Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Labor maintains its strong lead in the latest Roy Morgan federal poll, while EMRS finds the state Liberals still well on top in Tasmania.

Roy Morgan published its regular fortnightly (for so it now seems) federal voting intention poll on Wednesday, which recorded an incremental improvement for Labor on their already strong previous result. Labor was credited with a lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54-46 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (steady), Labor 38.5% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

Two-party state breakdowns are included as usual, showing Labor leading in New South Wales with 53% (a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election, and a gain of one point since the previous poll), in Victoria with 59.5% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of half a point), in Western Australia with 51% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of three-and-a-half points), in South Australia with 57.5% (a swing of about 9%, and a gain of three points) and in Tasmania with 63.5% (a swing of about 7.5%, and a gain of six-and-a-half points. The Coalition’s only lead is in Queensland with 53.5%, a gain of 1.5% since the previous poll but a swing to Labor of around 5% compared with 2019.

The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2735. Assuming this was divided between the states in proportion to population, sub-samples would have ranged from nearly 900 in New South Wales to less than 100 in Tasmania.

Speaking of Tasmania, the first EMRS poll of voting intention in that state since the May election was published yesterday, although it does not capture the impact of the latest developments in the David O’Byrne saga, having been conducted from August 7 to 9. The result is almost identical to that of the election, with the Liberals on 49% (48.7% at the election), Labor on 28% (28.2%) and the Greens on 13% (12.4%). Newly restored Labor leader Rebecca White trails Peter Gutwein 59-29 as preferred premier, compared with 61-26 in the pre-election poll in February. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,848 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 37
1 2 37
  1. D&M,
    Thanks for your posts, particularly the Xmas one! I’m sure many of us can learn from your wise grandfather.
    A lovely post to wake to.

  2. Apparently , in NZ there is a policy that when you test positive, you are given an hour to pack your bag and then a Ministry of Health car arrives at your place to take you to a safe quarantine place that is monitored by security.
    They don’t trust people to home quarantine, which I think is key.
    Especially with large households where they can’t avoid virulent aerosol transmission .
    Also wish that at these daily Covid press sessions, mention is made of practical things to do in the home while such as opening windows, using hepa air filters and even some tips for those who are suffering Covid at home.
    Otherwise it just feels like the daily school assemblies of old.

  3. Thirded?

    Anyway, me too, D&M. A lovely story, reflected in our own family in its own way. I’d bore you all with it but HugoAuGoGo will no doubt be along to admonish me for hogging the blog, so I won’t. 🙂

  4. The Binchicken goes for the ol’ ‘everyone dies of something’ schtick . She really doesn’t care how many die in the name of her avoiding electoral pain from her incompetence in handling Covid-19. Koalas people, same same.
    Contact tracing to scale down, app to be used for site alerts.

    ……..Ms Berejiklian urged the community to “put things into perspective,” as rising vaccination rates paved the way for the gradual reopening of NSW from mid-October………………………“You are going to have death. You have death with the flu … 50 people every day lose their lives to heart disease

  5. It looks like Dr Omar Khorshid is having a very positive effect on thinking:

    Education experts want a national plan for ventilating schools and testing teachers as communities learn to live with the coronavirus, with doctors backing calls for teachers to be vaccinated as a priority.

    Australian Medical Association president Dr Omar Khorshid said if the country started living with COVID and could not yet immunise children under the age of 12, teachers should be prioritised for vaccinations.

    … Dr Khorshid said measures including opening windows or installing HEPA filters could be one measure to reduce the spread of coronavirus in school communities.

  6. poroti:

    I don’t listen to her pressers these days, but did hear her say that on the news last night and nearly dropped the saucepan I was filling with water. It came across as completely callous and uncaring.

  7. Confessions

    It came across as completely callous and uncaring.

    That is exactly the impression I have got from her over the last few weeks. She’s a nasty piece of work.

  8. The first 6 weeks or so Gladys always looked panicked at her press conferences. Like she couldn’t believe what (little) they were doing wasn’t having an effect on the spread.

    Then she was just indifferent, like she just wished it would all go away and was just going through the motions day in, day out.

