The latest fortnightly federal poll from Roy Morgan records Labor’s lead increasing from 54-46 in the previous poll to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 35.5% of both the Coalition (down one) and Labor (up one), 12% for the Greens (up half) and 3.5% for One Nation (steady). It has been noted that the two-party result, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, credits Labor with nearly 70% of all minor party and independent preferences compared with 60% at the 2019 election. This has to some extent been a feature of Morgan’s polling throughout the current term, though never quite to this degree before. Given the size of the non-major party vote in the poll, the effect of such distinctions is considerable, adding around two-and-a-half points to Labor’s two-party result compared with the 2019 election and more than one point compared with the previous poll a fortnight ago.
State breakdowns credit Labor with two-party leads in all six states, a first for the sixteen Morgan polls published this term (the first of which was in July last year). Labor’s two-party results are 55.5% in New South Wales (up two points on last time for a swing of nearly 8%), 58% in Victoria (up three, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (up four-and-a-half points, a swing of around 10%), 53.5% in Western Australia (steady, a swing of around 9%), 55.5% in South Australia (down two, a swing of around 5%) and 53% from the particularly small sample size in Tasmania (down five, a 3% swing to the Liberals). The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2795.
Also, it’s been pointed out to me that the new Essential Research website includes the voting intention numbers from the last two polls, although it seems the existing policy of unloading these results once a quarter will otherwise be maintained. After excluding the 7% undecided, the latest result is Coalition 39.4%, Labor 38.3%, Greens 10.6%, One Nation 4.3% and United Australia Party 2.1%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has it at Labor 48, Coalition 45 and undecided 7; applying 2019 preference flows, I make it around 52-48 to Labor.
The display also features a lot of previously unavailable results from early last year, plus results throughout the term for the United Australia Party (whose much-touted recent surge doesn’t amount to much if this pollster is to be believed). This provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which you can peruse here. The changes recorded in the “since previous” column show the effect of the three voting intention polls since Newspoll, which included a relatively strong result for the Coalition from Resolve Strategic, a slightly above par one from Essential Research, and a weak one from Roy Morgan.
M
There have been predictions that leaving 90% of the world unvaccinated would create the perfect petrie dish for the evolution of new and more dangerous variants.
Labor lost (and in 2010, failed to win) elections in 2013, 16 and 19 by fighting with green-tinted climate change policies. They have a chance of winning next year by fighting on other ground, while, for a change, it is the LNP that are being torn to pieces by the politics of climate change. This issue has cost 3 PMs their leadership – Rudd, Gillard and Turnbull. It was critical to the final ouster of Abbott from the Parliament. It’s going to be a contributing factor in the defeat of Morrison, if, in fact, he goes on to fight and lose the coming election.
It’s proven to be a very tough issue. There’s been nothing tougher in the last 25 years. It’s not going to get any easier for some time to come. But it will get easier as the adoption of renewables accelerates, diversifies and their diffusion increases. This will create a completely new sets of economic relations and opportunities and these will determine future political dynamics and expressions. So the way through is to promote new energy sources, new generation and distribution and new applications. The emphasis has to be on the new.
Howard understood this, which is why he set out to prevent any innovation at all in energy. So many of the problems we have result from his sabotage. The LNP are anything but the party of the new. They are the citadel of reactionary anger, rejection and fear. They need to be driven from power and kept away as long as possible.
Boerwar @ #96 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 7:48 am
No, it was an observation of the situation when I was there and the actions you attribute to China were the actions of the largely Japanese investment going on at that time.
The only obvious Chinese presence were the residents of Honiara’s China Town, who had been there for generations.
The virus has landed in SA? As for covid….
It has only been 3 days and there are 3 cases and a growing list of exposure sites (some in low vax rate areas). Back to this merry dance again.
Masks and QR codes are now the front line.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #93 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 10:40 am
I suppose #MehToo can be considered a campaign tactic. You apparently believe that Labor is hiding their real intentions and will unveil their real policies only when they win government (or perhaps we should say if they win government). You may be right. But I look at their record, and also that of the Labor state governments, and I don’t share your blind trust. Not without Independents to provide them some backbone.
What was it the Democrats used to say … oh yes … “Keep the bastards honest!” Vote Independent.
The most shocking thing about that Leak cartoon is the revelation that David “The Invisible Man” Crisafulli has apparently been in the news lately.
On that note, we are seriously due for some Queensland state polling. It’s been over a year now.
https://twitter.com/zdaniel/status/1463731059552522243
Pretty impressive speech from Zoe Daniel. Surely a better rep than Tim Wilson.
