Roy Morgan published its regular fortnightly (for so it now seems) federal voting intention poll on Wednesday, which recorded an incremental improvement for Labor on their already strong previous result. Labor was credited with a lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54-46 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (steady), Labor 38.5% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
Two-party state breakdowns are included as usual, showing Labor leading in New South Wales with 53% (a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election, and a gain of one point since the previous poll), in Victoria with 59.5% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of half a point), in Western Australia with 51% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of three-and-a-half points), in South Australia with 57.5% (a swing of about 9%, and a gain of three points) and in Tasmania with 63.5% (a swing of about 7.5%, and a gain of six-and-a-half points. The Coalition’s only lead is in Queensland with 53.5%, a gain of 1.5% since the previous poll but a swing to Labor of around 5% compared with 2019.
The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2735. Assuming this was divided between the states in proportion to population, sub-samples would have ranged from nearly 900 in New South Wales to less than 100 in Tasmania.
Speaking of Tasmania, the first EMRS poll of voting intention in that state since the May election was published yesterday, although it does not capture the impact of the latest developments in the David O’Byrne saga, having been conducted from August 7 to 9. The result is almost identical to that of the election, with the Liberals on 49% (48.7% at the election), Labor on 28% (28.2%) and the Greens on 13% (12.4%). Newly restored Labor leader Rebecca White trails Peter Gutwein 59-29 as preferred premier, compared with 61-26 in the pre-election poll in February. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000.
Prime minister Scott Morrison, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and family release doves in honour of children killed a year ago during the launch of i4give Day Source: NCA NEWSWIRE
Feb 2021
https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/happy-birthday-in-heaven-heartbroken-parents-reflect-on-daughter-s-death-one-year-after-oatlands-crash
@Scott – by convention, elections are not held in December and January, but if you’re pushing it, the absolute latest would be 4 December. But in reality and by historic norms, 27 November.
At the moment the average vaccines per day is 270,000 and NSW/ACT are 42% of that (while representing 34% of the population).
They are going to run out of people to vaccinate at that rate in NSW/ACT in October.
jt1983 says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 8:51 pm
@Scott – by convention, elections are not held in December and January, but if you’re pushing it, the absolute latest would be 4 December. But in reality and by historic norms, 27 November.
———
Thanks
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/03/morgan-54-5-45-5-to-labor-5/comment-page-35/#comment-3695197
The only legal restriction on how late in the year an election can be held is that it has to be on a Saturday, so technically Saturday the 25th of December is the last day an election can be held this year.
Thanks tom the first and best
meher baba says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7:01 pm
rhwombat: “Has anyone seen Expat Wormtongue (or Grimaaugogo) on the same page as Meher Baba? Similar voice, similar condescending pretense of reasonableness in defence of “diversity” while covering for the selfish arseholes who have wrecked the joint over the last 12 months.”
These posters have nothing to do with me. I’m increasingly a lurker these days: the fervour of the Labor partisanship on here lately has made me feel disinclined to engage much: what’s the point of trying to participate in a debate in which one is going to get howled down most of the time?
Re the discussion this evening. It seems to me that most posters on here are at risk underestimating three factors:
1 ) the political cunning of ScoMo;
2) the lingering unpleasant memories in the minds of many voters of Labor’s attack on wealth accumulation in the last election (and don’t imagine that ScoMo isn’t going to bring it up during the election campaign at every conceivable opportunity); and
3) that arguments that go down very well with the demographic to which I belong and which I suspect is represented very strongly on PB (tertiary-educated, currently employed/retired from work in the public sector or a publicly-funded institution) might not play the same way among the predominantly privately- or self-employed voters of the marginals who decide elections.
If the election is fought on health, Labor will win. If it’s fought on other ground, the forces of evil will have a chance.
This must be a screamingly loud ‘fire alarm’ for NSW health given the up and up and up of numbers.
.
More than one in 10 people in NSW with COVID now end up in hospital
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/more-than-one-in-10-people-in-nsw-with-covid-now-end-up-in-hospital-20210905-p58oyv.html
P1″ the smartest on poll bludger” didn’t read the article, just posted a link with nonsense that one expects from the best Liberal troll on poll bludger.
Despite the surge in prices, Mr Tanevski noted that the volumes of the seaborne thermal coal trade had not returned to their highs of 2019.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), an anti-fossil fuel lobby, said the smaller size of the trade was of greater significance than the prices in the market.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-09-05/resurgent-coal-market-hits-new-high/100431418
Yes – I’m going by convention, not constitutional limits.
