The latest Newspoll from The Australian finds Labor retaining its 53-47 two-party lead from three weeks ago, with both major parties steady on 39% of the primary vote, the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. Scott Morrison has fallen into net negative approval for the first time since March last year, being down four points on approval to 47% and up the same amount on disapproval to 49%. Anthony Albanese is steady on both approval and disapproval at 38% and 46% respectively, and has narrowed Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister from 51-33 to 49-36.
Also included are ratings for Scott Morrison’s handling of coronavirus in general, on which his good rating is down four points since last time to 48% and his poor rating is up four to 49%, and of the vaccine rollout in particular, on which he is down two to 38% and up two to 59%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.
Mike,
I liked it because the poster was unfamiliar to me.
It was also very well researched.
Z would have been impressed!
I had hear that it was going to be a Dominello/Keane duumvirate.
Confessions etc
My question wasn’t really about rolling Gladys. Rather it was about whether Scomo is capable of putting pressure on Gladys to get her to tighten the lockdown.
In a classic display of blokes doing merit-based promotions, only one AFL women’s team has a female coach.
Go Bec Goddard of the mighty Hawks!
If its Matt Kean then there’s some hope of more evidence driven, sensible response and tighter restrictions. So, can it happen and can it be done this week?
CC,
Getting her sacked is the ultimate pressure, comrade.
Its a sad state of affairs when a Military person is forced playing partisan politics and doing propaganda for Morrison and his cronies , on the vaccine rollout
Boerwar
The AFLW is still in its early years so that explains the lack of women coaches but that should change as players retire and move into coaching.
Given the degree to which the senior ministers have backed-in Gladys, there’s basically NO chance she’s going anywhere, unless she goes voluntarily.
Muse on that, then determine how much you’d like to invest on the liklihood of this happening.
Ah, I remember, children don’t catch/spread covid so open up the schools. Do they ????????
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-is-a-disease-of-the-unvaccinated-44-children-get-virus-in-a-day-20210812-p58i29.html
Michelle Landry ( I think) quizzed on 7.30 about recent legislation re Australians who live abroad wanting depart… her reason .. to stop Australians going in & out & adding to the queue, when asked how many are doing that… answer I’ll have to get back to you on that…. talk about farking useless
Berejiklian isn’t going anywhere. Yes, she’s stuffed up but her numbers are fine. It’s primarily the Victorians on this site who give the impression that she’s on the outer but polling doesn’t support their view. It’s a case of wishful thinking.
Sceptic @ #2189 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 7:49 pm
Talk about a Talking Point that enables the Coalition government to control the movement of citizens.
These are the same numbers that show Albo and Labor winning the next Election.
Morrison needs a scapegoat and I reckon Gladys is looking to be the one.
Mavis at 7:53 pm
If that is the case then Bon Appétit NSW..
Anyway, put-downs like “echo chamber” are misconceived. (In this case at least, not like I haven’t said similar on other occasions :P).
Whether or not you agree that it’s the right strategy, the logic behind locking down early and hard is not difficult to construct, nor difficult to relate to a (admittedly simplistic) model of the virus. Nor is it hard to compare outcomes between that strategy and what NSW is doing now or what Victoria did last year.
It’s entirely possible for people to come independently to the same conclusion. In this case it’s not surprising that there is convergent thinking. Should we accuse school children (or anyone, really) who answers 4 when given 2 + 2 of being part of a “hive mind” or having copied each other? Or (assuming early, hard lockdowns are a mistake) answers 6 when asked what is 3 to the power of 2? Without evidence? Merely on the basis that their answer disagrees with ours? Without showing any working?
Well I showed my working and others didn’t answer it with their own (and still haven’t). Point out the flaws if you can. Otherwise why should I cop such labels?
* A common mistake is to parse/guess exponents as multiplication.
Confessions @ #2177 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 7:38 pm
They were 1a and 1b for the most part. Remember that?
jt1983 @ #2187 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 7:47 pm
All I hope is that she, and the rest of them, go at the next NSW State election.
