The latest fortnightly federal poll from Roy Morgan records Labor’s lead increasing from 54-46 in the previous poll to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 35.5% of both the Coalition (down one) and Labor (up one), 12% for the Greens (up half) and 3.5% for One Nation (steady). It has been noted that the two-party result, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, credits Labor with nearly 70% of all minor party and independent preferences compared with 60% at the 2019 election. This has to some extent been a feature of Morgan’s polling throughout the current term, though never quite to this degree before. Given the size of the non-major party vote in the poll, the effect of such distinctions is considerable, adding around two-and-a-half points to Labor’s two-party result compared with the 2019 election and more than one point compared with the previous poll a fortnight ago.
State breakdowns credit Labor with two-party leads in all six states, a first for the sixteen Morgan polls published this term (the first of which was in July last year). Labor’s two-party results are 55.5% in New South Wales (up two points on last time for a swing of nearly 8%), 58% in Victoria (up three, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (up four-and-a-half points, a swing of around 10%), 53.5% in Western Australia (steady, a swing of around 9%), 55.5% in South Australia (down two, a swing of around 5%) and 53% from the particularly small sample size in Tasmania (down five, a 3% swing to the Liberals). The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2795.
Also, it’s been pointed out to me that the new Essential Research website includes the voting intention numbers from the last two polls, although it seems the existing policy of unloading these results once a quarter will otherwise be maintained. After excluding the 7% undecided, the latest result is Coalition 39.4%, Labor 38.3%, Greens 10.6%, One Nation 4.3% and United Australia Party 2.1%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has it at Labor 48, Coalition 45 and undecided 7; applying 2019 preference flows, I make it around 52-48 to Labor.
The display also features a lot of previously unavailable results from early last year, plus results throughout the term for the United Australia Party (whose much-touted recent surge doesn’t amount to much if this pollster is to be believed). This provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which you can peruse here. The changes recorded in the “since previous” column show the effect of the three voting intention polls since Newspoll, which included a relatively strong result for the Coalition from Resolve Strategic, a slightly above par one from Essential Research, and a weak one from Roy Morgan.
Frydenberg weighs into the “Gladys for Canberra” push.
When signing formal correspondence in the Navy, you’d write, ‘Sir, I have the honour to be your obedient servant,
[insert name & rank]’. Traditions die hard in the forces.
Berejiklian?
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.
Rivian test drive
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tpBMld6U9B0
UK Cartoons:
Boer,
Solomon Islands ?
Every.Single.Thing
I may’ve missed it but I’m yet to see the A-G of NSW defend the ICAC following Morrison’s manic & cowardly tirade of it? It’s the job of the Attorney to defend the judiciary & quasi judicial bodies, as, apart from retired judges, they can’t defend themselves. Yet another convention trashed by this mob of ne’er-do-wells.
Boerwar @ #53 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 9:03 am
Amazing how they back themselves into corners. If their integrity commission isnt going to pull up ministers for failing to withdraw from decisions where there is a conflict of interest (like Berejiklian and Chapman) and isnt going to pull the reigns on extravagant porkbarelling, then everyone knows they arent serious about a integrity.
Parts of Sydney’s north and west could face flooding with the latest big rain event predicted to cause the city’s main dam to spill.
WaterNSW is forecasting Warragamba dam will reach full capacity and begin overflowing into the Hawkesbury-Nepean River downstream from Friday evening.
At the upper end of predictions, the dam’s catchment area will receive as much as 100mm of rain from the current event. If the forecasts are correct, Warragamba’s spill could reach a peak rate of as much as 100 gigalitres a day by Saturday morning, WaterNSW’s modelling shows.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/26/sydneys-warragamba-dam-expected-to-spill-as-parts-of-citys-west-preparing-for-flooding
The good folk of Deakin sit at their breakfast tables quietly outraged at the absence of a federal icac.
Sorry – it’s a Canberra bubble issue.
”
Mavissays:
Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 11:18 pm
[‘Vaccine rollout:
NSW
92.2% fully vaccinated; 94.5% first dose
National
86% fully vaccinated; 92% first dose
Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.’] – SMH
”
What I find fascinating about the above numbers is that the first dose numbers of NSW did not move for quite a while.
Ven , I have been watching this as well. Taken I think 5 weeks to creep from up the last 0.4% suggesting about 5% anti-vax – can’t-vax rate, much higher than ACT probably 2-2.5%.
Lars,
Liberal MHR Brigit Archer seems to think a Federal ICAC is something we need. She’s in a marginal seat and seconded Haines motion yesterday in Parliament.
Maybe she’s closer to the electoral pulse than you and your glib one liners.
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 9:53 am
The good folk of Deakin sit at their breakfast tables quietly outraged at the absence of a federal icac.
Sorry – it’s a Canberra bubble issue.
————————————-
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
·
An Albanese Labor Government will establish a National Anti-Corruption Commission.
It will be powerful. It will be transparent. It will be independent of government.
Ven
Vic is at 90 percent fully vaxxed for 12 years and older.
93 percent first dose for 16 years and older.
