Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.
Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.
Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.
The White House press statement:
Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS
SEPTEMBER 15, 2021
•
STATEMENTS AND RELEASES
As leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, guided by our enduring ideals and shared commitment to the international rules-based order, we resolve to deepen diplomatic, security, and defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, including by working with partners, to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century. As part of this effort, we are announcing the creation of an enhanced trilateral security partnership called “AUKUS” — Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Through AUKUS, our governments will strengthen the ability of each to support our security and defense interests, building on our longstanding and ongoing bilateral ties. We will promote deeper information and technology sharing. We will foster deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains. And in particular, we will significantly deepen cooperation on a range of security and defense capabilities.
As the first initiative under AUKUS, recognizing our common tradition as maritime democracies, we commit to a shared ambition to support Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy. Today, we embark on a trilateral effort of 18 months to seek an optimal pathway to deliver this capability. We will leverage expertise from the United States and the United Kingdom, building on the two countries’ submarine programs to bring an Australian capability into service at the earliest achievable date.
The development of Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines would be a joint endeavor between the three nations, with a focus on interoperability, commonality, and mutual benefit. Australia is committed to adhering to the highest standards for safeguards, transparency, verification, and accountancy measures to ensure the non-proliferation, safety, and security of nuclear material and technology. Australia remains committed to fulfilling all of its obligations as a non-nuclear weapons state, including with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Our three nations are deeply committed to upholding our leadership on global non-proliferation.
Recognizing our deep defense ties, built over decades, today we also embark on further trilateral collaboration under AUKUS to enhance our joint capabilities and interoperability. These initial efforts will focus on cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.
The endeavor we launch today will help sustain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. For more than 70 years, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have worked together, along with other important allies and partners, to protect our shared values and promote security and prosperity. Today, with the formation of AUKUS, we recommit ourselves to this vision.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/15/joint-leaders-statement-on-aukus/
UK Cartoons:
Test
I want to say thank you for this Labor. Good way to take control of the culture war.
@senthorun tweets
“Religious schools in Victoria will be prohibited from sacking or refusing to employ teachers because of their sexuality or gender identity…”
This is welcome news. No school should be able to fire a teacher (or expel a student!) for being LGBT.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/religious-schools-in-victoria-to-lose-the-right-to-sack-lgbtq-staff-20210915-p58rx5.html
BK
Indeed a bumper issue! Thank you
guytaur
You can’t expect to make a reference to something I haven’t been discussing (according to you) and for me to somehow psychically understand that you’re not responding to something I said but instead giving me a point I can riff off.
Look, you made a mistake. You attributed to me a comment I didn’t make (which is clear on re reading the thread).
Just admit it.
There is no shame in making mistakes and you just make yourself look ridiculous digging these holes.
Johnson called it a momentous decision for Australia to acquire the technology. He said it would make the world safer. “This will be one of the most complex and technically demanding projects in the world,” he said.
What could possibly go wrong, give we can’t build a canoe?
Defence Minister (David Johnston) Dutton says he wouldn’t trust the government’s own shipbuilding firm to “build a canoe”, seriously denting hopes the next fleet of submarines will be made locally.
Zoomster
It’s you looking ridiculous assuming a comment directed at you in a public conversation is an attack on Labor.
The LNP get the submarine deal wrong. Completely wrong. Therefore they agree to revive a colonial relic, the ties to the neo-Imperialist UK and the Royal Navy, and to further subordinate ourselves to the US.
Incredible incompetence from the Incompetent Party. Truly, a stunning effort in the stupidity stakes.
Morning all. So it seems that Defense is the latest portfolio to join in the omnishambles that is Morrison government “policy”. I can accept that the French contract decision was a disaster and needed replacing. But why didn’t they go back to the German bidder, who have reliably built submarines in partnership with Korea, Singapore and Taiwan to name a few?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-16/australia-nuclear-submarine-partnership-us-uk/100465814
Also, has South Australia just lost at least $45 billion of future Federally funded work?? This was a $90 billion contract, that was supposed ot be majority local content. Now the subs will be built in the USA. Another Morrison/Pyne lie.
Finally, anyone who says this will save us money is dreaming. I found this article informative.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/going-nuclear-would-us-submarines-be-a-cheaper-option/
Who knows where the nuclear subs will be built, if at all?
A $100 billion botched and rushed sub contract to buy a couple of seats in Adelaide and with Sophie, well-known to be brilliant in the technology space on the Board?
What could possibly go wrong?
A couple of billion pissed down the tubes.
A decade wasted with a yawning capability gap.
The worst possible technical combo: massive manned platforms, noisy nuclear engines with pissweak conventional weapons.
A massive further stepwise loss of our sovereignty and ability to make independent war decisions.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.FUCK.UP.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.CORRUPT.
guytaur says:
Thursday, September 16, 2021 at 8:25 am
Zoomster
It’s you looking ridiculous assuming a comment directed at you in a public conversation is an attack on Labor.