(CORRECTED) The latest practical date for an election this year would be Saturday December 11. At a pinch, they could do the 18th but I think that this is just too close to Christmas. The latest that I can remember is the 13th in 1975 (don’t mention the War). The next ‘normal’ time would be to call an election on January 27 for Saturday March 5. Any earlier would mean campaigning over the holidays and the Austalia Day weekend.
Just thinking about that SfM photo.. Am I being overly sensitive or is it the worst act in a long line of low acts that Scott committed…
Using a photo taken at a specific memorial event with the dignitaries & families that have suffered a loss & turn it into a PR stunt. The man is totally devoid of empathy or any moral principles, everything but everything is a PR stunt.
sprocket_
Quelle suprise!
The vaccines never seem to turn up, unless they “fall off the back of a truck” when almost expired.
ACT must be close to a cert to go 90% vaccinated.
Now 94.7% over 50 have had their first vaccine.
@steve – I’m only going by the fact the last there hasn’t been an election later than 10 December in over 45 years, and the latest after that was 1 December in 1984.
Later than 4 December would be very unusual – actually – even 4 December would be unusual.
Having said that – I can believe if Morrison wants to call some kind of national emergency election – he could go that late.
The reason convention has it that we don’t have elections in January/February is that these are prime holiday times, and a significant number voters are thus away from home.
This is unlikely to be a consideration early next year…..
*I’m still tipping absolutely as late as possible – IF Morrison is still PM and IF God doesn’t intervene.
Ouch! 60 Minutes just kicked Josh Frydenburg and Scott Morrison in the goolies over JobKeeper/DividendMaker. Worth catching up with if you haven’t seen it.
Matthew Guy is about to challenge O’Brien.
Sceptic @ #1764 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 9:01 pm
Events and people, even his own family, are just props to Scott Morrison.
From Antony Green —
‘The three-part answer on “when can” the election be held is –
The first date for a normal house and half-Senate election is 7 August 2021, if announced this weekend and writs are issued by Monday 5 July.
The last date for a normal house and half-Senate election is 21 May 2022. This date gives six weeks to complete the complex Senate count and allows Senators to be declared elected and start their terms on 1 July. A mid-May election would be announced in early April 2022.
There is a highly improbable option for a half-Senate election by 21 May 2022 and a separate House election as late as 3 September 2022.
The short answer on “when will” the election be held is –
when the Prime Minister thinks his government has the best chance of winning, or
if prospects look grim, the last possible date.’
https://antonygreen.com.au/when-can-the-next-federal-election-be-held/
So I’d be going for May (unless God).
lizzie
Thought that was a permanent state of affairs…
Lizzie @ #1771 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 9:15 pm
How pathetic are the Victorian Liberal Party? The guy that lost them some of their blue riband seats that had never been lost before the last election, is going to lead them again!?! What, to an even greater loss?
My dates in order of likelihood based on my own assessment and total lack of faith Morrison will not react like a cornered rat.
1. 5 March 2022
2. 27 November 2021
3. 21 May 2022
This is a US transport planning blogpost but may be of interest to Bludger students of the culture wars. In USA the question of whether someone is pro- or anti- car orientated suburbs is increasingly defined on political lines. Republicans are pro-car, democrats are pro- walkable suburbs.
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2021/09/03/the-real-reason-red-america-loves-cars/
I have not seen any comparable surveys of Australian voting blocs. US suburbs are notoriously unfriendly to pedestrians so I do not suggest the detailed findings necessarily transfer from USA to Oz. But the broad trend (right voters prefer roads; left voters prefer PT and bike-lanes) probably does.
This might give food for thought next time people are deciding what to promise at election time.
Why don’t the Victorian Liberals just go the whole hog and bring back Boss Hog, Jeff Kennett, from outside the parliament, a la Campbell Newman? You know he’d say, ‘yes’, in a heartbeat.
I am quite sad that I have finished watching the 3 seasons of All Together Now, on Amazon Prime. Johnny English was a star, Rebecca Gibney a spunk and Garry Who a good bloke. Took me back to the early ‘90’s. Good times.
Victoria could have a new opposition leader within days as former Liberal leader Matthew Guy seeks the support of colleagues to topple leader Michael O’Brien in a party room coup his supporters are proposing to call as early Tuesday.
Mr Guy has been considering a return to the leadership for a number of months but has consistently and publicly denied he would seek the job he held between 2014 and 2018, culminating in a devastating election defeat to Premier Daniel Andrews.