Worth reposting…
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/singapore-in-travel-lane-talks-as-it-nears-covid-resilient-future-20210806-p58gmt.html
We could learn a lot from Singapore’s response. Singapore has currently fully vaccinated 66 percent of its entire population and is on track to have vaccinated 80 percent of its entire population (not ‘eligible adults’) by early September. They could easily have effective herd immunity by early next year. (Effective means some element of public health response on top of vaccination)
Meanwhile Singapore’s cases continue to fall. 54 last time I looked.
C@tmomma @ #2667 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 7:57 pm
Yeah. There are always phases until it becomes a race!
C@t
What I’m simply hoping for is for Morrison to put enough pressure on Gladys right now so that she gets serious about the lockdown. This is based on the observation that Gladys is screwing Scomo’s re-election right now and I’m pretty sure Scomo knows this.
Morrison is in a weird spot – he knows Glady’s is really hurting him – but equally, he doesn’t want his fingerprints on the NSW response…
Cud Chewer @ #2199 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 8:02 pm
I’m not seeing it. Morrison started applying public pressure for a ‘strong lockdown’ last week but ever since, all I’ve heard at the daily COVID briefing is Gladys and Hazzard digging their heels in defending their scattergun approach.
C@t
But is there behind the scenes pressure? You know Scomo is feeling threatened. He’ll be doing something…
“Its a sad state of affairs when a Military person is forced playing partisan politics and doing propaganda for Morrison and his cronies , on the vaccine rollout”
Unfortunately, it doesn’t take much convincing for the military, or even the AFP, to play partisan politics. They are always going to come down on the authoritarian side. Always.
Who is the stronger, both in terms of their polling and control of their government?
Morrison or Berejiklian?
I think Morrison has the bigger problem and he won’t be forcing Gladys to do anything she doesn’t want to.
It has been looking like the NSW and Commonwealth Governments are going to try and blame each other.
Mavis,
Please point us to this mysterious polling that has Berejiklian in such a strong position. As far as I know, there hasn’t been a NSW specific poll in months. I’m sure the boss can clarify.
Sceptic
“Michelle Landry ( I think) quizzed on 7.30 about resent legislation re Australians who live abroad wanting depart… her reason ..”
Karen Andrews, not Michelle Landry. Same shit, different smell.
I watched 7:30. I thought it was sad that this Lt-Gen Frewen guy is wheeled out, because Scotty and Hunt are too cowardly to front up.
Tom,
The Feds go to an Election before the NSW Government.
So, who has the most urgent need here?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/12/anger-as-slow-vaccine-rollout-leaves-western-nsw-aboriginal-communities-exposed-to-covid?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
jt1983 at 8:04 pm
As PM for Sydney he would be very worried that the peasantry will remember Gladys was doing exactly what Scotty said many times was the way to go and praised her for it.
Greensborough Growler @ #2680 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 8:19 pm
It’s not their need but their capacity that will be the determining factor
The government has introduced a number of electoral bills into parliament today:
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results?drt=2&drv=7&drvH=7&pnu=46&pnuH=46&f=02%2f07%2f2019&to=12%2f08%2f2021&ps=10&ito=1&q=electoral&bs=1&pbh=1&bhor=1&pmb=1&g=1&st=5
including:
Requiring multiple voters to declaration vote.
Tightening the use of party names by other parties.
Minimum party membership tripled to 1,500.
ajm,
I doubt that is how Morrison perceives the situation.
If he can blame shift to a failed Leader then Bob’s your uncle and Rover’s the dog.
So here’s a question for the hard-liners: what exactly would you have the NSW government do right now? I’ve heard about the “ring of steel” suggestion, curfews, and masks outdoors all the time, but the evidence on the usefulness of any these is mixed at best, and therefore unlikely to be a major game changer.
The main problem with the current outbreak is that it’s taken hold among poorer communities, who rely on insecure work and families to get by. The nation relies on people like these to keep food in supermarkets and for other essential services, so we can’t just lock them in their homes. So do we do beyond what has already been done?