We make allowances for you, g. The bludgers can see you are not fully literate.
N
At least I am not mad saying the word Green means a vote for the LNP.
Amdrew_Earlwood @ #260 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 8:08 am
Okay, I’m going to reply to this garbled criticism that is obviously typed into your phone without being spell-checked for accuracy as your anger boils over. 🙄
The Labor Party supports the ANZUS Alliance. So there goes your, Australia’s indendwnce(sic) (I presume you mean ‘independence’) and safety argument.
In fact it was our last great Labor PM, with a specialty in China study, Kevin Rudd, who commissioned the White Paper and sounded the alarm bells about China’s recent military build-up, and Labor’s magnificent female PM, Julia Gillard, who strengthened and expanded our alliance with the US by expanding US Military positioning in the Northern Territory.
Now you can splutter and come up with increasingly bizarre abusive epithets to describe me, but the fact is any sort of ‘independent’ stance wrt China, like Jacinda Ardern mistakenly made, and which she reversed quickly once she realised what she had done, is only ever going to be exploited by China.
Sadly, you still seem to live in a fantasy world where China’s motives are pure.
Wake up, Earlwood!
guytaur
I didn’t assume anything. I asked you to explain why you addressed the post to me.
The AUKUS statement is really about UK and US selling submarines to Australia.
The rest is about enhancements to what is already happening:
Zoomster
You were talking about it.
Your assumptions were all your own.
As reprehensible as this AUKUS disaster is. Not least of which the stupidity of acquiring a wholly nuclear powered and manned submarine fleet at this stage, Labor would be well advised politically to support it all in principle, focus on the details, the LNP waste, then after the election – assuming it can form office, quietly and stealthily bury the nuclear subs proposal and drown AUKUS at birth.
However Labor needs to avoid the wedge at this stage of the gambit above all other considerations.
With luck, we can eventually repair that damage of the last 5 years over time.
Hurrah, a victory for the US+UK arms manufacturers. Another trough to get their snouts tucked into. Roll on the glorious cost blow outs to keep that gravy flowing. If there is one thing the ‘adults’ of the Strayan defence establishment know how to do it is paying way too much .
Nsays:
Thursday, September 16, 2021 at 8:25 am
The LNP get the submarine deal wrong. Completely wrong. Therefore they agree to revive a colonial relic, the ties to the neo-Imperialist UK and the Royal Navy, and to further subordinate ourselves to the US.
Incredible incompetence from the Incompetent Party. Truly, a stunning effort in the stupidity stakes.
So the Labor party will not support the deal. Yeah right, but you could be Green if so irrelevant.
N @ #759 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 8:25 am
No question.
But will this narrative ever see the light of day?
@VABVOX tweets
#BREAKING
Wow! Fantastic news out of Boston tonight as Michelle Wu, a progressive Democrat who ran on #ClimateCrisis and other significant issues, takes the lead in the Boston mayoral race after Tuesday’s primary. Historic!
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/us/boston-mayor-election-michelle-wu.html
This submarine deal will not revive Morrison’s fortunes. He will not be PM after next election.
.
Actually might be a bit quiet on here until they are told what to think and Labor makes its announcement.
Yup, this submarine/AUKUS nonsense is all bad news IMO. Very bad news on many levels. Until today I thought we could get out of this ATM government period with your usual amount of incompetence and corruption, but this … is mindlessly putting our future security at grave risk on top of extraordinary amounts of incompetence.
What a diplomatic and regional security disaster.
Victoria
Yes that’s the bad news for Morrison with Labor facing the political reality of the blackmail.
The talk across the ABC is orgasmic for Scotty’s announcement.
I’m about 2 years time a Labor government could pivot back to the French option – 6 convential subs and 6 nuclear subs. First one of each built in France this decade with the rest following out of the Osborne yard in Adelaide between 2030-45. In the meantime we may need to acquire 3-4 German diesel electric boats and upgrade Collins as interim measures.
OK, Morrison is saying now (before the election) that the nuclear Submarines will be built in Adelaide.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/16/australia-nuclear-submarine-deal-contract-france-scrapped-defence-pact-us-uk
Problems:
1. Neither Adelaide, nor the whole of Australia, has a Uni Engineering faculty with nuclear engineering expertise. Establishing one will take years, millions, and recruiting high level expertise from overseas. Then it will take years to train the local engineers. This is a ten year plan.
2. So when does construction of the first nuclear sub start in Adelaide? This is a complete new design. Even the ASC submarine building shed will probably need ot be rebuilt, since the US and UK nuke boats are twice the size (8000 tonnes vs 4500 tonnes) of the one we were designing.
3. What happens to the workers in the intervening years? ASC has been recruiting people in Adelaide. Do they have no work for five or ten years?
Unless of course this is an election year stunt and after the year we switch to buying US nuclear subs. Bye, bye, Adelaide jobs.
