Roy Morgan published its regular fortnightly (for so it now seems) federal voting intention poll on Wednesday, which recorded an incremental improvement for Labor on their already strong previous result. Labor was credited with a lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54-46 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (steady), Labor 38.5% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
Two-party state breakdowns are included as usual, showing Labor leading in New South Wales with 53% (a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election, and a gain of one point since the previous poll), in Victoria with 59.5% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of half a point), in Western Australia with 51% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of three-and-a-half points), in South Australia with 57.5% (a swing of about 9%, and a gain of three points) and in Tasmania with 63.5% (a swing of about 7.5%, and a gain of six-and-a-half points. The Coalition’s only lead is in Queensland with 53.5%, a gain of 1.5% since the previous poll but a swing to Labor of around 5% compared with 2019.
The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2735. Assuming this was divided between the states in proportion to population, sub-samples would have ranged from nearly 900 in New South Wales to less than 100 in Tasmania.
Speaking of Tasmania, the first EMRS poll of voting intention in that state since the May election was published yesterday, although it does not capture the impact of the latest developments in the David O’Byrne saga, having been conducted from August 7 to 9. The result is almost identical to that of the election, with the Liberals on 49% (48.7% at the election), Labor on 28% (28.2%) and the Greens on 13% (12.4%). Newly restored Labor leader Rebecca White trails Peter Gutwein 59-29 as preferred premier, compared with 61-26 in the pre-election poll in February. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000.
Yeah, sorry that the dopamine levels of the always online hyper-engaged weren’t considered when deciding rules regarding leadership changes. Voters in the real world don’t like it when PMs are constantly changed but you’ll have to forgive their ignorance – they see government as a tool for managing their society and economy, and that politicians playing stupid political games rather than running the country can cause negative effects on their livelihoods. They’re not big-brained enough to just see it all as a fun sport.
‘Confessions says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7:20 pm
zoom:
Rules can be unmade, but I think it’s very unlikely to happen this time.
For a start, Morrison enjoys strong support in the partyroom…’
______________________
They loathe him and/or they despise him. There is no honor among thieves. Dutton was within a vote or two last time. Dutton is busy working the room. He only ever makes public utterances that serve his personal political purposes. Dutton is coming for Morrison. If the 2PP is still around 54/46 nation wide with some staggering losses in states that Morrison has personally gone out of his way to alienate, Morrison is dead meat.
Of course he should do the right thing before Dutton knifes him. He is ankle deep in blood from Black Summer victims, Afghanistan War victims and Covid victims.
@Hugoaugogo
In truth, Morrison is nothing more than venal poilitician, whose over-riding political instinct is to win. He will therefore call the election for when he thinks he has the best hope of winning, and notwithstanding the attractiveness of a late November poll, an awful lot would need to line up from here for that to be possible.
______________________________
I think this is cannot be underestimated. SfM will say and do anything to win and that makes him dangerous. He is the founder, president, and life member of the self preservation society.
Apart from kinetic war prime ministers, has there been a prime minister who has more blood on his hands than Morrison?
Meher – no shock that i agree with each of those 3 things.
on #2, it seems ALP has taken concrete steps to not be those guys again – thinking of the tax cut acquiescence.
#1 is what it is, my thoughts that Albo needs to push harder to imprint some leadership/gravitas/rise to the occasion in the minds of the voting masses obviously not enamoured much here. I dont think ScoMo is particularly loved out there (nor was John Howard especially), but there is a burden to overcome on the devil-you-know front that doesnt take care of itself typically
#3 clearly yes, but this microcosm here is simply not reflective and catering to this group is frankly preaching to the converted which is not what is required to win. It would have been nigh on impossible for the ALP to win a federal election up to around June, but where things have moved subsequently are obviously now quite different. Sitting on a lead is one way to go, its what one would do if they knew that the more they put themselves out there the less people would be excited. If that is Albo (and i truly have no idea) then fair enough hope for the best baseball bat scenario to come to fruition. If it is not, then i dont get what the heck he is doing. This is his time to step to the plate?
Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders
Fake
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dallas-cowboys-cheerleaders-handmaid-uniforms/
I have no idea what this means:
‘
…At our current pace of roughly 930,000 doses a week, we can expect to reach the 40 million doses needed to fully vaccinate Australia’s adult population in mid April 2022.
