The latest fortnightly federal poll from Roy Morgan records Labor’s lead increasing from 54-46 in the previous poll to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 35.5% of both the Coalition (down one) and Labor (up one), 12% for the Greens (up half) and 3.5% for One Nation (steady). It has been noted that the two-party result, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, credits Labor with nearly 70% of all minor party and independent preferences compared with 60% at the 2019 election. This has to some extent been a feature of Morgan’s polling throughout the current term, though never quite to this degree before. Given the size of the non-major party vote in the poll, the effect of such distinctions is considerable, adding around two-and-a-half points to Labor’s two-party result compared with the 2019 election and more than one point compared with the previous poll a fortnight ago.
State breakdowns credit Labor with two-party leads in all six states, a first for the sixteen Morgan polls published this term (the first of which was in July last year). Labor’s two-party results are 55.5% in New South Wales (up two points on last time for a swing of nearly 8%), 58% in Victoria (up three, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (up four-and-a-half points, a swing of around 10%), 53.5% in Western Australia (steady, a swing of around 9%), 55.5% in South Australia (down two, a swing of around 5%) and 53% from the particularly small sample size in Tasmania (down five, a 3% swing to the Liberals). The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2795.
Also, it’s been pointed out to me that the new Essential Research website includes the voting intention numbers from the last two polls, although it seems the existing policy of unloading these results once a quarter will otherwise be maintained. After excluding the 7% undecided, the latest result is Coalition 39.4%, Labor 38.3%, Greens 10.6%, One Nation 4.3% and United Australia Party 2.1%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has it at Labor 48, Coalition 45 and undecided 7; applying 2019 preference flows, I make it around 52-48 to Labor.
The display also features a lot of previously unavailable results from early last year, plus results throughout the term for the United Australia Party (whose much-touted recent surge doesn’t amount to much if this pollster is to be believed). This provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which you can peruse here. The changes recorded in the “since previous” column show the effect of the three voting intention polls since Newspoll, which included a relatively strong result for the Coalition from Resolve Strategic, a slightly above par one from Essential Research, and a weak one from Roy Morgan.
Yep, Shellbell.
But everyone up here knows Logan CC is corrupt, right? Right??
P1
“What was it the Democrats used to say … oh yes … “Keep the bastards honest!” Vote Independent.”
Which Independent? Any Independent? And why exactly am I voting Independent in the first place? So the Independents can hold the major parties to account in the parliament? But in order for Independents to hold the balance of power, that means the major parties must hold all the other seats. So somebody needs to vote for the major parties, right? But I’ve been told to vote Independent. Gosh, I’m so confused!
This “Vote Independent” thing isn’t as easy as it looks. There’s a little voice in my head telling it’s all bullshit, and just a simplistic meme being pushed by an inveterate attention-seeker. But no… that can’t be so!
Albo has got his anti-corruption Commission answer down pat – expect to hear it many more times between now and Election Day.
He ticks them off:
– Taylor falsifying Clover Moore’s travel expenses and giving it to Murdoch tabloids
– Leppingington triangle $30m for land valued at $3m
– Sports Rorts
– Car Porks, only Liberal members and candidates able to apply for this
– and the coup de grace, The Liar stood with Christian Porter 3 years ago to announce a Federal ICAC – and the only thing to happen since is Porter has stood aside for accepting $1m from secret donors to pay his private legal expenses
And finishes with a promise to bring in a ‘Fair Dinkum ICAC’
I can see why Lib von Tryhard is embarrassed, and keen to deflect.
Dandy Murray @ #133 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 10:59 am
How much Dandy?
The Rivian has a nice pull out kitchen for just $5k extra. And I cant wait for the pop up solar flower to be included.
I dont want to be looked at. A cheap Chinese slap up EV ute will do the trick. But that Hummer….
The Independent Anarchy of Logan strikes again.
Boerwar @ #149 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 9:05 am
So it’s rational to always jump to one conclusion and discount information that you are obviously ignorant of. 😆
”
Ashasays:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 11:13 am
GG:
I know they got O’Farrell and Berekjilian. Who was the third
”
Nick Greiner
”
Ashasays:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 11:20 am
Simon / Poroti / Granny Anny:
Cheers.
I actually didn’t realise ICAC existed back then. I had always assumed the O’Farrell government brought it in.
”
Greiner instituted/set up ICAC in 1988.
Boerwar @ #144 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 11:55 am
A very fair question, since you seem to spend your entire existence here on PB deflecting away from Australia’s disgraceful past and present behavior … to China.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:10 pm
Boerwar @ #149 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 9:05 am
Well, now that it has turned out that BiTJ can’t blame Japan for the Solomon’s logs going to China he is now blaming the Solomons for the Solomons logs going to China.