The ‘Voices for..’ Independents will hurt the major party vote share – and that is what’s needed at this time.
Boerwar says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 10:54 am
M
There have been predictions that leaving 90% of the world unvaccinated would create the perfect petrie dish for the evolution of new and more dangerous variants.
And in the same vein, the circulation of SARS-2 among vaccinated populations will lead to adaptations that allow evasion of vaccines. We’re stuck with COVID. It will continue to mutate and adapt to its environment. We have to develop and deploy effective therapies. We are not going to be able to permanently arrest social spread, but we can prevent serious illness. We have to focus on this.
In Australia, if the LNP have anything to do with it, this will not happen. They do not believe in science. They believe in nothing but their own rights to seize and hold power.
Scott @ #65 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 10:07 am
I hope it’s going to be retrospective ..????
”
Ashasays:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 10:12 am
Lars:
Yeah, I don’t know about that one. Whenever I’ve been out door knocking as of late, nearly everyone we’ve spoken too has mentioned that they want a federal ICAC. It’s a popular policy, for reasons that should be blindingly obvious.
”
Grift and corruption have been unfortunately normalised by Federal LNP and NSW State governments. When Obeid and MacDonald were found corrupt everybody was disgusted by their conduct and rightly so.
But as Mavis pointed a lot of people in NSW think Gladys walks on water.
I remember clearly Australians, British and Americans ridiculing the Third World countries for their grift and corruption. What a fall for these these countries. It appears these countries sophisticated ways of doing things is keeping those things under cover.
Lars.
ICAC only has the ears of three skewered Premiers in their trophy room.
GG:
I know they got O’Farrell and Berekjilian. Who was the third?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 10:56 am
Boerwar @ #96 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 7:48 am
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 10:31 am
….
When I was there in the 90s, Japan was a major investor, especially in logging and fishing.
…’
——————————————
Deflection. As usual?
The overwhelming majority of the Solomons forestry exports go to China.
No, it was an observation of the situation when I was there and the actions you attribute to China were the actions of the largely Japanese investment going on at that time.
The only obvious Chinese presence were the residents of Honiara’s China Town, who had been there for generations.
———————–
Classic BiTJ: follow up deflection from, ‘Look over there, Japan!’
Deflection from what?
The Solomons had the great misfortune to be the cockpit for Japanese and US imperial rivalry in WW2.
They are currently the cockpit for Imperial US and Imperial Chinese rivalry.
Further, what useful policies could Australia pursue in the Solomons?
Asha says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 11:13 am
GG:
I know they got O’Farrell and Berekjilian. Who was the third?
______
Obeid?
The reactionary plurality is falling to pieces as we watch. Die-hard Labor-phobes, like P1, are losing their commitment to the dark blue (Navy blue?) shirts and are stumping for the pale blues. But the pale blues will only realise their objectives if Labor also succeed. So one way or another, they have to stir themselves into action against the reactionaries. Unable to stomach Labor – whom they openly detest – they plan instead on blackmail, on sabotage and on distraction.
Player One @ #105 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 7:59 am
They are hiding nothing, they are just choosing to focus on particular issues as any campaign does.
In the seats the independents are targeting, climate change will be an important issue, in the marginal seats that Labor will be going after other issues rank as more significant.
To defend against the independents, the Government needs to defend its environmental credentials, whilst also defending against Labor attacks on issues like cost of living, employment, and corruption and integrity, to name a few.
This splits the Governments messaging and helps to maintain focus on a wide range of issues, something the Government would wish to avoid.
Confessons
Bullshitman has an invisible/non existent watch dog but despite its non existence it is still dropping crap he has to clean up.
Asha @ #113 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 10:43 am
Greiner.
Boer
“What should any Australian government do?”
The only long term economic response ,(ignoring all other factors for the moment) would be to incorporate the Solomon Island’s labour market within the broader Australian labour market.
Barney mentioned logging and fishing investment which as shown itself to exasperate the standard of living and income inequalities in a very short time.
Any Australian government will have a problem with a Solomon Islands dilemma.
My point is that the Morrison government is infinitely ill-equipped to deal with most things, economic, social, environmental or fiscal.
The Solomon Island dilemma and the Morrison government intervention at any level is Every Single.Thing.
The Morrison government is a massive risk of escalating any number of domestic and international problems by intervening in the current dilemma.
I suggest UN intervention and policing in SI and strongly suggest that the “kiss my ring” Morrison government is unfit to help SI.
