The latest Newspoll from The Australian finds Labor retaining its 53-47 two-party lead from three weeks ago, with both major parties steady on 39% of the primary vote, the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. Scott Morrison has fallen into net negative approval for the first time since March last year, being down four points on approval to 47% and up the same amount on disapproval to 49%. Anthony Albanese is steady on both approval and disapproval at 38% and 46% respectively, and has narrowed Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister from 51-33 to 49-36.
Also included are ratings for Scott Morrison’s handling of coronavirus in general, on which his good rating is down four points since last time to 48% and his poor rating is up four to 49%, and of the vaccine rollout in particular, on which he is down two to 38% and up two to 59%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.
All Morrison had to do was support the people of Australia, and support the states in supporting the people of Australia. That was it.
Sceptic at 9:35 pm
Gladys would be getting lined up. Sydney outbreak has to be all her fault otherwise Scotty’s lax vax effort may see him blamed.
Maybe the thickheads in Liberal Land are realising that Murdoch Muppet Morrison is an abject failure just like at every job he has ever had.
Scotty’s handling of covid-Badly pulls ahead of Well 49-48
It’s fascinating – despite the often deranged obsession here with this – despite everything, Morrison is still the Libs best chance of winning. Dutton is clearly the only alternative with a profile, but he’s still personally noxious.
The whole National Cabinet central command and control approach has been a legitimate fuck up. Yes, it gave him the chance to claim credit – but it’s laid so much of the blame in his lap.
Long story, short… Morrison will be leader to the election.
I’ve been thinking for a while that Newspoll is using some sort of moving average on its poll to smooth the series. PV for both parties same as last time, + 1 for Greens, -1 for other. I;m guessing it was probably just under 53 for Labor last time, just over 53 this time.
Kevin Bonham had a post a few months ago saying that just before a change in government, the Oppostion shows a sustained large 2PP (ie more than 52-48) at least 6 months out from the election. Hopefully this is the start.
The poll hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack:
https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2022
Our great LNP are leading 54/46 in the latest newspoll and Scott Morrison is leading the PM Rating by 60/39
Steve,
RE AZ and Pfizer.
Something is better than nothing, we have a populace that is action oriented, it’s a fail that people get to delay a vaccine out of misplaced fear. COVID with AZ is better than COVID without AZ.
I know delta is worse, but it’s a pandemic for the vaccinated atm. So I’d back in my point. the big fail has been letting people disparage AZ as its more protection than waiting.
Frydbrain is Morrisons only replacement for me. Scraping the barrel bottom.
“He had two jobs” laid the groundwork for this.
Nice strategy
The knives might be out soon for the Engadine Trouser Spoiler.
LVTs lovechild is in the house.
Wayne,
I like your old stuff better than your new stuff 🙂
Edit: to accurately quote The Gurg
‘ I went to a party with 14 other vaccinated people; 11 of us got COVID ‘-
https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-0804-breakthrough-covid-20210803-t32trfpiwzdf5okfar45f64whi-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
William it does though cement the trajectories.
lol – I actually forgot about Frydenberg.
Says a lot.
I’ll just add, from the younger people I’ve spoken too recently labor walking away from reform on housing is a big hit.
I think things will come into focus closer to an election. Ie what’s in it form me to switch etc?
Quasar
Sounds like a Wayne story.
The Dutton/Frydenburg Dream Team?
What could possibly go wrong…
South
Even younger people are delusional too regarding negative gearing.
ELECTION NOW ..!!
They are are even Morrison supporters in Japan:
Protesters arrive with the dumbest message
A group of protesters have marred the closing ceremony in Tokyo, gathering outside the Olympic Stadium with a bizarre message.
One hour ahead of the closing ceremony, Japanese locals were heard chanting, “Cancel the Olympics!”
Police quickly grouped around the protesters, with media also flooding the scene.
The protest seemed relatively pointless considering the Games are essentially over, with the final event ending several hours earlier.
South, don’t suggest touching NG now!
Get in power.
Get some limits on franking credits in place.
Move the CGT discount back to cumulative inflation.
Reassess.
47:53 and an election within a year. If this can hold to Xmas, the ALP are surely in a great position.
Always happy to be surprised on the upside. 🙂
Now I KNOW we are going to lose the federal election! 😆
The Mudraking Media will pull out all the stops to take Labor down. Again.
steve davis @ #24 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 7:52 pm
Maybe they thought it was just about to start. 😆
south @ #20 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 9:47 pm
south, do you EVER speak to people, young or old, that you don’t infect with your pov!?! Anyway, what sort of ‘young person’ can even afford to THINK about Negative Gearing? Or if they are ‘Aspirational’ and thinking about NG, they’ll either vote for The Greens or the Liberals.
