Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Labor maintains its solid two-party lead in Newspoll as Scott Morrison slides into net negative personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll from The Australian finds Labor retaining its 53-47 two-party lead from three weeks ago, with both major parties steady on 39% of the primary vote, the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. Scott Morrison has fallen into net negative approval for the first time since March last year, being down four points on approval to 47% and up the same amount on disapproval to 49%. Anthony Albanese is steady on both approval and disapproval at 38% and 46% respectively, and has narrowed Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister from 51-33 to 49-36.

Also included are ratings for Scott Morrison’s handling of coronavirus in general, on which his good rating is down four points since last time to 48% and his poor rating is up four to 49%, and of the vaccine rollout in particular, on which he is down two to 38% and up two to 59%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,783 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/08/08/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-8/comment-page-54/#comment-3677553

    A ring of steel would be reducing spread out of Sydney, by minimising travel to/from Sydney, to the regions. It is actually easier in Sydney than Melbourne as Sydney has a fraction of the road access points Melbourne does.

    Covering the whole of Sydney with the same restrictions would catch outbreaks spreading out of the worst areas and keep overall numbers down.

    Masks outside makes enforcement of masks in crowded areas easier by increasing mask wearing outside.

    The NSW Government`s refusal to learn from other states, continued general evasiveness are problematic. Victorian learned quickly in the second wave, once we locked down. Andrews also stayed for all the questions at press conferences, through all the hostility, and had a much lower rate of question donging than the NSW Government.

  4. I also heard earlier that Kerry Chant wanted 5 km distance limits, but Hazard insisted on 10.

    That was also successfully tried and proven in Melbourne, and ignored in NSW.

  5. Cud Chewer @ #2231 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 8:43 pm

    I also heard earlier that Kerry Chant wanted 5 km distance limits, but Hazard insisted on 10.

    That was also successfully tried and proven in Melbourne, and ignored in NSW.

    The problem with Hazzard as Health Minister is that he is taking a blended approach, mixing his Liberal business instincts with the Health advice to come up with his position and because he is the Health Minister and Gladys is similarly-inclined, we have gotten what we have.

  7. We often see pictures of crowded Sydney beaches and parks, taken through telephoto lenses, and decry how restrictions are being flouted.

    Here’s a suburban park on the North Shore around 3:00 PM this afternoon, with typical numbers for a sunny weekday, no zooming in:

    The numbers aren’t excessive. Not many are wearing masks but they’re not required outdoors. Most are socially distancing

    P.S. the old TCN-9 TV tower in the background, being dismantled.

  9. ‘Hugoaugogo says:
    Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:28 pm

    So here’s a question for the hard-liners: what exactly would you have the NSW government do right now?’
    __________________________________
    Oh, please know that it should do the common sense thing. It should avoid echo chambers like the plague. It should avoid group think. It should avoid the knee jerk thing. It should avoid talking about what other states are doing. It should point out that it has carried a greater burden than other states. It should point out that its lockdown is the toughest lockdown in Australia. It should out that it has the toughest lockdown in the world. It should avoid mandating masks. It should demand Pfizer vaccines from other states. It should refuse to let its Pfizer share go to other states. It should rush Pfizer to one place after another AFTER that place has reached perilous infection levels. It should pretend that 6 million shots will somehow allow some degree of freedom without mass deaths. It should stick publicly to a target date of 28 August when inside intel tells it that October is the earliest. It should lay off the blame to people who will not follow the rules. It should lay off the blame to people who will not vaccinate. It should lay off the blame to Delta. It should dog whistle about family gatherings in the south-west. It should be against border closures. And it should be for getting Delta out to the regions, to Victoria, to Tasmania, to South Australia and to the ACT. Finally, it should follow the best medical advice except when that medical advice does not suit it.
    That should just about cover it.

  10. Another issue with respect to compliance is the variability in the messaging. Gaslighting may be useful politically, but it is not useful for public health. Victoria has kept restrictions the same for recent Lockdowns. This has resulted in a more rapid and heightened compliance to restrictions.

    Get the messaging right.

  13. Hugo

    I get that many argue that the government should have locked down sooner, or harder, but that is in essence a retrospect argument, one that doesn’t really help us now.

    That’s fair enough.

    what exactly would you have the NSW government do right now?

    NSW has, in effect, approached close to, or is approaching, a similar position as other states. NSW has just gotten there slower, and with more pain. That means that much of what they’re doing now isn’t wrong as such. The question narrows down to what’s left that’s different?