The Solomons are corrupt, you see.
Classic comradely unicorns on display.
Rational bludgers don’t buy that crap.
So it’s rational to always jump to one conclusion and discount information that you are obviously ignorant of.
——————
Yet another deflection from BiTJ.
Deflection from what?
Japan? Yeah, nah.
China is gutting the Solomon’s forests while at the same time planting millions of hectares of forests in China.
Kakuru @ #152 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 12:07 pm
You know, I always assumed that people who post here must have some brain cells still sparking.
Still, an honest person should be able to admit when they make a mistake, so I will admit that the evidence seems to show I was wrong 🙁
Did I read earlier that Morrison went to Adelaide and blamed the previous Labor State Government for a reduction in manufacturing? Would that have been because the Federal LNP Government told the car manufacturers to p%$ss off?
For a supposedly staunch christian, wouldn’t you think he would know the 8th commandment off by heart?
poroti @ #128 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 11:24 am
No they’re a team of puppets with Morrison pulling the strings.
Boerwar at 11:55 am
So how much ‘concern’ is because CHINA !! rather than the pillage of the forests ? You know , what we and our maaaaates have been doing there for decades .
Granny Anny @ #163 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 12:23 pm
Evangelicals don’t follow the 10 Commandments. They only have one.
Make more money for yourself and the Church.
C@t
“Evangelicals don’t follow the 10 Commandments. They only have one.
Make more money for yourself and the Church.”
Or in other words: God helps those who help themselves. To anything they can get their hands on.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:07 pm
Albo has got his anti-corruption Commission answer down pat – expect to hear it many more times between now and Election Day.
He ticks them off:
– Taylor falsifying Clover Moore’s travel expenses and giving it to Murdoch tabloids
– Leppingington triangle $30m for land valued at $3m
– Sports Rorts
– Car Porks, only Liberal members and candidates able to apply for this
– and the coup de grace, The Liar stood with Christian Porter 3 years ago to announce a Federal ICAC – and the only thing to happen since is Porter has stood aside for accepting $1m from secret donors to pay his private legal expenses
And finishes with a promise to bring in a ‘Fair Dinkum ICAC’
__________________________________
Very nice. It ties together all the other supposed Canberra bubble issues that are bubbling away.
Labor is sticking with its slogan ‘on your side’. Makes a lot of sense when voters increasingly are asking themselves whose side the Coalition is on?
Dandy Murray,
As it seems you are around, I put up this picture earlier this morning with the hope that you might be able to explain what it is referring to. If you can enlighten us that would be great:
A photobioreactor at Algalif’s facilities in Reykjanesbaer, Iceland, produces sustainable astaxanthin using clean geothermal energy. Iceland has shifted from fossil fuels to 100% of electricity and heat from renewable sources.
I think this is in your wheelhouse. 🙂
Oh, and just in case anyone is interested – our bridge, which is currently the only way to access our place, has just been washed away. This means our peak season bookings will probably have to be cancelled. Again.
2019: Bushfires.
2020: Covid.
2021: Floods.
Now, a clever person might spot out that these are not isolated events. They are all driven by climate change. You know, that issue that the Labor party is too scared to even have a policy on.
And some people here seem to wonder why I suggest they might want to vote for Independents who will force the major parties to act, and hold them to account if they do not.
Vote Independent. It is the one thing you can do that you know will work. How do you know? Because it clearly frightens the bejeezus out of both the parties and their supporters here.
Independent assessment of proposed federal Commissions Against Corruption from Centre for Public Integrity
https://publicintegrity.org.au/projects/national-integrity-commission/
https://publicintegrity.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Weakest-watchdog-FINAL-25.10.21-.pdf (pdf)
Labor’s proposal not quite as good as Haines, which is just less than the Greens proposal that has already passed the senate.
Only the Greens bill is equivalent to the most highly rated NSW ICAC and Qld CCC
There must be someone at ICAC going through a crisis of conscience right about now.
Do they drop Gladys in the poo, as it seems she so richly deserves for going soft on her gentleman friend’s rampant corruption? Or do they go easy on her, in order to prove they are not a privacy-invading, revenge-seeking, “disgraceful” and indeed “shameful” organization?
If they let her off with a mild admonishment, millions will believe they were got at by political pressure. Other millions will see the investigation as having been a waste of time, as claimed from the start.
If they go in hard, millions will believe that ICAC has done so because it is a vengeful organization that unduly punishes those (or their friends) who criticise it. Other millions will believe it is sending a timely and appropriate signal that so-called “soft corruption” is not an option, unlucky in love or not.
I’d go for the latter.