    But last night was the first time I’ve heard her actually sound like she doesn’t really care about people and whether they die. They showed a map last night on the news of vax rates per suburb, and the highest of the highest rates of vaccination in all of Sydney are in some North Shore suburbs. I know Gladys and most of her cabinet have electorates on the North Shore, so perhaps she feels it’s okay to dismiss the idea of people dying from Covid because she knows that her and her constituents are among the most protected people in the city.

  9. Confessions says:
    Friday, September 3, 2021 at 6:47 am

    I’d Say she got internal pressure from the male counterparts to do something and from federal to ‘let her rip to open up the country, and she’s like why the fuck I care anymore….

  10. You can probably safely predict , Morrison and his cronies chances of majority government by retaining or gaining seats from Labor is over , with the talk of court action against W.A borders again

  11. I think when Gladys realised that her “methods of control” weren’t working, like any politician, she’s rationalising the situation. “We’re the best, and if we couldn’t do it, no one can.”

    What bugs me is that she wants to take the rest of Australia down the rabbit hole with her, just to prove that “We’re the best, and if… etc….”

    A complete cock-up from the start.

  12. I think when Gladys realised that her “methods of control” weren’t working, like any politician, she’s rationalising the situation. “We’re the best, and if we couldn’t do it, no one can.”

    Spot on lizzie.