Wayne
Lovely to see you.
You usually only appear around election time.
Can we expect a Federal election soon?
Doing a decent job on Covid may be an Olympic medal booster. NZ, Australian and Japanese athletes have all had record medal hauls.
Maybe they could give out gold medals for those who have the vaccine?
I’ve missed you, Wayne.
steve davis @ #15 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 9:45 pm
Que?
🙂
Asha
Hes due back at the asylum at 11pm.
Note the theory that crises are supposed to be good for incumbents, as in WA and QLD (and probably Victoria). That puts in perspective just how bad the last two polls have been for Mr Morrison: he’s heading back to where he was at the time of the bushfires. And the bigger problem for him is that Covid is going to be the lead item on every news bulletin for the next two or three months at least. He will have stuff-all chance of changing the subject.
Recall when the Whitlam Government was tottering in 1974-5, he made some ministerial changes which some thought at the time might have helped: Hayden replacing Cairns, Jim McClelland coming in. But it’s hard to see how Mr Morrison would now have the authority to replace the deadwood with which his ministry is filled, and there’s hardly much talent waiting on the backbenches anyway.
I am going to go for the usual cautious reminder not to start measuring the drapes – that the LNP are seasoned experts at clinging on to power at all costs and, regardless of polling numbers, the next election will be a tough fight.
That said, these numbers continue to boost my hope for the next election.
From a granular perspective, I believe that the personal is the political and people in their own lives are finding themselves mighty inconvenienced by Morrison’s SNAFU approach.
C@t
Love it!! And theres LVT behind him diving into the septic tank.
C@tmomma,
The young people I speak to talk about NG in the context of those who have got something being able to get more of it. Vs them, who are being outrun by growth in prices and have nothing.
Anyway, good result for labor. But there does need to be a message soon about enticing people to engage labor. You can’t just wait your turn.
Note the theory that crises are supposed to be good for incumbents, as in WA and QLD (and probably Victoria).
… Because they were competent.
Steve Davis @9.47
Lol!
south @ #41 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:06 pm
Well, you should inform those young people that Labor took a policy to the last election to help them. Thing was, selfish people voted for the Coalition. And there’s your problem, right there.
I honestly think that Morrison’s too cute by half move to slide Christian Porter back into his old job likely upset women voters all over again.
Evening all. Like BK I think this is more than status quo. Morrison’s personal rating has only 4% uncommitted. There is not much prospect of him coming back.
Albanese will conversely be comforted by the undecided % in PPM being 15%.
NSW has two big negatives for Morrison. Firstly it exposes his failures on vaccine and quarantine. Secondly every week in lockdown is knocking down national GDP, so there will be no great economic manager schtick to run on either.
rhwombat
“Excellent summary, but (necessarily) based on two assumptions which I don’t think we can assume: (1) that the vaccines used reduce shedding/transmission in populations as efficiently as they produce antibody responses in individuals & (2) that the aggregated population risk reflects the risk in all sub-populations. Neither are likely with Delta in Sydney at present. Any real vaccine effect will take > months to be evident, even if they actually do have a significant effect on a population level – which I don’t think has been demonstrated in any population yet. Vaccines help, but are not the answer that our political class wish. It’s personal protection, snap lockdowns, public funding of people not profits and real ITTQ for as far as my eye can see.”
The assumption that a vaccine reduces retransmission at the same rate as it prevents symptomatic infection is a pretty loose one, but its the best I can use in the absence of something better.
When do we get real world data (at least inferential) on actual reduction on retransmission? And the other problem here is, what the the heck did the Doherty people use for this (presumably vital) factor? I can’t see them having enough overseas data to get a proper handle on this anyhow.
As for sub-populations. My hope is that the biggest spreaders – the 20s and 30s – can be encouraged to vaccinate at an even higher rate and this of course would benefit the population as a whole. And of course this is the age group that would also be most easily persuaded to vaccinate by the simple expedient of no-vax equals no access to social venues.
Agree with your other points.
C@tmomma,
I will remind them they are at fault next time i see them.
sigh.
Anyway, good luck expanding the ALP vote there.
William
To what extent did pollsters like Newspoll adjust their calculations to compensate for the last election and based on what assumptions? I’m just wondering if those assumptions still apply (as much as they did).
The government may still hold onto power come polling day. But I am becoming increasingly confident that, one way or another, Morrison’s days are numbered.
I’d be wary about getting too excited about the prospect of him being rolled, however. We might scoff at the idea of Prime Minister Frydenberg or Prime Minister Dutton being a viable alternative, but don’t forget how many of us were similar dismissive when one Scott Morrison took the top job.