Simon Katich says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 10:58 am
“The virus has landed in SA? As for covid….
It has only been 3 days and there are 3 cases and a growing list of exposure sites (some in low vax rate areas). Back to this merry dance again.
Masks and QR codes are now the front line.”
I have yet to understand the compelling reason to open the borders to Vic and NSW.
Asha
Poor ol’ Nick
Asha, the third Premier was Greiner, all three were liberals.
Simon / Poroti / Granny Anny:
Cheers.
I actually didn’t realise ICAC existed back then. I had always assumed the O’Farrell government brought it in.
Goll says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 11:18 am
Boer
“What should any Australian government do?”
…
My point is that the Morrison government is infinitely ill-equipped to deal with most things, economic, social, environmental or fiscal.
…’
————————————————
Agree:
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 10:24 am
ICAC / IBac – lawyers picnics with not much to show for their efforts.
We have elections for people to pass judgements – don’t need 10k a day silk to do it for us.
”
Does Larse support current alleged corrupt practices followed by Federal and NSW State governments ?
3 Premiers and a Shadow Premier.
😆 The headline in the Grauniad. It certainly would be news if they weren’t.
Boerwar @ #114 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 8:14 am
What’s your evidence to support your claims?
The article linked had nothing to support your assertions.
I’m sorry I provided contrary evidence and didn’t blindly jump on your bus of hyperbole.
Are you suggesting that the Japanese loggers have just meekly jumped out of the way of China?
You did suggest that China was having problems gaining access to the Solomons. Why is this the case?
Maybe Japan didn’t meekly jump out of China’s way and asserted its own influence within the country.
a). Paine should have announced his retirement – not that he was only stepping away from the captaincy This is another blight on CA and the State administrations
b) Howard won elections off unstable global factors – so 7/11 and the manifestations to “Children overboard” etc etc Whilst Howard played his racist card to advantage federally, at State level it played out with “anti Howard” sentiment delivering State governments Then came 2007 – that result a long time in the making
Howard was returned for the first time by “sandbagging” seats – the 2PP in favour of the ALP
And that “sandbagging” continues exposed now by NSW and the Premier forced to resign
This “sandbagging” is what the ALP needs to counteract
It runs to appointments to the PS, to NGO’s and to the Courts (therefore a narrative – supported by a compliant media)
This is the legacy of Howard
The polling now in the public domain will (should) be a catalyst in itself – causing many to question across the raft of issues driving that polling therefore consolidation of the numbers at worst
We have seen landslides in Victoria, in the NT, in the ACT (in regard the Liberal vote) and in WA
And the Queensland government comfortably returned
The indicators are there
Now to consolidate and improve the numbers so momentum (noting the Federal government is contributing to that momentum)
poroti says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 11:24 am
The headline in the Grauniad. It certainly would be news if they weren’t.
Australia news live update: Morrison says Liberal party not ‘a team of drones’; ..
….’
——————————
Morrison is quite right.
They are not a team of drones.
They are a rabble of drones.
Simon Katich @ #119 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 11:17 am
The NSW ICAC has a big task trying to repair the long-standing culture of political corruption. It’s so ingrained that the likes of Morrison and Gladys and Obeid etc continue to be shocked and affronted that their behaviour is being scrutinized at all.
“Enter the Rivian…
Exe. $100k in Aus?
There are two Chinese EV utes due in Australia soon. The LDV Maxus looks nearest. And not long after hopefully the BYD.”
Keep your eye on Vinfast, SK
Q: I have yet to understand the compelling reason to open the borders to Vic and NSW.
Yes, it seems a mystery to all my fellow S.Australians.
Today 2 big tennis tournaments were announced for Adelaide from January 02 (Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne are getting all the summer of tennis). That I could see as a reason, so Dec 18 would have allowed for Xmas visits and 2-week quarantine if necessary and made more sense.
What’s your evidence to support your claims?
The article linked had nothing to support your assertions.
I’m sorry I provided contrary evidence and didn’t blindly jump on your bus of hyperbole.
Are you suggesting that the Japanese loggers have just meekly jumped out of the way of China?
You did suggest that China was having problems gaining access to the Solomons. Why is this the case?
Maybe Japan didn’t meekly jump out of China’s way and asserted its own influence within the country.
————————–
Comrade BiTJ is up to the usual: deflect in order to reset the agenda to anything other than the comrades behaviour in the Solomons. BiTJ then conjures up various tests and demands. More deflections.