    And now that NSW isn’t the gold standard many proclaimed it to be, the coalition and their media acolytes are targetting states like WA, whose stellar efforts at quashing the virus have long sailed under radar.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    If not for a Pauline Hanson sidestep, the Parliament would have forced the government to reveal details of businesses that received billions in JobKeeper support that they didn’t need. But the attempt to impose transparency isn’t over yet, explains David Crowe.
    The NSW government will significantly scale down its contact tracing as COVID-19 vaccination rates rise, instead relying on people being alerted via their smartphones when they have been at a venue of concern.
    Once upon a time, the vaccine rollout may not have been a race, but it sure is now. It’s all that matters, says Phil Coorey.
    Leaders of COVID-free states have been told to vaccinate and prepare for the virus to spread and people to die as the country learns to live with the coronavirus once vaccination targets are hit. Ahead of today’s national cabinet meeting, Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly urged state and territory leaders to stick to the national recovery plan as Queensland and Western Australia continue to threaten to go their own way. Yes, but the caveats of the plan need to be aired and understood.
    As the number of COVID victims requiring admission to intensive care units steadily climbs, a couple thousand ICU beds have gone missing – or Gladys Berejiklian has not been accurate in claiming NSW had “quadrupled” its ICU capacity since the pandemic started, reveals Michael Pascoe.
    Katherine Murphy and Paul Karp report that the Morrison government has moved to keep national cabinet deliberations secret by introducing new legislation intended to blunt the impact of a recent tribunal decision that would have allowed access to key documents. Rea Patrick has said, “Scott Morrison is clearly a sore loser, but more importantly he’s still trying to stifle public scrutiny of national cabinet decision making as well as many other dealings of federal, state and territory governments”.
    The Australian tells us that, according to a new report prepared for the national cabinet, state and territory health systems will withstand high Covid-19 case numbers with the support of ­private hospitals when lockdowns and restrictions ease under the national reopening plan.
    David Crowe opines that the Queensland Premier is so determined to go her own way that she bent the Doherty Institute medical advice to suit her needs.
    Now is the time to adopt a new narrative for living with COVID-19 by replacing getting to zero with minimising the harm, argues Sandy Gifford.
    With no more COVID zero, we’ve hit a new stage. But the states are more fractured than ever, explains Michelle Grattan.
    We live longer and healthier than ever, but Australia’s COVID mismanagement jeopardises this proud record, opines Dr Alex Wodak.
    NSW’s deputy opposition leader, Chris Minns, says in this op-ed that vaccine passports are the way ahead and he urges Berejiklian to ignore the expected backlash from her MPs.
    The most disturbing aspect of The Age’s disappointing editorial yesterday is its undermining of the state’s public health messaging and compliance efforts, opines Jenny Hocking.
    The Victorian lockdowns have not been a waste. Victorians’ collective efforts have saved many thousands of lives; and those Australians living in relative freedom in other states can partly thank Victorians for that, argues Aisha Dow.
    Rob Harris and Annika Smethurst wonder if, after early success, bickering has got in the way of the national cabinet.
    Amid a media blitz from Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to hold wavering states and territories to what he has called a “very clear plan” for reopening, those at the front line of Aboriginal health are reminding leaders the modelling assumes homogenous and healthy populations. Averages strike again!
    Scott Morrison is struggling to hold together a fractured federation of different states behaving more like different countries than one nation, complains Jennifer Hewett.
    Annika Smethurst says that the Coalition has imploded in Victoria’s hour of need.
    The SMH editorial says that political squabbles are masking the larger reality of life with the virus.
    A Sydney doctor has been hauled before the NSW Medical Board after he questioned evidence behind Covid-19 vaccines and promoted unapproved treatments, including Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin, in a case that will test the limits of what medical professionals can say publicly.
    Nick Bonyhady reports that on last night’s Q&A, Grace Tame has described for the first time how being sexually abused as a child made her later fall into a series of violent relationships as she issued an urgent call for a drastic upgrade of education for children about respect and consent.
    Andrew Leigh says that JobKeeper wasted billions, and the ‘politics of envy’ defence doesn’t stack up.
    Matthew Elmas lays out a timeline of JobKeeper rorts, bungles and scandals.
    Sarah Martin writes that Pauline Hanson claims she had the federal government’s blessing to announce an $8m grant for a Rockhampton hospice, saying the Nationals MP Michelle Landry had no role in securing the funding.
    “This federal government will not fix sexual harassment at work. Not at your work, nor at mine. Members of the government don’t even appear to be all that interested in fixing what happens in their own workplace. This government is not interested in listening to women, except the ones in its own party”, laments Jenna Price.
    Over the last two Mondays, ABC Four Corners aired a two-part investigation into News Corp’s most lucrative global asset, the New York-based Fox News channel, writes David Donovan on “Murdoch and the big Australian lie”.,15473
    Shane Wright reports that from the quiet CBD to the bustling regions, Infrastructure Australia believes the pandemic requires new thinking of the nation’s infrastructure needs.
    Mike Foley tells us that industrial communities around the country could be winners from the federal government’s move to legalise offshore wind farms.
    The NSW government is pushing through new coal exploration areas in the state’s mid-west, which have been labelled unviable and “corrupt” by independent experts even as the G7 call a halt on all new coal mining reports Callum Foote.
    Home Affairs’ resources allocation is fundamentally flawed and with a reduction in visa lodgements since the pandemic, has an even heavier caseload, writes Lina Li.,15467
    The Reserve Bank will take part in an international project testing whether digital currencies issued by central banks could be used to make cross-border payments cheaper and quicker than the complex systems used today.
    The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission sees more than 300 notifications of prospective company mergers a year but considers only 1 or 2 per cent of them contentious and opposes even fewer. So why is its chairman Rod Sims now campaigning for a radical overhaul of competition laws, asks Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    Paul Williams looks at the George Christensen formula and how maverick MPs succeed in Australian politics.
    The corporate regulator’s new chief enforcer says she is shocked at the obstructive and delaying tactics used by banks and has warned that litigation will still be a significant part of her arsenal. Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) deputy chairman Sarah Court said speedier investigations and enforceable undertakings would also be a priority as the regulator pressed the reset button on its “why not litigate” strategy, reports the AFR’s Michael Pelly.
    Andrew Tillett writes that Paul Keating has accused the Morrison government of “wantonly leading Australia into a strategic dead end” by needlessly provoking China and abandoning foreign policy independence to become a “fawning acolyte” of the US.
    Private health insurance operators in a sector dominated by four companies are experiencing a revival in fortunes thanks to the virus, but it might not last, explains the AFR.
    The world’s No 1 automaker shocked the global market by announcing it would slash its output of cars this month by 40 per cent after a covid outbreak at its key wiring harness manufacturer in Vietnam.
    Meanwhile, Amanda Bosely tells us that both major supermarkets are feeling the strain of the east coast Covid-19 outbreaks, with thousands of staff forced to isolate and positive cases at distribution centres leaving some supermarket shelves bare.
    Joe Biden ha said he is launching a “whole-of-government effort,” including from the White House counsel, to combat a strict new Texas abortion law after an overnight Supreme Court decision let it stand. You’ve got your work cut out on this one, Joe!
    Roe v Wade died with barely a whimper. But that’s not all, writes Laurence H Tribe.
    Justice Sotomayor wrote a blistering dissent on the US supreme court failing to block an extreme Texas abortion law. Here it is.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope nails it!

