Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Labor maintains its strong lead in the latest Roy Morgan federal poll, while EMRS finds the state Liberals still well on top in Tasmania.

Roy Morgan published its regular fortnightly (for so it now seems) federal voting intention poll on Wednesday, which recorded an incremental improvement for Labor on their already strong previous result. Labor was credited with a lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54-46 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (steady), Labor 38.5% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

Two-party state breakdowns are included as usual, showing Labor leading in New South Wales with 53% (a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election, and a gain of one point since the previous poll), in Victoria with 59.5% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of half a point), in Western Australia with 51% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of three-and-a-half points), in South Australia with 57.5% (a swing of about 9%, and a gain of three points) and in Tasmania with 63.5% (a swing of about 7.5%, and a gain of six-and-a-half points. The Coalition’s only lead is in Queensland with 53.5%, a gain of 1.5% since the previous poll but a swing to Labor of around 5% compared with 2019.

The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2735. Assuming this was divided between the states in proportion to population, sub-samples would have ranged from nearly 900 in New South Wales to less than 100 in Tasmania.

Speaking of Tasmania, the first EMRS poll of voting intention in that state since the May election was published yesterday, although it does not capture the impact of the latest developments in the David O’Byrne saga, having been conducted from August 7 to 9. The result is almost identical to that of the election, with the Liberals on 49% (48.7% at the election), Labor on 28% (28.2%) and the Greens on 13% (12.4%). Newly restored Labor leader Rebecca White trails Peter Gutwein 59-29 as preferred premier, compared with 61-26 in the pre-election poll in February. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,848 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. @sproket

    Now who would like to treat the upcoming election as a referendum on the GladMo plan?
    ___________________________________-

    I think that is exactly it, it all depends on if the vibe for Slomo is people value freedums more than health and those on that side of the fence always put individual freedums first, it been that way since the start.

    How the voters feel is another question.

  2. jt1983 @ #1638 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 6:15 pm

    @P1 – being in caretaker would be a remarkable excuse for Morrison avoiding Glasgow.

    Morrison was unlikely to go in person anyway, unless he can first convince the Nationals to support net zero. But someone from Australia will have to face the music – and whoever does will make us look like a nation of greedy and ignorant fools.

    Which, it has to be said, is probably a reasonably accurate assessment 🙁

  3. Hugo

    “Of course, if it affects someone close to them, that’s another story”

    It will. Thousands of cases per day and all the knock on effects on the health care system will soon make it personal. Plus the realisation that your kid might be the one that gets it.

  4. Morrison was unlikely to go in person anyway, unless he can first convince the Nationals to support net zero. But someone from Australia will have to face the music – and whoever does will make us look like a nation of greedy and ignorant fools.

    Which, it has to be said, is probably a reasonably accurate assessment
    ____________________________

    What better opportunity to send Barnyard Joyce – Dep PM for almost authority, already and ignorant fool so no damage just be brushed off as personal character, and unlikley to make a contribution is exposed to enough of the local brew.

  5. Let me try put it another way.

    What I do not like is that Morrison is trying to convince people that we can settle the discussion (of what reopening means, exactly) ahead of time. We can’t in full detail, and trying to do so will only become a problem as the situation develops over time, as new information comes in and decisions become necessary and open to discussion, if people enter those discussions with unjustified preconceptions and assumptions.

    That there is a plan (or an outline of one) is fine. I agree that it is The Only Plan. That there is disagreement over exact targets and timing and whatnot is fine. That the plan is being framed as complete and inviolable is not.

    Anyway, I’ve said this a few different ways now, and feel like I’m carrying on, so I’ll stop :P.

  6. Dr Fumbles,

    a freedom vs isolationist campaign would be ScoMo’s ideal, but only at a point where everyone who wants to be vaccinated can. By mid-Nov we are projected to barely hit this 70% of adults, will be in the midst of >12 yr olds, and might well have guidance on vaccinating children.

    also, let us see where we are in NSW by then. The wrist-slashing doomsdayers might see us at 10,000 cases and 20+ deaths a day, we might peak in the 2000s and be on a downward trajectory. Am guessing this will be quite relevant

    as you have detailed it, yes its forseeable for ScoMo, with things somewhat in hand on the infection side + a good vaccination outcome + States resisting + sentiment moving towards getting lives back, to call an opportunistic election with a mandate to yell at the States further and open up international travel.

    but if those conditions persist, i dont know if states would pose a huge resistance barrier to loosening up anyway? in which case, putting as much distance between now and an election, with max chance for people to enjoy life again and an economic bounceback, seems a far more likely bet?