    One thing is this opt-in LGA by LGA business where the virus keeps jumping to new areas and the government only introduces restrictions in each area as a reactive measure. At this point, which areas in or around Sydney haven’t yet been nominated? Maybe there are none left in which case I guess I all I can is say “finally, they’ve gotten there” 😛

    Another thing is that their advice to the public is overly complicated. It’s overly complicated *because* they are trying to differentiate between what’s happening in different areas. It sometimes seems they are also trying to optimise down to individual businesses.

    Trying to broadcast so many different messages to a diverse group is asking for trouble. Messages from the government don’t get out as fast (not everyone is watching all the time) as you’d expect (or like). The more complicated it is, the slower it gets out.

    Alternatively, the easier it is to repeat and the more broadly it applies, then the less work people have to do to figure out if it applies to them and more importantly to those around them, and the faster it will spread. (and the less likely people are going to throw their hands up in the air and go “I have no clue, let’s just do whatever”)

    There’s no government in Australia trying to emulate the “let it rip” approach of those in Texas or Florida, despite some of the hyperbolic claims by some on here.

    Sorry, but that’s what many in her party were publicly suggesting. I didn’t imagine that up with my fellow echo afficianados on PB. I imagined it up after listening to what those politicians were saying through the media. Then I came and complained about it on PB. 😛

    Two weeks into the current outbreak and they were already talking of giving up. Only two weeks. Thank the great spaghetti monster we have Berejiklian, as opposed to those other fools, in charge. Though some would argue that’s a low bar for her to pass, I’d still take her over them any day.

  14. Anika Wells MP
    @AnikaWells

    Lots of passion for public debate on conspiracy and free speech for George Christensen coming from Government MPs who have voted more than 179 times in support of gag motions that prevent non-government members from speaking in the House.

    By their actions, not their words, so shall you know them.


  16. ‘Hugoaugogo says:
    Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:28 pm

    So here’s a question for the hard-liners: what exactly would you have the NSW government do right now?

    It is not a hard question to answer, when we didn’t know what to do Victoria tried the local government lock down and all the nonsense NSW is doing and relearning old lessons.

    The lessen cost Victoria a load of money, NSW is repeating the errors. Victoria found the solution. The playbook is now written.

  17. The Drum…
    Contact traders used to get to 100% of cases within a day.. it’s now down to 73% within a day.

    20% of cases are outside of lockdown LGAs &increasing.
    The curve isn’t flattening
    Vaccines were taken from Walgett to inoculate year 12’s in Sydney, they now need to be rushed back there.( who’s bright idea was it to take them in the first place .. a vulnerable community!)

    So depressing I stopped watching … Hazzard..” people of other backgrounds” was the last straw..

  18. Hugo

    “The main problem with the current outbreak is that it’s taken hold among poorer communities”

    That’s not just this covid outbreak. It’s EVERY covid outbreak. Here, and around the world.

    In fact, it’s EVERY pandemic, going back to the Black Death. Poorer communities are always hit the hardest. This was a point raised by Norman Swan earlier today, but I’d heard it (and read it) many times before.

  19. DisplayName @ Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:53 pm

    It would be reasonable to say that floating the thought bubble of easing restrictions at 50% cover is tantamount to giving up. It certainly is inconsistent with an elimination strategy.

  22. Hugoaugogo @ #2686 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 8:28 pm

    So here’s a question for the hard-liners: what exactly would you have the NSW government do right now? I’ve heard about the “ring of steel” suggestion, curfews, and masks outdoors all the time, but the evidence on the usefulness of any these is mixed at best, and therefore unlikely to be a major game changer.

    The “ring of steel” would not have helped Sydney. But it would have helped the regions, and without hurting Sydney much at all. That Gladys did not do it tells us what she really thinks of anyone outside Sydney.

    However, mask mandates and curfew would have helped Sydney.

    But Gladys did not do that either.

    It is hard to understand what Gladys thought she was doing. And for whom.

  23. Kakuru @ Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:56 pm

    Agreed. The majority of infections enjoy poverty. Something our society should reflect on.

  26. Griff

    It would be reasonable to say that floating the thought bubble of easing restrictions at 50% cover is tantamount to giving up. It certainly is inconsistent with an elimination strategy.

    Yes, that’s a more recent concern. Why 50%? Is that like an “early mark”. Who knows.