Four Liberal Party sources, speaking anonymously to reveal internal party affairs, said the former leader had begun calling Liberal MPs on Sunday to seek their support to win back the leadership of the ailing state party. Sunday was the first time Mr Guy has told colleagues outside his inner circle that he intends to run.
Mr O’Brien fended off a leadership challenge from backbencher Brad Battin earlier this year after Mr Guy and his supporters voted against the rebel group. However, since that challenge, followers of Mr Guy and Mr Battin have put behind them a period of personal animosity in the attempt to improve the Coalition’s political prospects by removing Mr O’Brien.
Parliament is set to sit this week after a weeks-long break. However, it is not clear whether a full party room meeting will be able to be held due to density limits. Opposition MPs have sought advice from Parliament’s presiding officers to determine whether the full party room of 31 MPs can meet in the same room on Tuesday.
If the party room meeting cannot be held, party sources say Mr Guy’s supporters are determined to find any way to conduct the leadership spill. The state election is due to be held in November next year.
‘shellbell says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 9:04 pm
ACT must be close to a cert to go 90% vaccinated.
Now 94.7% over 50 have had their first vaccine.’
_________________________
I believe you may be correct. Barr has, in a general way, referred to 90% at least once. All the people I know who are in our age cohort (70+) are double jabbed. Most of them would line up for a booster were one to become available. For younger peeps, I know of no hesitants, provided Pfizer is available. Many took a punt on AZ. I know of only one refusenik. She has severe health problems including immune issues, and may be in a situation where she is damned if she does and damned if she does not.
It’s not a convention to not hold an election in December. I don’t know where that idea came from. Of course, you won’t have an election at Christmas time but there is nothing preventing an election in early December (aside from any politics associated with it.) Elections typically aren’t held in January but that’s an issue of convenience – a lot of people are on holidays at least in the early part of January.
The only month, IIRC, that an election hasn’t been held in is June but, again, that has nothing to do with convention but instead because of the relationship of that month to Senate terms. It’s too late to hold a half-Senate election in June and, if you were having a Double Dissolution election, it’s the absolute latest month that the beginning of the elected Senators’ terms will backdate to July 1 in the previous year, instead of July 1 of the current year. In theory, a snap House-only election could be held that month but those aren’t really pursued anymore.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/michael-o-brien-s-liberal-leadership-under-threat-as-matthew-guy-makes-his-move-20210905-p58p0p.html
Michael O’Brien’s Liberal leadership under threat as Matthew Guy makes his move
By Paul Sakkal
September 5, 2021 — 9.00pm
Victoria could have a new opposition leader within days as former Liberal leader Matthew Guy seeks the support of colleagues to topple leader Michael O’Brien in a party room coup his supporters are proposing to call as early Tuesday.
I think it will be 3rd of September 2022. The excuse for not holding the house election with the senate election will be interesting. In May the shit will still be revolving around the fan.
Bushfire Bill @ #1734 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 8:15 pm
And you clearly don’t do sarcasm.
“Up to 90% of Australians being vaccinated by October…”
I read that as an upper limit, i.e. not more that 90%.
Honesty or weasel words? I offer no opinion (this time).
frednk @ #1759 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 8:59 pm
Well, I got you to read the article. Which may have elevated your understanding of the issue.
Or … perhaps not. 🙁
Still, we have to keep trying …
It’s not a convention to not hold an election in December. I don’t know where that idea came from. Of course, you won’t have an election at Christmas time but there is nothing preventing an election in early December (aside from any politics associated with it.)
This is what I think and said so last week.
* 70 and 80% achieved, for better or worse
* businesses allowed to open up again
* Christmas shoppers filling the malls
* Scammo patting himself on the back for a job well done
* Rubbishing State Premiers who want to be ‘Scrooge’
Makes sense to me. Deal with the crap that hits the fan because of it after he has been re-elected.
He doesn’t care about the public health implications. They are just problems to be managed. And if Labor kick up a stink about it he’ll paint them as the Grinches that want to ruin Christmas.
What’s not to like for a Marketing Man?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/03/morgan-54-5-45-5-to-labor-5/comment-page-36/#comment-3695237
Maybe the excuse would be fewer ballot papers to distribute/vote with/count, leading to less infection risk?
Going April or later would reduce the SA Liberal Government`s re-electability.
The Government would get pasted in a half-Senate only election, finding it hard to win third senators in many states.
”So I’d be going for May (unless God).”
Unless the Rapture occurs and Morrison and the God-botherers in his party are sucked up into Heavon, leaving us heathens below to sort things out…
If Michael O’Brien is knifed by the little lobster it will be a very sad day for Victorian politics.
