Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor scores its biggest two-party poll lead of the term from Roy Morgan, which records a particularly big blowout in Victoria.

Roy Morgan published results on Wednesday of its latest federal voting intention polling, as it does from time to time, in this case combining surveys conducted over the past two weekends from 2709 respondents. This shows Labor with its biggest lead of the term, from this or any other pollster: 53.5-46.5, out from 52.5-47.5 in the poll it published in mid-July. The Coalition and Labor are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively being down two and steady, while the Greens are up a point to 12.5% and One Nation is steady on 3%. These numbers have ticked the BludgerTrack poll aggregate a further 0.4% to Labor, who are now credited with a lead 52.4-47.6.

State breakdowns of the two-party vote are provided, showing Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (for a swing in their favour of about 3% compared with the 2019 election), 59.5-40.5 in Victoria (a swing of about 6.5%, and three points stronger for Labor than the previous poll), 55.5-44.5 in South Australia (a swing of about 5%) and 54-46 in Tasmania (a 2% swing to the Liberals, although the sample size here is particularly flimsy), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%) and 51.5-48.5 in Western Australia (a swing of about 4%, which is a fair bit more modest than other polling from WA recently).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,778 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 36
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  3. mundo
    your resort to personal abuse does your cred no good at all.
    You are entirely and consistently and snarky anti-Labor.
    You never make a single positive comment about Labor.
    Join the dots.

  7. Bushfire Bill at 10:54 am

    I was gratified to see in Wayne Swan’s op-ed today that he recognizes the fashion for denigrating any and all politicians as corrupt for what it is: an unfortunately largely successful attempt to destroy trust in what he terms “the political class

    Instead of pointing at we peasants as being the problem Wayne should look towards his class, the ‘political class’. The very real Rortarama and Rortapalooza being indulged in by our ‘political class’ is what is destroying trust , it is the problem. ‘They’ need to fix it.

  11. boerwar @ #120 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 9:00 am

    BiTJ
    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Friday, August 6, 2021 at 10:58 am

    boerwar @ #105 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:46 am

    BiTJ
    First principles.
    Half of Australia is locked down because international arrivals are vectors.

    So, that is an issue for quarantine, and nothing to do with the nationality of arrivals.
    …’
    ___________________________________
    Bullshit. It is the expats, including those duals who are gaming the system, who are screaming their heads off.

    How does the nationality of an arrival have any relationship to whether they are infected?

    Are expats more susceptible to catching the virus than another person in their country of residence?

  12. boerwar says:
    Friday, August 6, 2021 at 11:13 am
    Chant just saying that if you see someone else in a shop do not go into the shop.
    FMD.
    Shut the shops!

    —————————-

    Incompetence by Gladys and her cronies

  13. Who knew that Gladys was actually the worst premier in this federation.

    Cough cough………

    I know spray scampered and oakeshott country has disappeared.

    But I would really like to know what they are thinking now.

  16. U.S. COVID update: Cases and hospitalizations continue to rise

    – New cases: 123,821 ………………………… – New deaths: 566

    – In hospital: 61,084 (+2,547)
    – In ICU: 15,001 (+484)

    631,860 total deaths now

  21. D&M,

    p.s A study some years ago showed that kids who come from higher socio-economic backgrounds do about 10 points better in the HSC than their compatriots. This is was evaluated by comparing their performance after two years of university – the poor kids did relatively better.

    Good for the poor kids who get into their degree of choice, but it was relatively harder for them to get in in the first place. Many would have missed out.

    It’s a relatively straightforward statistical test to run, if you know what to do (instrumental variables or GMM with a judicious selection of exogenous variables).

    I had a student complete a project on a similar topic. He was attempting to determine (i.e. causality) the educational value a student gets for every dollar invested in their schooling, looking at the effect that paying more for schooling may have upon student academic achievement. We found evidence that paying more for schooling is positively correlated with student success at school, but this effect was very small in comparison to the various demographic and school specific variables that we could account for from the available data. The main conclusion of the study was that paying more for tuition was capable of only very small improvements to a high-school students’ final marks (based on Victorian data, i.e. VCE).

  22. boerwar @ #153 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 11:13 am

    mundo
    your resort of personal abuse does your cred no good at all.
    You are entirely and consistently and snarky anti-Labor.
    You never make a single positive comment about Labor.
    Join the dots.

    Err, you started it Dickhead. I find ‘Liberal concern troll’ offensive.
    You can’t tell the difference between anti-Labor and a hole in the ground.
    Join those dots, idiot.
    If you get another three year dose of Scotty you’ll only have yourself to blame.

  23. A reminder Labor blame every lockdown on Morrison’s vaccine failure.

    As BW says every single thing they touch.

