six-weeks-279258.aspx
The RBA is still saying they will keep variable rates where they are till 2024. But, there are plenty thinking, “They are Dreaming”.
But, we’ll see!
Rising interest rates with people so highly geared atm could mean the end of the Housing boom and a another problem area for Morrison in the coming months.
It isnt unheard of. Courtney Walsh. Willis. And domestically, Geoff Lawson and some others… Rackerman? Brendan Julian? Thomo!
In fact, it is probably as usual as a specialist wicket keeper being captain.
I wonder, would it increases the likelihood of selecting a fast bowling allrounder? And…. does it reduce the chances of someone like Starc who is limited to shorter spells?
You wouldnt want to be in a rush to refinance (with a top up for renos) and grab fixed rates before they go up….. while waiting for trades to get in their bl@@dy quotes that the bank demand to see.
‘Granny Anny says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 2:14 pm
I just read the Crikey article about how anti-vaxxers are targeting indiginous people in the Northern Territory.
Although beyond my capability, I don’t think it would be all that difficult to identify these people.
….’
——————————
Some maybe. But a lot of is coming from o/s, apparently.
“The best outcome for Australia is a minority government backed by pro climate action independents. Every other outcome is worse.”
People don’t generally like minority governments evidence by the Gillard government. Some independents handle there power responsibility while others (Greens/KAP) grandstand and put out all these demands disproportionate to their vote.
The best outcome is a Labor rout with a decent majority’s of Labor MPs. Who wants to see a one term minority Labor government and then go back to another big tenure of Liberal governments for 3 or 4 terms. Oh please!
Bob Willis.
If only we had Conroys firewall.
shellbell @ #245 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 2:12 pm
I included him in my list. But he wasnt exactly human when he was bowling. So maybe he is in a category all of his own.
Twitter reaction: “Are you mad?”
SK,
Yes.
However, for people just keen to lock in a rate without top up or re-finance you could contact your Bank directly and ask them to fix the rate for your loan.
As I said at the time, there are some restrictions with fixed rates. So, you need to inform yourself of the implications first.
Mavis @ #236 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 2:27 pm
Thanks. However, I’m not after sympathy – I just want people to understand that yes, we are already in the middle of a rolling climate disaster, and yes, things are only going to get worse from here. Too many still seem to think what’s happening is just a series of unfortunate but unrelated events and that we can just keep putting off taking action. Those days are now gone forever.
To answer your question – we are still fully insured, and we actually got a payout after the bushfires because we lost some buildings. The premiums went up after that, and are now quite expensive – but we still think it is worth paying them. This is commercial farm insurance for homes, buildings, equipment, plus farmstay accommodation and public liability. But it does not cover loss of income – I doubt very much we could afford that!