Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Labor maintains its strong lead in the latest Roy Morgan federal poll, while EMRS finds the state Liberals still well on top in Tasmania.

Roy Morgan published its regular fortnightly (for so it now seems) federal voting intention poll on Wednesday, which recorded an incremental improvement for Labor on their already strong previous result. Labor was credited with a lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54-46 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (steady), Labor 38.5% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

Two-party state breakdowns are included as usual, showing Labor leading in New South Wales with 53% (a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election, and a gain of one point since the previous poll), in Victoria with 59.5% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of half a point), in Western Australia with 51% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of three-and-a-half points), in South Australia with 57.5% (a swing of about 9%, and a gain of three points) and in Tasmania with 63.5% (a swing of about 7.5%, and a gain of six-and-a-half points. The Coalition’s only lead is in Queensland with 53.5%, a gain of 1.5% since the previous poll but a swing to Labor of around 5% compared with 2019.

The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2735. Assuming this was divided between the states in proportion to population, sub-samples would have ranged from nearly 900 in New South Wales to less than 100 in Tasmania.

Speaking of Tasmania, the first EMRS poll of voting intention in that state since the May election was published yesterday, although it does not capture the impact of the latest developments in the David O’Byrne saga, having been conducted from August 7 to 9. The result is almost identical to that of the election, with the Liberals on 49% (48.7% at the election), Labor on 28% (28.2%) and the Greens on 13% (12.4%). Newly restored Labor leader Rebecca White trails Peter Gutwein 59-29 as preferred premier, compared with 61-26 in the pre-election poll in February. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,848 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. One Hour ago RDNS_TAI tweets

    Wondering what the Doherty modelling really says about ‘opening up’? I’m about to talk to @wendy_harmer on @abcsydney about the fat that 80% vaccinated adults still means 9 million unvaccinated Australians #auspol #COVID19Aus

  2. Victoria @ #35 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 8:10 am

    Lizzie

    The spread is occuring between households.

    We are not supposed to visit other households unless for caring and generally not travel outside your 5 km bubble.

    Sadly the two women who died at home the other day. One from Northcote in her 40s and the other from Hume in her 60s. 30 km away from each other. Both from the same community and known to each other.

    As hinted to the premier by the type of questions from the journos, people are visiting other households, and once again they are big families.
    This is very frustrating.
    Lack of English or otherwise is not an excuse.
    This is what has in the past and continues to drive this outbreak.

    There’s a very big loophole that I can see there. The members of the families going to other family member’s houses are probably saying to themselves that they are just caring for the other family member. Problem is, that other family member is likely ill from the Delta Variant of COVID-19. Then they bring it back home to their own family and on the chain of transmission goes.

  3. look at the lies Morrison and his cronies with the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units have already start about Australia to be open up , they are claiming they are not going to let the corona virus rip through Australia .
    In the next breath they are telling the states/territories who do not have corona virus cases to get their hospitals ready and telling people that there will be deaths.

    So doesnt that mean they are letting the corona virus rip throughout Australia

  4. @AmyRemeikis tweets

    There are many levers that can be pulled to address this. But those in charge of the levers simply don’t want to

    @swrighteconomy tweets

    In a big numbers day, here’s a few more. Since Aug last year, the median house value in Sydney has climbed $307k or $843 a day. In Melb, by $173k ($473 a day). In Canberra, $218k ($596 a day) and in Hobart $169k ($457 a day).

  5. Scott @ #52 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 8:51 am

    look at the lies Morrison and his cronies with the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units have already start about Australia to be open up , they are claiming they are not going to let the corona virus rip through Australia .
    In the next breath they are telling the states/territories who do not have corona virus cases to get their hospitals ready and telling people that there will be deaths.

    So doesnt that mean they are letting the corona virus rip throughout Australia

    We’re going to look back at the breathtaking audacity of what’s to come and wonder how they got away with it …..while we’re watching (those who can stomach it) Scotty’s Second-Coming victory speech.
    Don’t think it can’t happen.

  6. Lizzie

    From same article

    Some 84 per cent of the state’s paramedics, or 4,637 people, have received at least one dose of the vaccine, with 68.4 per cent receiving two doses.

    The figure for all Ambulance Victoria workers was 4.3 per cent, or 292 employees, declining to be vaccinated.

    Of all Ambulance Victoria staff, 67 per cent or 4,531 people have received two doses of the vaccine.

  7. NSW contact tracing change, as posted last night, this is totally at odds with Doherty report conditions for easing easing restrictions at 70/80%…

    I doubt the press will ask the hard questions at 11 today.

    The National Cabinet Plan agreement is dead, buried , cremated.

  8. I received a letter in our letterbox yesterday gleefully announcing by how much house prices are projected to rise in the coming months, as people sell out in Sydney and then come up here looking to make another fat profit off the real estate market up on the Central Coast. You could virtually see the drool marks on the paper of the real estate agent that wrote the letter. It disgusted me. However, it’s the money-go-round that the Coalition are happy to keep going because it’s their base of people who will never vote anything other than for the Liberal Party.