No dice, BiTJ. You routinely swing in behind the comrades with this sort of smoke and mirrors. I must admit deflecting to Japan showed a bit more creativity than your usual droning on about how the comrades and China are the victims.
For other Bludgers, here is what got BiTJ exercised:
China is gutting the Solomons’ forests at the same time as it is planting millions of hectares of forests in China. Estimated timeline for the forests to be gone at current rates of logging is about 15 years. The forestry is destroying a food source, causing enhanced flooding, disrupting agriculture, and depressing fishing.
I will leave it to others to make a judgement about whether the comrades are doing all that in the best interests of the people of the Solomons.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 11:06 am
I hope it’s going to be retrospective ..????
—————————————–
Apparently yes it will be
https://www.alp.org.au/policies/national-anti-corruption-commission
have the power to investigate allegations of serious and systemic corruption that occurred before or after its establishment;
Simon Katich @ #33 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 7:42 am
A steal when compared to the price of the Land/Range Rovers that everyone seems to be driving around in.
Wee Ghunt going the ‘relaxed and comfortable’ over the new ‘improved’ virus. Not so the UK and elsewhere.
.
Lars,
“The good folk of Deakin sit at their breakfast tables quietly outraged at the absence of a federal icac.
Sorry – it’s a Canberra bubble issue.”
In Qld, for many the CJC-QCC-CMC and now CCC is a source of pride, and people remember the Fitzgerald Inquiry.
Asha wrote:
Even more ironic was that the Greiner government introduced ICAC, to get at Labor and, in one of the biggest own goals in history, Greiner himself was it’s first scalp.
Then O’Farrell. Then Berejiklian.
No wonder the Tories hate ICAC.
DM
This is pretty wild
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-21/qld-pccc-public-hearing-logan-city-councilors/100558170
All business as usual in the Solomon Islands. Australia scores a couple of dishonorable mentions in this article from……………………..1986
https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/logging-disrupts-solomon-islanders-customary-way-life
Marshall promised Morrison he would open at 80%. And a few of his backers with an interest in incoming tourism are holding him to it.
And there is normally a lot of money that comes in to town in the festival months of Jan-March.
What is unbelievable is the strange rules around coming in regarding testing – only once and can be 72h before leaving. And that, I think, you can travel to Melbourne or Sydney for 72h and not have to be tested at all when you return. A nervous few weeks and months ahead. Any SA’ies thinking of travelling to Tasmania should do so sooner rather than later.
poroti says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 11:50 am
All business as usual in the Solomon Islands. Australia scores a couple of dishonorable mentions in this article from……………………..1986
…’
————————–
So, know we are moving right along from deflecting to Japan to deflecting to Australia?
The here and the now is that China is gutting the Solomon’s forests. While planting a massive forest estate in China itself.
I’ll leave it to rational Bludgers to decide whether the really important thing right now is to deflect to Japan and Australia – from China.
Boerwar @ #135 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 8:32 am
Where in the article does it suggest that China is doing the logging?
China banned logging of these timbers in China quite a while ago and hypocritically proceeded to maintain supply by acquiring them from their neighbours.
Certainly China could make a great contribution to stopping deforestation by banning the importation of these timbers.
But the issue around logging in the Solomon Islands has always been about corruption within the Solomon Islands. It’s how the loggers got their foot in the door and have been able to continue and expand their operations.
Dealing with the corruption is the major challenge in finding a solution.
BiTJ
Still deflecting on behalf of the comrades?
Where do most of the logs go to? Japan? The United States? Australia?
It is a bit like you saying, ‘Where does it say that China illegally harvests most of the world’s pangolins?’
When most of them go to China to get eaten.
It is a bit like, ‘Who mines Australian coal?’
When most of it is burnt in China.
poroti @ #142 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 8:50 am
I remember just before I was there, Australia had donated two patrol boats to the Solomon Islands.
Both were tied up at the main pier unused as the Solomons didn’t have the money or ability to maintain them in a seaworthy condition.
Getting out of that weirdo CA bubble is the best thing for Tim Paine’s rehabilitation.
Well, now that it has turned out that BiTJ can’t blame Japan for the Solomon’s logs going to China he is now blaming the Solomons for the Solomons logs going to China.
The Solomons are corrupt, you see.
Classic comradely unicorns on display.
Rational bludgers don’t buy that crap.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:04 pm
Getting out of that weirdo CA bubble is the best thing for Tim Paine’s rehabilitation.
——————————————–
Yeah? Losing your job is always the best way to start your rehabilitation when your boss has behaved badly.