  7. Oh well, the Kiwis completed a hat-trick in Bledisloe, 38-21. Oz had their chances but the All Blacks ball-handling was topnotch, particularly offloads, as was their defence. One of the Barrett brothers (Jordie) got red-carded but even one down for twenty minutes (new rule), the Wallabies couldn’t crack it. Looking forward to next Sunday’s match against the Springboks, the World Cup holders, at Brisbane.

    https://www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/bledisloe-cup/bledisloe-cup-2021-all-blacks-vs-wallabies-jordie-barrett-red-carded-report-reaction-highlights/news-story/1d99574bf359d3bf7776cd61e2b1347c

  8. Displayname

    I’m comforted by the realisation that the meaningless 70% target will be dusted by history like so many other Scomo targets – remember the targets set for the app?

  9. @Cud

    It would make whatever speech the Australians give worth watching for cringe value alone, even better if he was decked out in a swag hat with corks

  10. Cud Chewer

    the meaningless 70% target will be dusted by history like so many other Scomo target

    He’ll send it out to look for his ‘Horizons’.

  11. The reporting, parroting ScottyFromMarketing, of the UK Pfizer doses is framed as ‘extra’, ‘additional’, and worst case ‘doses of hope’. The fine print refers to swaps, but was does this mean?

    A schoolyard analogy I saw gets to the point well.

    ‘If I give you my sandwich at little lunch, and then you give me your sandwich at lunchtime – there is no extra sandwich. No matter how much you hope there is.’

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-05/pfizer-shipment-from-uk-vaccine-swap/100435676

  12. DN

    “That there is a plan (or an outline of one) is fine. I agree that it is The Only Plan. That there is disagreement over exact targets and timing and whatnot is fine. That the plan is being framed as complete and inviolable is not.”

    honestly i think we can agree on this. Its all a matter of perspective/interpretation beyond a certain point… inviolability to one person is simply putting down a marker to show some directional aspiration to another. Conditions on the ground will matter a lot. Who is vaccine eligible will matter a lot. Heck in 2-3 months we might be knee-deep in the lamda variant. It is literally impossible to be absolute about anything in November or so.

    People are just positioning themselves as ‘owning’ real estate… it has an intended machiavellian political purpose, of course. Not the first or last time that ever happens and its not unique to one side of the political divide either

  13. @Expat Follower

    It would be a bit of a dilemma and there is risk on both sides, I do think a later election e.g. March is more likely if everything aligns and the plan works as it means raising the ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner.

    However, after all is done he could of the way of Churchill after WW2 with the time for change and rebuild the place after the struggles. It depends how tired we become of seeing/hearing the empty promise of Slomo.

    Its all academic anyway looking for rational reasons for elections – it will be when the Divine Potter gives a sign that he approves.

  14. Re Dr Fumbles at 6.14 pm

    Comment by RH Wombat at 6.09 indicates health crisis in NSW will exclude Nov election. This is reinforced by closed borders (to NSW/ACT) in Tas (Bass), SA (Boothby), WA (Swan and Pearce) and Qld (several prospects), as well as Vic, through to Nov or Dec at earliest. Gladys has diminished ProMo’s options substantially re election timing, but not necessarily re getting to an election. The scale of the health crisis in late Oct and Nov might give ProMo a pretext to cancel parliamentary sittings then, depriving Dutton of the chance for a leadership spill before an election in late Feb or early March.

  15. By the way. The plan has always been The Only Plan from the moment we had working vaccines. What other plan is there?

    I think you’ll find it has been discovered (invented? authored?) and rediscovered (because it doesn’t take much to discover it) all over, including here on PB, long before it became The National Plan.

    The only cleverness of Morrison’s that I will concede, and that isn’t particularly harmful (except maybe to Labor), is that he took the initiative to sneak in his claim on it :P.

    People are just positioning themselves as ‘owning’ real estate… it has an intended machiavellian political purpose, of course

    That part, and any political advantage from getting in first (I think he already had some of that advantage as PM, in any case) is not what I’m bothered by.

  16. @Yabba

    Dont know about that, imagine forcing tradies to give up their v8 utes for that, where will the dog go??

    On the plus side i like the 2CV window arrangements

  17. The scale of the health crisis in late Oct and Nov might give ProMo a pretext to cancel parliamentary sittings then, depriving Dutton of the chance for a leadership spill before an election in late Feb or early March.

    Don’t the new rules make it all but impossible for a sitting Liberal PM to be knifed? A challenger would need 2/3 of the partyroom to agree to a spill, and I can’t see that happening to Morrison.

  18. Updated vaccine rollout stats:

    NSW

    40.8% fully vaccinated; 73.6% first dose

    State target: 70%

    National

    38.2% fully vaccinated; 62.8% first dose

    National target: 70%

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.