    Federal Labor has to be the freedom party preaching vaccination.

    Choose Berejikilian or Morrison.

    Edit: Even if that means you are getting praise from Alan Jones and Pauline Hanson. Just do it with Labor values not theirs.

  24. Issue with Morrison’s leadership approval ‘bounceback’ is that it overlapped with the start of COVID, when pollies started to get a rally around the flag effect. He won’t necessarily get another external event to distract people from his own incompetence, even allowing for more people now noticing the pattern.

  28. Victoria @ #NaN Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 11:15 am

    Who knew that Gladys was actually the worst premier in this federation.

    Cough cough………

    I know spray scampered and oakeshott country has disappeared.

    But I would really like to know what they are thinking now.

    Yes, Spray’s snark and Liberal boosterism was a lot more subtle than Oakeshott Country’s but it was there nonetheless.

    I reckon, in the true Liberal tradition of just waiting till things blow over and start looking better, they’ll reappear to boost Gladys up again and say what a great job she did managing things. 😀

    Until then, all we have is Lars von Liberal’s delusional posts. 😆

  30. ‘mundo says:
    Friday, August 6, 2021 at 11:18 am

    boerwar @ #153 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 11:13 am

    mundo
    your resort of personal abuse does your cred no good at all.
    You are entirely and consistently and snarky anti-Labor.
    You never make a single positive comment about Labor.
    Join the dots.

    Err, you started it Dickhead. I find ‘Liberal concern troll’ offensive.
    You can’t tell the difference between anti-Labor and a hole in the ground.
    Join those dots, idiot.
    If you get another three year dose of Scotty you’ll only have yourself to blame.’
    _______________________________
    Tsk, tsk. More personal abuse.
    You should be proud of being a Liberal concern troll. Wear it like a badge of pride.
    Your pissing on Labor with your every single post is a gift to Morrison.

  33. ItzaDream at 11:10 am

    Gladys didn’t even bother to acknowledge the dead. How’s that for nonchalance.

    Compare and contrast with Ardern and Bloomfield. They had low numbers of deaths , as does NSW currently and every time a person died a vignette of their life was given, a mini eulogy if you will, during the daily briefing They were made ‘real’, a real person had died rather than ‘four deaths today’. Done with permission and assistance of the rellies I might add .

  36. Covid cases in Sydney reminds me of getting ready for a flood as the time available dwindles away.
    Sydney you are being badly served by Berejiklian are one level and Morrison at another level
    Diabolical.
    Unfortunately everyone in Australia is suffering from the leaderless shamozzle expanding daily.
    Is their no one with integrity, honesty and concern, well connected enough to force some authentic decision making to occur.
    Liberal voters should be cringing with embarrassment!

  37. Dandy Murray @ #NaN Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 11:17 am

    D&M,

    p.s A study some years ago showed that kids who come from higher socio-economic backgrounds do about 10 points better in the HSC than their compatriots. This is was evaluated by comparing their performance after two years of university – the poor kids did relatively better.

    Good for the poor kids who get into their degree of choice, but it was relatively harder for them to get in in the first place. Many would have missed out.

    It’s a relatively straightforward statistical test to run, if you know what to do (instrumental variables or GMM with a judicious selection of exogenous variables).

    I had a student complete a project on a similar topic. He was attempting to determine (i.e. causality) the educational value a student gets for every dollar invested in their schooling, looking at the effect that paying more for schooling may have upon student academic achievement. We found evidence that paying more for schooling is positively correlated with student success at school, but this effect was very small in comparison to the various demographic and school specific variables that we could account for from the available data. The main conclusion of the study was that paying more for tuition was capable of only very small improvements to a high-school students’ final marks (based on Victorian data, i.e. VCE).

    DM,
    I think they also found that Public Selective High Schools produced the best outcomes for their students. However, that seems like a statement of the bleeding obvious I guess. Also, that Private School’s best offering was wrt the networks you established that benefit you in the real world after school.

  42. Did I really hear Gladys say 2022 is going to be better?

    Having given up on the present she’s flogging us the future. BACK IN BLACK anybody?

  43. “I don’t know how he did it, but he did it: BW manages to get under mundo’s thick skin.”

    He’s a boer-ing machine!

    I’ll see myself out.

  44. Apologies and sympathies from Dr Chant. Well said. The first apology of the outbreak I think. Don’t hold your breath to hear one from the political class.

  49. These are questions the ministers should be taking. What cowards leaving Dr Chant to face these political decision-making questions.

  50. Player Onesays:
    Friday, August 6, 2021 at 11:25 am

    mundo

    boerwar can keep this up forever. Don’t fall into his trap.

    Judge Mundo by those who comfort him.

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