…’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-05/vaccination-requirement-for-authorised-workers-extended/100435694
“He is ankle deep in blood from Black Summer victims, Afghanistan War victims and Covid victims.”
More like…
“Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders
Fake”
I don’t think anybody would assume that it is real. It’s called satire.
Fox News is a foreign ‘news’ outfit owned by a foreign corporation.
Why should our National Broadcaster, or any Australian politician or institution give anything more than zero fucks for the ruminations of foreigners?
What next? Genuflection to Russia Today? North Korea News?
Sceptic @ #1704 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 7:30 pm
Fake, but topically accurate. The latter thing being the actual point.
The Dallas cheerleaders photo is satirical.
boerwar: ”
…At our current pace of roughly 930,000 doses a week, we can expect to reach the 40 million doses needed to fully vaccinate Australia’s adult population in mid April 2022.”
Unless I’m missing something, it’s just plain wrong. It says there have been 10 million doses to date, when the actual number is well over 20 million.
At current rates, we are going to reach 40 million doses in November.
Edit: and we are close to 2 million doses per week rather than 930,000
@Sohar says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7:33 pm
“Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders
Fake”
I don’t think anybody would assume that it is real. It’s called satire.
_____________________________________
You underestimate the power of stupid in America
The fact that it had to be debunked on snopes shows just how stupid enough people are.
BW
It’s a chart which is about six weeks old. Present weekly vaccinations are double that.
Prime Minister Morrison will aim to get about 35 million* vaccines out by the end of October at which time he might be inclined to use the expression “mission accomplished” and he may or may not be persuaded not to use that expression.
*16 double dose = 41 million
I have said it here many times: don’t fear Morrison’s so-called “political genius”. There is no way 4 states, plus 2 territories, plus COVID-free LGAs of NSW and Victoria are going to ever forgive Scott Morrison and Gladys Berejiklian.
They are asking healthy states, territories and LGAs to give all that up for the Liberal Party’s political convenience. They’re asking the turkeys to vote for Christmas.
Speaking of Christmas dinner, this time Scomo and Gladys have bitten off far more than they can hope to chew.
Sohar at 7:33 pm
It is Texas so you never know. 🙂
Confessions:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7:20 pm
[‘For a start, Morrison enjoys strong support in the partyroom…’]
He surely doesn’t, most of his party were surprised by his 2019 win. His bestie is Robert, then Hawke but even his support is dependent on promotion way beyond his level of competence. There are few after them, eg, the gormless Tehan. Once a trend emerges – it hasn’t quite yet – the fact that he’s an accidental prime minister will become glaringly evident.
poroti
Going to be some excellent beach weather here later this week.
Nice to dream, aint it…
AE: “Fox News is a foreign ‘news’ outfit owned by a foreign corporation.
Why should our National Broadcaster, or any Australian politician or institution give anything more than zero fucks for the ruminations of foreigners?
What next? Genuflection to Russia Today? North Korea News?”
Fair enough. But, on the other hand, I feel somewhat puzzled as to why the ABC felt it was worth two whole Four Corners episodes to basically tell us what we already knew about Fox News. Sure, there was a certain amusement to be gained from some of the statements from former Fox employees. For instance, this one from Chris Stirewalt, former Fox political editor:
“I was under the false belief that…the Murdochs’ would elevate the value of news…They were not there to make Fox more mainstream. Quite the opposite.”
Whatever. I wonder what Ms Ferguson’s next startling revelation is going to be? That Green Left Weekly isn’t an objective journal of record?
The most disingenuous, blatantly dishonest piece of political skulduggery for yonks is the percentage vaccinated equals back to normal, being generously advertised by self-interest to buy votes from the many weird , uninformed and lazy coots who’ve been given to he privilege to vote.
The LNP organised a Royal Commission to entrap BS.
The only benefit from the election of SM is that SM has proven without the cost of a Royal Commission, SM is not a leader and not to be trusted.
The Covid virus has every intention of dominating the lives of Australians for years to come and will permanently impact on the everyday lives of Australians.
The temptation to revert to “she’ll be right” is not going to work this time.