  27. Player One
    As Norman Swan said on the Drum.. if the curve isn’t flattening the lockdown has to be made harder till it does..

    simple & painful there is no other way other than vaccination rates getting to 70/80% Gladys is full of it to the point of overflowing

  30. Griff @ #2246 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 8:57 pm

    DisplayName @ Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:53 pm

    It would be reasonable to say that floating the thought bubble of easing restrictions at 50% cover is tantamount to giving up. It certainly is inconsistent with an elimination strategy.

    And the reason why has never been adequately explained to my satisfaction. We hear it from the Premier as a fait accompli, with that tactic employed of, if the leader of the State says it, it must be correct…for some reason.

  32. Yep, you lockdown to protect *other* areas than where the virus has been observed, especially those less well equipped to cope with an escalation.

    Yes, that’s a retrospective. However, I think it’s only fair to point out that many were saying this *before* the current outbreak, and even before Victoria last year. So we could reasonably argue that it was also foresight. Foresight told us that NSW’s strategy would lead to retrospective complaints of this sort :P. Foresight also told us that an early lockdown would lead to complaints of “but muh freedum” or “but the economy”. If anyone can bother trawling back through early posts on the pandemic, which I certainly can’t :P.

    It’s not like we looked at NSW and suddenly decided on it. If we’ve been echoing, then we’ve been echoing for a long long while :P. It’s not a specifically anti NSW thing. Though there’s certainly some NSW-specific frustration that they’d follow such a predictable and avoidable path.

  33. Shellbell says:
    Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 9:10 pm
    Channel 9 tower down, Meriton apartment block up

    Residents won’t be able to tell the difference

  34. The other issue is that the federal government’s job assistance should apply early, to give state governments the option to adopt harsher restrictions with support if they need it, not offered as a late contingency to discourage state governments adopting harsher restrictions.

  35. Where are they broadcasting from now?

    No idea – but 200 metre high transmission towers are no longer required with today’s technology.

  37. I’m glad Canavan appeared on Q+A tonight as it highlighted what a tool he is. He was against companies such as Harvey Norman repaying Jobkeeper overpayments but okay with hounding individuals; he was not moved by the IPCC report; and, he defended the right of Christensen to spruik his C.19 claptrap. I put it down to the strength of the north-Queensland sun, Speers giving him (Canavan) more than enough rope.

  40. Mavis

    He was against companies such as Harvey Norman repaying Jobkeeper overpayments but okay with hounding individuals

    Given this and robodebt, it seems the Coalition believe that it’s in the Australian character to kick people when they’re down, so they’re onto a vote winner, or at the very least its not a vote loser. I certainly hope they’re wrong, but then they’ve won the last three elections so maybe they know better.

  42. On 7.30 tonight Frewen mentioned Flying Doctor Service 3 or 4 times, it seemed at the time this was to do with vaccine supply… it may really have been because Walget has only 1 ICU bed.

  47. frednk:

    Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 9:55 pm

    [‘Mavis

    You must have a strong constitution to have watched Canavan through to the end.’]

    I must admit to having thoughts of throwing an ashtray at the TV but I saw it out, and so I hope did
    many others though the ratings have dropped off significantly since Tony Jones departed.

    ______________________________

    DisplayName:

    Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 9:56 pm

    [‘Given this and robodebt, it seems the Coalition believe that it’s in the Australian character to kick people when they’re down, so they’re onto a vote winner…’]

    I think many of the small majority that voted for this mob in 2019 now regret their decision, and recent polling supports this contention, the average Aussie
    concerned by the mass-scale corruption of this government, the shabby way it treats battlers.

  48. C@t

    “I weep as I see America voting to give its citizens high quality Broadband Internet for all.”

    Its a good start, but its still a compromise and the big lobbyists are doing their best to stop it happening.

  49. Hugoaugogo @ #2688 Thursday, August 12th, 2021 – 8:28 pm

    So here’s a question for the hard-liners: what exactly would you have the NSW government do right now?

    1. Ring of steel
    2. Travel allowance reduced to 5km
    3. Border shut to all other states
    4. No more “singles bubble”
    5. Clearly and more narrowly define “essential business”
    6. Ensure everything not on that list is shut
    7. Apply the same rules to every LGA within the ring of steel
    8. Do enforcement to ensure the rules are followed (equally, everywhere)
    9. Stop scapegoating poor and migrant communities
    10. Profuse apology
    11. Public statement that the goal is zero local covid transmission, and that lockdown will continue until it’s achieved

    Simples. 🙂

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