No COVID news story was complete without MOB putting in his jocular 2 bits worth. He played the best comedic straight man I have ever seen. Such a relief, particularly in lockdown 2 and 4.
I suppose all good things must come to an end.
I don’t see this myself. It relies on too much going right. Yes,
including Delta, the already over-stretched NSW hospital system, Scott Morrison’s management capabilities, overseas vaccine loans and the readiness of 5 other states (including a fuming Victoria) and 2 territories (plus non-COVID-afflicted LGAs in NSW and Victoria) not to get pissed off at having to get sick or even die to fulfill Scotty’s political ambitions.
Lockdown and isolation rules are likely to be in place, as well, to counter outbreaks.
It’ll be a disaster in SloMo.
How is holding court with an organised crime figure not an immediate disqualifying event for an Opposition Leader? I don’t understand how Guy remains in the parliamentary party, let alone is gunning for the leadership.
So for that photo, the context wasn’t as it actually seemed.
He has no shame.
For some reason I am reminded of a line from Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban:
Sirius Black:
Brilliant, Snape; once again you’ve put your keen and penetrating mind to the task and as usual come to the wrong conclusion. Now if you’ll excuse us, Remus and I have some unfinished business to attend to.
@caf says:
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 9:44 pm
How is holding court with an organised crime figure not an immediate disqualifying event for an Opposition Leader? I don’t understand how Guy remains in the parliamentary party, let alone is gunning for the leadership.
_______________________________________
That is because those standards are only applied to Labor leaders and Ministers
December Federal elections:
1/12/1984
10/12/1977
13/12/1975
2/12/1972
9/12/1961
10/12/1949
10/12/1955
19/12/1931
16/12/1922
13/12/1919
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Australia
December elections used to be relatively common, but have fallen out of favour in recent decades.
While I have no interest in seeing the Victorian Liberals succeed and Michael O’Brien definitely seems like a dud, Matthew Guy is definitely not the answer.
Some of the 2018 election wasn’t entirely the fault of the Vic Libs and Guy. The Andrews Government had only been in power for a single term and things were good in Victoria, and the Liberal brand was on the nose at the time, due to recent federal leadership dramas. No opposition leader was going to win that election.
That said, Guy is out of touch and has the appeal of a cold, dead fish (or a lobster.) If the Vic Liberals want to start being competitive again, they need to stop playing musical chairs between the same hacks and go for somebody fresh and, at the next election, maybe clean their house a bit too.
But whatever, I am not going to give the Vic Liberal Party free advice on how to win elections.
I look at the vaccination figures and I see the following.
7,469,406 doses have been administered in NSW. This is 91.9 doses per 100 people.
820,007 doses have been administered in NSW in the past week. This is a further 10.1 doses per 100 people.
32.8% of people in NSW have received 2 doses and 26.3% have received one dose.
To get to 80% of the population being full vaccinated, we need 180 doses per 100 people.
At the current rate this would require (180-91.9)/10.1 = 8.7 weeks. So, 5th November.
But that’s a very optimistic estimate.
If you look at other countries what you always see is the classic S shaped curve, with an inflexion point that varies. In the US, the inflexion happened around 35%. In the UK, around 45%. In Singapore around 65%.
Reading between the lines, I see us reaching 120 doses per 100 people (60% equivalent) by late September, 140 doses per 100 people (70% equivalent by late October and 160 doses per 100 people in mid to late December (the long tail kicks in).
Perhaps. If we do extremely well as a society. If the vaccination passport idea is pursued ruthlessly. If getting your 12+ kids vaccinated becomes the social norm.
We are not going to get to the point where we’ve vaccinated everyone who wants to be vaccinated until into January. And also give some thought to the issue of waning immunity with time and the need to start giving booster doses, which for some will come as early as November.
If you look at overseas experience, nothing good comes out of being less than 70% vaccinated (population as a whole figures). Those countries nudging 80% seem to be showing some resistance. Even in my most optimistic mood, the danger doesn’t ease until December and during October/November we will either have very high levels of restrictions or explosive growth of the virus. Choose one.
Steve
I think Anthony Green had an explainer saying Federal elections had gone out of favour because governments figured out they don’t do so well in December. Correct me if I’m wrong.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/03/morgan-54-5-45-5-to-labor-5/comment-page-36/#comment-3695252
I presume you mean 10/12/1955, rather than 10/12/1961.
You missed:
5/12/1964 (half-Senate only)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Australia