Good article
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/16/solid-legal-basis-for-nsw-vaccine-mandates-to-enter-businesses-expert-says
In short, NSW can do what it likes to restrain the unvaccinated – be interesting to see if any Human Rights bodies seeks to intervene in any court cases disputing exclusion of the unvaccinated.
”
sprocket_says:
Thursday, September 16, 2021 at 7:30 am
A short history of Liberal PM incompetence..
1. Tony Abbott promised the submarine contract to the Japanese.
2. Uproar ensued, with the next guy, Malcolm Turnbull promising the submarine contract to the French.
3. Uproar ensued, with the next guy, Scott Morrison promising the submarine contract to the USA.
The cost to the taxpayer of wasted billions, defence capability gaps and general incompetence is immeasurable.
”
This.
The constant changing of priorities whenever PM of Australia changes is the thing that worries me. No country of repute will deal with Australia with any confidence.
It doesn’t bother me that Australia will get Nuclear powered submarines. But don’t expect other countries in the region to give Australia a free pass.
@timhollo tweets
In the face of the climate crisis, the Federal Govt encourages & funds new coal & gas.
In the face of COVID, the Federal Govt bungles buying vaccines.
In the face of geopolitical instability, the Federal Govt buys nuclear submarines.
Making problems worse every step of the way
A new design (even if it is an evolution of either an American or British boat) nuclear powered, Australian built sub will not hit the water for testing, let alone commissioning, until after 2040.
Capability is an equation involving the sum of resources (money, manpower, technology, corporate know how and memory, training etc) and time.
Going from scratch to a fully fledged home built nuclear submarine fleet will cost the better part of a trillion dollars and 50 years to mature.
In the meantime we have unnecessarily antanogised the coming military super power, within our region, who is not our enemy, but whom we have had good religions with for the previous 50 years, notwithstanding the huge differences in our government structures and society.
That all makes sense. Doesn’t it?
Ah, guytaur.
One second the post wasn’t in response to anything said here, the next it is.
What a wonderfully agile brain you have.
Are you at all familiar with guytaur?
Adam Bandt.
Instead of de escalation of tensions with China the Government goes for a floating Chernobyl in major cities.
Zoomster
I did not say conversation was not happening here. I said it wasn’t started here. There is a difference.
So much for that theory.Actually, this only refers to the “Shortfin Barracuda”.I still think switching to the regular Barracuda is the simplest way forward.
guytaur @ #788 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 8:44 am
Mr Albanese said in a fiery interview this morning.
For those who think Australia should have new submarines there are a few submersed elephants in the ocean.
Nuclear submarines are missile platforms, they are not anti-ship weapons. They are not stealth weapons. They are noisy and can be detected by satellites in shallow water due to their cooling systems. Unless the missiles carried are nuclear they are a very expensive way to deliver missiles compared with aircraft.
The French deal was disastrous in a financial sense because we were effectively importing them. It was also ridiculous from a strategic point of view due to reliance on our French partners which could be a problem during a war. It was illogical from a secrecy point of view – when you have a stealth weapon you don’t want people to know how it works or more importantly, its capabilities – you build them entirely in-house. If we must have submarines we should have built our own enhanced Collins class while we still had the skills, the Collins class were immensely capable and on numerous occasions exposed the US navy’s inability to detect them.
If you get nuclear submarines you will get nuclear weapons to mount on them – it is their only purpose.
Question from an armament novice. What is the advantage of a nuclear power submarine?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #779 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 8:38 am
And 3 canoes.
”
guytaursays:
Thursday, September 16, 2021 at 7:35 am
Good Morning
I understand why and the inevitably of a LNP government going down the nuclear path.
What I object to as it was never going to alter the decision is the lack of democracy.
If we had a Labor government such a decision would have had public debate before any deals were signed.
Such a big strategic decision would have been done democratically. Not this fair accompli of here is the deal pass it or be traitors to your country approach.
”
Another issue which Morrison and LNP kept it secret till it cannot anymore.
The vic CHO said yesterday that Victoria has not reached its peak, and we should not be surprised if it reaches 1000
Today we got 514 from nearly 62,000 tests
Sigh
Socrates says:
Thursday, September 16, 2021 at 8:39 am
ASC needs the workers because the Collins is getting a major upgrade.
This the correct long term decision.
Will there be problems? Yes.
Will there be delays? Yes.
Does that mean we shouldn’t do this? No.
Next we need our own domestic nuclear processing and power industry. Then we need nuclear weapons.
Finally we are developing a real world defence policy instead of an Alice in Wonderland and Goldilocks one.
The AUKUS deal doesn’t automatically exclude other countries in the region from military and strategic cooperation with US and UK. In fact NZ, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines et al will certainly be included in US/UK efforts to counter Chinese influence.
The big difference is that Biden and Johnson have convinced Morrison to cancel the French submarine order (penalty payment of $? billion) and buy US/UK submarines instead. Quite a good sales effort really.
And Bandt is off and running!
From Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_submarine