  9. Finally a journalist asks a valid question about apps. Note I am commenting only about the app not the contact tracing.

    @JoshButler tweets

    I know there’s been so many problems with COVID apps, but why wasn’t ‘a phone alert if you were at an exposure site’ ALREADY the first & most basic feature of these? Seems like the most useful thing, rather than hope people check exposure lists every day

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-to-scale-down-contact-tracing-with-smartphone-alert-for-exposure-sites-20210902-p58o96.html

  10. C@t

    There is no loophole.

    Families cannot visit their families in other households.

    This is what has been occurring.
    They have been continually told this by their community leaders. But still continue to do it.

  11. And Labor should be breathtakingly audacious too, if that’s what it takes to win the election. Highlight people in their electorates who have died from COVID-19, family permission granted, and get photos of them and testimonials from their family members describing what lovely people they were, and then just simply say that they would probably be alive today if Scott Morrison hadn’t screwed up the response to the pandemic. Brutal, but effective.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 3, 2021 at 9:06 am
    And Labor should be breathtakingly audacious too, if that’s what it takes to win the election. Highlight people in their electorates who have died from COVID-19, family permission granted, and get photos of them and testimonials from their family members describing what lovely people they were, and then just simply say that they would probably be alive today if Scott Morrison hadn’t screwed up the response to the pandemic. Brutal, but effective.

    _______________________________

    Sounds ugly, but we know from what the Libs did re Pink Batts that is exactly what they would do too.

  13. This Morgan poll is another data point in a narrative that the Morrison government is in trouble, and if this lead is maintained, Labor would win 15-20 seats. Which is why I think a November election is unlikely – we need to start seeing a trend (however small) back to the government over the next 5 weeks or so for Morrison to think he has a chance of winning. Starting an election campaign at 46-54 behind is not normally a winning strategy, which is why I think we’ll be voting in March. It seems to be generally the situation in most places that Covid cases decline to some degree in the warmer months, and at the same the cumulative effects of long lockdowns and high vaccination rates will also likely have a dampening effect. This will give SloMo the room to spin a story that the pandemic is over and that happy times are ahead (not saying that’s true of course, just that it’s a plausible election pitch. Meanwhile the long Australian summer snooze will dim memories of the hard winter.

    Of course, if the polling numbers haven’t moved (or even worsened) by January, he may well yet hang on until the bitter end and hold the election in May, but all things considered, early March seems the most likely timing.


  14. porotisays:
    Friday, September 3, 2021 at 6:25 am
    The Binchicken goes for the ol’ ‘everyone dies of something’ schtick . She really doesn’t care how many die in the name of her avoiding electoral pain from her incompetence in handling Covid-19. Koalas people, same same.
    .
    .
    Contact tracing to scale down, app to be used for site alerts.

    ……..Ms Berejiklian urged the community to “put things into perspective,” as rising vaccination rates paved the way for the gradual reopening of NSW from mid-October………………………“You are going to have death. You have death with the flu … 50 people every day lose their lives to heart disease

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-to-scale-down-contact-tracing-with-smartphone-alert-for-exposure-sites-20210902-p58o96.html

    Initially she did not prepare people for cases in thousands but gave the impression that if NSW reach 6 million doses people in “LGAs of concern” will have lot of “freedom”, then she daid that positive COVID case numbers don’t matter, only hospitalisation and ICUs matter now she is preparing that a lot of people could die per day because of COVID like they are dying of heart disease.
    That is what ‘Living with COVID’ looks like. Anastasia P was severely criticised for scare mongering for saying that if COVID is allowed into QLD children could het it. But no peep from this worthless media about Gladys for saying such things.

  15. As the ACT chief minister said, this is equivalent to one day’s vaccinations.

    Morrison is making a big PR event of the 500,000 vaccines arriving today under the swap deal with Singapore that he announced with great fanfare last week.

    COVID live updates: Half a million Pfizer COVID vaccine doses arrive in Australia from Singapore in swap deal (ABC)

    ABC list what each state gets:

    So how many of the Pfizer vaccine doses is your state going to get?

    The Prime Minister says they will be shared between the states and territories on a per capita basis. This is what that looks like:

    New South Wales 159,236
    Victoria 131,149
    Queensland 99,745
    Western Australia 51,294
    South Australia 34,934
    Tasmania 10,675
    ACT 8,344
    NT 4,622

  16. The difference between Victoria’s long Alpha lockdown and now are three things.

    Exhaustion
    Support Payments
    Transmission rate of the virus.

  17. Victoria,
    The NZ system of collecting Covid positive people from their homes and putting them in secure quarantine could be an answer. Unpopular, but effective.

  18. “Oh, well, my child has died, but at least I don’t have to home school them,” said no parent ever.

    Although you’d think that was the attitude, given some of the media….

  19. Some sort of electronic tracing seems like a sensible idea IMHO, and as per Guytaur’s tweet, probably something that should have been done ages ago. As good a job as our human tracers have generally done, an automatic alert if somewhere you’ve checked into becomes an exposure site seems like common sense.