    The increased rates of vaccination probably stem from the threat that if you don’t get jabbed, you could be excluded from work & play. Also, given the rate in NSW, and to a far lesser extent, Victoria, people seem to be taking Delta more seriously. But whatever the reasons, it’s good to see.

  19. @DisplayName

    By the way. The plan has always been The Only Plan from the moment we had working vaccines. What other plan is there?
    _______________________________
    The problem with ‘the plan’ is it was developed with a set of assumptions that no longer represent reality and is being held up as the absolute prosperity gospel.

    When you follow plans that no longer reflect reality you come into all sorts of hurt A proper plan has to be flexible enough to adapt and evolve according to circumstances.

    History is full of examples of excellent plans that derailed by reality

  20. @Confessions says:

    Don’t the new rules make it all but impossible for a sitting Liberal PM to be knifed? A challenger would need 2/3 of the partyroom to agree to a spill, and I can’t see that happening to Morrison.
    ________________________________

    Ahh but do you need half the members to approve a change of rules??

    Stupid leadership rules have taken some of the sport out of federal politics all around.

  21. rhwombat: “Has anyone seen Expat Wormtongue (or Grimaaugogo) on the same page as Meher Baba? Similar voice, similar condescending pretense of reasonableness in defence of “diversity” while covering for the selfish arseholes who have wrecked the joint over the last 12 months.”

    These posters have nothing to do with me. I’m increasingly a lurker these days: the fervour of the Labor partisanship on here lately has made me feel disinclined to engage much: what’s the point of trying to participate in a debate in which one is going to get howled down most of the time?

    Re the discussion this evening. It seems to me that most posters on here are at risk underestimating three factors:
    1 ) the political cunning of ScoMo;
    2) the lingering unpleasant memories in the minds of many voters of Labor’s attack on wealth accumulation in the last election (and don’t imagine that ScoMo isn’t going to bring it up during the election campaign at every conceivable opportunity); and
    3) that arguments that go down very well with the demographic to which I belong and which I suspect is represented very strongly on PB (tertiary-educated, currently employed/retired from work in the public sector or a publicly-funded institution) might not play the same way among the predominantly privately- or self-employed voters of the marginals who decide elections.

  22. Player One @ #1608 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 3:49 pm

    Who were the Labor partisans here who insisted that no action on coal was needed because the coal market was already in decline?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-09-05/resurgent-coal-market-hits-new-high/100431418

    Soaring demand for electricity in China and India has put a rocket under the coal market with prices for the fossil fuel hitting a record high despite efforts to de-carbonise the global economy.

    If you want to see genuine action on climate change, the only way to guarantee it is to vote (1) independents or minor parties. Then by all means give your subsequent preference to whichever “party of government” you prefer.

    Yes, that will really make an impact in India and China.

  23. Stupid leadership rules have taken some of the sport out of federal politics all around.

    Yeah, the killing season no longer applies.

  24. Heard on the news, something about Gladys supposedly doing modelling which might be released in a week or so. Hands up anyone else who thinks this is less about good governance and more about controlling the messaging?

  25. Another 1% slip in the polls in the next two weeks could/will determine pre- election scenarios.
    For both major parties and their sidekicks (of sorts).
    Post election scenarios will still be enmeshed in the ever changing web of Covid.
    There is very little upside for anyone at this point in history.

  26. fess

    ‘Don’t the new rules make it all but impossible for a sitting Liberal PM to be knifed? ‘

    Rules can be unmade.

    If necessary: new challenger calls a motion of no confidence in the House, GG asks who can form a government, new challenger says support me or we’re going to an election.

  27. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1681 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 7:02 pm

    Player One @ #1608 Sunday, September 5th, 2021 – 3:49 pm

    Who were the Labor partisans here who insisted that no action on coal was needed because the coal market was already in decline?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-09-05/resurgent-coal-market-hits-new-high/100431418

    Soaring demand for electricity in China and India has put a rocket under the coal market with prices for the fossil fuel hitting a record high despite efforts to de-carbonise the global economy.

    If you want to see genuine action on climate change, the only way to guarantee it is to vote (1) independents or minor parties. Then by all means give your subsequent preference to whichever “party of government” you prefer.

    Yes, that will really make an impact in India and China.

    P1 has never understood demand, despite being the smartest poster on PB

  28. Zoomster – I think you have hit the nail on the head there. There seems to be some speculation on here (or at least implication) that SloMo is some sort of political genius, whereas in truth, he kinda got lucky in 2019, running against an unpopular Opposition Leader with a lot of policy weight in the saddle bags, and so he was given the benefit of the doubt, but still only gained an extraordinarily narrow margin. In truth, Morrison is nothing more than venal poilitician, whose over-riding political instinct is to win. He will therefore call the election for when he thinks he has the best hope of winning, and notwithstanding the attractiveness of a late November poll, an awful lot would need to line up from here for that to be possible.