I get that many argue that the government should have locked down sooner, or harder, but that is in essence a retrospect argument, one that doesn’t really help us now. Right now we have pretty tight limits in place, and by and large these are doing what they are supposed to do, to level out the case numbers, and, eventually, bring them down again, which seems to be what is happening.
But a lot of the rhetoric on here has been plain silly. It’s true that the NSW government has pursued a more “hands off” approach than some other states, but it’s still sticking to the overall strategy of suppression and elimination. The difference between, say, Berejiklian and Andrews, is really one of degree rather than fundamental strategy. There’s no government in Australia trying to emulate the “let it rip” approach of those in Texas or Florida, despite some of the hyperbolic claims by some on here.
You can get a sense of Morrison’s authority over the state governments from reading Savva’s piece in the SMH. TL:DR he has none – even Perrottet doesn’t respect him.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-scott-morrison-a-cranky-man-in-need-of-a-plan-20210811-p58hpr.html
Morrison is screaming out whatever he thinks will help him today. He’s never been much of a long term thinker is Scotty.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/08/08/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-8/comment-page-54/#comment-3677547
The NSW Government is very keep to pass the buck. If they dump it on the Commonwealth Coalition, causing them to loose the upcoming election, they may get a boost from being of a different political stripe to the Commonwealth government in 2023.
Here’s a view that everyone outside of NSW might agree.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1425732741530673156
Simon
I knew Scotty was utterly shameless but FMD Mr Take Credit For Other People’s Work comes out with…
I suppose he wants everyone else to adopt that motto to make it easier for him to take all the credit.
We could stop trains at city limits
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-12/hunter-covid-source/100373210
There’s no government in Australia trying to emulate the “let it rip” approach of those in Texas or Florida, despite some of the hyperbolic claims by some on here.
Which is exactly what I said, if by this comment you were referring to me. 😐
Hugo
“The main problem with the current outbreak is that it’s taken hold among poorer communities”
Because Gladys, even knowing well that the Delta strain was highly infectious, failed to lock down early.
Still defending the indefensible, aren’t you?
The purpose of lockdowns is to give the tracers time to catch up an currently those in NSW have almost lost control.
Cud Chewer at 8:35 pm
Hugo following in Scrott’s footsteps. Scrott tried to blame the poor people of the 3rd World re GHG emissions and Hugo reckons it’s all those ‘povo’ people re covid.
Well, my Glad Wrap quip made it out to Twitter pdq:
jennifer philp
@jennifer_philp
·
7h
So instead of a Ring of Steel, Sydney got Gladwrapped. Not as airtight as advertised, unfortunately.
😀
I admit, it was kind of easy to come up with and someone else may have done so too.
I suppose that Matt Canavan has had the regular training for LNP members – circular breathing, how to talk under wet cement, how to talk over others in a group discussion…
Hugoaugogo,
You do go on 🙂
But your latest post is worthy of a response. It has been pointed out multiple times that the Reff in the LGA’s of concern is currently lower than the Reff in the rest of NSW. What’s more, the Reff for the rest of NSW is increasing! See https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html
So we know that increased restrictions in these areas are helping. They need to be extended to areas that are seeding . As we have lost the means to effectively contact trace, we have large numbers of unlinked cases. Hence the need for a Statewide circuit breaker. Even Broken Hill 😉
But the Reff in the LGA’s of concern, while lower, is above 1 and plateaued. So we should increase restrictions and/or we need to optimise compliance. Negative reinforcement is pretty extreme with the Army called in now. Why not institute the pay to isolate scheme that Victoria has? It covers casualised and cash in hand workers better than the Federal support payments. While the evidence is mixed on curfews, I say adopt the precautionary principle and bring them in. More importantly, tighten reasons for leaving the area and restrict exercise to 1 hour a day.
Edit: know not now
Hugo
Serious fines, for one. And a much tighter list of ‘essential services’ – the present one is pretty vague, as are the restrictions (the police have complained about this, saying that there are so many loopholes that almost any activity can be justified, meaning that it’s difficult for them to enforce compliance). And shutting down places such as Bunnings – the fewer excuses people have to leave home, the likely it is that they’ll stay there.
If stores are open, people will assume that it’s safe to go shopping.