  20. TPOF @ #71 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 9:12 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 3, 2021 at 9:06 am
    And Labor should be breathtakingly audacious too, if that’s what it takes to win the election. Highlight people in their electorates who have died from COVID-19, family permission granted, and get photos of them and testimonials from their family members describing what lovely people they were, and then just simply say that they would probably be alive today if Scott Morrison hadn’t screwed up the response to the pandemic. Brutal, but effective.

    _______________________________

    Sounds ugly, but we know from what the Libs did re Pink Batts that is exactly what they would do too.

    All the ‘pensioners’ that Tony Abbott and the Liberals dredged up, probably from local Liberal Party branches across the country, to proclaim how they would freeze to death in their homes and end up eating dog food if the ‘Carbon Tax’ went ahead, was in my mind.

  21. Labor does need some brutally honest advertising to counter the propaganda effort from the right. Including the vested interests of business. Media are at the end of the day a business.

    This is an area where the for profit motive is getting in the way of the public good.

    For any that doubt this. Look at the people thinking horse treatments are the way to go.


  22. Confessionssays:
    Friday, September 3, 2021 at 7:19 am
    I think when Gladys realised that her “methods of control” weren’t working, like any politician, she’s rationalising the situation. “We’re the best, and if we couldn’t do it, no one can.”

    Spot on lizzie.

    And now that NSW isn’t the gold standard many proclaimed it to be, the coalition and their media acolytes are targetting states like WA, whose stellar efforts at quashing the virus have long sailed under radar.

    Chris Ulhmann is at front of the pack. He is criticising WA and QLD premiers everyday ( I mean everyday and not mincing words) for not allowing COVID into their states (the funny thing is he never criticises SA and TAS) thereby making Gladys look bad. Horrible man, horrible, horrible man.

  23. Still seeing a November election. All arguments for a 2022 election are predicated on either the Reff falling below one, or somehow the hospital system is able to manage, despite the exponential rise in cases.

    It is already struggling in NSW.

  24. Zoomster – again, very few children in Australia have even got particularly sick from Covid, and only one under 19 has died, a 15 yo who also had meningitis. The risks for children remains quite low (and can mostly be managed in school settings), whereas the risks for mental health and disadvantaged kids falling behind are quite significant.

  25. Hugoaugogo @ #88 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 9:23 am

    Zoomster – again, very few children in Australia have even got particularly sick from Covid, and only one under 19 has died, a 15 yo who also had meningitis. The risks for children remains quite low (and can mostly be managed in school settings), whereas the risks for mental health and disadvantaged kids falling behind are quite significant.

    Are you a parent? Have you ever had a child who was really sick? You wouldn’t wish it on anyone. You certainly wouldn’t say, oh well, they’re not dead from this disease, so that’s okay then.

  26. Hugo

    Do you mind not kindly telling me what goes on in school settings? It’s not something I need mansplained to me.

    My point was to do with the media attitudes – that Anna P is outrageous for suggesting that children are vulnerable (and, as the largest pool of the unvaccinated under any of the scenarios examined, they are; have a quick glance of what’s happening in the US, for example), and that home schooling (which, really, very few* parents are actually doing) is the worst imposition on anyone since the dawn of time.

    *again, don’t @ me for this – I know SOME parents are.

  27. TPOF @ #70 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 9:12 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 3, 2021 at 9:06 am
    And Labor should be breathtakingly audacious too, if that’s what it takes to win the election. Highlight people in their electorates who have died from COVID-19, family permission granted, and get photos of them and testimonials from their family members describing what lovely people they were, and then just simply say that they would probably be alive today if Scott Morrison hadn’t screwed up the response to the pandemic. Brutal, but effective.

    _______________________________

    Sounds ugly, but we know from what the Libs did re Pink Batts that is exactly what they would do too.

    Preferable to looking back at all this and saying…I wonder why Labor didn’t etc…etc.. Labor could have …etc…etc….If only Labor had..etc…..etc….

  28. @thetopjob tweets

    If you’re a journalist outraged at lockdowns wait until you hear about the dumbshit who didn’t buy enough vaccines in the middle of a global pandemic

  29. And if, literally, in your face ads are successful (ugh, Craig Kelly, and isn’t it bloody convenient for Clive Palmer to be off our screens since he was denigrated by the media, especially in Queensland and WA?), then Labor should do them as well.

    ‘Where do ya get it!?! A free set of steak knives with every vote for Labor!’ 😉


  30. Katherine Murphy and Paul Karp report that the Morrison government has moved to keep national cabinet deliberations secret by introducing new legislation intended to blunt the impact of a recent tribunal decision that would have allowed access to key documents. Rea Patrick has said, “Scott Morrison is clearly a sore loser, but more importantly he’s still trying to stifle public scrutiny of national cabinet decision making as well as many other dealings of federal, state and territory governments”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/02/a-sore-loser-scott-morrison-attacked-over-move-to-keep-national-cabinet-deliberations-secret

    BB
    (Face Palm) . Over to you. Your favourite topic “Morrison and secrecy”. Nobody can put better than you. 🙂

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