The real concern is that Morrison and Berejiklian have so little regard for Australians that they propose self-motivated nonsense, deliver it in spades and are very comfortable with the knowledge that they will be believed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-05/pfizer-shipment-from-uk-vaccine-swap/100435676
I like this bit..
But speaking in Sydney, New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the doses from the UK would close a supply gap this month and help states boost vaccination rates. In exchange for the doses, two flights departed Sydney today with 200,000 doses of Tooheys New.
“I was very pleased when the Prime Minister announced that not just securing the extra doses, but that he would be personally flying the plane from the UK to deliver those doses directly to the people of New South Wales ” she said.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison, pictured below in Hi Vis unloading the first pallet of vaccines said
“I thought the best outcome for NSW was to fly the plane and unload the cargo myself to ensure safe delivery. While while I don’t hold a hose I can hold a pallet trolley”
OK who else has been missing The Shovel lately
Goll
Will be interested to see this “modelling” that Gladys is supposed to be trotting out in a week or so.
Cud Chewer at 7:45 pm
A glorious 25C here tomorrow.
As an ancient, I want to offer a couple of observations to a discussion earlier involving (I think) Tom, 1st & best and Tricot about the 1984 election, when Bob Hawke squandered his large majority thanks to over-confidence about being able to best Andrew Peacock.
Two additional factors which IMO influenced the outcome were Hawke’s being distracted by his daughter’s drug problems, and the introduction of an assets test on pensions. This was accompanied by a variation to taxation policy on lump sum retirement benefits, which discouraged retirees from blowing through their lump sum, in order to qualify for the pension and its fringe benefits. The pension and taxation changes were the subject of a ferocious campaign notably in the (then pre-Murdoch) Melbourne Herald. This was the good old days when newspaper influence remained significant.
On another 1980s topic, Mexican Beemer mentioned Hawke’s (infamous) promise “no child will be living in poverty by 1990”, when he ad libbed a part of his 1987 policy speech which more cautiously asserted that “no child need live in poverty”, based on the supposed generosity of the targeted child benefit payments.
On another 1980s topic, Mexican Beemer alluded to Hawke’s (notorious) promise that by 1990 no child would be living in poverty.
MB suggested he won two elections after that promise, which I think is slightly misleading. The claim presumably had a small positive influence on the 1987 result, and Labor fell across the line in early 1990, before the evidence of any shortfall in the progress of overcoming child poverty would have been complete.
[‘Fair enough. But, on the other hand..’]
I stopped reading at that point, dear Meher doing his best to be objective but not passing muster.
@Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7:52 pm
Goll
Will be interested to see this “modelling” that Gladys is supposed to be trotting out in a week or so.
___________________________________
As long as it isn’t, Aifix, lego, Plasticine or a photo shoot for Vogue
One wonders if Keating won in ‘96 would we be a republic by now. Sigh.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1681 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 7:02 pm
If we stopped mining coal on their behalf, indeed it would.
Vogon Poet @ #1689 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 7:08 pm
Gosh thanks. **blush**
However, I do have to point out that many here have never understood supply.
Cud, Gladys will kick the can along the road with her, “well obviousleee the modelling changes every day, so really there’s no point in releasing it today”.
Apparently next week she runs out of road. I’ll believe it when i see it.
Henry:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 8:03 pm
[‘One wonders if Keating won in ‘96 would we be a republic by now. Sigh.’]
Possibly though Keating presented too Irish on his father’s side.
‘shellbell says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7:37 pm
BW
It’s a chart which is about six weeks old. Present weekly vaccinations are double that.
Prime Minister Morrison will aim to get about 35 million* vaccines out by the end of October at which time he might be inclined to use the expression “mission accomplished” and he may or may not be persuaded not to use that expression.
*16 double dose = 41 million’
______________________
Thank you.
Jesus P1, you may be the smartest poster here, but you obviously don’t do irony.
Keating perhaps would have asked a simple question, “Do you want an Australian as our head of state”. Unlike Howard’s loaded bullshit.
The SmearStralian has an ‘Exclusive’ drop from the PMO…
Moderna vaccine rollout hit by delays
Australia’s first shipment of Moderna Covid-19 vaccines has been pushed out at least two weeks as waiting lists for the similar Pfizer jab blow out until November.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/03/morgan-54-5-45-5-to-labor-5/comment-page-35/#comment-3695180
While the wording of the referendum question might have been different, particularly if a direct election model was chosen to put to the people, however, the referendum would still have required all the details of the alterations to be public and provide grounds of attack for the proposal. The Coalition may also have found reason to unite against “Keating`s Republic”, making victory an uphill battle as the ALP has only ever got one referendum up.
The referendum question on the ballot paper was a reasonable description of the proposal voters were voting on. It is mainly the model that gets criticised, mainly by direct electionists, not it being described to the voters. Just describing it as an Australian head of state is indicative of a rather dishonest version of the republic uber alles attitude.
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 8:25 pm
The SmearStralian has an ‘Exclusive’ drop from the PMO…
Moderna vaccine rollout hit by delays
Australia’s first shipment of Moderna Covid-19 vaccines has been pushed out at least two weeks as waiting lists for the similar Pfizer jab blow out until November.
————
That should be the end of Morrison and his cronies
@shellbell:
“ Prime Minister Morrison will aim to get about 35 million* vaccines out by the end of October at which time he might be inclined to use the expression “mission accomplished” and he may or may not be persuaded not to use that expression.
*16 double dose = 41 million’”
__________
Fake 80% = just under 17 million over 16yo double vaccinated.
Given the one month lag between first and second jab of the pfizer (can be a minimum of 3 weeks, but it seems that one month is actually the go at the moment), 35 million jabs by the end of October probably includes 1.5 million 12 to 16yo high school kids (we hope), with probably 3-4 million over 16yos waiting for the second jab. So, by best guess is that the 35 million would breakdown to perhaps 15 to 15.5 million double jabbed, 1.5 million kids single jabbed and a further 2.5 to 3 million adults waiting for their second jab. Given the current bias towards NSW in vaccination rates, I suspect that NSW will be approaching fake 80% but most other states will not yet be at even fake 70%.
However, fast forward another 6 weeks and we should be at 85% of 85% (or a true 72% of the total population). Time THEN for some ‘mission accomplished’ style platitudes. Only 4 months late …
There are provisos however:
1. We (ie. all the members of national cabinet on our behalf) really need to focus on a vaccination rollout for all high school kids to be done and dusted over the next 12 weeks.
2. We need to make sure that regional and remote communities are not left behind.
3. We better do everything to ensure that the impressive vaccine take up in the community of all states doesn’t grind to a holt over that period.
Of course with the Gladys outbreak still rampant, and ScoMo determined to open up international boarders by year’s end, vaccines alone won’t be enough. That’s another conversation to be had.
Walked by the Bob Hawke memorial plaque in my radius last week and did think how he would have managed Covid.
A very immediate problem is that only 70% of Indigenous Australians are over 12 years old.
As of 4 hours ago Australia has administered 20,855,353 total doses.
32,800,000 required to achieve 80% coverage >16
12,000,000 to go @ 20,000/ day ( current ) = 60 days
November election?
Lets not forget Morrison original promises which he promised he would not break
Australians will be amongst the first in the world to get vaccines
1- 4 million Australians would be vaccinated by the end of March 2021
2- Upto 90% Australians would be vaccinated by October 2021
Edit
Up to 90% of Australians being vaccinated by October is going to fall short by a long way
“ As of 4 hours ago Australia has administered 20,855,353 total doses.
32,800,000 required to achieve 80% coverage >16
12,000,000 to go @ 20,000/ day ( current ) = 60 days
November election?”
Your not factoring in the gap in time between first and second jabs. Or – hopefully – that 12 to 16yos will get their first jab in that same period. So, add another 30 days (plus another 15 because things never really go smoothly, do they?). In other words, end of November to mid December.
Scrott had the % weasel sorted months ago. Remember, he was saying “offered” the vaccine not received the vaccine.
Isn’t that gathering illegal, given Covid restrictions?
I might be wrong , the latest an federal election can be held this year is 1st or 2nd week of december
Henry:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 8:16 pm
I admire Keating but he was not the person best placed to argue for a republic. Hawke may’ve been able to do so but was too populist. Turnbull, as prime minister, may’ve come close, but he was more concerned about other things – ie, Morrison, Dutton. It’s regrettable but true that only a Tory-endorsed republic will come to fruition. And it’s goodnight from him.