If you want to be Premier of NSW, with all the grave responsibilities, privileges and duties that high office involves, pick better boyfriends. Be popular BECAUSE you’re honest, not despite it.
If even they go off the reservation, dropping your good name to their cronies, bragging to you until you have to tell them to stop, involving you even indirectly in their crooked schemes, then get rid of them (after first reporting them).
I might vote independent but I want Labor to win, and win well. A WA-style result would be fantastic.
But my lower house vote is locked up in an electorate un-winnable for Labor except maybe in a WA 2020 scenario. If I were to vote independent, it would be to help eject a Liberal who, whatever his personal convictions, has the same voting record as Barnaby Joyce or Peter Dutton. Replacing him with a centrist independent would help Labor by weakening the Coalition.
I don’t buy into the whole “same, same”, “each side is as bad as the other” thing. Vote for the least worst if that’s how you see things. If my seat was winnable for Labor, that’s how I’d vote.
The Liberal candidate supports a corrupt, incompetent, reactionary right wing Government which is determined to take no action on climate change and which wants to dismantle what’s left of the post-war settlement. A Labor Government will not be perfect but it would be a vast improvement.
So vote for an independent if you are in a safe Liberal seat, but vote for who you want otherwise – Labor, Green, whatever. And vote for who you want in the Senate. And ultimately, you’re going to have to choose which of the “duopoly” you want to preference over the other.
Bushfire Bill,
Simples. Wait until after the federal election. Be dilatory. They’ve had their budget cut so they can hardly move quickly. 🙂
Although I find it hard to see how anyone is believing the ‘Poor Hardly Done By Gladys’ line that is being spun.
‘poroti says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:31 pm
Boerwar at 11:55 am
So how much ‘concern’ is because CHINA !! rather than the pillage of the forests ? You know , what we and our maaaaates have been doing there for decades .’
—————————————
I posted a comprhensive posts of the issues facing the Solomons and asking an open question about what the right policy response might be for Australia.
One of the major concerns for the Solomons is that its population is bigger than the original subsistence forest-products, farming and fisheries could support.
A second major concern is the productive capacity of all three systems is being degraded by the forestry. (I omitted that the increased rate of runoff is having disastrous impacts on the Solomon’s build environment during major flooding events, but hey. We can’t cover everything.
China is gutting the Solomons forestry. (There are other minor players India, Taiwan both import logs from the Solomons, for example).
My personal concern?
I spent a significant amount of my professional life devoted to forestry conservation.
China is the old growth forest smasher du jour – and not just in the Solomons.
That was naturally the signal for BiTJ to wonder aloud whether it was Japan that was gutting the Solomons. Classic deflection, no?
Why would BiTj, friend of the comrades, raise Japan when it is China that is hoovering up the Solomon’s logs?
If you want to query motivation: go to BiTj and his routine deflections on behalf of the bastardy of the comrades.
Steve777
“So vote for an independent if you are in a safe Liberal seat, but vote for who you want otherwise – Labor, Green, whatever.”
Yep. The knee-jerk “Vote Independent” is not a political strategy in itself, just a vacuous meme.
Bushfire,
Believe me, Ruth McColl won’t be thinking that at all. She’ll make her findings based on the evidence.
So, the ALP FICAC proposal has everything the Helen Haines/Larissa Waters proposal has, except for a couple of unknowns, which are more likely than not to be adopted.
So, vote for the party of government. 🙂
“What load of rubbish.
Both represent a real threat to the LNP.
Labor in the marginal seats, whilst the independents threaten safe seats that Labor has little chance of gaining.
All this adds up to the government having to defend on multiple fronts and issues.”
I know some Greens/anti major parties minded people are getting carried away with their enthusiasm for these independents.
I don’t think it should change Labors strategy of going hard even in safe Liberal seats. Labor needs to win seats but it also needs to win votes for the senate.
It happened in the Queensland state election the amount of people that talked up independent Claire Richardson’s chances in the seat of Oodgeroo. She failed to make the final two party preferred vote and the contest turned to be a bit of a fizzer.
Labor to strategicaly take a backseat to independents just in the hopes of a remote chance that a independent can produce a zali steggalls result is flawed strategy. They can give their preferences to them ofcourse but thats it.
Burgey
Agree -question may be when.
ICAC written submissions are not due to close to Xmas and Ms Berjiklian’s not til mid Feb 2022.
Steve777 @ #172 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 12:42 pm
A logical comment.
The only thing I’d add is – do some homework and VOTE BELOW THE LINE in the senate ..!
Kakuru says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:45 pm
Steve777
“So vote for an independent if you are in a safe Liberal seat, but vote for who you want otherwise – Labor, Green, whatever.”
Yep. The knee-jerk “Vote Independent” is not a political strategy in itself, just a vacuous meme.
______________
Why is it causing you such obvious distress to listen to an opinion that you don’t share?
C@t
“I think this is in your wheelhouse. ”
Not really, but I have a friend in synthetic biology that would know all about it.
My educated guess it that they are growing some funky algae.
Rallying the troops our Reich Uber Tuber declares ve haf Wunderwaffe !! . The teeming Asiatic hordes have no chance.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/nov/26/australia-news-live-update-flood-warnings-as-more-heavy-rain-hits-nsw-australian-police-and-defence-personnel-fly-to-solomon-islands-religious-freedom-gay-students-teachers-scott-morrison-covid-south-africa-variant
P1:
Why would Labor be frightened when all the climate independents so far have been running in safe Liberal seats.
This is a good thing for Labor.
Kakuru @ #175 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 12:45 pm
Worried, much?
I, for one, am just terrified at the thought of the Coalition losing blue-ribbon seats to independents.
So who has actually gone to jail because of ICAC/IBAC?
The only one i can think of is Eddie.
For probably 100m a year I reckon a properly resourced police squad could have done the same for about a 10th of the cost.
Lots of people feasting on the anti corruption gravy train. I guess it’s the way of public sector rent seekers.
The last people you want in charge of looking at political corruption is the cops. The NSW and federal Police are as heavily politicised as any forces in the western world. Both need a purge.
Lars, the borders are open now. Might do you good to get out of NSW for a bit. Did you know that there are actually seven other states and territories in this country?
It’s a torture chamber for microalgae. “When the algae is stressed by lack of nutrients, increased salinity, or excessive sunshine, it creates astaxanthin.” Astaxanthin is an antioxidant and food dye.
Asha @ #184 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 1:10 pm
Seriously? Who cares about Labor other than people so blinded by party ideology that they apparently can’t be bothered even reading their own party platform, or understanding what it would actually mean if it were enacted into policy?
The best outcome for Australia is a minority government backed by pro climate action independents. Every other outcome is worse.
P1 (definitely not a member of the Landlord Class) laments:
Lucky you’re voting for an independent.
If they win they’ll get it fixed for you overnight, with all the influence they’re likely to have with whoever’s in government. Or maybe they’ll solve Climate Change first and then you won’t need a bridge, because there won’t be any more floods.
If, however, a Liberal member is elected and there is a Liberal government, you can expect a new bridge in about as much time as it’s taken ScoMo to front with his much bragged-about Bushfire Grants. Give it, oh, about 3 years, and a dozen announcements, and I’m sure the Libs will deliver in time for the 2025 election, or maybe the election after that.
Alternatively the Josh might give you tax cuts, which will come in handy… once you get some customers through the doors, after the bridge is fixed and the Bushfire money is paid out, and Hell freezes over.
I don’t know what you’re whingeing about.
Kakuru
“Evangelicals don’t follow the 10 Commandments. They only have one.
Make more money for yourself and the Church.”
Or in other words: God helps those who help themselves. To anything they can get their hands on.
Especially applies to Morrison and crew.
Bushfire Bill @ #192 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 1:21 pm
A truer thing you have never posted.
Player One:
Mate, that isn’t my point at all, which I’m sure you realize, given that you are obviously the smartest man in the world.
My point is that – as far as I know – there aren’t any credible independents running in either safe Labor seats or battleground seats, and as such the idea that ALP strategists would be worried about the “Voices of…” movement, rather than rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of the Coalition fighting a war on multiple fronts, is pretty silly.
Sure, that may change come election day, but so far “Voices” has been all about knocking off Coalition incumbents.
No doubt Greg Hunt and scotty are on the ball.
#auspol South Africa investigating new COVID-19 variant, B.1.1.529, with a “very unusual constellation” of mutations. It’s requesting an urgent meeting of the WHO working group on virus evolution
The best outcome is a thumping Labor majority and a routed coalition
The outcome is made harder but dumb-dumb unlearning deadshits who in 2021 are still trying to conflate Labor and the Coalition on climate. The only effect of this is to increase the chance of Liberal government.
The result is we have had 8 years of inaction on Climate Change and, worse, have sent blockers to major global forums to stymie global action
Hopefully these independents smash up these so called progressive liberals in inner city seats. Those people are more culpable than the Greens
Actually…
“Morrison said Steven Marshall is not at the press conference because their schedules didn’t align.”
Salt of the earth old James McGrath. FFS where do they find these people?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/nov/26/grotesque-leftwing-back-scratching-failed-senate-inquiry-into-abc-leaves-coalition-enraged