Based on projections by Anthony Macali, it is going to take another 75 days to reach 95 fully vaxxed for 12 years and older.
https://mobile.twitter.com/migga/status/1463727625252139012/photo/1
The low rate of vaccines for 12-15 year olds in NSW (it is topping out at 81%) will probably prevent NSW getting much above 95% for 12+/16+ and 80% whole population
Ven @ #62 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 9:56 am
—————-
Meanwhile, in sunny Queensland, the retiree State
What will COVID-19 look like come polling day?
According to the modelling, the opening of borders in all States by election day will mean that there will be a COVID19 surge in all States including those that were previously COVID free for some time- think SA, TASMANIA, NT, QUEENSLAND and WA there is very strong support for isolationist policy and mandatory vaccination for employees and customers in most places by the time the Federal election is called. .
The reintroduction of the threat of COVID19 will remind voters what the county has been through over the past two years. The bungled vaccine roll-out, the mounting death toll and constant threat of further outbreaks in all States will be in the minds of voters at election booths across the country. Especially, it would seem, amongst the older voters.
A September quarter Newspoll reinforced a demographic movement to Labor in older voters which may reflect a strong reaction to the impact of COVID19 deaths in Australia, most of which have been amongst older Australians.
The Coalition lead amongst those 65 plus in age fell from 65-35 to 59-41 [down 6 points] and among retirees down from 61-39 to 57-43 [down four points] from a robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case.
Lars:
Yeah, I don’t know about that one. Whenever I’ve been out door knocking as of late, nearly everyone we’ve spoken too has mentioned that they want a federal ICAC. It’s a popular policy, for reasons that should be blindingly obvious.
Goll says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 9:45 am
Boer,
Solomon Islands ?
…’
———————-
I wouldn’t like to be formulating the Australian response to the Solomon Islands, for the following reasons:
1. It constantly teeters on the edge of being a failed state.
2. There are far too many people for traditional subsistence farming and fishing to support. The rate of population increase is falling but is still high.
3. There is very little by way of manufacturing that it can export.
4. Its tourism services have been disrupted by Covid.
5. Apart from tourism there it has virtually no services it can export.
6. It is a cockpit for the big power fight between China and the US mainly because it sits astride the main sea route between Australia and the US.
7. China is active in trying to penetrate the Solomons. By way of a state-owned agency it sought last year to purchase all development rights for Tulagi for 99 years. It was stopped but it represented a massive geo-strategic jump for China, had it succeeded. (Not by way of coincidence, the Solomons was where the US chose to commence the rollback of Imperial Japan.)
8. There is history of violence against central/state authority.
9. Traditional farming, fishing and forest gathering economies are being undermined by timber extraction which is being fueled by foreign interests. Much of the timber goes to China which is planting squillions of hectares of forest within its borders.
OK, so the government is being threatened yet again because there are too many young men and women with no prospects other than a lifetime of poverty.
What should any Australian government do?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/01/lush-forests-laid-to-waste-how-pacific-islands-got-hooked-on-logging
Tim Paine won’t play in Ashes – looks like the end for him at 36.
For some sycophants it’s only a Canberra bubble issue when they hear His Master’s Voice declaring it such.
Just as HMV declared his personal honesty, integrity and trustworthiness to be Canberra Bubble issues. Of course, the honesty, integrity and trustworthiness of HMVs opponents are matters of national security. Just ask Mr Potatohead.
“Following discussions over the last 24 hours, Tim Paine has advised Cricket Tasmania that he will be taking a leave of absence from all forms of cricket for the foreseeable future,” Cricket Tasmania said in a statement released on Friday morning.
“Tim’s decision makes him unavailable for selection for today’s Marsh One-Day Cup match against Western Australia. His place in the squad will be taken by Charlie Wakim.
“Cricket Tasmania will continue to support Tim and his family both professionally and personally over the summer.”
Lars Von Trier:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 9:53 am
[‘The good folk of Deakin sit at their breakfast tables quietly outraged at the absence of a federal icac.
Sorry – it’s a Canberra bubble issue.’]
I think it’s a bigger issue than you give it credit for, if only
based on, “Why can’t we get a piece of the action.”
_________________________________
Ven:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 9:56 am
[‘What I find fascinating about the above numbers is that the first dose numbers of NSW did not move for quite a while.’]
It could be as a result of where the numbers are now. Now in the 90s, I think we’re nearly into the hesitants/the anti vaxxers.
Sad but good.
Probably good too if Todd Greenberg gets a senior role which makes CA something other than a complacent, idle and money hungry imitation of the Melbourne Club*.
Save as to reasonable steps on the promotion of women’s cricket.
This morning a representative of retail workers was reporting that rudeness and physical attacks have increased lately, no doubt partly because of pandemic rules, but also generally.
I can’t help thinking that Morrison’s lack of leadership in condemning violent protesters, and his tolerance for lies and illegal behaviour in his government, have contributed to the deterioration in manners. There is no one “at the top” setting an example. His supposed support of “Respect” is one of his more cynical moves.
I assume the Arthur Moses SC who co-authored Religious bill winds back hard fought protections provided by states is the same Arthur Moses SC of being seen a lot with Gladys fame.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/religious-bill-winds-back-hard-fought-protections-provided-by-states-20211124-p59bmb.html
Thanks BK.