    Matt Golding

    Jim Pavlidis

    Cathy Wilcox – oh yes!

    Mark David

    Andrew Dyson

    Peter Broelman

    Mark Knight

    John Spooner

    Simon Letch

    From the US

  14. From the smh:

    Pandemic to alter face of nation: Infrastructure plan needed as work from home expands
    The nation’s peak infrastructure agency says we need an ambitious approach to deal with the changes in our cities and regions caused by COVID-19.

    Oh boy will ScoMo not like that. Sounds like some left wing plot!

  15. Raf Epstein @Raf_Epstein

    Hearing low 200s today for the Covid number in Vic today


    We are due to hit 70% at one dose (16+)
    on 20 Sept

  16. Speers showing his true colours having a crack at the Queensland Premier for his wooden spoon.

    Uuuuum what about the NSW Premier flaying about having cracks at everyone else but not sorting own backyard out.

  17. I wish there was some way of proving how much of the latest Victorian spread developed, either directly or indirectly, out of the protest march.

  18. pr

    “We are due to hit 70% at one dose (16+) on 20 Sept”

    Not sure why that has become a landmark for easing off but I think it will be achieved a few days earlier with Victoria first doses edging up.

  19. Dan has a much tougher job now that his message won’t be “We can beat this,” but has turned into “We must try to keep the numbers as low as possible.” We’ll see how he handles it.

  20. Odds are though, much of this spread is occurring in essential workplaces that can’t close down, just like it was in NSW. I don’t think rulebreakers has much to do with it.

    If it is though, who can blame them? I think I’d go nutty after 200+ days locked down.

  21. Apropos, David Crowe’s article today about the most non-transparent ‘Transparency Amendment’ to deal with JobKeeper overpayments we have ever seen…

    Really? I mean, really? Are some of us happy to keep voting for a federal government that throws our money around like confetti in order to either buy votes from particular electorates in an election campaign, or during their term of government devises novel new ways of exploiting the issues of the day to turn on the money spigot and direct it at companies that don’t even have to do very well off their own endeavours in the free market, just be able to influence the decisions of the Treasurer?

    Is that what we really want to be as a country? The Land of the Spiv and the Rorter? Really!?!

    I guess it depends on how much room there is at the trough. And this federal government devises new and novel ways of fattening that pig for market day, also known as the election. A trough and a pork barrel for everyone who votes for us!

    But if you don’t sign on to our way of doing business then we will hound you, for the amusement and to the delight of those who have bought into our project for the nation.


  22. BK

    “NSW’s deputy opposition leader, Chris Minns, says in this op-ed that vaccine passports are the way ahead and he urges Berejiklian to ignore the expected backlash from her MPs.”

    He may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but he has not been demoted yet.

  23. Lizzie

    The spread is occuring between households.

    We are not supposed to visit other households unless for caring and generally not travel outside your 5 km bubble.

    Sadly the two women who died at home the other day. One from Northcote in her 40s and the other from Hume in her 60s. 30 km away from each other. Both from the same community and known to each other.

    As hinted to the premier by the type of questions from the journos, people are visiting other households, and once again they are big families.
    This is very frustrating.
    Lack of English or otherwise is not an excuse.
    This is what has in the past and continues to drive this outbreak.

  24. You gotta hand it to the Age. The disgraceful
    Editorial which got a lot of backlash is now being countered by the piece lauding Victorians.
    What a joke

  25. There was some talk on Twitter in past few days that Morrison was wanting to have election on 27th November.

    I guess why all this talk of opening up by then in time for xmas front and centre.

    Perhaps he thinks it will be better than March next year. The question is why?

  26. Victoria

    Workplaces and families are the traceable clusters. There seem to be more cases than usual outside these, which is why I’m thinking some of this must belong to people who refuse to obey the safety rules.

  27. Dr Sally @slsandpet
    According to Barnaby Joyce the only jobs are in tourism or mining. To him we clearly are a third world country. So that’s why they’re destroying the Universities

  28. Lizzie

    There will be an element of this as well.

    At one of the pressers earlier in week, community leaders were present to reinforce the message to their communities.