    Let’s not forget that several polls have the current polling score at 54-46 to Labor (and also that the ALP primary vote is about 5 points higher than in 2019). Sydney and Melbourne will almost certainly remain in lockdown well into October, and quite possibly beyond that, notwithstanding the fear of many here that Gladys will suddenly declare Freedom Day and remove all restrictions (I think her damp squib of “picnics” from next week show that she actually remains pretty cautious, despite the rhetoric). So it’s very hard to see the government’s polling position improving to any meaningful degree in the next six weeks, and so it would be extremely brave of him to call an election that far behind, and one thing we can say about SloMo is that he’s not brave. Let’s not forget that last time we waited until the bitter end.

    So early March still seems the most likely. Call the election on Australia Day to start with some feel-good nationalism. It’s more likely than not, IMO, that Covid cases will be in a comparative lull by January, with lockdowns doing their job, vaccination rates high, and summer itself putting a dampener on case numbers. And if they do remain as high as they are now, or higher, people will be resigned to it, and want to move on, and I’m not so sure that they will end up being the election issue that they maybe should be, and that many on here think they should be.

    I still think Morrison would be the underdog in that election, but I think he’d be much better placed in March than he would be in November.

  29. What a joke given Murdoch’s record at Fox predicated on his manic desire to have influence at the White House. Jerry, please give him another viagra but don’t let him choke on it:

    [‘Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News is demanding an external inquiry be conducted into two episodes of ABC’s Four Corners that focused on the American cable TV network’s coverage of former US president Donald Trump and its role in the 2020 general election.

    The 27-page formal complaint was sent to the ABC’s chair Ita Buttrose and ABC managing director David Anderson on Friday, and claims the programs were an attack on Fox News and asks for a response and a correction to concerns about the two episodes within 14 days. The letter according to people familiar with its contents, alleges the ABC has breached its code of practice and the federal government’s standards for the national broadcasters.’]

    I blame Rupert’s old man, old Keith, for the way his son’s turned out; it certainly wasn’t his mother’s fault, who was philanthropic.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/murdoch-s-fox-news-demands-external-inquiry-into-abc-program-20210905-p58owm.html

  30. I think the sooner the leadership rules are disposed of the better. Best thing for a leader is to be a bit paranoid about their colleagues, keeps them on their toes and stops the messiah complex.

    Also those closest around are best to judge who is electable as it is in their own self interest, a bad choice will effect them the most.

    Wouldn’t like to be in a marginal seat with a hopeless leader, megalomaniac or someone with personality issues making them impossible to work with and heading for an inevitable hiding and then having to poll the members of the party, commission focus groups, wait for the full moon and roll a 6 or a 9 before starting.

  31. Bodgie

    Its far too rambling and I really can’t make out what his critical parameters are.

    The only way we get to a few tens of cases per day by Xmas is if we continue to get vaccinated at the current rate – and go way beyond Scomo’s “targets” and at the same time we maintain most of the current restrictions all the way to Xmas. I’m not sure what this guy is anticipating, but he goes off into a rant about freedom etc and that’s where I tuned out.

  32. I do not think Scott Morrison is some kind of political strategic genius. He’s a slimy ad-man, which does have overlapping skills. He is cunning, but he’s not a leader. That to me suggests he will do what best suits him from that perspective, not the careful and considered approach some are arguing here.

    It’s an excuse – much like with Trump and Johnson – the centre-left and left cannot accept they lost to such a base and medicore man and try to invest them with mythical qualities that justify the shortcomings of the campaigns they supported.

    Morrison and his Government are fundamentally LAZY. They don’t do anything proactively, they are remarkably reactive for a government, apparently everything is some form of a surprise to them.

  33. Fumbles

    “Also those closest around are best to judge who is electable as it is in their own self interest, a bad choice will effect them the most.”

    Unless of course those people behave irrationally and seek to pursue their own personal gain, power or ideology, rather than electability or what’s best for the country.

    Nah.. that would never happen, right?

  34. zoom:

    Rules can be unmade, but I think it’s very unlikely to happen this time.

    For a start, Morrison enjoys strong support in the partyroom and then there’s the circus a leadership change would engender that MPs would be keen to want to avoid.

  35. Wayne:

    Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7:15 pm

    [‘Is there a newspoll tonight if so our great LNP will be back in the lead 51/49’]

    No dear – two weeks hence, but then you’d know that. Sorry to sound a bit off but I’m a bit off tonight after those no-good Kiwis thrashed the Wallabies.

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