Player One @ #38 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 5:51 am
What load of rubbish.
Both represent a real threat to the LNP.
Labor in the marginal seats, whilst the independents threaten safe seats that Labor has little chance of gaining.
All this adds up to the government having to defend on multiple fronts and issues.
ICAC / IBac – lawyers picnics with not much to show for their efforts.
We have elections for people to pass judgements – don’t need 10k a day silk to do it for us.
The issue of a federal ICAC is a significant political problem for the LNP. It is also a potential vote changer for selected demographics. I am not smart enough to know if it could change an election but… Bridget Archer crossing the floor is probably more of an indication of the electoral importance of the issue than whatever the f the site troll has to say on the matter.
Russia has elections. Wonderful democracy that.
To be expected from our PM…
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/solomon-islands-pm-blames-foreign-powers-as-unrest-grows-20211126-p59ce9.html
Re: Kangaroo Courts…I’m sure the former Australia Post CEO would have something to say about that.
A post from the ‘sure it was pork barrelling but the people voted for us therefore it’s OK’ school of morals, aka known as mob rule.
Shame that Paine looks like quitting cricket altogether. The “dick pic” he sent was in very poor taste and he was of an age to know better but do I have some empathy for him given four years elapsed between sending it and it being reported in the press, during which time he would’ve been on edge and there’s his family to consider.
Boerwar @ #70 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 7:13 am
When I was there in the 90s, Japan was a major investor, especially in logging and fishing.
It would be interesting to see if this is still the case.
Morrison campaigning in SA.
Will he come to WA?
Go on Scotty, do it.
The local Liberals, fighting internally over their lame duck parliamentary leader, could do with a pep talk.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #78 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 10:24 am
As I said, it gives you hope doesn’t it? With Labor unwilling to fight on any of the substantive issues,** thank god someone is willing to do so. They deserve support.
** According to Bob McMullen, Labor apparently thinks the NBN is the key issue of our times. Labor are going to go big, bold and hard on this critical existential issue. Oh, FFS!
Australians need to be protected agains the profound superstitions and other stupidities of the reactionary clerics and their idiotic followers. The LNP want to re-establish privilege for the irrational, the mean, the de-humanising and the vile. They are absolutely unfit to serve.
Electric Utes… The ford looks good too. And that hummer!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5XQGyrc7LE
Lars
People pass judgement based on information, and icac provides more information than is accessible from outside of politics.
Interesting to know that you’re ok with the normalisation of soft-corruption and the treatment of public money as political largesse.
Lisel von Trapp
“Sorry – it’s a Canberra bubble issue.”
Federal LNP Talking Point #12.
Working our way up the list, are we?
Player One @ #87 Friday, November 26th, 2021 – 7:34 am
You really have problem distinguishing between campaign tactics and acting when in Government.
What the hell is Schomo doing in South Australia. There is only one seat in South Australia up for grabs at the coming election, BOOTHBY where the incumbent is retiring and the polls suggest that seat is gawwwnn. He wont be back to SA any time soon.
That may well be your opinion, Lars – and Scott Morrison’s as well – but I don’t know if it is shared by much of the Australian people.
Look at this way. Can you think of an occasion in recent history where an Australian political figure was brought down for unethical behaviour and the public response was, “Oh, that poor dear, this is so unfair on them.”
Sam Dastyari, Mal Brough, Peter Slipper, Barry O’Farrell, Jackie Trad, Christian Porter, the list goes on. Each time, the general reaction from people who aren’t complete partisans like us was generally either total apathy or the feeling that they got what they deserved.
People seriously distrust politicians, and really do not give a damn if those politicians’ career ambitions are unfairly cut short. I think most people outside of New South Wales are already starting to forget who Gladys Berekjilian even was.
Someone is certainly in a bubble, but I suspect it isn’t the pro-ICAC crowd.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 10:31 am
….
When I was there in the 90s, Japan was a major investor, especially in logging and fishing.
…’
——————————————
Deflection. As usual?
The overwhelming majority of the Solomons forestry exports go to China.
South Australia has one of the few governments in the world which are still talking with Morrison.
Here in Deakin, Federal ICAC is looked upon favourably.
The LNP have more than 1 crooked Gladys amongst their lot…
[‘A newly identified coronavirus variant in South Africa is worrying British health officials due to its high number of mutations and rapid spread among young people.
It said it had mutations that were likely to evade the immune response generated both by prior COVID-19 infection and vaccination.
It also had mutations associated with increased infectivity, the UKHSA said.
Officials characterised the variant, which has double the number of mutations as the currently dominant Delta variant, as the “worst one yet”.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-26/africa-travel-restrictions-imposed-over-new-covid-19/100652438
Bloos @ 10.35am
“Australians need to be protected agains the profound superstitions and other stupidities of the reactionary clerics and their idiotic followers. The LNP want to re-establish privilege for the irrational, the mean, the de-humanising and the vile. They are absolutely unfit to serve.”
As in “kiss my ring” in an historical sense as distinct from the he modern profanity