    The premier also reiterated all the work these leaders were doing within their communities.

    The problem is that these families are large and they interact with other large families.
    They are not helping themselves nor the wider community.
    I find it a continuing source of frustration.

  29. Despite the predictions that things can turn good for Morrison once the vaccine is rolled out ,
    there is no evidence to suggest Morrison and his cronies will recover , because it wont turn out good for many reasons
    There will likely be hundreds deaths in 2022 due to Australia being open up, the questions will be again on the incompetence of the vaccine rollout out
    , and the roll out of the boosters whether they can be rollout in a competent timely manner
    so for Morrison and his cronies will be hoping there is enough of Australians to fall gullible to the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units deliberate misleading and lies

  30. Victoria records 208 new local cases of COVID-19 and one further death

    Victoria has recorded 208 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 and one more person has died with the virus in the state.

    Of the new cases, 96 are linked to known outbreaks.

    The new cases were identified from 48,572 test results received yesterday, while there were 33,511 doses of vaccine administered at state-run sites.

    From today, the number of communities in the Victoria – New South Wales border bubble will be reduced, and there will be fewer permitted reasons to cross the border.

    Victorian health authorities said with more than 1,000 new cases per day and a trajectory of exponential growth, the risk NSW posed was too great.

  31. SfM & PHONy party in phoney war…

    Pauline Hanson claims she had the federal government’s blessing to announce an $8m grant for a Rockhampton hospice, saying the Nationals MP Michelle Landry had no role in securing the funding

    But we always knew Pauline was only there so the ratbag right Liberal voters had somewhere to feel comfortable.


    Staring at America’s Dystopian Future

    In 1940, Alice Duer Miller wrote a beautiful epic poem called “The White Cliffs.” An American who had married a British man just prior to World War I, she soon lost her husband serving a country that wasn’t hers. As she penned the poem, she faced the possibility of losing her son to World War II, again for a country not her own. Yet, her last poetic lines are these: “I am American bred. I have seen much to hate here – much to forgive. But in a world where England is finished and dead, I do not wish to live.”

    Imagine loving a country that is not your own so much. Then consider not loving your own country anymore because it has dragged you into a very dark place, a place of fear and disillusion, a place growing more dystopian by the day.

    In the space of just a few days, we have watched a Congressperson promise to shut down media organizations if they complied with legal subpoenas, we saw a state pass draconian laws that inhibit voting rights in dramatic, disturbing and undemocratic ways, and then we watched as that same state ignored the constitutional right to abortion granted to women in 1973. On top of that, the state, Texas, granted vigilante rights with financial incentives to any citizen who didn’t want to grant women that right.

    Just let the idea of private bounty hunters sink in. They might be husbands or boyfriends, angry neighbors, relatives, friends, pastors, people who think pregnancy by rape or incest is not so bad, folks who hate the idea of abortion but especially like the thought of a $10,000 reward. Some may be devout, but they are all devious and despicable. Over what ideologies might other states consider employing them?

    Then came the most stunning blow of all in the form of the unbelievable and terrifying silence of an overwhelmingly conservative and politicized Supreme Court in the face of Texas’s deeply dangerous, and replicable law; a law so hideously and overtly fascist, a law wreaking with the stench of secret police in autocracies and dictatorships like those of Italy’s Mussolini, Romania’s Ceausescu, and today’s Vickor Orban in Hungary. How can any American not be sickened by that level of betrayal?

    Justice Sonia Sotomayor, one of four dissenting justices, unleashed her fury and spoke for many of us in her minority opinion: “The court’s order is stunning,” she wrote. “Presented with an application to enjoin a flagrantly unconstitutional law engineered to prohibit women from exercising their constitutional rights and evade judicial scrutiny, a majority of justices have opted to bury their heads in the sand. The court has rewarded the state’s effort to delay federal review of a plainly unconstitutional statute, enacted in disregard of the court’s precedents, through procedural entanglements of the state’s own creation. The court should not be so content to ignore its constitutional obligations to protect not only the rights of women, but also the sanctity of its precedents and of the rule of law.”

  33. @Raf_Epstein tweets

    Hearing low 200s today for the Covid number in Vic today


    We are due to hit 70% at one dose (16+)
    on 20 Sept (@migga)

Comments Page 1 of 37
1 2 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *