Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Labor maintains its strong lead in the latest Roy Morgan federal poll, while EMRS finds the state Liberals still well on top in Tasmania.

Roy Morgan published its regular fortnightly (for so it now seems) federal voting intention poll on Wednesday, which recorded an incremental improvement for Labor on their already strong previous result. Labor was credited with a lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54-46 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (steady), Labor 38.5% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

Two-party state breakdowns are included as usual, showing Labor leading in New South Wales with 53% (a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election, and a gain of one point since the previous poll), in Victoria with 59.5% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of half a point), in Western Australia with 51% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of three-and-a-half points), in South Australia with 57.5% (a swing of about 9%, and a gain of three points) and in Tasmania with 63.5% (a swing of about 7.5%, and a gain of six-and-a-half points. The Coalition’s only lead is in Queensland with 53.5%, a gain of 1.5% since the previous poll but a swing to Labor of around 5% compared with 2019.

The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2735. Assuming this was divided between the states in proportion to population, sub-samples would have ranged from nearly 900 in New South Wales to less than 100 in Tasmania.

Speaking of Tasmania, the first EMRS poll of voting intention in that state since the May election was published yesterday, although it does not capture the impact of the latest developments in the David O’Byrne saga, having been conducted from August 7 to 9. The result is almost identical to that of the election, with the Liberals on 49% (48.7% at the election), Labor on 28% (28.2%) and the Greens on 13% (12.4%). Newly restored Labor leader Rebecca White trails Peter Gutwein 59-29 as preferred premier, compared with 61-26 in the pre-election poll in February. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,848 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  3. I’ll give you the heads up if not already ,royal women’s hospital Melbourne had a +ve case go thru on Friday ,hundreds of staff will probably have to quarantine/ furlough, from tomorrow.staff being informed from this afternoon,get tested and isolate.
    ,

  4. Yep. Election in early December. This just came into my smh news feed:

    Major Pfizer shipment from England arrives in Sydney
    By Ashleigh McMillan and Latika Bourke

    A major shipment of 450,000 Pfizer vaccines from the United Kingdom has arrived into Sydney this evening.

    The shipment departed on Saturday morning local time from Heathrow, packed with so many doses that Qantas had to obtain special permission from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority to land because the flight was heavier than normal.

    And look at the plane Scotty’s little Irish mate used to bring it in:

    Perfect for a marketing photo op for?

  5. ”I think Anthony Green had an explainer saying [December] Federal elections had gone out of favour because governments figured out they don’t do so well in December. Correct me if I’m wrong.”

    The fact that December elections haven’t been held since 1984, although they were fairly common before then, would support this. Governments go when they assess that they have the best chances. I recall that Bob Hawke did poorly in 1984.

  6. poroti @8:59

    Yep, and it mentions 2% of cases end up in ICU, which is the figure I came up with yesterday.
    Given someone occupies an ICU bed for an average of 14 days, 1000 cases a day ties up 280 ICU beds
    Given that we have somewhere around 800 ICU beds, we’re going to be full house at 2,800 cases per day.

    Quite likely.

  8. Something for Cat, my take on the vax shipment

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-05/pfizer-shipment-from-uk-vaccine-swap/100435676

    I like this bit..

    But speaking in Sydney, New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the doses from the UK would close a supply gap this month and help states boost vaccination rates. In exchange for the doses, two flights departed Sydney today with 200,000 doses of Tooheys New.

    “I was very pleased when the Prime Minister announced that not just securing the extra doses, but that he would be personally flying the plane from the UK to deliver those doses directly to the people of New South Wales ” she said.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison, pictured below in Hi Vis unloading the first pallet of vaccines said

    “I thought the best outcome for NSW was to fly the plane and unload the cargo myself to ensure safe delivery. While while I don’t hold a hose I can hold a pallet trolley”

    OK who else has been missing The Shovel lately

  9. If Morrison wants to have an election in March or later, he had better have a solid plan for a booster rollout. If Israel is any guide cases may be rising again by then, and those who are most vulnerable who were vaccinated earlier in the rollout will be due by then, particularly if we follow the Pfizer recommendation of eight months. For this reason and others, November is firming a bit in my mind. We will be hitting targets and he can run on a platform of restoring freedom and normality. Of course, if he is confident he has a solid plan for boosters, then he may very well wait, but the last thing Morrison can afford is to go to an election with fears of another delayed rollout.

  11. In a fiery interview with #60Mins reporter Liam Bartlett, finance minister Simon Birmingham took on the unenviable job of explaining why 157,000 companies claimed $13 billion in JobKeeper payments when their businesses actually grew during the pandemic. https://t.co/3Ckdz1TdzT

  13. Matt31 – listening to Hunt today, I think the Feds do indeed have vax plans for 2022, involving both children and boosters for all, and that they have secured enough vaccines to do it. Given that this government has demonstrated time and again that they are hopeless at doing anything, I’m not at all confident that any of this will come to pass, but there certainly seems to be a plan.

    Possibly more grist to the mill on the March election theory.

  16. @C@t – there are other issues with a December election.

    Parliament is due to return on 18 October, with additional Budget estimates due for the week of 25 October. I imgaine the Government being hauled over the coals on rorts and COVID isn’t something they necessarily want. Not that estimates itself is something of joy for anything other than tragics and public servants.

    If Morrison wanted to avoid this – I’m convinced a justification for a November election is Parliament not sitting again until early February (not that I’m convinced November is it… just to be clear) – he’d have to call the election by the weekend of 16 October. An election on 4 December would be a 7 week campaign – historically, long campaigns generally don’t work out well for incumbents (see Hawke in ’84 and Turnbull in ’16).

  17. @Cat

    He’ll turn up sooner rather than later to hog the limelight in order to make a virtue out of the necessity of having to cadge them off the UK.
    ___________________________________

    Makes you wonder what political favour he now owes dear Boris for making him look good

  18. So every partial shipment from the UK, Singapore or elsewhere will have the full PR treatment and Morrison will proudly proclaim ad nauseum that he has yet again saved Australia?

  19. My thought on the election date is nobody here knows. Nobody is connected to anybody who knows (as much as some like to pretend they are) and everything reported here is just speculation and rumour.

    Regarding the idea of a November/early December poll, everybody else’s guess is as good as mine. I believe, by the amount of reporting on it, that Morrison is at least keeping it as an option right now and, if there is any behind the scenes movement around that timeframe, it’s to make sure their ducks are in a line at the time, in case Morrison does want to pull the trigger. It’ll all depend on how things are going in October.

    I think people have made some good cases for an early election and I think some people have made some good cases for waiting until March/April/May. I don’t think anybody is delusional, stupid, dreaming, doesn’t understand politics or any other put down for suggesting a timeframe because we’re all going by the same evidence. And, when somebody is inevitably proven right (or wrong), we can probably forgo the “I told you so” s and other smug remarks.

    I get that the uncertainty can be frustrating and stressful but the best the rest of us can do is just be prepared for anything. But don’t let me stop the speculation; this is, after all, a political discussion blog.

  21. It’s clear Morrison is hedging his bets. There are definitely strong cases for early, March and May. I dig in a bit in relation to early, not because I strongly think it’s the most likely- but to push back against those who are arguing it’s foolish or wishful thinking to suggest it.

    If it is going to be sooner, rather than later, those of us in the APS will start to get signals pretty soon. Offices/Minister start behaving differently and prioritising different things. But, of course, we can’t talk about it.

  23. Hugo

    There is a mindset that says that vaccines are only to protect people, not to confer herd immunity. This is born of a deeper fixation with the idea that everyone will get covid sooner or later, so why cheat Nature.

    That’s the underlying philosophy behind a lot of objection to vaccinating children. These “experts” actually don’t want herd immunity and vaccinating children is a threat to that.

    Don’t expect this government to put much thought into getting high take up rates of vaccination for 12-15 year olds and expect them to be blockers of the move to vaccinate 6-11 year olds.

    Fortunately, parents will get the hint and push back.

  25. Meanwhile in NZ (from Health Ministry website):

    Everyone in Aotearoa New Zealand aged 12 years and over can book their free COVID-19 vaccination now. It doesn’t matter what your visa or citizenship status is.

    Vaccine data & statistics
    As at 11.59pm on 2 September 2021
    % = eligible people in New Zealand (those aged 12 and over)

    30%
    are fully vaccinated
    That’s 1,264,629 people

    57%
    have had their first dose
    That’s 2,419,970 people

    71%
    are booked in, or vaccinated with at least one dose
    That’s 3,004,860 people

    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines

  26. The EV with replaceable batts posted early is good.

    Big fail on EV’s has been not being able to easily swap batteries. Most folk who are in multi dewillings won’t be able to charge at home for a long time. Nor all the 5 cars parked at share houses. Using onboard auxiliaries seems a great idea. The concept idea includes a battery roof rack that adds 120km. Extending that would be a battery trailer that could be attached for longer journeys, perhaps hired from the local garage.

    https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/09/the-best-new-electric-car-is-a-tiny-little-beast-that-can-swap-batteries-in-3-minutes/

  27. I’ll tell you for free what I’m hesitant about – I’m hesitant about sending my children back to primary school without vaccination, in an environment where the government has given up on suppression of COVID-19. It’ll rip through school communities in no time flat, and I’m not super stoked to find out exactly what kind of long-term lung damage you can get from an unchecked infection.

    By the by, if you’ve neglected to get your influenza vaccine so far this year, I’d sort that out if I were you – the word I’ve heard is that we’re expecting a pretty bad flu season when all this opening up really kicks off.

  28. Cud – you may well be right there, I’m just going on comments by Hunt over the weekend that the intention is to vaccinate the under 12s in 2022. As we know, this government is rather bigger on announcement than they are on delivery, but anyway that’s their messaging on it at the moment.

    As you surely know by now, I’m not entirely convinced on the need to vaccinate children straight away, given the evidence that it continues to be the case that children generally get less sick (I appreciate you and others have a different view on that). There is also the question of whether vaccines can be proved to be effective and/or safe in children (we will hopefully know more about that in the coming months).

    Finally, there is also the moral quandary about whether it is right for rich countries to hog extra vaccines to vaccinate lower-risk children, while large numbers of people in poorer countries remain unvaccinated. This goes beyond the rich/poor morality questions, of course, as virus mutations appear to accelerate in low-vax settings, creating variants that may yet break through here (which is basically the story of Delta). The old “no one is safe until everyone is safe” argument.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 9:16 pm
    Sceptic @ #1764 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 9:01 pm

    Just thinking about that SfM photo.. Am I being overly sensitive or is it the worst act in a long line of low acts that Scott committed…

    Using a photo taken at a specific memorial event with the dignitaries & families that have suffered a loss & turn it into a PR stunt. The man is totally devoid of empathy or any moral principles, everything but everything is a PR stunt.
    Events and people, even his own family, are just props to Scott Morrison.

    ….shades of morgue porn….

  31. One point I keep trying to make is this.

    There’s no sustainable practical and politically tenable future without effective herd immunity and a policy that says that covid is brought down to the level of an annoyance (a few tens of cases here and there). Not at the level of 1,000+ cases which will tie up health care resources permanently.

    The idea that we can “live with covid” where “living with covid” means staying just under the red line of our hospital system is bunk. We cannot continue to tie up a large fraction of our health care system for many years – because if we keep covid at this level it will take many years to “burn” through the population.

    The only kind of “living with covid” that is sustainable is the kind where we have achieved something close to elimination. (It will always be brought in from overseas – but just won’t spread).

    Those who think that covid will become less deadly because of vaccination are right. But all this does is shift where the red line is, in terms of cases. Today, 3,000 cases a day will tie up most ICU beds. When 80% of the population is vaccinated, it might require 15,000 cases a day to create the same result. But where does that get us? At 15,000 cases per day, it still takes several years for the virus to find its natural limits (start to run out of people).

    Do we want to have a health care system at breaking point for years? Or do we want effective herd immunity?

    – 80% of the entire population vaccinated. That includes 12-15s and most 6-11s.
    – 95+% of those over 60 and vulnerable.
    – A continuation of full contact tracing, isolation and reportage (of cases, exposure sites)
    – Mask wearing when in public, indoors and outside of a controlled venue (vaccinated only)
    – All social, recreation and fitness sites restricted to those vaccinated (+with boosters)
    – Extensive use rapid testing. High risk workers, anyone travelling intercity, air travellers
    – Extensive availability of do it yourself rapid testing

    That’s what effective herd immunity looks like. And we won’t be alone. I predict New Zealand will go this way and by all accounts Singapore is also seeking effective herd immunity.

    We’re going to soon discover that we can’t treat covid as a flu. If it mutated and became less destructive and deadly, yeah. But chances are it won’t for some time. There will always be a “red line” where the number of cases is high enough that we cannot allow it to grow, yet at the same time that rate of infection will never confer natural herd immunity for years.

  32. byron,

    Nice find.

    Swappable batteries are a winner, in my opinion, especially if they are swappable between home and vehicular use.

    With that specific EV, I can imagine a configuration where two are in the car during the day while two are at home charging from rooftop solar. Get home and swap them over; and then put the built-in batteries in the car on a trickle charge if needed.

  33. Dandy, Byron,

    Roof rack batteries, no one, and i mean no one will be able to lift them onto the roof racks.
    Well I know for sure I wouldn’t be able to life a 50KG battery onto my Rav 4.
    High frequency fast charge from 3 phase outlets will be the future.
    The next NBN style project will be rolling out fast chargers everywhere.

  35. Sooner or later Gladys has to realise that R > 1.0 is not an option and R = 1.0 is unsustainable, practically and politically. At R > 1.0 our society will break down. At R = 1.0 our hospitals will be strained to the limit, indefinitely. There are far too many uninfected people for covid to go away, even with vaccination reducing the effects of the virus.

    So what is she going to do towards getting to effective herd immunity?
    At some point, despite the howls of protest from the freedom brigade, she’s going to have to do things they don’t like. Stuff like keeping masks and stuff like not allowing exceptions to vaccination on entry. Stuff like enforcing testing for those that travel intercity.

    Is she up to it?

    In this regard, I’d expect Daniel Andrews to be far more likely to show leadership.

    There is even a scenario where Victoria aims for effective herd immunity starting around December, gets to near zero cases in February and all the while continues to impose border restrictions and then vaccination/testing at the border.

    And meanwhile, Gladys could stuff things up.

    Good backdrop for an election.

  36. Julian Hill is by a far distance Labor’s best parliamentary performer at he moment. Smashing the Tories time after time. Very impressive.

  37. Dandy

    Yeah, the swappable batteries could be useful. Leave them at home most of the time to act as your backup, but take them with you on long trips.

    The only problem is that you’re going to need a bunch of 2.5 KWhr modules to do a house. I’d need about a dozen of them.

  38. caf

    “I’ll tell you for free what I’m hesitant about – I’m hesitant about sending my children back to primary school without vaccination, in an environment where the government has given up on suppression of COVID-19. It’ll rip through school communities in no time flat, and I’m not super stoked to find out exactly what kind of long-term lung damage you can get from an unchecked infection.”

    You’re probably speaking for many parents. The experts really don’t get this. It may be a very low risk, but parents don’t think that way. And nor should they have to if its preventable.

    And I also think a lot of parents are thinking “I don’t want my school age kids bringing this back to my house”.

    The government will resist because they want everyone to get infected. I think that parents will drive this one.

  39. Hugo

    Firstly the government is shit. Secondly you miss the point entirely about children being less likely to get sick. This might be true, but they are very good vectors and vaccinating them will bring us one step closer to effective herd immunity.

    And finally, the supply issue is due to become irrelevant. Vaccine supply will catch up in the next few months. We can afford to vaccinate our children and triple our foreign aid. That is if we weren’t being governed by neo-liberal shitheads. And of course if you care, you could always vote Labor, who are more likely to not slash the overseas aid budget.

  40. As part of trying to understand these conspiracy theorists, I browsed through my (Pentecostal ) niece’s FB page which had numerous anti vax/masks posts , anti big pharma and found this official looking website mentioned several times:
    https://www.covidplanb.co.nz/

    Wonder if the same movements are here, covertly undermining our elimination efforts.

  42. Efficiency, AR. Every trip through the inverter is more load. The cheapest energy is the energy you don’t use.

    And options. Call me a capitalist if you want, but I believe having lots of options is a good thing in a rapidly evolving technology space. Let the market decide.

    Cud,

    “The only problem is that you’re going to need a bunch of 2.5 KWhr modules to do a house. I’d need about a dozen of them.”

    You’d only need enough to swap. There’s a big’un in the car that never comes out and put in a big’un at home.

  44. I’ve been driving a BEV for a couple of years now and I don’t see swappable batteries going anywhere, for non-commercial vehicles at least.

    Much easier to sort out a 15A socket in everyone’s car space at an apartment complex. It’s hardly rocket science to provide that.

  45. caf

    I don’t see swappable batteries catching on for regular motorists either. But the genius with this design is that they put a main battery into the car that still gets you usable range and you don’t have to use the swappable batteries.

    Id love to see an option where you don’t buy the swappable battery packs at all

  46. Gladys being part of the problem:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/nsw-and-sydney-lockdown-gladys-blows-up-over-rapid-antigen-testing/news-story/0014ef9cc6d61b4a77211946306e6341

    We need rapid testing. We need it mandated in various places and we also need it available to anyone, anywhere. We’ve needed it since last year. Its worked well overseas and we need to give the curmudgeon’s responsible for the delay a kick up the ass.

  48. The UK had 41,000 cases on Sep 3rd.
    That’s equivalent to 18,000 cases here.

    The UK had 121 deaths on Sep 3rd.
    That’s equivalent to 55 deaths here – or 20,000 deaths annually. And extremely bad flu.

    Cases are rising.
    Deaths are rising.

    Its been 2.5 months since “freedom day”.
    The UK is 63% fully vaccinated. A further 7.3% are single dosed.
    In addition, the UK has about a quarter of its population already infected, providing further immunity.

    So the UK is far more immunised than we would be if we got to a Scomo 80% target.
    And..

    https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+hospital+crisis

    Not a word from Scomo or Gladys about the UK situation.. or our media for that matter.

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